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Flood Management in Bangladesh

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Presentation by Dr A Qayyum, Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme, Bangladesh at the CCAFS Workshop on Institutions and Policies to Scale out Climate Smart Agriculture held between 2-5 December …

Presentation by Dr A Qayyum, Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme, Bangladesh at the CCAFS Workshop on Institutions and Policies to Scale out Climate Smart Agriculture held between 2-5 December 2013 in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

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  • 1. Geographical Location of Bangladesh Bangladesh
  • 2. The Ganges, Brahmaputra & Meghna Basins Country Bangladesh India Nepal Bhutan China Myanmar Total Ganges Basin Area % (sqkm) 39,726 4.0 Brahmaputra Basin Area % (sqkm) 38,956 7.0 Meghna Basin Area % (sqkm) 31,859 41.1 770,197 149,417 77.3 15.0 44,934 58.0 36,941 3.7 197,504 1,324 41,324 273,539 690 0.9 996,281 552,646 35.7 0.2 7.5 49.5 77,483
  • 3. Digital Elevation Model of . DEM of Bangladesh SRTM 90m SRTM, 90m
  • 4. Complex River Network River System: 24,000 km, 57 trans-boundary rivers
  • 5. • Highest in Sylhet (> 6,000mm) • Lowest in Rajshahi
  • 6. Rainfall in Cherrapunji, Meghalaya - Home of Clouds The wettest place in the World, Annual Average 12,000mm, max 26,442 (1861)
  • 7. • • • • • • • Monsoon rainfall Spring snow melt Deforestation in Nepal & Tibet Soil Erosion Low topography in River silted up Cyclones/CC/SLR
  • 8. Snow melting in Himalays
  • 9. Deforestation in Nepal
  • 10. Flood in Bangladesh          River Flood Flash Flood Rain-fed Flood Tidal Flood Unique geographical locations Excess runoff from U/S Low topography , River siltation Sea swell during monsoon Low gradients of major rivers; Gan – 3cm/km, BPutra – 8cm/km and Meg- 3cm/km
  • 11. Floods in Bangladesh Every year about 20 % of the cultivable area is inundated more than one meter about 4 to 6 months period Situation deteriorates during floods of higher magnitude Catastrophic floods: 1987,1988, 1998, 2004 Casualties in 1998 floods • • • • • • Over 60% area inundated Over 30 million people affected Over 4300 km of roads damaged Food grain loss 2.2 million tons 270 thousands fish farms washed away More than 3000 industries were affected Flooding reduces economical activities and enhances poverty
  • 12. Major 3 Floods in Bangladesh Bahadurabad on the Jamuna River Water level comparable with those of 1998 in Ganges and Jamuna 20.5 2004 20.0 19.5 Water Level (mPWD) 1998 19.0 1988 18.5 18.0 Hardinge Bridge on the Ganges River 17.5 15.5 17.0 2004 1998 14.5 16.5 13.5 31-May 15-Jun 1988 Bhagyakul on the Padma River 12.5 30-Jun 11.5 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 13-Sep 28-Sep 2004 7.5 10.5 7.0 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.5 16-May 29-Aug 8.0 Date 31-May 15-Jun Water Level (mPWD) 15.5 16-May Water Level (mPWD) 16.0 6.5 6.0 1998 5.5 5.0 30-Jun 4.5 1988 15-Jul 30-Jul 14-Aug 29-Aug 30-Jun 15-Jul 13-Sep 28-Sep 30-Jul 14-Aug Date 4.0 3.5 3.0 Water Level Comparison (1988, 1998, 2004) 2.5 16-May 31-May 15-Jun Date 29-Aug 13-Sep 28-Sep
  • 13. Flood in 2004 Niketon area, Gulshan-1 Motijheel Area Pump Drainage Houses beside Hatirjheel
  • 14. Flood 2007
  • 15. Flood in Bangladesh – Few Shots 2007
  • 16. Comparison of Losses Resulting from Recent Floods Damage to infrastructure goes higher even with flood of lower magnitude
  • 17. Risk Factors with respect of Water Induced Disaster         Low lying area, 80% area below 9.0m Flat topography, mild to low slope (10-20cm/km) Located at the outfall of 3 mighty rivers Large coastal exposures, east to west along the south High population density Infrastructure development and rapid urbanization Limited coverage of flood forecasting Limited disaster preparedness capability, e.g limited flood shelters
  • 18. The geographical location and average land levels of Bangladesh are conducive to Flood, Erosion, Storm Surge Average inundation 22% 68% area inundated in 1998 Over 3000 km river bank will be eroded by 2025 Water scarcity in 7 months a year About 1/4 th of the country susceptible to tidal surges
  • 19. How to cope with the new challenges Sea level rise Increase in salinity intrusion Increase in evaporation Increase in snow melt in the Himalayas Drought Decrease in precipitation in dry season Increase in precipitation in monsoon Impact on agriculture Prolonged monsoon & fisheries Increase in flooding intensity Submergence of coastal areas Cyclone
  • 20. Because of geographical location, low topography, deltaic plain, complex river system, high population, agriculture dominated economy, huge losses due to flood, present level of preparation etc International bodies including UNDP has identified Bangladesh to be the most vulnerable country in the world with respect to climate change and disaster Joint probability of flood and cyclone surge… Bangladesh The land of intricate river Systems
