Tools used in climate risk
management policies
Philip Thornton
Institutions and Policies for Scaling Out Climate Smart Agr...
Outline
• Importance of climate variability and the need for
managing risk

• Types of risk, what CCAFS is doing
• Some to...
How does climate variability
affect food insecurity?
• Climate variability can have substantial effects on
agricultural gr...
Climate variability at the national level

12-month Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation (WASP) and growth in GD...
Climate variability at the household level
Herd dynamics in a Kenyan pastoral landscape with increasing
drought frequency
...
Some of the types of risk in agriculture
• Actions taken now can
reduce vulnerability in
the short term and
enhance resilience in the
long term

Risk management
in...
Local-level risk management
• Use of weather forecasts, seasonal
forecasts
• Index-based insurance
• Designed
diversificat...
National / regional risk management
• Better food security early
warning (e.g. crop yield
forecasting)
• Informing earlier...
Tools 1: Weather and climate information
Example: reconstructing historical weather data in Ethiopia
STATION

BLENDED

 w...
Tools 1: Weather and climate information
Example: downscaled future climate information
Climate Analogues: finding tomorro...
Tools 2: Household modelling under uncertainty

Impact-household

Systems dynamics and mathematical
programming models

Da...
Tools 2: Household modeling under uncertainty
Sodo, Ethiopia (ILRI, 2010)

Current management

Introduction of cowpea
Tools 3: In-season crop production forecasting
Yield
Forecasts
Tools 4: Scenarios to quantify uncertain futures
The way regional
uncertainties play out will
dramatically affect
agricult...
CCAFS East Africa Scenarios to 2050 GDP per capita compared
with the SSP scenarios to 2050, $ per capita (input)
5000

450...
Maize production in East Africa projected to 2030 under
four scenarios: results from GLOBIOM (IIASA) and IMPACT
(IFPRI). H...
Tools 5: Vulnerability mapping for priority setting
Exposure of
populations to
the impacts of
climate change
(hi, lo)

Exp...
Tools 5: Vulnerability mapping for priority setting
Exposure of
populations to
the impacts of
climate change
(hi, lo)

x

...
Tools 6: Integrated assessment: PE and GCE models
Model

Main exogenous drivers

Main output
variables
Computable
Populati...
Tools 6: PE and CGE models
MIRAGE Modeling International Relationships in Applied General Equilibrium
• Export taxes
• WTO...
Some of the tools that can inform policy making at different scales
concerning risk management
Tool
Weather data tools
(re...
Achieving coordinated and science-informed policies
1 Managing risk for sustainable agricultural growth
•
•
•
•

Approache...
p.thornton@cgiar.org
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Tools used in climate risk management policies

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Presentation by Philip Thornton, Theme Leader, CCAFS, at the CCAFS Workshop on Institutions and Policies to Scale out Climate Smart Agriculture held between 2-5 December 2013, in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

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Tools used in climate risk management policies

