GCARD 2, Punta Del Este, 29/10 to 1/11Regional scenarios: potential to influence policy                                   ...
2 • 3/21/11 Regional scenarios in EA: CCAFS, SID, PANOS         • CCAFS and ECI Oxford are organizing regional socio-     ...
3 • 3/21/11 Regional scenarios in EA: CCAFS, SID, PANOS         • Socio-economic scenarios explore future uncertainties   ...
4 • 3/21/11                 Industrious ants   Regional integration   Herd of Zebra Proactive                             ...
5 • 3/21/11 Regional scenarios in EA: CCAFS, SID, PANOS         •Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and  ...
Planning with scenarios6 • 3/21/11                  Scenarios as diverse future contexts  Decision makers inthe present   ...
7 • 3/21/11 Regional scenarios in EA: CCAFS, SID, PANOS         •Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and  ...
Results so far8 • 3/21/11• Participants report strong  learning through scenarios and  back-casting• Resulting plans tackl...
Challenges9 • 3/21/11• Plans have yet to become reality• The most senior policy makers  have yet to be involved –  worksho...
Way forward and role of10 • 3/21/11SID and PANOS• SID: continual stakeholder  engagement• Organizing meetings and contact ...
Thank you11 • 3/21/11           KATINDI EMAIL INSERT           CGARD brief: No foresight, no food? http           ://www.e...
Features of the process12 • 3/21/11        • Duration: about 2.5 years, shorter          in new regions        • By CCAFS/...
13Beef production: historic and   • 3/21/11scenarios in 1000 Mtons
14 • 3/21/11Equitable partnerships        • Non-state actors workshop:          predominantly civil society          inclu...
Call to action15 • 3/21/11          • Shifting the global role of researchers in multi-            stakeholder foresight s...
Thank you16 • 3/21/11           Joost.vervoort@eci.ox.ac.uk           CGARD brief: No foresight, no food?           http:/...
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Regional scenarios: potential to influence policy - Katindi - GCARD Uruguay

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CCAFS and ECI Oxford are organizing regional socio-economic scenarios in CCAFS regions to build regional capacity for governance: improving food security, environments and livelihoods across sectors under uncertainty.

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Regional scenarios: potential to influence policy - Katindi - GCARD Uruguay

  1. 1. GCARD 2, Punta Del Este, 29/10 to 1/11Regional scenarios: potential to influence policy Katindi Sivi Njonjo, program director Kenya, Society for International Development
  2. 2. 2 • 3/21/11 Regional scenarios in EA: CCAFS, SID, PANOS • CCAFS and ECI Oxford are organizing regional socio- economic scenarios in CCAFS regions to build regional capacity for governance: improving food security, environments and livelihoods across sectors under uncertainty • Society for International Development • Panos • CCAFS, SID, PANOS have facilitated the development and use of regional scenarios with regional stakeholders across sectors in East Africa
  3. 3. 3 • 3/21/11 Regional scenarios in EA: CCAFS, SID, PANOS • Socio-economic scenarios explore future uncertainties for the region in terms of their effects on food security, environments and livelihoods • Stakeholder-driven scenarios combined with modelling; complementary to climate scenarios • SID: inter-sectoral engagement partner and facilitators with long regional scenarios experience; civil society perspective • PANOS: documenting and disseminating the process; providing media perspective
  4. 4. 4 • 3/21/11 Industrious ants Regional integration Herd of Zebra Proactive Reactivegovernance governance Lone Leopards Fragmented status quo Sleeping Lions
  5. 5. 5 • 3/21/11 Regional scenarios in EA: CCAFS, SID, PANOS •Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and some private sector actors; policy workshop with senior policy advisors •Choice to go for technical advisors to get in-depth perspective – potential to influence policy
  6. 6. Planning with scenarios6 • 3/21/11 Scenarios as diverse future contexts Decision makers inthe present Shared future goals What challenges and opportunities do we face in each scenario context as we try to get from our desired futures to the present?
  7. 7. 7 • 3/21/11 Regional scenarios in EA: CCAFS, SID, PANOS •Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and some private sector actors; policy workshop with senior policy advisors •Choice to go for technical advisors to get in-depth perspective – potential to influence policy
  8. 8. Results so far8 • 3/21/11• Participants report strong learning through scenarios and back-casting• Resulting plans tackle CSO and FO voices in regional governance• Plans are specifically focused on building regional capacity• EAC officer to budget meeting: non-state actor partnerships are essential
  9. 9. Challenges9 • 3/21/11• Plans have yet to become reality• The most senior policy makers have yet to be involved – workshop format might not be most appropriate• We have yet to track impact of people taking the work back to their ministries• Competing interests in ministries; political reality competing with practicality of solutions• High-level private sector actors have yet to be engaged
  10. 10. Way forward and role of10 • 3/21/11SID and PANOS• SID: continual stakeholder engagement• Organizing meetings and contact between smaller groups of state and non-state partners specifically related to workshop plans• Engaging wider stakeholders: policy makers, private sector• PANOS: dissemination, visibility, engagement on a broader scale through radio, video, newspapers, social media
  11. 11. Thank you11 • 3/21/11 KATINDI EMAIL INSERT CGARD brief: No foresight, no food? http ://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/files/Foresight%20Briefs/Jo
  12. 12. Features of the process12 • 3/21/11 • Duration: about 2.5 years, shorter in new regions • By CCAFS/University of Oxford and local partners Society for International Development and PANOS • Involved around 100 stakeholders from all sectors at a regional level, including EAC • Cost: around 600K USD in EA • Funded by CCAFS, new model involves other sponsors
  13. 13. 13Beef production: historic and • 3/21/11scenarios in 1000 Mtons
  14. 14. 14 • 3/21/11Equitable partnerships • Non-state actors workshop: predominantly civil society including East African Farmers Federation and others • Plans for engagement with state actors under different scenarios were developed and partnerships proposed • Later, in policy workshop with the EAC, the role of farmers federations and specifically the EAFF came up as a key role to support by governments
  15. 15. Call to action15 • 3/21/11 • Shifting the global role of researchers in multi- stakeholder foresight spaces • Inclusive and equitable regional capacity for strategy development needs to be supported on a continual basis to develop partnerships and get to action • Supporting experienced local (e.g. regional) CSOs with a relatively neutral position, experience in the methodology and a good network to be the focal point for partnerships
  16. 16. Thank you16 • 3/21/11 Joost.vervoort@eci.ox.ac.uk CGARD brief: No foresight, no food? http://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/files/Foresight %20Briefs/Joost_Vervoort_Brief03_Final.pdf Chaudhury M, Vervoort J, Kristjanson P, Ericksen P, Ainslie A (2012) Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa. Regional Environmental Change:1-10

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