Learning Event No. 8, Session 2: Tirado. ARDD2012 Rio

Reshaping food access and consumption patterns to ensure nutritional needs whilefostering healthy and sustainable eating habits worldwide Cristina Tirado von der Pahlen, DVM, MS, PhD PHI Center for Public Health and Climate Change

Global Environmental and Climate Change Climate changeStratospheric Diverse pathways Land degradationozone depletion Agro-ecosystem UV exposure Productivity Nutrition & Health Conflict Decline in Water ecosystem quantity Altered services and safety precipitation Loss of Biodiversity Freshwater decline ecosystem function Adapted from WHO, 2003

Summary of Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Projected Health Impacts (IPCC: 2007) Negative Impact Positive ImpactVery High ConfidenceEffects on geographic range & incidence ofmalariaHigh Confidence Undernutrition & consequent disorders Injuries, deaths, disease - Extreme events (heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, etc) Cardio-respiratory diseases - poor air quality Cold-related deathsMedium Confidence Diarrhoeal diseases

The human face of climate change 925 million people suffer from long-term hunger By 2080 1 - 3 billion people will experience water scarcity 200 to 600 million, hunger (IPCC 2007)

Calorie availability in 2050 is likely to decline throughout the developing world resulting in 21% more undernourished children Number of Malnourished Children in Sub-Saharan Africa (millions)

Copyright: Barry Popkin • Chronic, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause 63% of global deaths (35 million), 80% in LIMIC. • Total deaths due to NCDs are projected to rise to 52 million by 2030. • Some 1 billion adults and 20 million children are estimated to be overweight. • Diets low fruit and vegetable intake – high saturated fats and low physical activity www.unscn.org

Growth in per capita consumption of meat to 2030 Source: Msangi and Rosegrant, 2011

Green House Gas emissions by food - (Weber and Mathews, 2009)

To meet the recommended target of reducing UK emissions fromthe concentrations recorded in 1990 by 80% by 2050 necessary to reduce livestock production in 30%the burden of ischaemic heart disease of reducing 30%consumption of animal products would decrease by about 15% inthe UK and 16% in São Paulo city

Assessing the Environmental Impacts ofConsumption and Production (UNEP,2010)“As the global population surges towards apredicted 9.1 billion people by 2050, westerntastes for diets rich in meat and dairy products areunsustainable”“global shift towards a vegan diet isvital to save the world from hunger, fuel poverty andthe worst impacts of climate change”

Dietary Recommendations Swedish National Food Admin. (2009)Meat (beef, lamb, Eat less, reduce portion size.pork, chicken) Eat locally produced and grass fed animalsFish and shellfish choose seafood with sustainable eco-labels From stable fish stocksFruits, Seasonal and locally producedvegetables, and Pesticide free and organicleguminoses Fiber rich & leguminosesPotatoes, cereals Locally grown – reduce rice intakeCooking fat Choose rape seed and olive oil– reduce palmWater Choose tap water Locally produced/packed

Sustainable diets Co-benefits• Healthy – diet rich in fruits & vegetables (400gr/day) can save 2.7 million lives• Environmentally sustainable• Socially equitableA Win-Win situation and common goal

Child malnutrition under base-line and dietscenarios for High Income countries, Brazil & China Msangi and Rosegrant 2011

Comprehensive impact assessments multiple co-benefitsEC Group of Ethics in Science and Technology Agriculture (2008) Sustainability Food & nutrition Life cycle Security Ethics Assessments Socio-economic Health Impact Fair Trade Assessments

Health Indicators for sustainable agriculture, food and nutrition securityHealth outcomes:•anemia in women of reproductive age;•stunting in children under 5 years;•obesity in children under 5 and in adults;Food access and dietary quality and sustainable foods production:•adequate access to protein supply;•excessive adult saturated fat consumption;•household dietary diversity; andFood market/trade policies supporting health and sustainability:•countries that have phased out use of antibiotics as growth promoters;•health impact assessment in agricultural policies, trade plans.•compliance with food safety standards

“Creating a climate for Health…” http://www.climatehealthconnect.org/

Climate change impacts on children stunting (Lloyd et al. 2012)• relative increase in moderate stunting of 1% to 29% in 2050 compared to a future without climate change.• Severe stunting estimated to increase by 23% (central sub- Saharan Africa) to 62% (South Asia).

Learning Event No. 8, Session 2: Tirado. ARDD2012 Rio

by CCAFS | CGIAR program - Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security on Jun 19, 2012

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