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Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective
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Challenges to Sustainable Potato Production in a changing climate: A research perspective

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  • 1. Challenges to sustainable potato production in a changing climate: A research
    perspective
    R. Quiroz, A. Posadas, C. Yarlequé, H. Heidinger, C. Barreda, R. Raymundo, C.Gavilán, M. Carbajal, H. Loayza, H. Tonnang, J. Kroschel, G. Forbes, and S. De Haan.
    Centro Internacional de la Papa
    August 15th 2011
    Conference presented at the 95th Annual Meeting of the Potato Association of America. Wilmington NC Symposium - Breeding for Sustainable Production in a Changing Climate
    Understanding the Physiological Basis of Genetic and Environmental Interactions
  • 2. Contents

    Potato in variable environments

    CC-Potato -
    Literature findings

    Summary of perceived research gaps

    Addressing research gaps at CIP
    • Farmers adaptation strategies in theAndes and tradeoffs
  • 3.
  • 4. Temperature
  • 5. Water & Nutrients
  • 6. Light & CO2
  • 7. Where is potatoProduced?
  • 8. Potato acreage
  • 9.
  • 10. It is about climate change w/oforgetting climate variability
  • 11. The
    concentration
    of
    GHGs
    is rising
    Long-term
    implications
    for
    the
    climate
    and
    for
    crop
    suitability
  • 12. Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing seasonis currently < 30°C but will flip to > 30°C by 2050
    Areas where rainfall per day decreases by 10 % or more between 2000 and 2050.
  • 13. DIRECT EFFECTS:
    elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops
    Leaf Processes
    Increased CO2
    •When exposed for a short period -substantial increment
    Photosynthetic rate
    •Down regulation when grown continuouslyin elevated CO2
    •Decreases at elevated CO2
    Stomatalconductance
    •Expected to increase WUE
    •Contradictory responses, probablyassociated to cultivar differences
    Leaf Protein,
    Chlorophyll contentStarch / CHO content
    •Increases with long-term exposure toelevated CO2
  • 14. Effect of elevated levels of Carbon dioxide on potato crops
    Process
    Increased CO2
    Changes in plant growthand development
    •Stimulates both above-and below-groundbiomass (early growing season)
    •Period of active plant growth endsprematurely
    •Senescence begins earlier
    •Limited growth rates towards the end ofgrowing season
    •Tuber yield stimulated and magnitudevaries with cultivar and growing conditions
    Effects on crop yield
    •Increase number of tubers
    Effects on tuber quality
    •Increased tuber DM & starch content
    •Reduced tuber N and glycoalkaloidcontent
  • 15. Effect of elevated Temperature on potato crops
    •Elevated temperatures seems to reduce tuber initiation
    •Temperature above the desired ones reduce the photosynthetic efficiency, thusreducing potato growth
    •High temperature may also reduce the ability of the plant to translocate
    photosynthates
    to the tuber
    •Elevated temperature increases DM partitioning to stems but reduces root,
    stolon, tuber and total DM and total tuber number
    •Offset the CO2
    fertilization effect
  • 16. INDIRECT EFFECT: potato pests and diseases
    Baseline
    w/o crop protection 75 % of
    potato production today would be
    lost to pests
    Major factors likely toinfluence plant diseaseseverity and spread
    •increased CO2,
    •heavy and unseasonal rains,
    •increased humidity, droughtsand hurricanes,
    •warmer winter temperatures
  • 17. •alterations in the geographical distribution ofspecies,
    Changes in the
    climate are expectedto produce
    •increase overwintering,
    •changes in population growth rates,
    •increase the number of generations perseason,
    •extension of the development season,
    •changes in crop-pest synchrony,
    •increase risk of invasion by migration pests,
    •may cause the appearance of newthermophilicspecies,
    •changes in the physiology ofpathogens/insects and host plants,
    •changes in host plants resistance toinfection/infestation,
    •critical temperature/infection threshold,
    •modification of pathogen aggressivenessand/or host susceptibility
  • 18. Knowledge gaps and research priorities:
    Experimental analyses and model simulation to quantify:
    - Effect of increasing CO2 on crops other than cereals, includingthose of importance to the rural poor (e.g. local potato cultivars)
    - Interaction between crop yields and other factors of production(pests, diseases, weeds, etc.) under climate change conditions
