Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification<br />Mark New<br />
Approaches to Intensification<br />Grow crops in new areas<br />Improve productivity in existing areas<br />Multiple cropp...
Climate Change Uncertainty<br />
Uncertainty Increases as Function of… <br />Spatial scale<br />Global -> regional -> local<br />Temporal scale<br />Decada...
IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Skill<br />
IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Projections<br />
Does Downscaling “Add Value”?<br />300km Global Model<br />50km Regional Model<br />Observed 10km<br />25km Regional Model...
Does Downscaling “Add Value”?<br />10 RCMs, driven by the same GCM<br />
Climate Uncertainty is Here to Stay<br />In the near term<br />Internal variability<br />Model uncertainty<br />Longer ter...
So What are the Options?Climate Compatible Intensification<br />Strategies that are robust across climate uncertainties<br...
Better Analysis of Climate Model Data<br />Model evaluation and filtering with agriculturally relevant indices<br />
Model Evaluation & Filtering<br />
Analysis of New Climate Model Data<br />New Centennial GCM Projections<br />Multi GCM-RCM ensembles – CORDEX<br />New deca...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification - Mark New

0 views
903 views

Published on

Presentation by Mark New, CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 10th June 2011

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
0
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification - Mark New

  1. 1. Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification<br />Mark New<br />
  2. 2. Approaches to Intensification<br />Grow crops in new areas<br />Improve productivity in existing areas<br />Multiple cropping<br />Improved or different crop varieties<br />Enhanced inputs – irrigation, fertiliser, etc.<br />Better farm management<br />Economic and institutional incentives<br />Climate change may limit or enable intensification<br />
  3. 3. Climate Change Uncertainty<br />
  4. 4. Uncertainty Increases as Function of… <br />Spatial scale<br />Global -> regional -> local<br />Temporal scale<br />Decadal -> annual -> monthly -> daily<br />Means -> variance -> extreme events<br />Process complexity<br />Temperature -> humidity -> precipitation<br />Tropics -> mid-latitudes -> sub-tropics<br />
  5. 5. IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Skill<br />
  6. 6. IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Projections<br />
  7. 7. Does Downscaling “Add Value”?<br />300km Global Model<br />50km Regional Model<br />Observed 10km<br />25km Regional Model<br />
  8. 8. Does Downscaling “Add Value”?<br />10 RCMs, driven by the same GCM<br />
  9. 9. Climate Uncertainty is Here to Stay<br />In the near term<br />Internal variability<br />Model uncertainty<br />Longer term<br />Scenario / forcing uncertainty<br />Model uncertainty<br />Downscaling<br />Improved understanding of uncertainty? <br />
  10. 10. So What are the Options?Climate Compatible Intensification<br />Strategies that are robust across climate uncertainties<br />Portfolios of crop varieties or generalist crops<br />Flexibility in options to avoid maladaptation<br />Enhance resilience / productivity to current climate stresses<br />Risk management – learning from seasonal forecasting<br />Informed by appropriate analysis of climate model data<br />
  11. 11. Better Analysis of Climate Model Data<br />Model evaluation and filtering with agriculturally relevant indices<br />
  12. 12. Model Evaluation & Filtering<br />
  13. 13. Analysis of New Climate Model Data<br />New Centennial GCM Projections<br />Multi GCM-RCM ensembles – CORDEX<br />New decadal forecasts<br />

×