  • 21. National Plans and Policies: Travelling a long way 1964, IECO Master Plan 1972, IBRD Plan National Water Plan 1, 1986 National Water Plan 2, 1991 Flood Action Plan, 1989-95 There is no shortage of national policies, plans and frameworks – there is shortage of their proper application and integration/implementat ion BWFMS, 1995 National Water Policy, 1999 Guidelines for PWM, 2000 NWMP, 2004 National Flood Workshop, 2004 Coastal Zone Policy Coastal Zone Plan, 2005 Climate Change Strategy 2008
  • 22. Chronological Development of Water Management Krug Mission Report 1957 Disastrous floods of 1954, 1955 and 1956 focused world attention on the importance and the need for flood control and water management in Bangladesh (the then East Pakistan). The report stressed that water resources development was essential for higher agricultural production and flood control as central issue Recommendation of the Mission Report led to the formulation of the EPWAPDA Master Plan, 1964
  • 23. Chronological Development of Water Management EP WAPDA Master Plan 1964  EPWAPDA 1964 Master Plan emphasized to meeting agricultural demand of water through large scale public sector development for both dry season (irrigation) and wet season (flooding) water management.  The Plan identified 63 water development projects. This initiated the implementation of large scale Flood Control Drainage (FCD), Flood Control, Drainage & Irrigation (FCDI) projects including the protection of most of the Coastal zone against tidal flooding and Hydropower generation..
  • 24. Chronological Development of Water Management Land & Water Sector Strategy 1972 The proposed strategy emphasized the need for quick results from water development efforts in order to achieve food grain self-sufficiency. It attached high priority to small and medium sized, simple, low cost, labour intensive projects. Although, Government did not accept the study as a whole but the strategy of the government in the water development sector was greatly influenced by the study report.
  • 25. Chronological Development of Water Management MPO National Water Plan-1 MPO National Water Plan-2 1986 1991 NWP marks the systematic planning practice in Bangladesh NWP -I , 1987 has set the following investment priorities: (i) Minor irrigation schemes, LLP, STWs and DSSTWs (ii) Major irrigation schemes (FCDI) (iii) Deep tubewells (DTW) (iv) Flood Control and Drainage Scheme (FCD). In NWP-II, a detailed investment programme were prepared. The 20 year (1991-2010) public investment programme gave more emphasis to FCD than NWP Phase-1. Both NWP's made important contributions to the knowledge and understanding of the water resources of Bangladesh. However the report was not accepted by the Government..
  • 26. Chronological Development of Water Management Flood Action Plan 1989-95 After the disastrous floods of 1987 and 1988, Government as well as development partner's attention were once again focused to the flood problem which initiated the Flood Action Plan. Noteworthy features of FAP are : 26 Studies were conducted.  Attention was paid to urban FCD and non-structural flood proofing, though agriculture remained the main focus of regional plans;  Social, environmental and fisheries impacts and people's participation were given particular emphasis.  Emphasized formulation of National Water Strategy
  • 27. Chronological Development of Water Management Bangladesh Water & Flood Management Strategy-1995 The BWFMS was the major strategy follow-up to FAP and became the working policy document for the water sector. It recommended a 5 year programs involving:  Preparation of National Water Policy  Preparation of a National Water Management Plan.  Strengthening of water sector organizations responsible for planning, construction, operation and maintenance
  • 28. Policy Statement in NWPo - Related to Disaster Management  Develop early warning and flood-proofing systems to manage natural disasters like flood and drought  Designate flood risk zones and take appropriate measures to provide desired levels of protection for life, property, vital infrastructure agriculture and wetlands. Guidelines for Protection  Regions of economic importance will be fully protected against floods.  Other critical areas, will be gradually provided reasonable degree of protection against flood.  In the remaining rural areas, with the exception of those already covered by existing flood control infrastructure, the people will be motivated to develop different flood proofing measures such as raising of platform for homesteads, market places, educational institutions, community centers, etc., and adjusting the cropping pattern to suit the flood regime.
