Adaptation 2
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Presentation from CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 11th June 2011

Presentation from CCAFS Science Workshop, Bonn, 11th June 2011

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    Adaptation 2 Adaptation 2 Presentation Transcript

    • CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK for INVESTIGATING ADEQUACY OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
      CLIMATE DRIVER
      (SLR, Drought, Flood)
      Factors that buffer/accelerate impacts (Matrix at each geographical timescale: global, nat, sub-nat, local)
      • Biophysical (eg: mangrove being decimated)
      • Institutional (no land tenure system)
      • Technological (a dam)
      • Economic (market in place)
      • Social (AIDS? Safety nets?)
      • Policy
      • Culture
      Effects of Climate Impacts & resulting Adaptation strategies on:
      • Governance
      • Livelihoods (food security)
      • Gender relations and social equity
      • Resource Degradation
      • Biogeochemical cycles (feedback loops)
    • Which strategies enhance or retard resilience of small-scale rural producers to climate change?
      Develop/test methodologies for assessing coping and adaptation strategies and their multiple outcomes for food security, environment and livelihoods at the community level
      Evidence-based assessment of coping/adaptation strategies to assess effectiveness of interventions
    • How to do it?
      Step 1 (by Sept end): Meta-analysis of:
      CCAFS baseline surveys of 5000 hhs
      literature of factors associated with coping/adaptation strategies
      gap analysis of methods
      Step 2 (early 2012): Workshop to identify pilot studies in CCAFS regions and refine methodology based on meta-analysis
      Step 3 (mid 2012): Pilot study of communities to develop methodologies (small number)
      Step 4 (end of project): Methods and policy recommendations
    • Criteria for selecting pilot communities (small number as function of $$$)
      Cover 3 CCAF regions
      Use communities/villages where baseline CCAFS has surveyed social capital
      Don’t duplicate other studies
      Cover range of production systems and climate shocks
      Communities where history of adaptation
      ….
    • Pilot study communities
      Disciplines include:
      Climate, adaptation, land use/land cover, institutional/governance, anthropology
      Development, agriculture applications
      Methods include:
      Community vulnerability and capacity assessments (participatory community, focus groups, vulnerability capacity assessment, household surveys)
      Landscape changes (remote sensing)
      climate historical data
      changes in yield/cultivars/traits
      trade-off and synergy analysis
    • What is novel about this proposal?
      Empirical testing of methods to evaluate multiple consequences of coping/adaptation strategies on food security, environment, and livelihoods, including:
      societal consequences of current adaptation strategies, including on food security, gender relations/social equity, local governance
      feedbacks to biogeochemical cycles and land use
      Development of climate-resilient and climate-smart policy recommendations to enhance adaptation at the local level
      Generalizable methods to assess rural producer strategies and their viability with changing climate
    • Truly interdisciplinary (really!)
    • Volunteers for meta-analysis
      Overall: Arame Tall, Ruth DeFries
      Baseline surveys:
      Florence Kyazze, HeznomMogake (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania), Bharat P. Upadhyay (Nepal)
      Literature review:
      AriellaHelfgott, AhsanUddin Ahmed, CheikhMbow (Senegal)
      Methods gap analysis:
      SharmindNeelormi, AhsanUddin Ahmed, AriellaHelfgott, Ruth DeFries (RS)
    • Unresolved
      Partners?
      Research community (PECS?)
      Community-level partners and stakeholders
      • Funders??