Climate-­‐smart	
  agriculture:	
  
Food	
  security	
  in	
  a	
  warmer	
  and	
  more	...
1.  Warmer and more extreme?
2.  Rising to the challenges?
3.  Linking knowledge and
action?
Global	
  surface	
  
temperature	
  
change	
  (oC)	
  

Why	
  the	
  
bother	
  about	
  
warming?	
  

1	
  
	
  
	
  ...
Global	
  surface	
  temperature	
  change	
  (oC)	
  

How	
  “SkepJcs”	
  View	
  Global	
  Warming	
  

	
  	
  	
  	
 ...
Global	
  surface	
  temperature	
  change	
  (oC)	
  

How	
  “Realists”	
  View	
  Global	
  Warming	
  
Extremes will intensify
warm	
  spells	
  or	
  heat	
  waves	
  	
  
droughts	
  	
  
heavy	
  rainfall	
  events	
  
loc...
 	
  US$	
  billions	
  (2010	
  dollars)	
  

	
  
Losses	
  from	
  weather-­‐related	
  disasters	
  have	
  increased	...
Young scientists may retire before global climate
models are good enough for agriculture

“Substantial increases in the re...
ads	
  
nlo
	
  dow 12	
  
,000 n	
  20
40
ata	
  i
of	
  d
How can we
rise to the
challenges?
1.	
  Climate	
  smart	
  
technologies,	
  pracGces,	
  and	
  
porJolios	
  	
  

2.	
  Climate	
  informaGon	
  
servic...
Climate-­‐smart	
  agriculture	
  (CSA)	
  

AdapGve	
  
capacity	
  

ProducGvity	
  

MiGgaGon	
  
Meridian	
  Ins+tute	...
Developing	
  climate-­‐smart	
  technologies:	
  	
  
coffee-­‐banana	
  intercropping	
  

1.	
  Understanding	
  and	
  ...
1.	
  IdenJfy	
  climate	
  analogues	
  

One	
  women’s	
  
present	
  is	
  
another	
  
women’s	
  future	
  

2.	
  F...
2.	
  Climate	
  informaGon	
  services	
  
and	
  climate-­‐informed	
  safety	
  nets	
  
OpportuniGes	
  for	
  managing	
  the	
  whole	
  
food	
  system?	
  
–  BePer	
  food	
  security	
  early	
  warning?	...
weather	
  index	
  
for	
  a	
  crop	
  in	
  
an	
  area	
  

technological	
  
innovaJons	
  to	
  
generate	
  
weathe...
Improving	
  climate	
  informaJon	
  
services	
  
•  2012	
  plans:	
  
–  Reconstruct	
  historic	
  weather	
  
–  Rai...
Store C: trees,
forest, grassland
and soils

Reduce land cover
change

3.	
  Low	
  emissions	
  
development	
  
Lower GH...
 
Sustainable	
  intensificaJon	
  

Cocoa	
  intensificaJon	
  on	
  56,423	
  ha	
  =	
  151,700	
  ha	
  forest	
  	
  
Protocol	
  for	
  GHG	
  emissions	
  in	
  smallholder	
  systems	
  

Heterogenous	
  landscapes	
  
Mixed	
  farming	
...
Alternate-­‐Weang-­‐and-­‐Drying	
  	
  
(AWD)	
  
What	
  are	
  the	
  incenGves	
  
for	
  miGgaGon	
  acGons?	
  

30%...
4.	
  Policies	
  and	
  insGtuGons	
  for	
  
climate-­‐resilient	
  food	
  systems	
  
Three examples: analysis and engagement
•  Work with negotiators on the issues holding back
agriculture in the UNFCCC
•  E...
Research-­‐informed	
  
development	
  
Science-­‐policy	
  plaJorms	
  
Climate smart villages
Scaling up
Climate-­‐
smart	
  
technologies	
  
Index-­‐based	
  
insurance	
  

Climate	
  
infor...
Agtrials:	
  Assembling	
  public	
  data	
  in	
  a	
  
common	
  portal	
  	
  

c	
  w
li
ub
g	
  p
in
Go

a	
  
at
	
 ...
Focusing	
  on	
  gender	
  and	
  
social	
  differenGaGon	
  
In	
  conclusion:	
  

Ø  Climate smart portfolios
Ø  Climate information and
safety nets
Ø  Low emissions options
and ...
www.ccafs.cgiar.org	
  

sign	
  up	
  for	
  science,	
  policy	
  and	
  news	
  e-­‐bulleJns	
  
	
  
Twi]er:	
  @cgiar...
Climate-smart agriculture: Food security in a warmer and more extreme world
Climate-smart agriculture: Food security in a warmer and more extreme world
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Climate-smart agriculture: Food security in a warmer and more extreme world

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By Bruce Campbell, Director, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. Presented on 25 October 2013 at the Swedish University of Agriculture Sciences (SLU). Watch the recording at http://youtu.be/krBoz2uLUV8

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Climate-smart agriculture: Food security in a warmer and more extreme world