  • 29. Policy Statement in NWPo - Related to Disaster Management  A system of cost recovery, pricing, and economic incentives/disincentives is necessary to balance the supply and demand of water.  Cost recovery of services such as flood control, drainage, irrigation, and wastewater treatment has not been considered adequately  Cost recovery for FC and FCD projects is not envisaged in this policy. In case of flood control, drainage, and irrigation (FCDI) projects water rates will be charged for O&M as per Government rules.  Investigate thoroughly important flood control and management issues, such as the efficacy of coastal polders, for guiding future policy on structural interventions.  Undertaking any special study, as may be required, for fulfilling the objectives and programmes envisaged in the NWPo and the Bangladesh Water and Flood Management Strategy (BWFMS).
  • 30. National Water Management Plan, December 2001 Agriculture & Water Management 8 Programmes Environment & Aquatic Resources 10 Programmes Major Cities 17 Programmes Disaster Management 6 Programmes Main Rivers 12 Programmes Towns & Rural Areas 8 Programmes Institutional Development 10 Programmes Enabling Environment 13 Programmes Total 84 Programmes
  • 31. BWDB, WARPO, JRC, RRI,IWM, CEGIS BUET, DU, IWM,CEGIS WB, ADB RNE, DFID etc. Universities, NGO, Pvt Organisations Development Partners RHD Ministry of Ministry of Water Resources Environment Ministry of & Forest LGRD Communication Management and Relief Ministry of Ministry of Defence Ministry of Works LGED, DPHE, DWASA , CWASA Ministry of Disaster Key Organizations Ministry of Agriculture DoE, DoFo Ministry of Shipping Ministry of Fisheries & Live Stocks BARC, BADC, BARI, SRDI DoF BMD, SPARRSO, SoB, RAJUK BIWTA DMB
  • 32. BWDB entrusted with the task of Organizations under the Ministry ofisWater Resources Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) Water Resource Planning Organization (WARPO) River Research Institute (RRI) Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) Bangladesh Haor & Wetlands Development Board (BHWDB) Center for Environmental & Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) managing the country’s water resources through implementation of WARPO is an apex organization flood control, drainage & irrigation under river erosion, dredging, land (FCDI), the Ministry of Water Resources, dealing with nationwide reclamation, coastal zone water resources development The management, GW planning. and Waterallied project for Planning Act other Resources socio-economic development the country. Its main 1992 and theofNational Water Policy principalGovernment ofis Bangladesh IWRM and of the of operation active beneficiary participation.. various mandated and assigned important responsibilities
  • 33. Organizations under the Ministry of Water Resources Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) Water Resource Planning Organization (WARPO) River Research Institute (RRI) Joint Rivers Commission (JRC) Bangladesh Haor & Wetlands Development Board (BHWDB) Center for Environmental & Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) A research institute that conducts A research institute that conducts tests (physical models) & research in tests (physical models) & research in the fields of River, Estuarine & the fields of River, Estuarine & Coastal Hydraulics at local level Coastal Hydraulics at local level including Soil Mechanics, Material including Soil Mechanics, Material Testing & Sediment Technology. Testing & Sediment Technology. Performs integrated environmental analysis using technology such as GIS, RS, databases and IT and provides solutions to challenges Provides services in theresources field of related to natural Water Modelling, Computational management. Hydraulics & allied sciences for integrated water resource management to enhance the quality of planning, implementation & monitoring activities.
  • 34. DDM is mandated to implement the objectives of Disaster Management Act by reducing the overall vulnerability from different impacts of disaster by undertaking risk reduction activities; DDM conducts humanitarian assistance programs to enhance the capacity of poor and disadvantaged, coordinates programmers of various GO and NGOs related to disaster risk reduction and emergency response. DDM is responsible to execute the principles, plans, directions and recommendations of GoB related to disaster management. DDM conducts research, organizes workshops and training programs, publishes its reports and documents and provide various policy advisory services to the concerned Ministry of the Government of Bangladesh.
