Outline<br />Challenges addressed<br />Program design<br />Progress (Themes)<br />Cross-cutting issues<br />CGIAR reform <...
Challenge 1:<br />Food security<br />
Challenge 2: Adaptation<br />
Length of growing season is likely to decline..<br />Length of growing period (%) <br />>20% loss<br />5-20% loss<br />No ...
Food prices are likely to increase…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize                   Rice               Wheat<...
Climate change will add greatly to price increases…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize                   Rice     ...
Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint<br />
Safe operating space<br />Ocean acidification<br />Role of Agriculture<br />Nitrogen cycle<br />Climate change<br />Phosph...
Program     <br />   Design<br />
CCAFS: the partnership<br />
CCAFS objectives<br />Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agr...
The CCAFS Framework<br />Adapting Agriculture to<br />Climate Variability and Change<br />Technologies, practices, partner...
Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis</li></ul>Trade-offs and Synergies<br />Enhanced adaptive capacity<br /> in agricul...
Place-based field work<br />Indo-Gangetic Plains:<br />Parts of India,  Bangladesh, Nepal<br />West Africa:<br />Senegal, ...
Progress<br />
Adaptation<br />To Progressive<br />Climate Change <br />
Objective One: <br />Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies<br />Objective Two: <br ...
Farms of the future<br /><ul><li>The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspon...
Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Joint s...
Breeders (CGIAR & NARES) have met to set priorities for this Objective</li></li></ul><li>Climate Change and Rural Institut...
        Managing Climate Risk<br />
Objective One: <br />Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) <br />Objective Two: <br />Food delivery, trade, and cris...
Indexed insurance<br /><ul><li>  Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance (with CRP2)
 Initial testing with ILRI in East Africa at dryland sites in Kenya and Ethiopia</li></li></ul><li>Improved use of climate...
WMO</li></li></ul><li>From satellite to cell phone?<br />% of households<br />
Pro-poor<br />  Mitigation<br />
Objective One: <br />Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways<br />Objective Two: <br />Develop incentives an...
Mitigation possibilities<br />Synthesis reports and data for IPCC and national and regional bodies<br />Livestock, agricul...
Carbon project action research<br />What CCAFS outputs?<br />Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models acros...
  Strong demand from carbon project managers</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Earthscan book of current knowledge (FAO)
Network of PhDs on GHGs from agriculture (LIFE-facilitated)
Series of activities on REDD+/forestry</li></li></ul><li>Integration<br />For Decision-Making<br />
Objective One: <br />Linking knowledge with action<br />Objective Two: <br />Data and tools for analysis and planning<br /...
Participatory Action Research<br />
™<br />MarkSim<br />Downscaled climate data<br />Select climate model <br />(6 options or their avg)<br />Select emissions...
International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security   CAAS-IFPRI, Beijing, Nov<br />Report on “Climate Change and...
Cross-cutting principles<br />
Building a user-driven agenda<br />From local to regional to global<br /><ul><li>From large-scale stakeholder consultation...
Social differentiation and gender<br /><ul><li> Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilit...
30% of CCAFS research budget – mainstreamed
Training Manual - How to carry out gender-responsive and socially-sensitive climate change research (FAO)
“Gender teams” in PAR
Research grants to local female PhD-level researchers looking at gender-CC issues</li></li></ul><li>Outreach and communica...
Measuring impact <br />Household survey: <br />Covering 3 regions, 12 countries, 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 househ...
The AMKN Platform<br />Portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge<br />http://amkn.org<br />
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CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) - An Overview

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CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) - An Overview

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  • Agriculture stands at the nexus of three major challenges of the 21st century.One of these is related to food security – 1 billion hungry people; 2 billion suffer micro-nutrient deficiencies
  • The second grand challenge is adaptation to climate change
  • If I have to capture that in a single figure then this is it. Four degree world - Pessimistic but not at all an unrealistic outcome
  • Here we have price rises to 2050 for three economic scenarios, an optimistic, baseline and pessimistic one.For maize, rice and wheat. The green is the impact due to economic and demographic changes, the red …..Projections suggest that food prices are likely to increase considerably in the 21st century; this is unlike what happened in the 20th century, where prices fell or remained constant.And this is for an optimistic temperature rise – a two degree world
  • And the third grand challenge is to
  • Challenge Program then CGIAR Research ProgramTheme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutesNew way of working – deliberately networked
  • (Version WITH regional director names)
  • In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.
  • In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.
