Cushman toronto office leasing market report 2014

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Cushman toronto office leasing market report 2014

  1. 1. MARKETBEAT OFFICE SNAPSHOT GREATER TORONTO AREA, ON Q3 2013 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication ECONOMIC OVERVIEW The Ontario economy continues to struggle, partly because export growth has so far failed to materialize. Consumers and homebuyers remain active, but they have limited ability to bolster the economy, and businesses have remained cautious in their capital spending. Real GDP is forecast to reach only 1.3% in 2013 (RBC Economics) but pick up significantly in 2014 as corporate Canada begins to loosen its purse strings in response to increasing global demand. downtown reached five million square feet, or about 12% of premium space inventory. Inevitably, this will result in softer rental rates on existing product. Class A space in the GTA West is set to tighten, creating improved conditions for new developments, which will be strategically located near transportation and workforce to limit risk. As class A tightens, classes B & C will see significant increases in availability in some markets. STATS ON THE GO Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Y-O-Y CHANGE 6.8% 7.3% 0.5 pp $36.54 $37.29 2.1% 6,887,243 5,264,866 -23.6% DOWNTOWN TORONTO Overall Vacancy Direct Asking Rents (psf/yr) YTD Leasing Activity (sf) DIRECT RENTAL VS. VACANCY RATES $40.00 Demand across the downtown is weak and sublet space is on the rise in downtown Toronto, with little evidence that this will change over the near term. With First’s Gulf’s announcement that it will build the Globe and Mail Centre, a 500,000-sf LEED-gold building in the downtown east market, the total inventory under construction Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge 6.0% $20.00 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% $0.00 2009 2010 2011 DIRECT GROSS RENTAL RATE 2012 Q3 2013 OVERALL VACANCY RATE HISTORICAL NEW SUPPLY 5,000 4,000 sf (thousands) OUTLOOK 8.0% $10.00 SUBURBAN MARKET DYNAMICS Suburban markets were relatively active in third quarter, particularly the GTA West, but overall demand conditions remained weak. Surprisingly, the suburban markets saw negative absorption in excess of 500,000 sf. While much of this was caused by two key tenants in the GTA east, who relocated and displaced a significant amount of space, expansionary demand continues to be offset by densification and consolidation, leading to contractions in many cases. There are numerous transactions near completion in the GTA West, which will absorb a significant amount of Class A space and displace lower quality space as tenants move into quality space at very good prices. 10.0% $30.00 psf/yr Demand remained weak across central Canadian markets over the third quarter as lacklustre economic conditions and weaker commodity prices led to cautious decision-making. Downtown Toronto saw 245,000 square feet (sf) of negative absorption, underscoring weakened market fundamentals. Large tenant activity clearly softened and, while small tenants in the downtown fringe markets continued to lease built-out space, demand for smaller blocks space in the financial core fell off significantly from two quarters ago. However, even though overall demand eased, the market remained active, with strong interest shown in the new developments. Of the 4.6 million square feet of new office space under construction at the end of the third quarter, about 50% had already been leased. 12 MONTH FORECAST For more information, contact: Stuart Barron, National Director of Research 416 359 2652 stuart.barron@cushwake.com 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q3 2013 NEW SUPPLY The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. All rights reserved. 1
  2. 2. FINANCIAL CORE VACANCY ALL CLASSES ● ● The overall vacancy rate rose to 5.0% from 4.3% last quarter. Class AAA and B recorded the largest increases in availability at 113,000 sf and 110,000 sf respectively. Weaker demand fundamentals and a significant amount of future space returning to the market, particularly in Q1 2014, will exert upward pressure on the vacancy rate in the coming quarters. 6.0% 2,000 1,500 sf (thousands) VACANCY 4.0% 1,000 2.0% 500 0 0.0% Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 VACANCY SF ● ● Leasing activity eased to 298,000 sf from 556,000 sf last quarter. The market remains tight, though weak demand has led to lower leasing activity numbers over the third quarter. First National Financial LP leased 24,000 sf at 100 University Avenue. Q9 Networks Inc. leased 17,000 sf at 100 Wellington Street West. VACANCY RATE LEASING ACTIVITY ALL CLASSES 800 600 sf (thousands) LEASING ACTIVITY Q3 13 400 200 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 LEASING ACTIVITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ● SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ALL CLASSES Sublet space has begun its ascent, providing additional evidence of weakening demand fundamentals in downtown Toronto. Availability increased to 381,000 sf from 221,000 sf last quarter. Sublet availability will continue to rise over the coming quarters, driven in part by a 90,000 sf block arriving at 130 Adelaide Street West and a 40,000 sf block at 79 Wellington Street West. 500 400 sf (thousands) ● 300 200 100 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ABSORPTION ● Absorption dropped dramatically over the third quarter, falling to negative 181,000 sf, driven by much lower levels of Class AAA and B absorption. Absorption is expected to remain weak in the coming quarters. An increased number of contractions are being observed as tenants complete lease transactions in the downtown market. This is one factor driving negative absorption. 300 200 sf (thousands) ● ABSORPTION ALL CLASSES 100 0 (100) Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 (200) ABSORPTION Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge For more information, contact: Stuart Barron, National Director of Research 416 359 2652 stuart.barron@cushwake.com The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. All rights reserved. 2