  • 35. National Level Council and Committees for Disaster Management
  • 36. What has been done to reduce the huge losses of lives and properties? Flood Mitigation Structural measures • • Embankments Hydraulic Structures Non-structural measures • Flood forecasting and dissemination • Flood preparedness, etc. • Flood relief Since flood can not avoided in Bangladesh then what can be done to compensate the flood losses, properties and to minimize the sufferings? • Flood Insurance
  • 37. What has been achieved so far? Structural measures: Flood protection – over 10,000 km flood protection embankment Flood and Cyclone Shelters
  • 38. FLOOD CONTROL 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 SQKM 100% 25% 65% Total Area 40% Flood Prone Controlled
  • 39. What has been achieved so far? Non-structural measure Established a Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre Flood Forecasting Model (Super Model) has been re-calibrated 2007-08 conditions Forecast, using Super Model, is generated for up to 5 days (24 hrs, 48 hrs,72 hrs .. ) on regular basis during monsoon, Apr- Spt 10 days also during monsoon (CFAN), AprSept, not widely circulated Dissemination of warning through Government and NGO initiatives DMB plays a great role for Disaster Management
  • 40. Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh Chronological development  In the initial stage of the establishment of FFWC in 1972, there was 10 real-time flood monitoring points where forecast information was based on the correlation analysis and Muskingum-Conge flood routing model.  During the period of 1989-94, through UNDP assistance project and DANIDA funded Flood Action Plan 10 (FAP10) project, hydrological/ hydraulic approach utilizing MIKE11 was employed and forecast was made at 16 locations.  During the time of 1995-99, through extension of FAP10, expansion of Flood Forecasting and Warning System (FFWS) using MIKE11 with GIS facilities was made and forecast was increased at 30 locations.  In 2000 to 2005 period, the model area (super model) was extended, and forecast stations were increased to 38 no. under another DANIDA funded project.  A project funded by CDMP-II is on going under FFWC, which is being conducted to increase forecast lead-time from 3 days to 5 days including generation of flood forecast at three selected projects.
  • 41. Flood Forecasting & Warning System in Bangladesh Water Level Forecast: 1-5days & 10days (probabilistic) Forecasting Output Forecast bulletin Flood hydrograph Thana status map Flood map Role of IWM in Flood Forecasting IWM with DHI developed & updated the FFWC model Provides modelling and technical support to FFWC Training to BWDB staff Future flood Forecasting  10 days/ Seasonal Forecasting  Low Flow Forecasting
  • 42. Forecast Hydrographs with 5 days Lead Time (Experimental)
  • 43. Forecast Bulletin with 5 days Lead Time (Experimental)
  • 44. Location Specific FF At 3 key Locations  Brahmaputra Right Embankment  Irrigation Project - PIRDP - MDIP  National Highway - Dhaka – Mawa Road
  • 45. Location Specific FF Brahmaputra Right Embankment  BRE (mid sixties) is an Earthen Embankment, 220km from Gaibhanda  The river Jamuna is morphologically very active and erosion prone  Along the BRE, from Gaibandha to Eneatpur, there are 18 nos of Spurs & Groyane to protect the important Townships  Forecasting are at 4 locations; Gaibandha, Sariakandi, Sirajganj & Enaetpur  and also forecast profile from Gaibanga to Enaetpur
  • 46. Location Specific FF Dhaka- Mawa Highway  Dhaka-Mawa road connects Dhaka with Mawa Ferry Ghat of the Padma river stretching through Munshiganj district.  It is a two lane national highway having length of 36 km.  Highway is stretched through a low lying floodplain between the Padma and the Dhaleswari river which, Figure attached  Further details of the road will be given in next progress. Proposed WL Measurement Locations