  • Brought together all the main players setting up community carbon projects in West and East AfricaIdentified research needs – institutional models, how they might work best for efficiency, equity
  • Wide set of CG and ESSP partners writing book chapters for Earthscan; covering the range of ag sectors including livestock and fisheriesSimilarly full range of lessons from REDD+: technical options, “measurement, reporting and verification” (MRV), finance, institutions, incentives-Using  modeling, remote sensing data and data on farmers&apos; management practices, Winrock International and Applied GeoSolutions are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating scenarios of different mitigation strategies  consistent with maintaining food supply.
  • Massive exercise – training of survey teams and partners, multi-lingual survey instrument, large number of households in remote sitesSite selection based on multiple criteria to represent a range of exposure (e.g. predicted changes in rainfall), sensitivity (e.g. livelihood dependence on threatened crops) and capacity to respond (e.g. how well connected by roads) in each regionGraph from all households in three regions in baseline survey shows lower access among female-headed households to modern communications, especially phonesRelevant to many proposed interventions e.g. weather forecasts by cellphoneBaseline has multiple purposes: action research sites particularly for the adaptation themes 1 &amp; 2 (these sites will be matched with analogue sites), better understanding of local and regional differences to guide best-bet technologies and practices to trial in different localities; also as formal baseline for future program assessment.
  • CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) - An Overview

    1. 1.
    2. 2. Outline<br />Challenges addressed<br />Program design<br />Progress (Themes)<br />Cross-cutting issues<br />CGIAR reform <br />
    3. 3. Challenge 1:<br />Food security<br />
    4. 4. Challenge 2: Adaptation<br />
    5. 5. Length of growing season is likely to decline..<br />Length of growing period (%) <br />>20% loss<br />5-20% loss<br />No change<br />5-20% gain<br />>20% gain<br />To 2090, taking 18 climate models<br />Four degree world<br />Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS<br />
    6. 6. Food prices are likely to increase…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize Rice Wheat<br />Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS<br />
    7. 7. Climate change will add greatly to price increases…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize Rice Wheat<br />Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS<br />
    8. 8. Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint<br />
    9. 9. Safe operating space<br />Ocean acidification<br />Role of Agriculture<br />Nitrogen cycle<br />Climate change<br />Phosphorous cycle<br />Current status<br />Biodiversity loss<br />Global freshwater use<br />Change in land use<br />Rockström et al. (2009);<br /> Bennett et al. (in prep.) <br />
    10. 10. Program <br /> Design<br />
    11. 11. CCAFS: the partnership<br />
    12. 12. CCAFS objectives<br />Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.<br />Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.<br />
    13. 13. The CCAFS Framework<br />Adapting Agriculture to<br />Climate Variability and Change<br />Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:<br />Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk<br />Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation<br />Improved Environmental Health<br />Improved Rural Livelihoods<br />Improved Food Security<br />4. Integration for Decision Making<br /><ul><li>Linking Knowledge with Action
    14. 14. Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
    15. 15. Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis</li></ul>Trade-offs and Synergies<br />Enhanced adaptive capacity<br /> in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems<br />
    16. 16. Place-based field work<br />Indo-Gangetic Plains:<br />Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal<br />West Africa:<br />Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger<br />East Africa:<br />Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia<br />
    17. 17. Progress<br />
    18. 18. Adaptation<br />To Progressive<br />Climate Change <br />
    19. 19. Objective One: <br />Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies<br />Objective Two: <br />Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates<br />Objective Three: <br />Integrate adaptation strategies for agricultural and food systems into policy and institutional frameworks<br />
    20. 20. Farms of the future<br /><ul><li>The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
    21. 21. Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Joint staff position between CCAFS and GRiSP
    22. 22. Breeders (CGIAR & NARES) have met to set priorities for this Objective</li></li></ul><li>Climate Change and Rural Institutions<br />DIIS – Danida-supported project<br />Improved adaptation to climate change in rural areas can be enhanced through policy development that stimulates innovation among district-level institutional actors<br />
    23. 23. Managing Climate Risk<br />
    24. 24. Objective One: <br />Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) <br />Objective Two: <br />Food delivery, trade, and crisis response <br />(Food system level) <br />Objective Three: <br />Enhanced climate information and services<br />
