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Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification - Mark New
 

Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification - Mark New

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Presentation by Mark New, CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 10th June 2011

Presentation by Mark New, CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 10th June 2011

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    Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification - Mark New Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification - Mark New Presentation Transcript

    • Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification
      Mark New
    • Approaches to Intensification
      Grow crops in new areas
      Improve productivity in existing areas
      Multiple cropping
      Improved or different crop varieties
      Enhanced inputs – irrigation, fertiliser, etc.
      Better farm management
      Economic and institutional incentives
      Climate change may limit or enable intensification
    • Climate Change Uncertainty
    • Uncertainty Increases as Function of…
      Spatial scale
      Global -> regional -> local
      Temporal scale
      Decadal -> annual -> monthly -> daily
      Means -> variance -> extreme events
      Process complexity
      Temperature -> humidity -> precipitation
      Tropics -> mid-latitudes -> sub-tropics
    • IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Skill
    • IGP Monsoon Rainfall – GCM Projections
    • Does Downscaling “Add Value”?
      300km Global Model
      50km Regional Model
      Observed 10km
      25km Regional Model
    • Does Downscaling “Add Value”?
      10 RCMs, driven by the same GCM
    • Climate Uncertainty is Here to Stay
      In the near term
      Internal variability
      Model uncertainty
      Longer term
      Scenario / forcing uncertainty
      Model uncertainty
      Downscaling
      Improved understanding of uncertainty?
    • So What are the Options?Climate Compatible Intensification
      Strategies that are robust across climate uncertainties
      Portfolios of crop varieties or generalist crops
      Flexibility in options to avoid maladaptation
      Enhance resilience / productivity to current climate stresses
      Risk management – learning from seasonal forecasting
      Informed by appropriate analysis of climate model data
    • Better Analysis of Climate Model Data
      Model evaluation and filtering with agriculturally relevant indices
    • Model Evaluation & Filtering
    • Analysis of New Climate Model Data
      New Centennial GCM Projections
      Multi GCM-RCM ensembles – CORDEX
      New decadal forecasts