  • 47. Location Specific FF Irrigation Project PIRDP  PIRDP is located in Northwest region bounded by Baral-Hurasagar river on the north, the Ganges on the South, the Jamuna on the East Abdulpur on the west.  Project area is in 8 Upazila: Pabna Sadar, Ishurdi, Sujanagar, Faridpur, Bera, Catmohar, Santhia and Atgharia of Pabna, 2Upazila: Lalpur and Baraigram of Rajshahi & 1upazila of Sirajganj district.  Project area is 196,680 ha of which 184,534 ha FC, Net irrigable area is 145,263 ha. The project comprises FC of 157.55 km, drainage K of 145.21 km, DR 23 nos & irrigation K of 254.76 km. RT WL are proposed at Bera PS
  • 48. FCDI project management using Flood Forecast • Pump operation • Emergency maintenance of embankment • Evacuation of people in the event of embankment failure • Total area under FCDI is 17,584 ha. • The project comprises of FC Emb of 60.7km, 4 Pump Stations, Drainage K of 125.5 km, Irri. K of 218km & 69 Regulators Meghna Dhonagoda FCDI Project
  • 49. Flash Flood in Northeast Region Major Activities  Physical understanding of Northeast Region  Review past attempts for flash flood model development in Bangladesh and elsewhere  Develop Flash Flood Model of the Northeast region using the Northeast Region Model  Investigate the possibility of using of Radar data from Moulvibazar Radar installed recently  Investigate the possibility of using 3-day shortduration rainfall forecast provided by ADPC (WRF), BMD(WRF) and NCMWRF (WRF)  Model Performance checking for hindcast period
  • 50. DEM : IWM
  • 51. DEM : IWM
  • 52. DEM : IWM
  • 53. DEM : CEGIS
  • 54. DEM : CEGIS
  • 55. DEM : CEGIS
  • 56. Flash Flood Forecast : Lead Time 2 days (Experimental) Forecasted Water level [m] Measured Water level [m] Forecasted Water level [m] Measured Water level [m] Kushiyara River at Sherpur; Forecast Date 04-05-2013 9.0 Khowai River at Habiganj; Forecast Date 04-05-2013 8.0 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.0 7.0 5.0 6.5 4.0 3.0 6.0 2.0 00:00 2013-04-28 00:00 04-30 00:00 05-02 00:00 05-04 00:00 05-06 5.5 00:00 2013-04-28 00:00 05-02 00:00 05-04 00:00 05-06 Forecasted Water level [m] Measured Water level [m] Forecasted Water level [m] Measered water level [m] Kushiyara River at Sheola; Forecast Date 04-05-2013 Manu River at Moulvi Bazar; Forecast Date 04-05-2013 10.0 00:00 04-30 14 12 Water Level (mPWD) 9.0 8.0 7.0 10 8 6 6.0 4 5.0 00:00 2013-04-28 00:00 04-30 00:00 05-02 00:00 05-04 00:00 05-06 2 00:00 2013-04-28 00:00 04-30 00:00 05-02 00:00 05-04 00:00 05-06
  • 57. Flash Flood Forecast Bulletin
  • 58. Detection Range of the Proposed Radar System New Doppler Radar in Moulvibazar (JICA fund) Covers most part of Meghna basin Calibration of RADAR against ground measured data is needed Digital form of data
  • 59. Atomization of Data Processing A computer based Software System o o o o o o o o http://www.imdguwahati.gov.in/rf24.htm http://121.241.116.157/dynamic/weather/delhiregion.html http://www.imdkolkata.gov.in/maxminrf.php http://amssdelhi.gov.in/dynamic/weather/wxtable.html http://imdguwahati.gov.in/dwr.htm http://imdnagpur.gov.in/dwr.php http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/today.htm http://www.nepalhomepage.com/hotlinks/weather/index.php Key Activities o Data Acquisition o Data Processing for Model Input o Data Processing Output dissemination
  • 60. The overall picture Climate Change Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Global warming will hit through water:  Through climate change : - changes in the hydrological cycle - sea level rise - increased water temperatures  Through increased climate variability: - more serious and frequent extremes, such as floods, droughts, typhoons
  • 61. Impact of Climate Change on Flood Dhaka Flood Protection Embankment AT MIRPUR Water Level (mPWD) 11 10 9 Crest Level = 10m CC2080 (FL = 8.36m) 8 7 6 5 Design FL = 7.8m CC2050 (FL = 8.14m) C/S R/S 4 3 2 Drainage congestion in Dhaka City due to CC would be a serious issue.
