Mitigation Research Findings National Policy Workshop
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Results from Mitigation research for presentation by Lini Wollenberg in policy workshops, West Africa, June 2011. 

Results from Mitigation research for presentation by Lini Wollenberg in policy workshops, West Africa, June 2011. 

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  • Biomass burning and wind born dust (increased by desertification and soil degradation) produce aerosols that add to warming.
  • In this report we were unable to detail emissions associated with rice cultivation due to the inability to define area of rice cultivation and rice cultivation practices. Worldwide it is estimated that rice production is responsible for about 25% of anthropogenic CH4 emissions (Denman et al. 2007).
  • Livestock 83% total, fertilizer 0.7%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 4%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely
  • the top 30 cm of soil (recommended depth for such analysis and likely to persist for 20 yr only; according to the IPCC 2006)The estimates given above in section 5.1 indicate that the mitigation potential from changing tillage practices directly correlates with the level of inputs with shifts from low to high inputs with manure providing the greatest mitigation potential.
  • However, it is unclear what actual tillage/input combinations are currently practiced in the focal countries and what the potential is for change, including how to overcome economic and cultural barriers.
  • Livestock 83% total, fertilizer 0.7%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 4%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely
  • Livestock 83% total, fertilizer 0.7%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 4%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely
  • Livestock 83% total, fertilizer 0.7%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 4%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely
  • Map 2.7. Areas where maximum temperature during the primary growing season is currently < 300C but will flip to > 300 C by 2050 (during the primary growing season).Map 2.3.Areas that will flip from LGP >120 days in the 2000s to LGP < 120 days by 2050

Mitigation Research Findings National Policy Workshop Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Mitigation Research Findings National Policy Workshop, June 2011,
  • 2. Agricultural GHG emissions (IPCC)• 10–12% global anthropogenic GHG emissions, 6.8 Gt of CO2e• HIGHER than transport, power and industrial sectors• 74% from developing countries (increasing)Indirect• Land use change 17- 18% - higher than all direct agricultural sources
  • 3. Africa’s Low Contribution to GHG EmissionsUSA = 22 tUK = 8.9 tSouth Africa = 8.3 tLibya = 8tGabon = 2.9 t Africa’s contribution to greenhouseChina = 2.8 tgases is insignificant, except for landZimbabwe = 2.6 tuse changeNigeria = 1.6 t Agriculture: Highest emitters: SouthKenya = 0.3 tAsia, Southeast Asia and LatinTanzania = 0.2 tAmericaBurkina Faso = 0.1 t Source: Ange, FARA 2010, 1997 data
  • 4. Emissions from land use change in Africa• Most CO2 from land use changes (17% of total GHG emissions) originates from the tropics (8.5Gt CO2e/yr)• Africa contributes 20%• 50% of annual global carbon from burning natural vegetation is from Africa.• Wind born dust (increased by desertification and soil degradation) adds to effect of warming. Source: Ange, FARA 2010
  • 5. Managing mitigation and food security • Improve emissions estimates & baselines • Estimate mitigation potential • Management implications Winrock International: Sandra Brown, Alex Grais, Stephen Ambagis, and Timothy Pearson
  • 6. Improved emissions calculations• Remote sensing data for land area (2006)• Activity data on GHG sources, e.g., livestock numbers, fertilizer consumption• Emission factors for GHG sources• Combine activity data with emission factors to produce estimates of GHG emissions for agriculture
  • 7. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from NEast Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,
  • 8. Increases in cropland area West Africa 2001-2006
  • 9. Area of grazing lands burned 2001- 2007 Brown et al, 2011 Burned area data from http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/burnt_areas_L3JRC/GlobalBurnt eas2000-2007.php
  • 10. Reduce soil CO2 emissions?Scenarios• Severely degraded grazing lands ->Improved management with medium or high inputs 2 to 6 tCO2e/ha/yr• Rainfed cultivation with full tillage -> Reduced tillage with different levels of nutrient inputs 0.5 to 5 tCO2e/ha/yr• Reduced tillage rainfed cultivation -> Native ecosystems 1.0 t CO2e/ha/yr to 4.1 t CO2e/ha/yr• Combined mosaic vegetation (shifting cultivation) -> Native ecosystems 1-8 tCO2e/ha/yrif above ground biomass C included: or 5-13 tCO2e/ha/yr
  • 11. Opportunities to reduce emissions or increase sequestration in Mali Management option Mitigation Potential Actions required Livestock High Technical options? Soil C sequestration Moderate Incentives? Monitoring? Reduced burning Moderate Technical options? Land rehabilitation Moderate Investment Fertilizer Low Future efficiencies, sustainable intensification?
  • 12. Questions• Current soil carbon stocks?• Extent of degraded lands?• Effects of changing management? Practicality? Incentives?• Alternatives to burning and better controlling fire?
  • 13. Improving measurement• Reduce scale of analysis and focus on key agricultural areas of each country• Use higher resolution remote sensing data for more accurate data on land cover/land use and area burned• Improve monitoring of activities: – number of ruminant animals – quantity of N fertilizer used – carbon stocks of burned areas of grazing lands
  • 14. Other research relevant to Mali• Baseline emissions and scenarios–site level• GHG quantification - Simple and cost effective MRV - Livestock system inventory methods - Regional capacity building• Incentives - Costs, benefits and adoption barriers - Delivery mechanisms
  • 15. Other CCAFS research• Improving carbon market benefits forfarmers – EcoAgriculture Partners+, E.Africa + CCI• Intensification of cocoa farming toreduce deforestation ( IITA, Ghana)•Role of agriculture in national REDD+readiness proposals – Gabrielle Kissinger
  • 16. Role of agriculture in REDD+2011Source:Kissinger
  • 17. Improving benefits from carbon market projects involving farmer7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF:• Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana• Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya•Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, Ethiopia•Ecotrust, NFA, UgandaLessons -Real benefits from yields, not payments ($2/yr) - Need to decrease costs and risks - Pre-existing institutions, upfront finance critical -Monitoring livelihoods not a priority
  • 18. Other research relevant to West Africa Mali• Role of agriculture in national REDD+readiness proposals – Gabrielle Kissinger• Improving carbon market benefits forfarmers – EcoAgriculture Partners+, Africa• Intensification of cocoa farming toreduce deforestation ( IITA, Ghana)
  • 19. Mapped distribution of increases incropland area for East Africa 2001 - 2006 Brown et al, 2011
  • 20. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from NEast Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,
  • 21. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from NEast Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,
  • 22. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 tCO2e from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from NEast Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,5
  • 23. Mapping vulnerability to climate changePa = pasture, Cr = irrigated cropping, Lg = length of growing period >= 60 days.
  • 24. Evaluation of Forest Carbon Partnership Facility R-PPs: GhanaIs proposed REDD+ strategy adequate to affect agriculturaldrivers • Need more info: clearer after policy studies completed • Mainstream REDD+ in new low carbon growth plan • Reform tree tenure and benefit sharing for smallholders • Promote cocoa compatible with REDD+, e.g. shade tolerant spp.Are there clear enough multisectoral links to affect agriculturaldrivers? • ENRAC and National Climate Change Committee well positioned • How will low carbon growth plan support coordination? (spatial plans, legal tools) Kissinger 2011