Outline<br />The three challenges<br />Accelerated and transformative adaptation<br />Pro-poor mitigation<br />
Challenge 1:<br />Food security<br />
Challenge 2: Adaptation<br />
Length of growing season is likely to decline..<br />Length of growing period (%) <br />>20% loss<br />5-20% loss<br />No ...
Food prices are likely to increase…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize                   Rice               Wheat<...
Climate change will add greatly to price increases…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize                   Rice     ...
Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint<br />
Safe operating space<br />Ocean acidification<br />Role of Agriculture<br />Nitrogen cycle<br />Climate change<br />Phosph...
Food Security<br />Fertiliser subsidies<br />Mitigation<br />Restoration of degraded lands <br />Adaptation<br />Meridian ...
1. Accelerated and transformative adaptation<br />
Australian wine industry<br /><ul><li>Relocation of grape production or wineries to cooler regions
Shifts to other crops
Diversification</li></ul>Parks et al CSIRO<br />
Farms of the future<br /><ul><li>Climate analogues
Farmer networks
Policy framework</li></li></ul><li>2. Pro-poor   Mitigation<br />
….. are there green development pathways that don’t compromise food security ?<br />Wassmann et al. (2010) IRRI/CCAFS<br />
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The agricultural trilemma

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Presentation by Bruce Campbell, Program Director CCAFS

Ottawa, September 2011

Published in: Education, Technology
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  • The three challenges facing agricultureAnd then two areas that need much more attention;Given that I will only be 10 mins I will necessarily be brief
  • Agriculture stands at the nexus of three major challenges of the 21st century.One of these is related to food security – 1 billion hungry people; 2 billion suffer micro-nutrient deficiencies
  • The second grand challenge is adaptation to climate change
  • If I have to capture that in a single figure then this is it. Four degree world - Pessimistic but not at all an unrealistic outcome
  • Here we have price rises to 2050 for three economic scenarios, an optimistic, baseline and pessimistic one.For maize, rice and wheat. The green is the impact due to economic and demographic changes, the red …..Projections suggest that food prices are likely to increase considerably in the 21st century; this is unlike what happened in the 20th century, where prices fell or remained constant.And this is for an optimistic temperature rise – a two degree world
  • And the thrid grand challenge is to
  • So, we have three grand challenges.A key focus of CCAFS is understanding the synergies and trade-offs amongst these objecives, working from plot to global levels
  • ETS =Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)One prediction is that demand will double by 2020
  • The agricultural trilemma

    1. 1.
    2. 2. Outline<br />The three challenges<br />Accelerated and transformative adaptation<br />Pro-poor mitigation<br />
    3. 3. Challenge 1:<br />Food security<br />
    4. 4. Challenge 2: Adaptation<br />
    5. 5. Length of growing season is likely to decline..<br />Length of growing period (%) <br />>20% loss<br />5-20% loss<br />No change<br />5-20% gain<br />>20% gain<br />To 2090, taking 18 climate models<br />Four degree world<br />Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS<br />
    6. 6. Food prices are likely to increase…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize Rice Wheat<br />Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS<br />
    7. 7. Climate change will add greatly to price increases…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize Rice Wheat<br />Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS<br />
    8. 8. Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint<br />
    9. 9. Safe operating space<br />Ocean acidification<br />Role of Agriculture<br />Nitrogen cycle<br />Climate change<br />Phosphorous cycle<br />Current status<br />Biodiversity loss<br />Global freshwater use<br />Change in land use<br />Rockström et al. (2009);<br /> Bennett et al. (in prep.) <br />
    10. 10. Food Security<br />Fertiliser subsidies<br />Mitigation<br />Restoration of degraded lands <br />Adaptation<br />Meridian Institute 2011<br />
    11. 11. 1. Accelerated and transformative adaptation<br />
    12. 12. Australian wine industry<br /><ul><li>Relocation of grape production or wineries to cooler regions
    13. 13. Shifts to other crops
    14. 14. Diversification</li></ul>Parks et al CSIRO<br />
    15. 15. Farms of the future<br /><ul><li>Climate analogues
    16. 16. Farmer networks
    17. 17. Policy framework</li></li></ul><li>2. Pro-poor Mitigation<br />
    18. 18. ….. are there green development pathways that don’t compromise food security ?<br />Wassmann et al. (2010) IRRI/CCAFS<br />
    19. 19. Growth in carbon market<br />
    20. 20. <ul><li>Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV)
    21. 21. Incentives and institutional models
    22. 22. Work on numerous technical practices..</li></li></ul><li>Thank you<br />www.ccafs.cgiar.org<br />sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins <br />
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