  • 62. Inundation of the coastal area due combined effect of SLR and increase of precipetation 19981998 Flood to SLR 60cm & increase of precipitation Flood due due to SLR 120cm & increase of precipitation (ECHAM 1998 25% increase of SLR (ECHAMScenario):Flood due to flooding A2 A2 Scenario): 18% increase of flooding
  • 63. Adaptation Height of the ground floor should be determined considering the inundation risk map of that area 9.5 m PWD (for worst scenario 2050) Additional Height= 3.5 m 6.0 m PWD Existing Height= 4.0 m 2.0 m PWD Kutubdia Island Flood Shelter of Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS)
  • 64. Climate Change Impact on Water logging Existing No. of Structure Affected Polder (Water Logging) [meter] No. of Structure Adaptation of Drainage System No. of Vent Additional No. ( BDT. million) (1.52m X 1.83m) of Vent Required Time Series Water Level (SWV_98-99_HD-Base-Modify-2.res11) [meter] 3.2 3.1 P3 30 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 51 Outfall River 3.0 P10-12 920 Polder-3 2.1 15 25 23 200 36 720 41 1.9 460 10 2.0 820 1.8 2.4 2.2 46 2.2 2.5 2.3 Time Series Water Level (SWV_98-99_HD-Base-Modify-2.res11) 2.3 P17/1 11 11 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.9 1.8 P24 11 40 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 P25 13 45 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 Base 1.1 P36 22:00:00 8-9-1998 00:00:00 9-9-1998 02:00:00 P39/2 04:00:00 SLR 2050 06:00:00 08:00:00 10:00:00 20 12:00:00 SLR 2100 14:00:00 4 16:00:00 18:00:00 Base 0.7 20:00:00 22:00:00 144 00:00:00 02:00:00 10-9-1998 33 0.6 25-7-1998 43 4-8-1998 10 SLR 2050 14-8-1998 24-8-1998 SLR 2100 860 3-9-1998 13-9-1998 200 23-9-1998
  • 65. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Loss of Crop Production due to MSL rise
  • 66. Impact of Climate Change on Salinity Intrusion (5ppt Salinity line) Khulna Barisal 95 km Patuakhali Bhola Barguna 55 km Sundarbans Hiron Point 0 SLR 60 cm SLR 120 cm SLR
  • 67. Impact of SLR(120 cm) on Drinking Water in the Halda River Mohora Base Condition Increase of Salinity with No Kaptai Release+120 cm SLR ( Worst Scenario)
  • 68. Impact of SLR(120 cm) on Fish Habitat in the Halda River Mohora Increase of Salinity with No Kaptai Release+ 120 cm SLR (Worst Scenario) Base Condition
  • 69. Way forward  People’s participation specially in the flood prone areas by providing information, awareness development and increasing resilience  More emphasis to given on adaptation in the agricultural sectors, seed variety, cropping pattern, management practice etc.  Disaster risk incorporated town planning to be introduce for reduction of urban flooding, water congestion etc.  Reassess and redesign of the flood embankments including submergible embankments in NE region considering climate change impacts.
  • 70. Way forward  Redesign the National Highways, Railways and other key infrastructures etc considering the climate change impacts  Development of early warning of storm surge inundation forecasting covering entire Bangladesh.  Reengineering of the coastal polders by phases for Sea level rise and storm surge for the safety of life and livelihood of coastal community.  There are need of new cyclone shelters in the newly defined high risk areas specially in the Barisal and Khulna division.
  • 71. Way forward  Reassess and redesign of the flood embankments including submergible embankments in NE region considering climate change impacts.  Redesign the National Highways, Railways and other key infrastructures etc considering the climate change impacts  Development of early warning of storm surge inundation forecasting covering entire Bangladesh.  Reengineering of the coastal polders by phases for Sea level rise and storm surge for the safety of life and livelihood of coastal community.  There are need of new cyclone shelters in the newly defined high risk areas specially in the Barisal and Khulna division.
  • 72. Way forward  There are knowledge gaps right from downscaling of the climate model to the considerations of glacial melt or blending of meteorological science with the hydrology. Capacity building in these areas will be of prime importance.  Regional cooperation at the basin level for prediction of climate change impacts and adaptation measures, sharing of knowledge and development of resources (conservation of water through upstream reservoirs, flood moderation and forecasting, navigation, hydro-power etc.)  The existing Bay models are capable of forecasting storm surge induced flooding. These models extend from Indian to Myanmar coast. These models can for the basis for regional cooperation
  • 73. Cost of doing nothing..…. retreat to the top of the Embankment Thank You qayyum1958@gmail.com

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