  3. 3. DOWNTOWN FRINGE VACANCY ALL CLASSES ● The overall vacancy rate increased to 4.2% from 3.9% last quarter. Vacancy rose across all of the downtown fringe submarkets except for King West. Class B space accounted for the largest sf increase in the third quarter. The fringe market’s vacancy rate will be facing significant upward pressure in Q1 2014, as in excess of 250,000 sf of space returns to market. This includes over 100,000 sf of space at 400 University Avenue to be vacated by Zurich Insurance. LEASING ACTIVITY ● ● Leasing activity is on the decline in the downtown fringe markets, falling to 260,000 sf from 394,000 sf quarter-overquarter. Class B leasing activity fell to 99,000 sf from 277,000 sf last quarter. Mercatus Technologies leased 45,000 sf at 545 King Street West. Royal Bank of Canada leased an additional 26,000 sf at 88 Queens Quay West. Zurich Insurance Company Ltd. leased 24,000 sf at 901 King Street West. 1,500 sf (thousands) ● 6.0% 1,000 4.0% 500 2.0% 0 0.0% Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 VACANCY SF Q3 13 VACANCY RATE LEASING ACTIVITY ALL CLASSES 500 400 sf (thousands) VACANCY 300 200 100 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 LEASING ACTIVITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ● SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ALL CLASSES Sublet availability decreased to 289,000 sf from 337,000 sf last quarter. Class A sublet availability fell in the third quarter to 164,000 sf from 231,000 sf. A number of sublet availabilities will arrive at market over the next two quarters, totaling 54,000 sf. This includes CH2M Hill Canada Limited’s sublet for approximately 32,000 sf in Q4 2013. 400 300 sf (thousands) ● 200 100 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ABSORPTION ● Absorption in the Downtown Fringe dropped into negative territory over the third quarter. The major contributor to declining absorption was Class B, as absorption fell to negative 73,000 sf from 151,000 sf in the previous quarter. The fringe market will see a significant amount of space return to market in Q1 2014 putting additional downward pressure on absorption. In excess of 250,000 sf of space will return to market early in 2014, beginning a slow shift towards a tenant’s market. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge 150 100 sf (thousands) ● ABSORPTION ALL CLASSES For more information, contact: Stuart Barron, National Director of Research 416 359 2652 stuart.barron@cushwake.com 50 0 (50) Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 (100) ABSORPTION The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. All rights reserved. 3
  4. 4. MIDTOWN VACANCY ALL CLASSES ● The overall vacancy rate increased to 5.1% from 4.7% in the previous quarter. However, Midtown remains tight, with the vacancy rate slightly above the five-year low recorded last quarter. Over the next few quarters almost 200,000 sf of space will return to market, putting some upward pressure on vacancy. About half of this space will become available in Q4 2013, including 33,000 sf at 160 Bloor Street East. LEASING ACTIVITY ● ● Leasing activity fell to 145,000 sf from 178,000 sf in the previous quarter. The decline was due to a decrease in activity within the Bloor submarket, where leasing activity fell to 36,000 sf from 74,000 sf. St. Clair was the only Midtown submarket with increased leasing activity in the third quarter. The increase of about 17,000 sf was attributed to increased activity within both class A and B markets. 1,200 sf (thousands) ● 8.0% 6.0% 800 4.0% 400 2.0% 0.0% 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 VACANCY SF Q3 13 VACANCY RATE LEASING ACTIVITY ALL CLASSES 300 sf (thousands) VACANCY 200 100 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 LEASING ACTIVITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ALL CLASSES Sublease availability rose in the third quarter to 186,000 sf from 136,000 sf. Class A sublet space accounted for the bulk of this increase, rising by 39,000 sf. ● Sublet availability should remain stable based on what is currently being tracked in the market. Weaker demand fundamentals could mean an unexpected rise in sublet space from tenants who bring excess space to market. 300 sf (thousands) ● 200 100 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ABSORPTION ● Absorption in Midtown fell to negative 71,000 sf from positive 53,000 sf last quarter. This trend is now being experienced across most GTA markets. Class A absorption in both the Bloor and Eglinton submarkets declined by a total of 102,000 sf in the quarter, resulting in Midtown’s weak performance. 120 80 sf (thousands) ● ABSORPTION ALL CLASSES 40 0 (40) (80) Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 ABSORPTION Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge For more information, contact: Stuart Barron, National Director of Research 416 359 2652 stuart.barron@cushwake.com The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. All rights reserved. 4
  5. 5. GTA EAST ● The GTA East overall vacancy rate increased to 9.7% from 8.7% quarter-over-quarter. This was driven by a return of class A space to market, which drove the vacancy rate to 10.9% from 9.3%. We are tracking in excess of 230,000 sf of space that will return to market over the next two quarters. Two buildings that will see a significant rise in vacancy include 3500 Steeles Avenue East and 45 Vogell Road. LEASING ACTIVITY ● ● Leasing activity was modest over the third quarter, rising slightly to 282,000 sf from 258,000 sf last quarter. Class A space in the Highway 7 & Highway 404 submarket posted the largest increase in leasing activity, rising by 31,000 sf. CiRBA leased 22,000 sf at 45 Vogell Road. Cogent Communications leased 23,000 sf at 245 Consumers Road. 10.0% 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 VACANCY SF Q3 13 VACANCY RATE LEASING ACTIVITY ALL CLASSES 600 sf (thousands) ● sf (thousands) VACANCY ALL CLASSES VACANCY 400 200 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 LEASING ACTIVITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ● SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ALL CLASSES GTA East sublet availability was relatively flat in the third quarter at 497,000 sf. Overall demand for sublet space is very dependent on the underlying quality of the space. Tenants are willing to pay for the combination of quality and location. We are currently tracking approximately 26,000 sf of new sublet space coming to market over the next quarter, including Ernst & Young’s 20,000-sf sublet at 175 Commerce Valley Drive West. 800 600 sf (thousands) ● 400 200 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ABSORPTION ● Absorption in the GTA East spiked downward over the third quarter to negative 439,000 sf -- the weakest result of any GTA market. ● This negative absorption was driven by a few very large blocks of space arriving at market that was displaced from several tenants who transacted some quarters ago, but relocated into their new premises over the third quarter. sf (thousands) ABSORPTION ALL CLASSES 200 100 0 (100) (200) (300) (400) (500) Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 ABSORPTION Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge For more information, contact: Stuart Barron, National Director of Research 416 359 2652 stuart.barron@cushwake.com The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. All rights reserved. 5
