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Campbell B: Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity

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Presentation on Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity by CCAFS Director Bruce Campbell.

Presentation on Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity by CCAFS Director Bruce Campbell.

Published in: Environment, Technology

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  • 1. Climate Change, Food Security and Diversity Bruce Campbell, Director, CCAFS
  • 2. 1. Climate change impacts on agriculture 2. The global challenges for food and nutritional security 3. Climate-smart agriculture 4. Diversity as a key to adaptation
  • 3. IPCC AR5 in April 2014: global diagnosis for the next seven years?
  • 4. Working Group 2 Chapter 7 (Chapter 19) Working Group 3 Chapter 11
  • 5. Chapter 7
  • 6. • Global surface temperature change likely to exceed 1.5 C by 2100 • Large spatial and temporal variability • Extreme events will increase
  • 7. Evidence that yields losses occur already Lobell et al 2011
  • 8. Cheung et al 2010
  • 9. Warren et al 2013 Major biodiversity loss predicted Plant Proportion of species losing >50% of range 20802050 Year Animal 2020 20802050 Year 2020
  • 10. 2. The global challenges for food and nutritional security
  • 11. 1.5 billion people depend on Degraded Land USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010) 1 billion more People by 2030 1.4 billion living in Poverty 14% more Food needed per decade Nearly 1 billion going Hungry
  • 12. Sustainable Development Goals (2030) • End extreme poverty, including absolute income poverty ($1.25 or less per day). • End hunger and achieve food security, appropriate nutrition, and zero child stunting Aspiration: Half a billion small-scale producers with enhanced resilience to climate change by 2030
  • 13. Are these targets insurmountable? “63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in the next decade is easy!” 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Relative2012=100% Food demand Grain yield per ha GDP Cell phone penetration Global Harvest Initiative 2013 FAOSTAT World Bank/Standard Chartered GSMA/Deloitte Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 14. And with reduced emissions from Ag Gt CO2e per year 12 15 36 70 2010 2050 (Business as usual) 2050 (2°C target) Non-agricultural emissions Agricultural and land-use change emissions >70% 48 85 21 After World Bank (2014)
  • 15. 3. Climate-smart agriculture
  • 16. services Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) landscapes crops livestock fish food system Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT policies peatlands seascapes forests
  • 17. technological innovations to generate weather data Greater focus on climate risk management Forecasting From satellite to cell phone Risk insurance Rapid payments so assets are protected Productive social safety nets Build assets; protect from extremes That cope with extremes Technologies and practices
  • 18. Alternate wetting and drying in rice
  • 19. Integrated solutions: Climate- smart villages
  • 20. 4. Diversity as a key to adaptation
  • 21. CSA options for food systems food system More creative and efficient use of by-products Less energy- intensity in fertilizer production Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport (e.g. roads, ports) Changing and diversifying diets Greater attention to food safety Reducing post- harvest losses & consumer wastage
  • 22. CSA options for landscapes landscapes Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning) Manage livestock & wildlife over wide areas Increase cover of trees and perennials Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands, grasslands and watersheds Creating diversity of land uses Harvest floods & manage groundwater Address coastal salinity & sea surges Protect against large- scale erosion
  • 23. CSA options for crops, fields and farms crops Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species and cultivars Altering cropping patterns & planting dates Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing Improved water use efficiency (irrigation systems, water micro- harvesting) Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases On-farm biodiversity, agroforestry, intercropping
  • 24. Role of crop diversity • Outer limits of heat, drought, waterlogging, salinity …… • Useful source of traits to adapt to changing climatic conditions • Must look beyond our current genetic resource base
  • 25. Priority 1: Conserving, collecting and pre- breeding crop wild relatives But where do we start?
  • 26. Priority 2: Tackle the policy challenges • Simplified production systems • Seed policies that focus on few crops/varieties • Greater genetic resource interdependence between countries • Rarely integrated into national adaptation strategies
  • 27. Strategic Action Plan to Conserve and Use Mesoamerica Plant Genetic Resources • 10 year road map • Comprises 64 actions under 6 themes • Covers 10 crops and their wild relatives • Adopted by Ministers of CAC, with IICA support • Resulted in numerous activities at country level
  • 28. Priority 3: ‘Seeds for Needs’ Crop suitability Geographic information Genebank accession collection coordinates Climate change data
  • 29. 3. Farmers test and report back by mobile phone 2. Each farmer gets a different combination of varieties 4. Environmental data (GPS, sensors) to assess adaptation 1. A broad set of varieties 6. Data are used to detect demand for new varieties and traits Participatory evaluation 5. Farmers receive tailored variety recommendations and can order seeds
  • 30. • Indian Agriculture Research Institute • Directorate of Wheat Research • Humana People to People • Gene Campaign • Ashok Sansthan • Nand Educational Foundation for Rural Development 30 farmers 2011  5000 in 2013 UPSCALING (Min of Agric; GiZ…..)
  • 31. Closing remarks
  • 32. Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal 2 million farmers get forecasts 15 community radio stations better food security outcomes
  • 33. Towards more transformative change
  • 34. We can do it! Diversity and diversification Major impacts Transformative change Severe targets
  • 35. www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for blogs and news e-bulletins Twitter: @bcampbell_CGIAR @cgiarclimate Increased investment in climate-smart agriculture will ensure global peace, equity and prosperity

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