    - Impact of climate extreme events on crop yields
    Reduce and quantify uncertainties of future prediction:
    - Generate reliable data to test GCMs through hindcasting
    - Improve the spatial resolution of climate predictions
    Develop tools to evaluate adaptation strategies at differentspatial levels (cropping, farm, region)
    -
    Link climate-pathogens-hosts interactions across scales
    Evaluate actual applicability of adaptation strategies:
    -
    Quality of seeds
    -
    Cost and benefits (economic, social, environmental)
    -
    Role of new technology (e.g. biotechnologies, fertilizers, etc.)
    -
    Tradeoffs analyses
  • 19. CIP advances on potato modeling
    y S. Tuberosum - tuberosum - andigena y S. Ajanhuiri y S. juzepczukii
    Light
    Light
    Interception
    )
    DM
    LUE (PAR—
    Photosynthetic Apparatus
    Kg DM.ha¨¹.d ¨¹
    T GC LAI
    Light Reflectance
    Tubers
    Roots
    Stems
    Leaves
  • 20. Improving model inputs
    G
    B R
    NIR
  • 21. RS data for helping select tolerant potato cultivars
    NDVI
    0-0.1
    0.1-0.2
    0.2-0.3
    0.3-0.4
    0.4-0.5
    0.5-0.6
    Fresh yield (t/ha) <16
    >24
    60
    60
    50
    50
    40
    40
    30
    30
    20
    20
    10
    10
    0
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10 1112
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9 101112
    Plot
    Plot
    Normal irrigation
    Deficit irrigation
    Terminal drought
  • 22. MRI-
    Potato tuber scanning
  • 23. MRI -potato root scanning
  • 24. Coping with limited spatial-temporal coverage of climate data
  • 25. From RS data to rainfall
    (ppm)
    HUANCANE
    50
    40302010
    0
    1-Jan-99
    20-Jul-99
    5-Feb-00
    23-Aug-00
    11-Mar-01
    27-Sep-01
    15-Apr-02
    1-Nov-02
    Días
    Source: Yarlequé et al., 2007
  • 26. Andean Farmers: Adaptation strategies and potential tradeoffs
  • 27. 20th Century Climate Change in Tropical Andes
    Variable
    Assessment
    Temperature
    Average warming of 0.09-0.15
    ◦C decade−1; western
    slopes>highlands>eastern slopes
    Relative humidity (near
    Increased 0 -
    2.5 % decade−1;
    surface levels)
    Precipitation
    Little change in the latter half of
    20th Century. Some increments inEcuador, NW Argentina andBolivian lowlands
    Source: Vuille et al., 2003
  • 28. Projected Climate: Andes
  • 29. Late Blight (LB)
    ‰ Warmer temperatures with some humidity in higher grounds will increase the presence of potato late blight.
    ‰ High incidence of LB in the future (2050) above 3000 masl (highlighted in the map) where it is virtually absent today
  • 30. Potato tuber moth (PTM)
    ‰ PTM is actually present in
    interandean valleys and thecoastal areas of the Andes
    ‰ PTM is expected to climb as well due to climate change
  • 31. 60
    45
    Potato species
    30
    Solanum juzepczukii (juz)
    Solanum tuberosum ssp. Andigena (and)
    15
    Solanum tuberosum ssp. Tuberosum (tub)
    0
    Solanum phureja (phu)
    50
    A B C
    Solanum acaule (acl)
    40
    30
    Cultivar and progenitors
    20
    (A) Luki
    10
    juz 100%
    0
    (B) Gendarme
    A
    B C
    50
    and 100%
    40
    (C) Sajama
    Hybrid
    30
    and: 25%
    20
    tub: 50%
    10
    phu: 12.5%
    50
    acl 12.5%
    0
    40
    A B C
    30
    Period
    20
    50
    10
    40
    1965-19751976-19851986-19951996-2005
    0
    30
    A B C
    20
    10
    0
    A
    B C
  • 32. As temperature and presence of pest increase in the Andes Potatoes are planted in higher grounds
    1975:
    (4000-4150msnm)
    2005:
    (4150-4300msnm)
    S. De Haan & H. Juarez, CIP (2008)
  • 33. Putting pieces together for a hypothetical example:
    Changes in potential potato (improved and native) in Peru: 2000-2050
  • 34. Sampling-transect to assess carbon contents and stocks in Southern Peru.
    Source: Segnini et al., 2010
  • 35. Carbon stocks in diverse Andean soils
  • 36. Peatlands
    and other
    land uses in theAndean highplateau
  • 37. Potential loss of soil carbon stocks due to cropping peatlands and grasslands in Peru & Bolivia
    Peatlands to potato
    350
    300250200150100
    50
    0
    2000
    2050
    Scenarios
    Bolivia
    Peru
    Grasslands to potato
    12000
    1000080006000
    40002000 0
    2000
    2050
    Scenarios
    Bolivia
    Peru
  • 38. The challenge
    (Climate smart agriculture)
    Potato agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, resilience(adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases (mitigation), andenhances achievement of national food security and developmentgoals.

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