  6. 6. GTA NORTH VACANCY ALL CLASSES ● ● The GTA North was the only market across the GTA to experience tightening vacancy over the third quarter, with the vacancy rate falling to 5.5% from 5.8% last quarter. Over the next year we will see a modest amount of space, in excess of 125,000 sf, return to market. During the same period, 214,000 sf of new developments are scheduled for completion, of which 45% is preleased. 6.0% 1,000 800 sf (thousands) VACANCY 4.0% 600 400 2.0% 200 0 0.0% Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 VACANCY SF ● ● Leasing activity fell marginally over the third quarter to 126,000 sf from 143,000 sf quarter-over-quarter. Despite this decline, year-to-date leasing activity of 347,000 sf is on par with last year’s total of 344,000 sf for the first three quarters, reflecting stable relatively tight market conditions. ADR Chambers leased 14,000 sf at 4101 Yonge Street. Class B leasing activity in the North Yonge Corridor improved, rising to 16,000 sf from 9,000 sf in the previous quarter. VACANCY RATE LEASING ACTIVITY ALL CLASSES 200 150 sf (thousands) LEASING ACTIVITY Q2 13 100 50 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 LEASING ACTIVITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ● SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ALL CLASSES Sublet availability decreased to 162,000 sf from 184,000 sf in the previous quarter. A decline in class A sublet space accounted for 100% of the 22,000 sf drop. Very little sublet space is currently being tracked to return in the GTA North. Sublet space as a percentage of available space has fallen steadily to 19.8% from 24.0% in Q1 2013. Tenants wishing to bring excess space to market would likely be well received. From an asset management perspective, this market continues to perform well. 250 200 sf (thousands) ● 150 100 50 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ABSORPTION ● GTA North was the sole market to register positive absorption in the third quarter. Absorption was marginally positive at 29,000 sf as modest amounts of space returning to market have been well matched by demand. Absorption is expected to remain relatively stable over the coming quarters, although risks include tenants relocating out of the submarket. The market with the most in-migration has been downtown Toronto. 100 50 sf (thousands) ● ABSORPTION ALL CLASSES 0 (50) (100) Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 (150) ABSORPTION Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge For more information, contact: Stuart Barron, National Director of Research 416 359 2652 stuart.barron@cushwake.com The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. All rights reserved. 6
  7. 7. GTA WEST VACANCY ALL CLASSES ● ● The overall vacancy rate rose to 11.7% from 11.5% in the previous quarter. The 81,000 sf speculative new development at 175 Galaxy Boulevard was completed over the third quarter. Over the next two quarters, in excess of 825,000 sf of space will come to market. Citigroup’s 208,000-sf sublet at 2920 Matheson Boulevard East will become available in Q4 2013. This will put upward pressure on the vacancy rate. 5,000 12.0% 4,000 sf (thousands) VACANCY 9.0% 3,000 6.0% 2,000 3.0% 1,000 0.0% 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 VACANCY SF ● ● Leasing activity increased in the third quarter to 423,000 sf from 347,000 sf as a number of significant transactions were complete. A notable renewal was Moneris Solutions’ 138,000-sf renewal at 3300 Bloor Street West. Samsung leased 127,000 sf at 2050 Derry Road just after quarter end. Max the Mutt Animation leased 16,000 sf at 1485 Dupont Street. VACANCY RATE LEASING ACTIVITY ALL CLASSES 800 600 sf (thousands) LEASING ACTIVITY Q3 13 400 200 0 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 LEASING ACTIVITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ALL CLASSES Sublet availability increased to 729,000 sf from 693,000 sf last quarter. ● Citigroup’s 208,000-sf sublet will drive up sublet availability substantially. In addition, 55 Standish Court will have a total of 62,000 sf of sublet space coming available, including Samsung’s 38,000-sf sublet. 800 sf (thousands) ● 600 400 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY ABSORPTION ● Absorption decreased slightly in the third quarter to negative 92,000 sf from negative 85,000 sf last quarter. However, several deals, including Samsung’s newly completed lease of the entire building at 2050 Derry Road West, will add positive absorption in Q4 2013. Absorption is likely to remain low for a few quarters, though absorption for Class A space is expected to show significant strength as a number of larger transactions for quality space are completed. Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge 400 300 sf (thousands) ● ABSORPTION ALL CLASSES For more information, contact: Stuart Barron, National Director of Research 416 359 2652 stuart.barron@cushwake.com 200 100 0 (100) (200) (300) Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 ABSORPTION The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. All rights reserved. 7
