Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe:  where next? Simon Pirani Senior Research Fellow Oxford Institute for Energy S...
MAIN POINTS <ul><li>The impact of economic crisis on the European gas market  </li></ul><ul><li>The effect of crisis, and ...
Observed gas demand, OECD Europe  (bcm)  It may return to pre-crisis levels only in 2013-14 Source: IEA
Changes in the European market Oil-linked prices may not be with us forever Source: Howard Rogers (OIES),  Atlantic Basin ...
Natural gas imports to OECD Europe first nine months of the year, Bcm Russia lost market share
A very different outlook for Russia and Gazprom Worries about a ‘supply squeeze’ have gone. Now there are questions about ...
Main sources of supply to Russia’s gas balance, 2008-2009 (bcm)
Turkmen gas exports, 2008-2011 (bcm)
Ukraine after the January 2009 ‘gas war’ <ul><li>Nord Stream will be built and Ukraine’s bargaining power will be reduced ...
Russian gas export capacity to Europe up to 2015: transit via Ukraine could be reduced
Ukraine’s demand collapse, 2009  monthly consumption, as % of same month in 2008 Demand destruction concentrated in indust...
Ukraine’s 2009 gas imports problem was converted into a cash problem ... the IMF counted $3bn Naftogaz operating deficit a...
Europe, Ukraine and Russia:  areas of possible cooperation <ul><li>TRANSIT AND STORAGE: </li></ul><ul><li>How could a cons...
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Presentation 'Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next?' by Simon Pirani, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, at Lviv International Security Forum, 15-16 April, 2010

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  • [email_address] Pleasure to be here.
  • Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
  • Shell Natural Gas Course 3.02
  • Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
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  • Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
  • Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
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  • Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Assoc gas total 45.6 cf 42.1 in 08 +8.2% of which GP 2.2
  • Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Title of Presentation Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
  • Transcript of "Section5 pirani eng"

    1. 1. Natural gas for Ukraine, Russia and Europe: where next? Simon Pirani Senior Research Fellow Oxford Institute for Energy Studies International Security Forum, Lviv, 16 April 2010
    2. 2. MAIN POINTS <ul><li>The impact of economic crisis on the European gas market </li></ul><ul><li>The effect of crisis, and recovery, on Russia and other CIS producers </li></ul><ul><li>Ukraine’s gas trade after the 2009 ‘gas war’ </li></ul><ul><li>Prospects for international cooperation </li></ul>
    3. 3. Observed gas demand, OECD Europe (bcm) It may return to pre-crisis levels only in 2013-14 Source: IEA
    4. 4. Changes in the European market Oil-linked prices may not be with us forever Source: Howard Rogers (OIES), Atlantic Basin LNG / Argus, Gas Matters
    5. 5. Natural gas imports to OECD Europe first nine months of the year, Bcm Russia lost market share
    6. 6. A very different outlook for Russia and Gazprom Worries about a ‘supply squeeze’ have gone. Now there are questions about long-term demand. Gazprom’s big projects are being delayed ... Gazprom will face competition in Europe from LNG... Russia’s dominance in central Asia has been undermined by the Turkmenistan-China pipeline ... In Russia, Gazprom is under pressure from the oil companies and Novatek ...
    7. 7. Main sources of supply to Russia’s gas balance, 2008-2009 (bcm)
    8. 8. Turkmen gas exports, 2008-2011 (bcm)
    9. 9. Ukraine after the January 2009 ‘gas war’ <ul><li>Nord Stream will be built and Ukraine’s bargaining power will be reduced </li></ul><ul><li>Ukraine will pay European-linked prices for imports </li></ul><ul><li>Gas consumption must be cut – by energy-saving, not industrial slump </li></ul><ul><li>Production could be increased </li></ul>
    10. 10. Russian gas export capacity to Europe up to 2015: transit via Ukraine could be reduced
    11. 11. Ukraine’s demand collapse, 2009 monthly consumption, as % of same month in 2008 Demand destruction concentrated in industry, but slowly recovering since the spring
    12. 12. Ukraine’s 2009 gas imports problem was converted into a cash problem ... the IMF counted $3bn Naftogaz operating deficit as part of Ukraine’s fiscal shortfall * Source: energy ministry, Naftogaz. ** Assuming oil at $70/bbl But what will happen in 2010? Volume of imports Price Import bill 2009 (est) 28.51 Bcm $231.12 (average) $6.59 billion 2010 (proj’n)** 32.5 Bcm $290-300 (average) $9.42-9.75 billion
    13. 13. Europe, Ukraine and Russia: areas of possible cooperation <ul><li>TRANSIT AND STORAGE: </li></ul><ul><li>How could a consortium work to the benefit of all? </li></ul><ul><li>Could Ukraine become a storage provider? </li></ul><ul><li>REDUCING CONSUMPTION: </li></ul><ul><li>In industry, it will depend on sourcing investment </li></ul><ul><li>Municipal services reform is hard (in Russia too) </li></ul><ul><li>What about price reform, and Naftogaz structure? </li></ul><ul><li>INCREASING GAS PRODUCTION IN UKRAINE: </li></ul><ul><li>What type of investment environment? </li></ul>The more transparency, the better

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