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Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation
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Asaduzzaman - Bangladesh mitigation

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Mohammed Asaduzzaman, Mitigation in Bangladesh's National Climate Change Action Plan (presentation from Mitigation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

Mohammed Asaduzzaman, Mitigation in Bangladesh's National Climate Change Action Plan (presentation from Mitigation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)

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  • 1. Low Carbon Development in Bangladesh:Agriculture & BCCSAP 2009 M. Asaduzzaman Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies Dhaka Presented at Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Agriculture Science Workshop Playa del Carmen, Mexico December 1, 2010
  • 2. Trend in Rice Output by SeasonOver time boro, Aus Aman Boro Ricedry period 35irrigated rice has 30gained 25prominence in Million mt 20area & output– 15rainfed aus has 10lost out. Aman, 5part rainfed-partirrigated, area & 0 19 19 5 19 7 19 9 19 1 19 3 19 5 19 7 20 9 20 1 20 3 20 5 20 7output remain 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 /8 /8 /8 /9 /9 /9 /9 /9 /0 /0 /0 /0 /09largely static
  • 3. Despite Growth Seasonal Rice Output Remains Volatile Total-p Aman-p Boro-p 40Seasonal rice Percent change year on year 30outputs are 20volatile - 10aman output 0growth may -10often be -20negative 1978-79 1980-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09
  • 4. Mechanisation and ownership of equipments in agriculture Marginal Small Medium Large 100% 80% Percent farms 60% 40% 20% 0% Tractors PT DTW STW LLP
  • 5. Irrigation trends by mode DTW STW LLP Manual Traditional Major Canal TotalMainly mechanised 6000ground waterirrigation helped 5000dry periodcultivation – diesel 4000 Area (k ha)operated shallow 3000tube wells are the 2000mainstay of thesystem. Surface 1000irrigation with low 0lift pumps are more 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 /07 / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06site-specific 19
  • 6. Fuel choice by Mode of irrigation Diesel Electric 5000 4000 3000 Th ha 2000 1000 0 DTW STW LLP Total
  • 7. Direct Energy Use in Rice Production• Lifting water for irrigation and mechanised tillage are main activities using energy – diesel and electricity in case of former and diesel in the second case• Harvesting is manual – husking is manual, mechanised and also through small and large rice mills which uses biomass, electricty and diesel for boilers and motors• Long distance transport with motorised means is common for marketing• Apart from production, knowledge of energy use in other cases is limited – yet even here energy use may be inefficient as is the case in say irrigation
  • 8. Indirect Use of Energy in Crop ProductionUrea is the main Urea TSP SSP DAP MOP Totalfertiliser in use – 4000mainly from 3500domestic 3000production using 2500 Th mtnatural gas. 2000Others are 1500mainly imported. 1000Sales of urea 500show the most 0 1980-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07prominentupward trend
  • 9. Irrigation efficiency of Diesel- operated STW (ha/machine)Inefficiency in 12irrigation may bequite widespread 10as the graph 8indicates 6although part maybe explained by 4soil quality and 2other such factors 0
  • 10. Policy Environment• Spread of irrigation, fertiliser use and mechanised tillage all facilitated over time by policies to encourage their use• Inputs subsidy – fertiliser, diesel and electricity for irrigation• Previously diesel prices were not subsidised but fixed by Government resulting in lower prices relative to rice due to rising rice prices and thus encouraging its increasing use - for electricity the prices were subsidised and nominally fixed lowering its relative price over time as next two slides show• On the other hand, substantial reduction in public expenditure on research, extension and marketing in recent past as shown later
  • 11. Price movement of Diesel 45 180 40 160 35 140 Index Jan 2002 = 100 30 120 25 100Taka 20 80 15 60 10 40 5 20 0 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Wholesale Coarse Rice (Tk/kg) Diesel (Tk/liter) Diesel / Wholesale Rice (Jan 2002=100)
  • 12. Movement in electricity prices Electricty price Rice price Index 25 140 120 20 100 Index (2002=100) 15 80 Price 10 60 40 5 20 0 0 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY2007 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
  • 13. Investment Trends in R&D, Extension and Marketing ALL NOMINAL ALL REAL DAM-N DAM-R DAE-N DAE-R 3000 7000 2500 6000 5000 2000Million Taka Mn Taka 4000 1500 3000 1000 2000 500 1000 0 0 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 -0 0 -0 1 -0 2 -0 3 -0 4 -0 5 -0 6 -0 7 -0 8 -0 9 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
  • 14. Climate Change and Bangladesh• Impact of climate change in general and on agriculture, role of agriculture in GHG emission, and response of Bangladesh to these issues have to be seen against these backdrops
  • 15. Losses in Agricultural GDP due to Climatic Factors Now and in FutureCost of present climatevariability - 7.4% output/yrmainly due to lower borooutput. SW coast to beworst affected.Future CC lowers outputfurther by nearly 4%/yr.GDP loss - US$ 26 bn forag & US$ 121 for nationalover 2005-50 due presentvariability. CC to add morelosses of US$7.7 and 26 bn.
  • 16. Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009• A consequence of 1/CP13• BAP• 4 inviolate principles - – Food security – Water security – Energy security – Livelihood (incl health) security• Six pillars, 34 programme areas• One pillar is low carbon development• Should be read along with food security theme and Research and Knowledge Management themes
  • 17. Research Principles• From food security view point emphasis on development and popularisation of various stress- tolerant varieties• From low carbon view point, lowering emission in agriculture• From livelihood view point, stress on protection of employment, income and livelihood particularly of poor, women and those in ecologically fragile areas• From water security view point, water use must be absolute minimum without waste• From energy security view point, minimum energy needs must be fulfilled• Each can be done separately; but not a desirable solution• Challenge is to satisfy each condition
  • 18. Challenges• Mitigation in agriculture without adaptation will threaten food security• Adaptation without mitigation will raise cost of production and food will be costlier• Mitigation & adaptation get intertwined and must be addressed in this situation simultaneously• Both require that water use be economized through choice of crops, new agronomic practices, development of drought-tolerant or escaping varieties, etc so that while energy use is lowered food production does not fall
  • 19. Immediate Research Needs• Development of stress tolerant varieties-some such as shorter duration, drought tolerance, heat tolerance to lower energy needs and GHG emission• Development of CC-smart cropping systems• Extension and diffusion issues• Reexamination of subsidy issues to lower wasteful water, energy use• Stabilise rainfed rice output so that irrigated rice dependence for food security lessened & energy needs and emission lowered• Lowering irrigation water needs• Lowering of indirect energy needs
  • 20. Capacity-building needs• Capacity and technology needs assessment to be done• Capacity of National Agricultural research System to be a priority, particularly for research with complex and intertwined goals• Development and transfer of cost-effective technology• And of course financing the whole research and related activities• Given the slow pace of CC negotiations, a new or parallel paradigm of global cooperation needs to be established
  • 21. THANK YOU

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