  8. 8. GREATER TORONTO AREA SUBMARKET INVENTORY OVERALL VACANCY RATE DIRECT VACANCY RATE YTD LEASING ACTIVITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION YTD CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS CURRENT QUARTER ABSORPTION YTD OVERALL ABSORPTION WTD. AVG. ALL CLASSES GROSS RENTAL RATE* WTD. AVG. CLASS A GROSS RENTAL RATE* Financial Core 34,299,185 5.0% 3.9% 1,199,873 1,925,720 0 (180,789) 42,197 $55.35 $60.10 Downtown Fringe 33,388,532 4.2% 3.3% 1,105,432 2,660,572 100,000 (64,589) 121,297 $39.44 $45.46 Downtown 67,687,717 4.6% 3.6% 2,305,305 4,586,292 100,000 (245,378) 163,494 $47.51 $54.37 Midtown 16,699,064 5.1% 3.9% 552,495 0 0 (71,292) 72,467 $36.27 $39.48 CENTRAL AREA 84,386,781 4.7% 3.7% 2,857,800 4,586,292 100,000 (316,670) 235,961 $45.32 $52.15 GTA East 33,028,314 9.7% 8.2% 867,430 0 0 (439,497) (385,987) $27.79 $29.29 GTA North 14,688,676 5.5% 4.4% 346,695 214,869 0 28,736 (82,500) $32.38 $33.55 GTA West 37,188,590 11.7% 9.7% 1,192,941 1,452,587 230,950 (92,179) 163,128 $29.11 $31.10 SUBURBAN AREA 84,905,580 9.9% 8.2% 2,407,066 1,667,456 230,950 (502,940) (305,359) $29.13 $30.87 169,292,361 7.3% 5.9% 5,264,866 6,253,748 330,950 (819,610) (69,398) $37.29 $41.40 GTA TOTAL * RENTAL RATES REFLECT ASKING $PSF/YEAR MARKET HIGHLIGHTS SIGNIFICANT Q3 2013 LEASE TRANSACTIONS SUBMARKET TENANT BUILDING CLASS 3300 Bloor Street West (West Tower), Toronto* Bloor & Islington Moneris Solutions A 138,000 545 King Street West, Toronto Downtown West Mercatus Technologies Inc. C 45,000 88 Queens Quay West, Toronto Downtown South Royal Bank of Canada A 26,000 100 University Avenue, Toronto Financial Core First National Financial LP A 24,000 901 King Street West, Toronto King West Zurich Insurance Company Ltd. A 24,000 245 Consumers Road, Toronto Consumers Road Cogent Communications B 23,000 45 Vogell Road, Richmond Hill Hwy 404 / 407 CiRBA Inc. A 22,000 SIGNIFICANT Q3 2013 SALE TRANSACTIONS SUBMARKET BUYER PURCHASE PRICE / $PSF 1 Queen Street East & 20 Richmond Street East, Toronto Financial Core Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board $220,000,000 / $437 503,000 Madison Centre, Toronto Yonge & Hwy 401 Northam Realty Advisors $133,500,000 / $309 432,127 100 Yonge Street (Share Sale), Toronto Financial Core H & R REIT and Dundee REIT $79,200,000 / $327 242,287 The Promontory, Mississauga Sheridan FAM REIT $39,025,000 / $244 159,752 215 Spadina Avenue, Toronto Downtown North Crespoint Real Estate Investments Ltd. $26,200,000 / $248 105,510 SIGNIFICANT Q3 2013 CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT COMPLETION DATE 175 Galaxy Boulevard, Toronto Airport (Surrounding ACC) Speculative Q3 2013 SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION SUBMARKET MAJOR TENANT COMPLETION DATE Bay Adelaide Centre East, Toronto Financial Core Deloitte & Touche LLP Q1 2016 1,020,000 One York Street, Toronto Downtown South HOOPP Q3 2016 941,147 88 Queens Quay West, Toronto Downtown South Royal Bank of Canada Q4 2014 933,020 100 Adelaide Street West, Toronto Financial Core Ernst & Young Q2 2017 905,720 120 Bremner Boulevard, Toronto Downtown South Marsh & McLennan Companies Q4 2014 700,000 60 Standish Court, Mississauga Hurontario Corridor TJX Group/Winners Q1 2015 335,000 SQUARE FEET SQUARE FEET BUILDING SQUARE FEET 80,950 BUILDING SQUARE FEET * RENEWAL - NOT INCLUDED IN LEASING ACTIVITY STATISTICS Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. 33 Yonge Street, Suite 1000 Toronto, ON M5E 1S9 www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge For more information, contact: Stuart Barron, National Director of Research 416 359 2652 stuart.barron@cushwake.com The market terms and definitions in this report are based on NAIOP standards. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by our principals. © 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. All rights reserved. 8
  9. 9. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication 1 Global Overview: Efficiency and Quality Rule 1 Global Overview: Stable in 2013, Better Times Ahead 3 Special Report: The Changing Workplace 3 Americas: Bright Pockets in Mixed Forecast 5 Americas: Gathering Strength 8 Asia Pacific: Primed for Soft Landing 11 Asia Pacific: Still Solid Growth 13 Europe: A Bumpy Road 17 EMEA: Positive Signs DECEMBER 2013
  10. 10. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication GLOBAL OVERVIEW: EFFICIENCY AND QUALITY RULE Reduced occupancy footprints and an upgrade to betterquality space are two global trends that show no sign of letting up anytime soon. From New York to London to Hong Kong, business leaders continue to monitor their real estate costs and no longer tolerate “wasted space.” But cost is not the only way to achieve efficiencies. Floorplate size, design and layout, and collaborative workspaces typically not found in older office stock are key factors that companies around the world see as promoting increased productivity and workplace satisfaction. AMERICAS: BUMPY RECOVERY Office market conditions will vary widely across the Americas in 2014: Canada is faced with oversupply in some markets, which, along with weaker demand, could lead to decreasing rents; Latin America is a mixed bag, with some markets undergoing market corrections, while others are attracting increased investment; and, the U.S. is forecast to have the highest GDP growth in the Americas at 3.1%, although this will not translate into healthy real estate market fundamentals in all cities. Robust demand and tight office markets ignited a development boom across Canada that will see 7.9 msf feet of office space come to central markets in 2014 and 2015. Weak global economic conditions, particularly in the U.S., softened demand over 2013, but improved conditions expected by late 2014 will revive business confidence and growth. New product will push up vacancy and some easing of rental rates will result. Several Latin American markets are at risk of oversupply with São Paulo leading the way with an astonishing 15 msf in the pipeline being delivered just as the country is entering a period of slow growth. While rents in Rio de Janeiro have begun a market correction, they are still 1 inflated, causing occupiers to flee class A space for class B or B+ – and buck the global flight-to-quality trend. Santiago, which has the strongest economy in South America, will outperform Mexico City and other South American markets. Its vacancy rate will drop to a rockbottom 0.9% by 2015. ASIA PACIFIC: STILL GROWING Through most of Asia, 2014 is generally expected to be a repeat of 2013, with little divergence in economic patterns. Growth rates will not be as high overall, averaging about 5%. This deceleration is being driven mainly by China, India