CCAFS Science Meeting Item 03 Lisa Goddard - Future Climate
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CCAFS Science Meeting Item 03 Lisa Goddard - Future Climate

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CCAFS Science Meeting presentation by Lisa Goddard - "Climate Variability and Change Information for Building Resilience."

CCAFS Science Meeting presentation by Lisa Goddard - "Climate Variability and Change Information for Building Resilience."

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    CCAFS Science Meeting Item 03 Lisa Goddard - Future Climate CCAFS Science Meeting Item 03 Lisa Goddard - Future Climate Presentation Transcript

    • ??? Climate Variability and Change Information 1. Climate models Projections 21st century for Building Resilience Large scale 2. Regionalization 3. Localized Distributions Lisa Goddard International Research Institute for Climate & Society The Earth Institute, Columbia University goddard@iri.columbia.edu Acknowledgements: Walter Baethgen, Arthur Greene1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 1
    • Dealing with Climate Variability and Change ???1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 2
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues Dealing with Climate Variability and Change ???1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 3
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues Global Climate Change ProjectionsSource: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Science Basis for Climate Change Sept. 8, 2008 EESC W4400xhttp://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues Climate Variability & Change Globally Annual Mean Temperature Temperature 65% Most of the variability in the globally-averaged temperature is contained in the slowly varying “climate change” component. 13% (Greene, Goddard & Cousin, EOS, 2010) 21%1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 5
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues Climate Variability & Change Locally e.g. Climate Variability & Change in SESA - DJFTemperature Precipitation~0% 21%17% 8%80% 69% 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 6
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues Climate Variability & Change Locally e.g. Climate Variability & Change in SESA - DJFTemperature Precipitation~0% 21%17% 8%80% 69% 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 7
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues Precipitation Trends: of total variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 8
    • Timescales Simulations Research IssuesPrecipitation Decadal Variability: of variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/ 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 9
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues Precipitation Decadal Variability: % of variance DECOMPOSITION20th Century Gridded Observations – Jul-Aug-Sep Seasonal Means 12% 40% 46%http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/ 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 10
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues (Greene, et al. 2012)1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 11
    • Timescales Simulations Research Issues Decadal Variability1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 12
    • Timescales Simulations Research IssuesTotal Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology (a farmer can get 5 or 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing) How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc? How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies? How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions? How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales? There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance) 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 13
    • Timescales Simulations Research IssuesTotal Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology (a farmer can get 5 or 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing) How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc? How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies? How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions? How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales? There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance) 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 14
    • Timescales Simulations Research IssuesTotal Variability of crop/livestock production with current climate & current technology (e.g. a farmer can get 5 to 8 tons/ha of corn or lose the entre crop and harvest nothing) How much of this variability can you “control” with adequate technology, interventions in extension services, infrastructure, etc? How much can you improve that “control”, with adequate institutional arrangements, policies? How much can you improve that “control”, with other interventions? How much can you improve that “control” with adequate climate information at seasonal, longer-term scales? There will always be a remaining “risk” (variability) that one will not be able to control. Here is where we need “risk transfer” tools (e.g., financial such as insurance) 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 15
    • Take Away Points1 – Consider climate at all timescales … for establishing resilience, for informing management, and for planning2 – Test current systems/options to current climate risk3 – Strive for “informed uncertainty” (won’t get that straight from models)4 – Incorporate mechanisms to deal with residual risk1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 16
    • 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 17
    • Timescales Simulations Research IssuesPrecipitation Trends: of variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Time_Scales/1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 18
    • Temperature Trends: Percent of total variance 20th Century Gridded Observations -- Annual Means 1-2 May 2012 Third Annual CCAFS Science Workshop 19