Expert Workshop on NAMAs: national mitigation               planning and implementation in agriculture.                  R...
MAC Curve            McKinsey & Company (2010).                 Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
MEXICO                            BRASILSource: World Bank (2010)   Source: World Bank (2010)          UK Agriculture     ...
MAC Curve for Colombia              World Bank and DNP-Energy- Transport- Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use        ...
Agriculture                         Agroforestry              Forestry   Annual       Perrennial                          ...
Abatement                                               Potential               Cost-                                  pot...
MAC Curve - Aggregate                130                30MAC: US$/tCO2                (70)           (170)           (270...
CAUTION!!            Economic tools               must be            appropriate for            the problem at            ...
Overview of selected key limitations of the cost/supplycurve method*• Negative costs (Not all cots were included)• Strong ...
MAC Curve global GHG beyond business as usual 2030                                  Source: McKinsey & Company (2010)     ...
Top priorities according to MAC curve          Carbon saved (tCO2e/year)         Cost (benefit) US$                       ...
Conclusions• There are a large number of potential mitigationoptions that could be implemented at the nationallevel, with ...
. Clear goals should  be set with anyemissions reduction  plan or strategy,and these goals can  then be used as    criteri...
MAC curves are a useful input toevaluating priority interventions,but…….should be interpreted withcaution.Incorrect use of...
Private                         perspective  Publicperspective              Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Biophysical efficiency (kg meat)                        Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Biophysical efficiency (ha)                     Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Time constrains              Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Thanks!          Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
Business as usual:   Agriculture   (Colombia)   Business as usual: Livestock   (Colombia)      Eco-Efficient Agriculture f...
Cost (benefit)   -1.000.000            -1.000.000Carbon capture        1                 1.000.000                        ...
Figure 1 - Effect of the emission reduction amount on the cost-effectiveness value.Figure 1a - CEA value against different...
Figure 2 - Effect of the emission reduction amount on the cost-effectiveness value.Figure 2a - CEA value against different...
MAC Curve: Silvopastoral Systems                               Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
MAC Curve: Improved Pastures                               Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
MAC Curve: Efficiency of Fertilizer Use in Rice                                         Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the ...
MAC Curve: Mango and Avocado                               Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
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Economic analysis for mitigation alternatives - limits of MACCs by Andy Jarvis and Lini Wollenberg

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Economic analysis for mitigation alternatives - limits of MACCs by Andy Jarvis and Lini Wollenberg

  1. 1. Expert Workshop on NAMAs: national mitigation planning and implementation in agriculture. Rome, 16-17 July 2012. CCAFS and FAO.Economic analysis for mitigation alternatives - limits of MACCs Jeimar Tapasco Andy Jarvis Lini Wollenberg WWW.ciat.cgiar.org Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  2. 2. MAC Curve McKinsey & Company (2010). Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  3. 3. MEXICO BRASILSource: World Bank (2010) Source: World Bank (2010) UK Agriculture USASource: OECD (2010) Sorce: Lutsey (2008)Agriculture for the Poor Eco-Efficient
  4. 4. MAC Curve for Colombia World Bank and DNP-Energy- Transport- Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  5. 5. Agriculture Agroforestry Forestry Annual Perrennial Tree + Crops Livestock Natural Plantation or/and LivestockEfficient Oil Palm CommercialFertilization Silvopastoral Systems Forestry(Case Study: PlantationsRice) Pasture Rubber Plantations Improvement REDD+ Conversion of Pastures to Fruit Tree PlantationsCrops in Cacao NutritionalHistosols ComplementsLow-Carbon EcologicalAgricultural RestorationPractices Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  6. 6. Abatement Potential Cost- potential area effectiveness Intervention alternative (thousands evaluated (US$/tCO2eq) of (ha) Min Max tCO2eq/year)Commercial Forestry 44,037 4,000,000 -4,4 -2,7PlantationsIntensive Silvopastoral (ISS) 3.739.109 -49 0.6Projects 43.819Avoided Deforestation 65,874 2,250,000 -0.2 -0.2(REDD Projects)Conversion of Pastures to 1,938 359,320 -188 -25Fruit ProductionRubber Plantations 1,786 260,000 -1,05 -0,67Efficient Use of Fertilizers 38 170,000 -267 145Pasture Improvement 54 51,487 -103 -62 Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  7. 