and Indonesia. An exceptionally large office supply pipeline continues to define most of the emerging markets in Asia. By the end of 2015, the class A office stock in Asia is anticipated to grow by 15% with some Chinese markets doubling, or nearly doubling, in size. Demand will be slow to catch new supply, however, with tier 1 cities capturing much of the activity and absorption remaining at moderate levels. With high availabilities, it remains a great time to be an occupier. Rents will continue on their upward trajectory with growth averaging 1-2% annually, causing many tenants to take a long, hard look at their occupancy costs and devising ways to achieve efficiencies. Many businesses are seeking space in lower-cost options outside of the central business districts, and, in the process, upgrading to new construction. The region is expected to remain attractive to investors. While the risk of interest rate increases looms due to potentially tighter monetary policy in the U.S., the prospect of further improvements in office market fundamentals will help fuel investment activity through the forecast period. EUROPE: POSITIVE SIGNS After a weak start to the year, Europe has stabilized. 2013 marked the end of the eurozone recession, and both business and consumer confidence is on the mend. Growth projections have been raised for 2014/15 although the regional picture will still be one of below trend growth overall with significant differences market to market. 2014 GDP GROWTH FORECAST 3% 5.1% 1.3% 2.9% AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH
  11. 11. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication TOP-TEN GLOBAL MARKETS AT A GLANCE (2013-2015) In the office markets, there is a clear divergence between primary and secondary space. The supply of modern space is beginning to dwindle, particularly in major international cities like London, Stockholm and Frankfurt, as tenants demand the best-quality space. As a result, developers are now pushing ahead with any schemes they have in the pipeline, resulting in a modest increase in new completions in 2014 which, with net absorption still low, will result in an uptick in vacancy in some markets. However, the pipeline beyond next year is still restrained thanks to the lack of starts in recent years. Hence, as demand picks up vacancy will start to fall back, potentially dropping to its lowest level since 2008 towards the end of the forecast period. With the exception of a handful of markets at either extreme, rents in most markets will see only modest growth through the forecast period. Rents for prime space in London, Dublin and Budapest are expected to rise by 5.0% or more annually, while those in Milan, Prague and Warsaw will decline. The majority of real estate investors in the office sector continue to favor core markets, but as prime opportunities decrease and prices become more competitive in the best markets in particular, they are prepared to move up the risk curve and look at what options are available to them in second tier cities. Also for the risk-takers, speculative development and refurbishment is expected to rise in 2014 and beyond. COMPOUND ANNUAL RENT GROWTH NEW SUPPLY AS PERCENTAGE OF INVENTORY Jakarta Chengdu Dublin Ho Chi Minh Boston Shenzhen San Francisco Guangzhou London Istanbul Singapore São Paulo Tokyo Jakarta Seattle Hyderabad Manila Delhi NCR New York Pune 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% ABSORPTION AS A PERCENTAGE OF INVENTORY Istanbul 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% New Supply will remain on the upswing even in markets with elevated vacancy rates as occupiers continue to be drawn to modern, efficient space. Guangzhou Chengdu Shenzhen Ho Chi Minh Pune Jakarta São Paulo Hyderabad Manila 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH 2
  12. 12. SPECIAL REPORT: THE CHANGING WORKPLACE DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman & Wakefield Research Publication FOCUS ON COST AND CULTURE In our changing world, workplace culture is more central to business success than ever before. From a Corporate Real Estate perspective, clients think of three things when talking about offices: workplace, workplace and workplace. Faced with the relentless transformation of work habits, business is acutely aware that their physical work environment and other critical real estate decisions are key to managing change and maintaining competitiveness. There are of course very different conditions at a local market level around the world that impact occupier decisions in terms of rental cost and existing options to occupy modern effective space. However, organizational issues and how businesses actually use their space can be of greater significance. Increasingly, business leaders recognize that workplace transformation is required to support their business strategy and performance through enhancing collaboration between departments and also attracting talent. The three main drivers for workplace transformation – cost, people, and organization – vary considerably between different business sectors. 3 The 2013 Cushman & Wakefield Corenet Survey of corporate real estate executives highlighted that the three main drivers for workplace transformation – cost, people, and organization – vary considerably between different business sectors. COST PRIMARY MOTIVATION • Reduce real estate costs • Reduce churn and facility costs • educe other costs (paper, R utilities, travel) Simply put, profound changes in our work habits facilitated by technology have redefined workplace requirements, which has enabled companies to consolidate and rationalize their portfolios. The savings achieved through reduced footprints can be dramatic – up to 40% in some cases. In a more lean and agile workplace, byproducts such as the cost of churn or use of paper provide additional savings benefits. A truly integrated workplace transformation program will see further cost savings across the enterprise with initiatives like Bring Your Own Device and the migration to soft phones, and through reduced absenteeism. For some sectors, such as banking, the cost savings are the primary driver; for others they are an added benefit to improved productivity. Still, given that real estate is typically the second largest corporate cost item, savings and new efficiencies will remain high on the agenda.
