Jarvis - Accelerating adaptation: today's priorities for a 2030 world - Hunger for Action - 2012-09-05

Second Global Conference on Food Security, Agriculture and Climate Change, Hanoi 2012Accelerating adaptation: todays priorities for a 2030 world Andy Jarvis Theme leader, Adaptation to progressive climate change

Urgency and magnitude

Historical impacts on food security Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011) % Yield impact for wheat

Our ability to grow food in 2050Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050

Seguridad alimentario en riesgoIn order to meetglobal demands, we will need 60-70%more food by 2050.

Transformation inagriculture

Incremental adaptation• Farmers are adapting all the time• But the questions remains if it is at a rate that is fast enough• And if the incremental adjustments are in the right direction to enable the systematic adjustment• An example of how we can speeden up incremental adaptation

Farms of the future The Concept Three ongoing pilots

Yamba analogue map + Study Tour Itinerary + Activities - Zoom Farms of the future Taking the to Yamba’s plausible futures Journey analogue concept to the field Lushoto CCAFS siteTanzania Morogoro -Weather sttin visit Mwitikilwa - Bean trial visit - Tree nursery visit Njombe Nyombo Mbinga

Farms ofin Tanzania FOTF the future Journey to Yamba’s plausible futuresAnalogue study TourVillages visited Starting Lushoto Mbuzii point Yamba Kinol e Morogoro Mwitikilwa-Market value chain social -Weather station visitenterprise visit - Bean trial visit- Input supply Stockists Njombe - Tree nursery visit Nyombo Sepukila Village: -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and water conservation technique -Coffee nursery -Stoves Masasi Village: -Water source -Fish pond Mbinga -Biogas Mtama Village: - Bee keeping

Farms of the future Run Analogues Protocol – Beora (Nepal) Journey Beora’s plausible futures Analogue 1st Exchange visit - Nepal Chitwan - BeohraBlog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/

Farms of the future Enabling farmers adaptation learning across analogue sites in NepalParticipatory process to chose socially and culturallyappropriate exchange locations and perform system analysis 2 4 Local values and visions and Key environmental aspirations for the future challenges and 1 vulnerabilities Scope of the system under examination 3Source: Ariella Helfgott

Systems adaptation• Supports incremental adaptation• But also ensures that the direction farmers take is along the correct trajectory• Involves design of suitable policies• Incentivizing the changes that are needed• And in some cases, overcoming technological constraints• E.g. breeding for a 2030 world

Why do we need breeding?• For starters, we have novel climates

Crops biologically at tipping points•For example, US maize, soy, cotton yields fall rapidly when exposedto temperatures >30˚C•In many cases, roughly 6-10% yield loss per degree Schlenker and Roberts 2009 PNAS

Bean The most important food legume in tropical Latin America and East and southern AfricaArea harvestedCurrent bean suitability

Changes in Beans Suitability• Average global area of suitability for growing beans may bereduced by 6.6% by 2020• But wide range of change in suitability from -87% to +66%across regions.

Which climatic constraint affects the most beans? Major climate constraints: heat stress drought stress

Potential breeding strategies• Adaptation to drought stress – Fitting the right root system to each production environment: Deeper root system – Root whorls – basal root  Improved genotypes with vigorous root systems – Stomatal control – Improved photosynthate remobilization under stress• Adaptation to heat stress – Tepary bean “Sonora 32” (P. acutifolius) = more tolerant of high temperature at germination Tepary bean

Impacts on staples in SSA• Cassava consistently outperforms other staples in terms of changes in suitability

Cassava gaining while other fail

The Rambo root!

Outperforming othersThe Rambo root versus Mr. Bean

Cassava’s role as a substitution crop• Cassava as a fallback crop under an uncertain climate (risk management)• Cassava as the substitution crop for other staples more sensitive to heat and drought• What are the socio-cultural constraints to a shift in staple, and how can this shift be most effectively made?

Transformational change• Different livelihood systems for rural communities• Different structural make-up of the agricultural and food system at national and regional scales• Crucial to plan for transformational change, and not wait until it happens• One example where it is needed….

Suitability in Cauca• Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050• The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and MECETA changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.

The need to prioritise• Impact studies need to shift from scare stories into understanding the entry points for adaptation interventions• We need to move beyond shopping lists of adaptation options to investment portfolios, with robust numbers on costs, benefits and identification of constraints

Adaptation entry points in maize- bean systems

A MAC style prioritisation framework for CSA?

Uptake of sustainable agricultural practices Innovation / Pre-investment Implementation at Identification (eg, scale / of practices development Establishment of funds, climate institutions finance) Demonstration of financial / Policy shifts and commercial large-scale changes viability and in practices, Demonstration of sustainability livelihoods and agro-economic outcomes environmental and sustainability potential impacts Time

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Jarvis - Accelerating adaptation: today's priorities for a 2030 world - Hunger for Action - 2012-09-05

by CCAFS | CGIAR program - Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security on Sep 13, 2012

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Jarvis - Accelerating adaptation: today’s priorities for a 2030 world - Hunger for Action - 2012-09-05 Presentation Transcript