Adaptation Measures to Climate Change in Drylands

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Presentation by Thomas Rosswall,
Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel to the International Conference on Food Security in Dry Lands (FSDL). 14 November 2012, Doha, Qatar.

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Adaptation Measures to Climate Change in Drylands

  1. 1. Adaptation Measures toClimate Changein Drylands Thomas Rosswall Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel
  2. 2. Climate Change and Drylands Change in mean annualprecipitation (1980s to 2080s)
  3. 3. Areas experiencing a more than 5%decrease in length growing period by 2050
  4. 4. Weather catastrophes US$ billion (2010 values) Overall losses Insured lossesSource: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE
  5. 5. Impact of weather shocksOxfam (2012) based on D. Willenbockel (2012)
  6. 6. Historical impacts on wheat (1980-2008) Changes in growing season temperature China India US % Yield impact Russia for wheat France GlobalLobell et al (2011)
  7. 7. Increased Water ScarcityComprehensive Assessment of WaterManagement in Agriculture, 2007
  8. 8. Vulnerability MappingAreas where there is greater than 5% change in LGPEricksen et al., CCAFS, 2011
  9. 9. Adaptation and MitigationAgriculture can contribute to mitigation:• Intensification on current land to avoid deforestation and other land-use changes• Increased storage of C in vegetation and soil• Reduction in N2O and CH4 emissionsThese factors also contribute to adaptation and create a win-win situation
  10. 10. Transformational adaptation inagriculture
  11. 11. Transformation in institutionsthat support agriculturefinance policy incentives
  12. 12. Take action across the whole food system From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012
  13. 13. Large-scale Successes in Food Security and Adaptation/Mitigation• Safety nets •Eathopia: 7 million people, inc. public works: landscape and watershed rehabilitation• Weather-based insurance schemes •India: 9 million farmers• Climate information services •India: 2.5 million farmers• Crop improvement programmes •CIMMYT – 1 million hectares• Landscape restoration (inc. adaptation/mitgation) •Marooco: Maroc Vert – 500.000 hectares •Niger: 5 million hectares
  14. 14. Climate Financing• National governments should commit 10% ofbudget towards agriculture and food securityfollowing the Maputo declaration for Africanstates• Climate change adaptation will be costly –countries driving emissions have a responsibiltyto finance countries impacted by CC•Green Climate Fund must be resourced and beuseful for agriculture
  15. 15. Food Security and COP18COP18 offers a unique opportunity forcountries with extensive drylands to shapethe global climate agenda, and ensure thatfood security gets attention in thenegotiations.A work programme should provide theevidence and methods to achievedevelopment goals of improved foodsecurity, more resilient livelihoods andachieving mitigation goals.
  16. 16. Thank you! Stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.orgsign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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