  13. 13. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication PEOPLE ORGANIZATION GLOBAL ADOPTION NUMBER-ONE CONSIDERATION PROMOTING COMMUNICATIONS AND COLLABORATION CATCHING ON AROUND THE WORLD • Attract and retain employees • Increase employee productivity • Improve work-life balance For the first time since its inception, the CW Corenet CEO Challenge survey of chief executives from over 700 large global corporations ranked “human capital” as the number-one, top-of-mind consideration. As lean businesses emerge from the recession they are targeting new growth opportunities in new global markets, and recognize that attracting and retaining the “right” talent is needed to remain innovative and competitive in the face of relentless change. This is particularly the case for the high-tech sector. Major cities around the world are natural magnets for young educated workers, and are increasingly attracting tech companies regardless of their higher cost base. These companies are using the workplace as a major differentiator in attracting target employees. Out-of-the-box workplace designs in this sector define a culture and brand – offering relaxed campus-like environments with many collaborative areas and other inducements such as free food and high-tech toys to entrench employee loyalty and inspire innovation. Equally, traditional professional services sectors are focused on winning the fight for talent by establishing more dynamic, flexible workplaces in targeted locations. • ncrease communication and I collaboration • ncrease creativity and innovation I • mprove agility and customer I responsiveness The workplace is a primary enabler (or inhibiter if badly designed) for communication and collaboration within any business. The recent initiatives by the CEOs of Yahoo! and HP, bringing remote workers back into the office, reinforce the role of the workplace in creating business cohesion and driving innovation. In sectors where innovation is a critical success factor, a workplace strategy that supports knowledge sharing and co-creation is seen as mandatory. The pharmaceutical sector is perhaps the leader in this area, and now extends its philosophy beyond the organizational boundaries to ensure collaboration with other businesses and universities as the best way to develop the next generation of solutions. With human capital at the forefront of CEO concerns, the relationship between the workplace and culture is empowering Corporate Real Estate executives to play an increasingly significant role in C-suite decisions. • • • • • North America 57% South America 31% Europe 62% Middle East and Africa 38% Asia 74% The level of workplace transformation adoption varies across different regions as highlighted by the survey. CRE directors reported that Asia Pacific is now seeing the most significant level of adoption, although much of this is still in the early stages of planning and roll out. Throughout Europe and North America, the workplace transformation movement is much more mature. Indeed, some advanced companies in these regions are rethinking their initial approaches to workplace polices based on measured results. The work-from-home movement, for example, has not only skewed occupancy levels, but in many cases has proved to have a negative impact on organizational cohesion and effectiveness. This is driving many companies to explore ways to re-energize the workplace so staff are more motivated to work out of the office. In conclusion, the workplace is becoming more complex and inter-related with business performance and objectives. More than ever, it defines the culture of an organization and, as Professor Rene Carol from Cass Business School, put it: “Culture is more powerful than business strategy.” 4
  14. 14. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication AMERICAS: GATHERING STRENGTH UNITED STATES: RECOVERY TAKES HOLD Technology, energy and new media continue to be the main drivers of the real estate recovery. As a result, markets like San Francisco and Boston, despite having a fair amount of construction in the pipeline expect continued strong demand over the next two years keeping vacancy rates low and pushing prime asking rates upwards by 16% and 22%, respectively. Seattle will see a slow and steady recovery. Houston and Dallas, in particular, stand to benefit from a growing energy industry. The Dallas Central Business District (CBD) is enjoying a resurgence of activity and class A rents will rise by 3%, although vacancy will remain high. While Manhattan has over 10 msf under construction, 48% is preleased. With positive absorption expected to continue in this thriving market, class A rents will rise by nearly 15% on a cumulative basis. On the other end of the spectrum are those markets whose tenancy foundations are built on a more traditional mix of sectors – financial, legal, professional business services, for example. Businesses in these sectors have kept their growth plans on hold as they wait for stronger signs of U.S. and global economic recovery. However, steady leasing activity related to the adoption of efficient new workplace strategies that include consolidation and densification will continue. Conditions will favor tenants in these markets as asking rents will see little upward movement in the next two years until business gains confidence and significant job creation takes place. 5 Los Angeles, Atlanta and Philadelphia would fit into this category of markets. growth will fuel real estate activity and rents will increase by 7.5% from 2013 to 2015. Perhaps not surprisingly, economic difficulties exacerbated by a polarized Congress is no more evident in any real estate market than Washington, D.C., which does not expect to see a return to recovery – balanced leasing fundamentals – until 2015. Mexico City will see rising vacancy and little movement in rents in the near term due to deliveries of about 6.5 msf. Improvement is expected by 2015 with local players in government agencies, finance and manufacturing bolstering demand. Mexico’s new government is working on putting forth a number of changes in tax and energy laws as well as educational, telecom and financial reforms. If executed, these could support business expansion plans. LATIN AMERICA: EYES ON SANTIAGO Santiago is the South American superstar with projected GDP growth of 11% by the end of 2015. The economic ABSORPTION AS A PERCENTAGE OF INVENTORY VS. COMPOUND ANNUAL RENT GROWTH (2013-15) 12.0% Boston Compound Annual Rent Growth 2013-2015 Maria T. Sicola Executive Managing Director, Americas Research 8.0% San Francisco 4.0% Philadelphia New York Houston Seattle Los Angeles Dallas Chicago 0.0% Toronto Montreal Calgary Atlanta Washington, DC Mexico City Ottawa Vancouver Santiago São Paulo -4.0% Rio de Janeiro Buenos Aires -8.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Absorption as a Percentage of Inventory 2013-2015 SOURCE: CUSHMAN WAKEFIELD RESEARCH 20.0% 25.0%