7. MAC Curve - Aggregate 130 30MAC: US$/tCO2 (70) (170) (270) - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Thousand tonnes of carbon saved/year Rice Casanare (Irrigation) Rice Valledupar Mango Huila Small Mango Huila Large Avoca.Tolima Medium Avoca. Tolima Large Mango Cundinamarca Small Avoca. Huila Medium Avoca. Huila Large Mango Cundinamarca Large Rice Tolima Improve Pasture Meta Rice Casanare Mango Cundinamarca Medium Mango Boyaca Small Improve Pasture Casanare Mango Tolima Small Rice Meta Improve Pasture Arauca Mango Tolima Large Avoca. Risaralda Large Avoca. Antioquia Medium Avoca. Quindio Large SSPi Bajo-Cauca (Antioquia) Avoca. Risaralda Small Avoca. Quindio Small Avoca. Caldas Large Mango Boyaca Large Avoca. Antioquia Large Avoca. Risaralda Medium Avoca. Caldas Small Avoca. Quindio Medium Mango Antioquia Large Avoca. Antioquia Small Mango Boyaca Medium Mango Antioquia Small Avoca. Caldas Medium Rice Guaranda y Nechi SSPi Eastern -Antioquia rest of the country (CIPAV) SSPi Córdoba SSPi Atlantico SSPi Sucre SSPi Uraba-Antioquia SSPi Northeast - Antioquia Rice Jamundi Rice Cucuta Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  8. 8. CAUTION!! Economic tools must be appropriate for the problem at hand. Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  9. 9. Overview of selected key limitations of the cost/supplycurve method*• Negative costs (Not all cots were included)• Strong focus on costs as selection criteria (there are other criteria)• It does not include environmental and social benefit and costs• Economic and technological uncertainty inherent to predicting the future• Strong level of aggregation of the databases used• High sensitivity relative to baseline assumptions (future)• Ignoring interdependencies between measures• High sensitivity to (uncertain) emission factor assumptions *Fischedick et al. 2011. Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  10. 10. MAC Curve global GHG beyond business as usual 2030 Source: McKinsey & Company (2010) Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  11. 11. Top priorities according to MAC curve Carbon saved (tCO2e/year) Cost (benefit) US$ Individual IndividualPriority Measure US$/tCO2e Measure Aggregate Measure Aggregate 1 Rice Casanare (Irrigation) (267.2) 2,075 2,075 (554,465) (554,465) 2 Rice Valledupar (202.0) 321 2,397 (64,923) (619,388) 3 Mango Huila Small (188.2) 11,519 13,916 (2,168,430) (2,787,819) 4 Mango Huila Large (158.4) 46,296 60,212 (7,332,158) (10,119,977) 5 Avoca.Tolima Medium (138.1) 212,958 273,170 (29,412,260) (39,532,237) Least priorities according to MAC curve Carbon saved (tCO2e/year) Cost (benefit) US$ Individual IndividualPriority Measure US$/tCO2e Measure Aggregate Measure Aggregate 43 SSPi Uraba-Antioquia (0.6) 898,966 898,966 (537,857) (537,857) 42 SSPi Sucre (2.6) 1,831,998 2,730,964 (4,699,801) (5,237,657) 41 SSPi Atlantico (3.4) 596,711 3,327,675 (2,042,915) (7,280,572) 40 SSPi Córdoba (4.5) 3,747,996 7,075,671 (16,882,013) (24,162,585) 39 SSPi Eastern -Antioquia (8.5) 2,019,716 9,095,387 (17,218,786) (41,381,371) Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  12. 12. Conclusions• There are a large number of potential mitigationoptions that could be implemented at the nationallevel, with highly varying degrees of emissionsreductions, and associated costs for implementation Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  13. 13. . Clear goals should be set with anyemissions reduction plan or strategy,and these goals can then be used as criterion for prioritization Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  14. 14. MAC curves are a useful input toevaluating priority interventions,but…….should be interpreted withcaution.Incorrect use of the MAC curve forselecting interventions could lead tofailure to prioritize the mostappropriate interventions. Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  15. 15. Private perspective Publicperspective Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  16. 16. Biophysical efficiency (kg meat) Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  17. 17. Biophysical efficiency (ha) Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  18. 18. Time constrains Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  19. 19. Thanks! Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  20. 20. Business as usual: Agriculture (Colombia) Business as usual: Livestock (Colombia) Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  21. 21. Cost (benefit) -1.000.000 -1.000.000Carbon capture 1 1.000.000 Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  22. 22. Figure 1 - Effect of the emission reduction amount on the cost-effectiveness value.Figure 1a - CEA value against different levels of emission reductionand a constant cost.Figure 1b - Representation of a cost-effectiveness curve Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  23. 23. Figure 2 - Effect of the emission reduction amount on the cost-effectiveness value.Figure 2a - CEA value against different levels of emission reductionand a constant cost.Figure 1b - Representation of a cost-effectiveness curve Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  24. 24. MAC Curve: Silvopastoral Systems Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  25. 25. MAC Curve: Improved Pastures Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  26. 26. MAC Curve: Efficiency of Fertilizer Use in Rice Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
  27. 27. MAC Curve: Mango and Avocado Eco-Efficient Agriculture for the Poor
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