  1. 1. Tools used in climate risk management policies Philip Thornton Institutions and Policies for Scaling Out Climate Smart Agriculture Colombo, 2-3 December 2013
  2. 2. Outline • Importance of climate variability and the need for managing risk • Types of risk, what CCAFS is doing • Some tools that can help in policy formulation concerning risk management • Summary and what’s needed in the future
  3. 3. How does climate variability affect food insecurity? • Climate variability can have substantial effects on agricultural growth at the national level; at local level it can crush households • We can show links from climate variability to food availability and then to food insecurity and poverty • As climate variability increases in the future (though we don’t know how, exactly), more pressure on food insecurity and poverty, all other things being equal
  4. 4. Climate variability at the national level 12-month Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation (WASP) and growth in GDP and agricultural GDP (data from data.worldbank.org/indicator and the IRI data library, iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/)
  5. 5. Climate variability at the household level Herd dynamics in a Kenyan pastoral landscape with increasing drought frequency Thornton & Herrero (2009)
  6. 6. Some of the types of risk in agriculture
  7. 7. • Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term Risk management in CCAFS • Improving current climate risk management should reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations
  8. 8. Local-level risk management • Use of weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts • Index-based insurance • Designed diversification • Integrating traditional risk management knowledge
  9. 9. National / regional risk management • Better food security early warning (e.g. crop yield forecasting) • Informing earlier intervention • Grain, fodder, seed banks • Trade policies • Improving national and regional climate information services (e.g. inputs to insurance indices) 1 January 2013
  10. 10. Tools 1: Weather and climate information Example: reconstructing historical weather data in Ethiopia STATION BLENDED  weather records to use for crop forecasting, insurance indices, economic planning, … Greatrex, 2013 SATELLITE
  11. 11. Tools 1: Weather and climate information Example: downscaled future climate information Climate Analogues: finding tomorrow's agriculture today http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/Analogues/ http://ccafs-climate.org Daily generated data for future climates using Google Earth http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM ™
  12. 12. Tools 2: Household modelling under uncertainty Impact-household Systems dynamics and mathematical programming models Data collection Household constraints, objectives, resources • Climate • Family structure • Land management  Impacts on income, food security, resource use, of different adaptation / mitigation options • Livestock management • Labour allocation • Family’s dietary pattern • Farm’s sales and expenses • Mitigation practices  What are the local impacts of policy changes at national level?
  13. 13. Tools 2: Household modeling under uncertainty Sodo, Ethiopia (ILRI, 2010) Current management Introduction of cowpea
  14. 14. Tools 3: In-season crop production forecasting
  15. 15. Yield Forecasts
  16. 16. Tools 4: Scenarios to quantify uncertain futures The way regional uncertainties play out will dramatically affect agriculture and food security development pathways Using scenarios in South Asia • • • • LEAD Pakistan organises policy engagement NAPA review Bangladesh funded by ADB YES Bank India, PANOS South Asia Nepal adaptation policies • Actors: governments, private sector, civil society, academia and media • Scenarios being quantified using global agricultural economic models: IFRPI’s IMPACT, IIASA’s GLOBIOM
  17. 17. CCAFS East Africa Scenarios to 2050 GDP per capita compared with the SSP scenarios to 2050, $ per capita (input) 5000 4500 4000 3500 SSP1EasternAf SSP2EasternAf 3000 SSP3EasternAf SSP4EasternAf 2500 SSP5EasternAf CCAFS Scen1 Ants revisedEasternAf 2000 CCAFS Scen2 Zebra revisedEasternAf CCAFS Scen3 Leopards revisedEasternAf 1500 CCAFS Scen4 Lions revisedEasternAf 1000 500 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  18. 18. Maize production in East Africa projected to 2030 under four scenarios: results from GLOBIOM (IIASA) and IMPACT (IFPRI). Historical data from FAO. • Help organize strategic planning at the regional level • Help to guide and develop agricultural, adaptation and mitigation policies at the national level • Help to guide investments into agriculture and food security • Help provide a context for research • Provide a regional context for local decision-making
  19. 19. Tools 5: Vulnerability mapping for priority setting Exposure of populations to the impacts of climate change (hi, lo) Exposure 1: Areas where there is greater than 5% change in Length of Growing Period (LGP) x Sensitivity of food systems to these impacts (hi, lo) x Areas with more dependence on crop agriculture assumed more sensitive : cropping <>16% Coping capacity of populations to address these impacts (hi, lo) Chronic food insecurity a proxy for coping capacity (institutional, economic problems): stunting prevalence <>40% • Areas in which food security is vulnerable to climate change using three key thresholds • A way to pinpoint areas for targeting of interventions Ericksen et al. (2010)
  20. 20. Tools 5: Vulnerability mapping for priority setting Exposure of populations to the impacts of climate change (hi, lo) x Sensitivity of food systems to these impacts (hi, lo) x Coping capacity of populations to address these impacts (hi, lo) • Areas in which food security is vulnerable to climate change using three key thresholds • A way to pinpoint areas for targeting of interventions Ericksen et al. (2010)
  21. 21. Tools 6: Integrated assessment: PE and GCE models Model Main exogenous drivers Main output variables Computable Population, Total Factor Supply or demand General Productivity, bioenergy volumes, prices, Equilibrium (CGE) demand, (carbon) taxes capital stock, GDP, GHG emissions e.g. MIRAGE Partial Population, GDP, input Supply or demand Equilibrium (PE) prices, bioenergy volumes, prices, demand, yield and area GHG emissions e.g. IMPACT trends
  22. 22. Tools 6: PE and CGE models MIRAGE Modeling International Relationships in Applied General Equilibrium • Export taxes • WTO Negotiations / Framework • MIRAGE CGE model with Household Disaggregation • Climate Change, trade consequences and trade policy options Long • Mitigation • Biofuels, land use, and food prices • Adaptation h o r i z o n Medium Trade and Climate Change T i m e Short Trade Policy Analysis Laborde, 2013
  23. 23. Some of the tools that can inform policy making at different scales concerning risk management Tool Weather data tools (reconstruction, infilling, generation) Household modelling Production forecasting Scenarios (qualitative, quantitative) Priority setting tools, processes (qualitative, quantitative) Integrated assessment models (PE, CGE) Purpose • Improve data quality and availability for decision making and for use in other tools Scale Local  national • Evaluating options under uncertainty for effects on income, labour requirements, food security, GHG emissions, … • Within-season projection of crop yields Local Local  national • Facilitate discussions among stakeholders of Local  plausible future development pathways Global • Identify robust alternatives under uncertainty for attaining agreed objectives • Identify “hot spots” and “cold spots” of exposure / risk / vulnerability where interventions could be targeted • Future supply and demand, land-use patterns, trade policy evaluation under uncertain economic development pathways Local  Global Regional  global
  24. 24. Achieving coordinated and science-informed policies 1 Managing risk for sustainable agricultural growth • • • • Approaches that consider different sources of risk and their changing profiles Relative benefits & costs of insurance, diversification, safety nets More emphasis on building adaptive capacity and innovation Integrating climate change effects on rainfall, temperature, pest / disease patterns 2 Promoting policy coordination • • • Holistic approaches to addressing food security, agriculture, climate change Involve multiple stakeholders, sectors, policy areas, time horizons, levels of governance Need to face up to complexity, uncertainty, volatility/shocks 3 Linking policy and research under uncertain futures • Scenarios for looking at tradeoffs / synergies between multiple objectives of multiple stressors on human & biophysical systems
  25. 25. p.thornton@cgiar.org
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