Climate-smart agriculture: Food security in a warmer and more extreme world

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By Bruce Campbell, Director, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. Presented on 25 October 2013 at the Swedish University of Agriculture Sciences (SLU). Watch the recording at http://youtu.be/krBoz2uLUV8

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Climate-smart agriculture: Food security in a warmer and more extreme world

  1. 1.               Climate-­‐smart  agriculture:   Food  security  in  a  warmer  and  more   extreme  world   Supported  by   Led  by   Strategic  partner  
  2. 2. 1.  Warmer and more extreme? 2.  Rising to the challenges? 3.  Linking knowledge and action?
  3. 3. Global  surface   temperature   change  (oC)   Why  the   bother  about   warming?   1       0.8       0.6       0.4       0.2   2003        2006        2009        2012  
  4. 4. Global  surface  temperature  change  (oC)   How  “SkepJcs”  View  Global  Warming            
  5. 5. Global  surface  temperature  change  (oC)   How  “Realists”  View  Global  Warming  
  6. 6. Extremes will intensify warm  spells  or  heat  waves     droughts     heavy  rainfall  events   local  flooding   extreme  coastal  high  water  levels   IPCC,  2012  
  7. 7.    US$  billions  (2010  dollars)     Losses  from  weather-­‐related  disasters  have  increased           Munich  Re,  2011      Overall  Losses   Of  which  insured  losses  
  8. 8. Young scientists may retire before global climate models are good enough for agriculture “Substantial increases in the reliability of projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are not expected any time soon” Richard Washington, University of Oxford GCM errors were often larger than 2 °C for temperature and 20 % for precipitation
  9. 9. ads   nlo  dow 12   ,000 n  20 40 ata  i of  d
  10. 10. How can we rise to the challenges?
  11. 11. 1.  Climate  smart   technologies,  pracGces,  and   porJolios     2.  Climate  informaGon   services  and  climate-­‐ informed  safety  nets   4.  Policies  and  insGtuGons  for   climate-­‐resilient  food  systems  
  12. 12. Climate-­‐smart  agriculture  (CSA)   AdapGve   capacity   ProducGvity   MiGgaGon   Meridian  Ins+tute  2011   •  Synergies  and   trade-­‐offs     •  Principles  and   guidelines  
  13. 13. Developing  climate-­‐smart  technologies:     coffee-­‐banana  intercropping   1.  Understanding  and   improving  technology   2.  Policy   engagement  
  14. 14. 1.  IdenJfy  climate  analogues   One  women’s   present  is   another   women’s  future   2.  Farmer-­‐to-­‐farmer  visits   1 January 2013 3.  Local  adaptaJon  planning  
  15. 15. 2.  Climate  informaGon  services   and  climate-­‐informed  safety  nets  
  16. 16. OpportuniGes  for  managing  the  whole   food  system?   –  BePer  food  security  early  warning?   –  Informing  earlier  intervenGon?   –  Grain,  fodder,  seed  banks?  
  17. 17. weather  index   for  a  crop  in   an  area   technological   innovaJons  to   generate   weather  data   Agriculture  Insurance   Company  of  India   12  million  farmers  &  40  different  crops  insured    
  18. 18. Improving  climate  informaJon   services   •  2012  plans:   –  Reconstruct  historic  weather   –  Rainfall  predictability  in  S.  Asia   –  Climate  informaJon  &  advisory  service  case   studies   –  South-­‐South  knowledge  exchange   STATION   BLENDED   SATELLITE  
  19. 19. Store C: trees, forest, grassland and soils Reduce land cover change 3.  Low  emissions   development   Lower GHG /kg food
  20. 20.   Sustainable  intensificaJon   Cocoa  intensificaJon  on  56,423  ha  =  151,700  ha  forest    
  21. 21. Protocol  for  GHG  emissions  in  smallholder  systems   Heterogenous  landscapes   Mixed  farming  systems   Capacity  strengthening   Methods  and  equipment  
  22. 22. Alternate-­‐Weang-­‐and-­‐Drying     (AWD)   What  are  the  incenGves   for  miGgaGon  acGons?   30%  water   25-­‐50%  GHG   Without  compromising  yield  
  23. 23. 4.  Policies  and  insGtuGons  for   climate-­‐resilient  food  systems  
  24. 24. Three examples: analysis and engagement •  Work with negotiators on the issues holding back agriculture in the UNFCCC •  Establishing a global index of a countries readiness for climate-smart agriculture •  Helping design Nigeria’s climate-smart agricultural policy
  25. 25. Research-­‐informed   development  
  26. 26. Science-­‐policy  plaJorms  
  27. 27. Climate smart villages Scaling up Climate-­‐ smart   technologies   Index-­‐based   insurance   Climate   informaJon   services   Local   adaptaJon   plans   •  Policy •  Private sector •  Development initaitives •  Learning sites •  Multiple partners
  28. 28. Agtrials:  Assembling  public  data  in  a   common  portal     c  w li ub g  p in Go a   at  d ith 20 crops 2483 trials h]p://www.agtrials.org/    
  29. 29. Focusing  on  gender  and   social  differenGaGon  
  30. 30. In  conclusion:   Ø  Climate smart portfolios Ø  Climate information and safety nets Ø  Low emissions options and financing Ø  Policies for resilient food systems Ø  Evidence-based development The  Work  
  31. 31. www.ccafs.cgiar.org   sign  up  for  science,  policy  and  news  e-­‐bulleJns     Twi]er:  @cgiarclimate  

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