    25. 25. Indexed insurance<br /><ul><li> Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance (with CRP2)
    26. 26. Initial testing with ILRI in East Africa at dryland sites in Kenya and Ethiopia</li></li></ul><li>Improved use of climate information by crisis response agencies <br /><ul><li>WFP
    27. 27. WMO</li></li></ul><li>From satellite to cell phone?<br />% of households<br />
    28. 28. Pro-poor<br /> Mitigation<br />
    29. 29. Objective One: <br />Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways<br />Objective Two: <br />Develop incentives and institutional arrangements<br />Objective Three: <br />Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications<br />
    30. 30. Mitigation possibilities<br />Synthesis reports and data for IPCC and national and regional bodies<br />Livestock, agriculture and forestry (ILRI/ICRAF)<br />Aquaculture (WorldFish)<br />Includes capacity building of decision makers in inventories and use of appropriate tools and data<br />
    31. 31. Carbon project action research<br />What CCAFS outputs?<br />Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa<br />Why is it useful?<br /><ul><li> Direct link between research and action
    32. 32. Strong demand from carbon project managers</li></li></ul><li><ul><li>Earthscan book of current knowledge (FAO)
    33. 33. Network of PhDs on GHGs from agriculture (LIFE-facilitated)
    34. 34. Series of activities on REDD+/forestry</li></li></ul><li>Integration<br />For Decision-Making<br />
    35. 35. Objective One: <br />Linking knowledge with action<br />Objective Two: <br />Data and tools for analysis and planning<br />Objective Three: <br />Refining frameworks for policy analysis<br />
    36. 36. Participatory Action Research<br />
    37. 37. ™<br />MarkSim<br />Downscaled climate data<br />Select climate model <br />(6 options or their avg)<br />Select emissions scenario<br />(3 options)<br />Select the centre year of the time slice<br />Select the number of years of data desired<br />Select location <br />
    38. 38. International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security CAAS-IFPRI, Beijing, Nov<br />Report on “Climate Change and Food Security”<br />
    39. 39. Cross-cutting principles<br />
    40. 40. Building a user-driven agenda<br />From local to regional to global<br /><ul><li>From large-scale stakeholder consultations</li></ul>e.g. GCARD, regional meetings<br /><ul><li>Specific exercises with selected groups</li></ul>e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials<br />
    41. 41. Social differentiation and gender<br /><ul><li> Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond
    42. 42. 30% of CCAFS research budget – mainstreamed
    43. 43. Training Manual - How to carry out gender-responsive and socially-sensitive climate change research (FAO)
    44. 44. “Gender teams” in PAR
    45. 45. Research grants to local female PhD-level researchers looking at gender-CC issues</li></li></ul><li>Outreach and communications<br />
    46. 46. Measuring impact <br />Household survey: <br />Covering 3 regions, 12 countries, 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households<br />What is it people are doing to adapt? What groups, information, services are they getting? Gender and age-disaggregated groups<br />www.ccafs.cgiar.org/<br />resources/baseline-surveys<br />
    47. 47. The AMKN Platform<br />Portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge<br />http://amkn.org<br />
    48. 48.
    49. 49. AgClim Letters<br /><ul><li>Strength through variety? Seed systems in future climates
    50. 50. Earth is a small REDD+ planet
    51. 51. Adaptation: all talk and no action?
    52. 52. Emissions efficiency: are some animals more equal than others?
    53. 53. Fertilizing grounds for change in Chinese agriculture
    54. 54. Hamburgers and yamburgers? Four-degree futures for food in Africa</li></li></ul><li>http://www.agricultureday.org/<br />
    55. 55. Becoming the “GO-TO” place<br />
    56. 56. CCAFS most radical reform of all CRPs<br />Program Management Committee inc. non CGIAR personnel<br />Independent Science Panel (strategy-based not Centre-specific mandate based)<br />Competition for Lead Centre<br />15 contributing Centers<br />Program Leader based ‘outside’ a CGIAR centre<br />30% budget to partners<br />
    57. 57. The path forward<br />A new way of working – needs behavioral changes – CCAFS is a high risk strategy<br />Boundary issues amongst CRPs<br />Largest coalition of scientists working on agriculture and climate change in developing countries<br />Challenges<br />Opportunities<br />
    58. 58. Mapping climate-induced food insecurity … together<br /><ul><li>Research by ILRI team for CCAFS Theme 4
    59. 59. Communications efforts led by CCAFS in collaboration with ICRAF, ILRI and CIAT
    60. 60. Outreach, online promotion supported by many CG Centres and partners
    61. 61. Scientists across the CCAFS program gave media interviews in four languages</li></ul>The Result: <br /><ul><li>Online coverage at TIME.com, BBC, Guardian, Reuters, NatureNews, VOA, and more…
    62. 62. Report downloaded 1038 times in first week
    63. 63. Traffic to CCAFS website increased by 500 in 1 week</li></ul>See details at http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/climatehotspots<br />

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