  15. 15. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication A significant number of projects will be completed in São Paulo over the next twelve months – nearly 2.5 times the four year average. This, along with reduced demand, will drive up vacancy and exert downward pressure on pricing in existing buildings until 2015. In Rio de Janeiro, approximately 4 msf is in the pipeline in advance of both the World Cup and the Olympics, but very little of it has been preleased. Coupled with uncertainties surrounding the upcoming election cycle, vacancy rates are expected to increase while cumulative rent growth will be moderate. Economic uncertainty remains the story in Buenos Aires and, although GDP growth is expected to increase from 2.8% in 2014 to 3.9% in 2015, vacancy rates and rents will essentially remain at 2013 levels through 2015. However, investment activity is on the upswing as companies are finding it difficult to repatriate profits, and acquiring properties as a hedge against inflation has become commonplace. Bogota is also a market to watch as speculative construction has returned to the western part of the city. Class A stock delivered in 2014 will help eliminate barriers to entry in this supply-constrained market. CANADA: MARKETS TO SEE IMPROVED DEMAND Soft demand across central Canadian markets will regain traction in the latter half of 2014, driven by a strengthening U.S. economy and improved global fundamentals. One of the hottest central market development cycles in 20 years will push vacancy upward, particularly in markets like Toronto and Calgary, where in excess of 5 msf will hit each market over coming years. Heading into this supply storm, Canadian central markets are well positioned, being among the tightest markets in North America, with an average vacancy rate of only 6.0%. So, while vacancy will rise significantly over current levels, 2014 vacancy rates in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto will climb moderately to 7.7%, 6.7% and 7.0% respectively. Montreal will see rates rise to 9.1% and Ottawa will see rates rise to 6.6% from 4.8%. As companies relocate into the new developments, displaced space will create opportunities and rental rates will soften across most central markets, but these declines will be modest. Steady leasing activity related to the adoption of efficient new workplace strategies that include consolidation and densification will continue, especially in markets dominated by “traditional” sectors. NEW SUPPLY AS A PERCENTAGE OF INVENTORY (2013-2015) Houston Los Angeles Philadelphia Chicago Atlanta Montreal Dallas Toronto Washington, DC New York San Francisco Seattle Calgary Ottawa Boston Buenos Aires Vancouver Santiago Mexico City Rio de Janeiro São Paulo 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Supply as Percentage of Inventory SOURCE: CUSHMAN WAKEFIELD RESEARCH 6
  16. 16. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication AMERICAS: MAJOR OFFICE MARKETS FORECAST CBD CLASS A VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) 2015 (%) CBD CLASS A RENTS 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency CLASS A NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 Local Measure SF COMMENTARY 2015 Local Measure SF SF UNITED STATES 0 Increased momentum in Atlanta’s employment sector, particularly in office-using industries, will continue to drive the recovery of Atlanta’s office market. Vacancies are expected to continue to slowly decline which should begin to translate into upward pressure on rental rates over the next 12 months. 1,314 Over 3.6 msf of class A office space is scheduled to come online through 2015. Asking rents are expected to grow 22% from 2013-2015, while vacancy rates will tick upwards but remain among the lowest of U.S. CBDs. 150 With solid employment growth across all sectors, net absorption is anticipated to be steady for 2014 and remain positive for 2015. Vacancy rates will decline slightly and rents will keep pace with but not exceed the rate of inflation. Despite being one of the softer CBD markets in the U.S., demand in and around the Dallas CBD is stronger than seen in years. Rent growth is expected to be around 3.0% and vacancy will hold around 20.0% for the near term. Atlanta Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 21.1 20.2 19.1 26.68 26.68 26.95 26.95 27.10 27.10 0 0 550 550 0 Local Measure: sf Boston Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 7.5 6.4 8.1 54.35 54.35 58.43 58.43 66.27 66.27 1,833 1,833 485 485 1,314 Local Measure: sf Chicago Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 11.9 11.0 10.8 38.65 38.65 39.39 39.39 40.51 40.51 0 0 0 0 150 Local Measure: sf Dallas Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 20.8 20.0 20.6 24.67 24.67 25.24 25.24 26.08 26.08 0 0 0 0 455 455 6.7 5.8 4.5 39.50 39.50 41.54 41.54 43.50 43.50 0 0 0 0 0 0 Over the next 12 quarters, stable job recovery combined with no new construction will result in a steady decline in vacancy and increase in rents. The energy sector remains a critical player in the market. 20.3 20.2 20.0 36.41 36.41 37.74 37.74 39.37 39.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 Still a traditional office-using market occupied by financial, legal and back office tenants, vacancy rates are expected to hold while asking rents will inch up in relation to overall market dynamics. Local Measure: sf Houston Local Currency: US$/sf/yr Local Measure: sf Los Angeles Local Currency: US$/sf/yr Local Measure: sf New York Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 9.5 9.8 9.4 70.81 70.81 74.46 Local Measure: sf SOURCE FOR EXCHANGE RATES: FINANCIAL TIMES, 21 OCT 2013, CLOSING PRICE 7 74.46 81.33 81.33 4,548 4,548 3,246 3,246 2,492 2,492 Improvement in net absorption coupled with substantial new space being delivered over the next two years (which is 48.0% preleased) supports continued rent growth averaging 7.2% over the next two years. Despite the influx of new space, Manhattan's vacancy rate will remain among the lowest in the nation.
  17. 17. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication AMERICAS: MAJOR OFFICE MARKETS FORECAST CBD CLASS A VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) 2015 (%) CBD CLASS A RENTS 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency CLASS A NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 Local Measure SF COMMENTARY 2015 Local Measure SF SF UNITED STATES Philadelphia Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 12.8 12.3 11.5 26.80 26.80 27.34 27.34 28.02 28.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fundamentals are forecast to slowly improve in Philadelphia's CBD over the next two years. With no new construction scheduled to deliver over that period, the vacancy rate will decrease and rent growth will trend above inflation, averaging 2.2% per annum. 1,313 San Francisco is in the midst of a building boom, with over 2.4 msf of new space coming to market by yearend 2015. Demand is expected to keep pace, resulting in only a slight increase in vacancy. Rent growth is forecast to be robust, averaging 7.6% per year. 1,018 The Seattle market is recovering nicely from its 2009 downturn. Vacancy is forecast to decrease only slightly due to 1 msf coming online in 2015. Asking rents are forecast to average a solid 5.6% growth per annum through 2015. 590 With the exception of trophy properties and new construction, demand will be slow to return, with no significant improvements until 2015 and 2016 when job growth accelerates. Outdated inventory coupled with tenant rightsizing will leave vacancy rates elevated through the forecast period. Local Measure: sf San Francisco Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 8.3 7.8 8.6 57.45 57.45 61.77 61.77 66.55 66.55 476 476 649 649 1,313 Local Measure: sf Seattle Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 13.3 11.0 11.8 34.77 34.77 36.26 36.26 38.76 38.76 302 302 0 0 1,018 Local Measure: sf Washington, DC Local Currency: US$/sf/yr 14.9 14.8 13.6 59.63 59.63 59.68 59.68 60.98 60.98 1,271 1,271 168 168 590 Local Measure: sf CANADA Calgary Local Currency: CAD/sf/yr 4.6 6.7 7.3 50.52 49.07 49.53 48.11 48.28 46.90 100 100 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,100 Local Measure: sf Montreal Local Currency: CAD/sf/yr 8.3 9.1 10.5 38.81 37.70 38.19 37.10 37.62 36.54 0 0 230 230 500 500 As market conditions soften across Canada, Montreal is the first to feel the effects of declining business demand. Class A availabilities will increase moderately from current levels by year end 2015, putting downward pressure on rental rates. 0 CBD class A vacancy will increase in 2014 from a weakened economy but modest demand in 2015 is expected to bring rates back down. The delivery of new, government occupied space will generate positive absorption for the near term. Local Measure: sf Ottawa Local Currency: CAD/sf/yr Local Measure: sf 4.8 6.6 5.7 48.75 47.35 49.22 47.81 49.69 48.27 0 0 840 840 0 Due to its dependence on the energy sector, the Calgary market has always experienced some volatility. Vacancy will rise over the next two years due to lackluster demand and new developments coming to market. 8