  1. 1.               Climate-­‐smart  agriculture:   Food  security  in  a  warmer  and  more   extreme  world   Supported  by   Led  by   Strategic  partner  
  2. 2. 1.  Warmer and more extreme? 2.  Rising to the challenges? 3.  Linking knowledge and action?
  3. 3. Global  surface   temperature   change  (oC)   Why  the   bother  about   warming?   1       0.8       0.6       0.4       0.2   2003        2006        2009        2012  
  4. 4. Global  surface  temperature  change  (oC)   How  “SkepJcs”  View  Global  Warming            
  5. 5. Global  surface  temperature  change  (oC)   How  “Realists”  View  Global  Warming  
  6. 6. Extremes will intensify warm  spells  or  heat  waves     droughts     heavy  rainfall  events   local  flooding   extreme  coastal  high  water  levels   IPCC,  2012  
  7. 7.    US$  billions  (2010  dollars)     Losses  from  weather-­‐related  disasters  have  increased           Munich  Re,  2011      Overall  Losses   Of  which  insured  losses  
  8. 8. Young scientists may retire before global climate models are good enough for agriculture “Substantial increases in the reliability of projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) are not expected any time soon” Richard Washington, University of Oxford GCM errors were often larger than 2 °C for temperature and 20 % for precipitation
  9. 9. ads   nlo  dow 12   ,000 n  20 40 ata  i of  d
  10. 10. How can we rise to the challenges?
  11. 11. 1.  Climate  smart   technologies,  pracGces,  and   porJolios     2.  Climate  informaGon   services  and  climate-­‐ informed  safety  nets   4.  Policies  and  insGtuGons  for   climate-­‐resilient  food  systems  
  12. 12. Climate-­‐smart  agriculture  (CSA)   AdapGve   capacity   ProducGvity   MiGgaGon   Meridian  Ins+tute  2011   •  Synergies  and   trade-­‐offs     •  Principles  and   guidelines  
  13. 13. Developing  climate-­‐smart  technologies:     coffee-­‐banana  intercropping   1.  Understanding  and   improving  technology   2.  Policy   engagement  
  14. 14. 1.  IdenJfy  climate  analogues   One  women’s   present  is   another   women’s  future   2.  Farmer-­‐to-­‐farmer  visits   1 January 2013 3.  Local  adaptaJon  planning  
  15. 15. 2.  Climate  informaGon  services   and  climate-­‐informed  safety  nets  
  16. 16. OpportuniGes  for  managing  the  whole   food  system?   –  BePer  food  security  early  warning?   –  Informing  earlier  intervenGon?   –  Grain,  fodder,  seed  banks?  
  17. 17. weather  index   for  a  crop  in   an  area   technological   innovaJons  to   generate   weather  data   Agriculture  Insurance   Company  of  India   12  million  farmers  &  40  different  crops  insured    
  18. 18. Improving  climate  informaJon   services   •  2012  plans:   –  Reconstruct  historic  weather   –  Rainfall  predictability  in  S.  Asia   –  Climate  informaJon  &  advisory  service  case   studies   –  South-­‐South  knowledge  exchange   STATION   BLENDED   SATELLITE  
  19. 19. Store C: trees, forest, grassland and soils Reduce land cover change 3.  Low  emissions   development   Lower GHG /kg food
  20. 20.   Sustainable  intensificaJon   Cocoa  intensificaJon  on  56,423  ha  =  151,700  ha  forest    
  21. 21. Protocol  for  GHG  emissions  in  smallholder  systems   Heterogenous  landscapes   Mixed  farming  systems   Capacity  strengthening   Methods  and  equipment  
  22. 22. Alternate-­‐Weang-­‐and-­‐Drying     (AWD)   What  are  the  incenGves   for  miGgaGon  acGons?   30%  water   25-­‐50%  GHG   Without  compromising  yield  
  23. 23. 4.  Policies  and  insGtuGons  for   climate-­‐resilient  food  systems  
  24. 24. Three examples: analysis and engagement •  Work with negotiators on the issues holding back agriculture in the UNFCCC •  Establishing a global index of a countries readiness for climate-smart agriculture •  Helping design Nigeria’s climate-smart agricultural policy
  25. 25. Research-­‐informed   development  
  26. 26. Science-­‐policy  plaJorms  
  27. 27. Climate smart villages Scaling up Climate-­‐ smart   technologies   Index-­‐based   insurance   Climate   informaJon   services   Local   adaptaJon   plans   •  Policy •  Private sector •  Development initaitives •  Learning sites •  Multiple partners
  28. 28. Agtrials:  Assembling  public  data  in  a   common  portal     c  w li ub g  p in Go a   at  d ith 20 crops 2483 trials h]p://www.agtrials.org/    
  29. 29. Focusing  on  gender  and   social  differenGaGon  
  30. 30. In  conclusion:   Ø  Climate smart portfolios Ø  Climate information and safety nets Ø  Low emissions options and financing Ø  Policies for resilient food systems Ø  Evidence-based development The  Work  
  31. 31. www.ccafs.cgiar.org   sign  up  for  science,  policy  and  news  e-­‐bulleJns     Twi]er:  @cgiarclimate  
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