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Institutional partnerships to tailor downscaled seasonal weather forecast for the end-users
 

Institutional partnerships to tailor downscaled seasonal weather forecast for the end-users

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Presentation by O Ndiaye, at the CCAFS Workshop on Institutions and Policies to Scale out Climate Smart Agriculture held between 2-5 December 2013, in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Presentation by O Ndiaye, at the CCAFS Workshop on Institutions and Policies to Scale out Climate Smart Agriculture held between 2-5 December 2013, in Colombo, Sri Lanka

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    Institutional partnerships to tailor downscaled seasonal weather forecast for the end-users  Institutional partnerships to tailor downscaled seasonal weather forecast for the end-users Presentation Transcript

    • Institutions and Policies for Scaling Out Climate Smart Agriculture “, 2-3 December 2013 Colombo, Sri Lanka
    • MOTIVATIONS  Short rainy season : 4 months  Strong climate variability (strongest in the world and at all time scales)  Huge socio-economical impacts :  Health : malaria, meningitis  Agriculture : (90% in Senegal) rain fed and pastoralism  limited economic resources Sahel GHCN Series: 12-20N, 18W-30E
    • Annual cycle of rainfall (monthly mean 1950-1997) 800 700 600 500 Min 400 Mean Max 300 200 100 0 May June July Aug Sept Oct
    • EXTREME EVENTS EX : Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso, 1st of September 2009
    • BURKINA-FASO : OUAGADOUGOU Courteously by Nakoulma Guillaume
    • BUILDING A TEAM OF STAKEHOLDERS : MULTI-DISCIPLINARY APPROACH.  National Level :  National Weather Service (ANACIM)  Ministry of agriculture (DA)  Initiative Prospective Agriculture and Rural (IPAR)  Ecological Monitoring Center (CSE)  national agricultural research institute (ISRA)  National department of water resource management (DGPRE)  ENDA Energie  Local extension services and NGO in Kaffrine :  agricultural advisers and extension (ANCAR)  Service Départemental du développement Rural (SDDR),  NGO : Volunteers from Red Cross (CR), Africare (PRODIAK), World Vision (WV),  Farmers organizations :  National Farmers (Japandoo, CNCR, FONGS, … ), Individual farmers,  Organization of women producers (GPF), Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation (CPSA)  Communication :  community and rural radio,  National TV, Private radios and TVs (Sud FM, Wal Fadjri, )
    • Multi modeling approaches Ocean Atmosphere Fcst->SST AGCM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIP Model Output Statistics Using wind (Statistical Correction) PREDICTION : Rainfall
    • Problems of true versus false onset Same period of onset but followed by dry spell which affect any planning True Start False Start 8
    • Building on local knowledge: High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of their indicators  “Stronger monsoon” Doing quite the same thing BUT Better observing system More reliable storage capacity (numbers, maps, computers, …) « When the wind change direction to fetch the rain » = Wind change from harmatan to monsoon during onset
    • DOCUMENTING FARMERS DECISION SYSTEM : WHAT DECISONS FARMERS are MAKING TO MANAGE THEIR CROPPING SYSTEM AND WHY ? • • • • • • • WHAT Field preparation : Selecting the crop : Planting : Weeding : Applying fertilizer, pesticide, … Harvesting : Storage : WHY Finance Technology Heritage Sociology Habits Beliefs Environment Climate/weather
    • Before Seasonal forecast  varieties Onset forecast  farm preparation Training workshop Indigenous knowledge Discussion and meetings During the Crop season Nowcasting  flooding saving life (thunder) Daily forecast  use of fertilizer / pesticide Ten-day forecast  weeding, field work Maturity/end Ten-day forecast  optimum harvesting period Field Visits 10 days experts meeting : monitoring the season Evaluation Lessons drawn
    • team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist
    • TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE : “WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”
    • Seed growers Local working Group (Customize Climate information) Farmers Rural radio Extensions services Text messaging Agriculture Pest Disease Control Forestry Social gatherings Bulletin Community Rural radio Local authority Nowcasting Local Pluri-disciplinary Working Group Livestock Weather forecast Climate information Seasonal forecast
    • WHAT DID WE LEARN First step : building trust (social dimension : using indigeneous knowledge) Giving not only useful BUT useable forecast (tailored for specific user needs : local language) Long term and multi-stakeholders partnership (each institution has part of the solution for food security) Communicating the forecast in easy to use term (easy to understand, can translate into action and to be evaluated) Dynamic process : need to better understand farmers decision system (farmers active participation : rain guage, indigenous knowledge …)
    • CONCLUSION OR CHALLENGES  Spatial scale of the forecast : down to farm  Up-scaling other sites (government representative demand)  Alternative :  dry (bad news !) =>give them hope (climate insurance, alternative)  wet but there is no extra resources : so what ? (engage seed/fertilizer producers, bank (CMS), corporation, … )  High rate of adoption by farmers and local administration (official ) SOLUTION :  whole package with other partners (WFP) ① Climate services (forecast + technology => advices) ② Climate insurance (dry/bad forecast + courage) ③ Access to finance, resources (wet//good forecast)
    • PRELIMINARY VERIFICATION 2012 (by farmers and extensions) Extra seasonal rainfall : Early warning issued on the May 16th for rain on the next 8 days It did rain on the 21st May 2012 (save a lot on crop left outside) True Onset : Forecast made on 9/10 May updated 10 June : 18 to 24 June 2012 First significant rainfall : 19 June (all kaffrine) (03Jun) Seasonal forecast : Forecast (9-10 May) : Normal to below normal (500 – 900 mm) Recorded rain in kaffrine : 576-1075 mm (Normal to above normal) Early Warning System : ( 10 day, 1-2 day, 30mm to 3 hour) 21 forecasts (all time scales) only 4 went way off problem of spatial coverage of the forecast kaffrine is too wide !