  18. 18. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication AMERICAS: MAJOR OFFICE MARKETS FORECAST CBD CLASS A VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) 2015 (%) CBD CLASS A RENTS 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency CLASS A NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 Local Measure SF COMMENTARY 2015 SF Local Measure SF CANADA 280 Weaker demand across the region as a result of the sluggish economy combined with robust new supply coming to market will push vacancy rates higher through 2015. Rent levels will decline to compensate for the 5.1 million square feet of new development presently under construction. 1,200 Vancouver, historically one of the tightest markets in Canada, will see vacancy rise into low double digits by the end of 2015 due to new developments coming to market. Rental rates will also decline, but at a relatively slow rate, bolstered by the addition of new top-tier space. 320 The GDP of Buenos Aires is anticipated to grow 2.8% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015. Demand for space in the market will be flat as uncertainty in the economy keeps tenants on the sidelines. Both the vacancy rate and market rents for class A space will maintain current levels through the end of 2015. 0 New construction delivery through 2014 will push vacancy up while slower demand for space from local business will minimize absorption growth resulting in sustained higher vacancy and flat rents through the end of 2015. Toronto Local Currency: CAD/sf/yr 5.0 7.0 8.8 52.15 50.66 51.34 49.87 49.35 47.94 0 0 1,600 1,600 280 Local Measure: sf Vancouver Local Currency: CAD/sf/yr 5.3 7.7 10.5 52.28 50.78 51.79 50.31 50.50 49.05 20 20 1,137 1,137 1,200 Local Measure: sf LATIN AMERICA Buenos Aires Local Currency: US$/sqm/mo 8 8.5 8.5 26.25 29.28 25.98 28.97 25.79 28.77 129 1,388 73 791 30 Local Measure: sqm Mexico City Local Currency: US$/sqm/mo 11.9 16.7 16.9 28.70 32.01 29.21 32.58 29.64 33.06 309 3,325 292 3,142 0 Local Measure: sqm 1,586 Vacancy rates are forecast to increase 4 percentage points through 2015. Larger expansion decisions are expected to be put off in the the short term due to uncertainties about the upcoming election cycle. Preparations for both the 2014 World Cup and the upcoming 2016 Olympic games are driving a robust development pipeline. 1,356 GDP is expected to grow over 11% by the end of 2015 making Chile one of the strongest economies in South America. Asking rents will increase 7.5% between 2013 and 2015 driven by new construction and increased demand. Rio de Janeiro Local Currency: R$/sqm/mo 17.6 20.2 21.7 131.39 60.46 134.97 62.11 137.56 63.30 80 859 158 1,705 147 Local Measure: sqm Santiago Local Currency: US$/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm 9 2.7 2.2 0.9 24.15 26.93 25.11 28.00 25.96 28.95 100 1,076 132 1,420 126
  19. 19. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication AMERICAS: MAJOR OFFICE MARKETS FORECAST CBD CLASS A VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) 2015 (%) CBD CLASS A RENTS 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency CLASS A NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 SF Local Measure COMMENTARY 2015 SF Local Measure SF LATIN AMERICA São Paulo Local Currency: R$/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm 17.5 21.3 23.8 129.99 59.82 134.15 61.73 139.62 64.25 451 4,854 462 4,968 528 5,681 New construction flooding the market through 2015 will push up vacancy rates in the near term. Asking rents will also jump as these higher priced new buildings come online. However, longer term, rents will flatten as slower demand for space forces landlords to adjust in order to compete against the increased number of tenant opportunities in the area. 10
  20. 20. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication ASIA PACIFIC: STILL SOLID GROWTH GROWING SLOWLY BUT SURELY The Asia Pacific region will continue to be an engine for world economic recovery next year, but will move to a lower growth path. Regional real GDP is projected to expand by 5.0-5.3% in 2014-2015, down slightly from 5.4-5.5% in 2012-2013. Prospects will vary, with relatively solid growth in Japan, an incipient recovery in most export-oriented economies, and weakening in some major emerging markets. “Abenomics” will continue to underpin the economic upswing in Japan; an additional stimulus package will be rolled out to cushion the impact of the sales-tax rise, though the long-awaited “third arrow” is a prerequisite to put its economy on a more durable growth trajectory over the long term. This relatively upbeat assessment for Japan, along with the steady improvement in the U.S. and Europe, should gradually benefit export-oriented economies led by Singapore and South Korea. Growth in most ASEAN economies is set to return to its potential on the back of solid domestic demand. For the Philippines, preliminary estimates expect the damage from super typhoon Haiyan to shave off at least 1.0% from its output in 2014. Nonetheless, other economic centers that account for a larger share of its GDP, and were left unscathed by the typhoon, should continue their positive momentum. In Australia, economic strength will hinge on domestic consumption and export volumes to mitigate the shortfall from mining investment. 11 Meanwhile, major emerging markets will continue to decelerate. Together, the downward adjustments for the three large economies of China, India and Indonesia explain the growth slowdown in the region. China’s slower growth and relatively weak domestic demand will possibly necessitate looser financial conditions for many economies, even with policy normalization by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Fortunately, inflation should generally remain within central banks’ comfort zones against a backdrop of moderate growth and benign outlook for global commodity prices, and that should allow space for policy easing, if necessary. The changing growth dynamics have brought new risks to the forefront. First, the Fed taper over the coming year would create spillover effects, with capital outflows likely to intensify and reduce liquidity and, in turn, restrain economic growth in some economies. Second, given current insufficient fiscal and structural reforms across the region, there is a risk of stagnation or deterioration in domestic fundamentals that could have adverse effects. Lastly, the elections in India and Indonesia slated for 2014 could have ramifications on the coordination of economic policy. ABSORPTION AS A PERCENTAGE OF INVENTORY VS. COMPOUND ANNUAL RENT GROWTH (2013-15) 25.0% Compound Annual Rent Growth 2013-2015 Sigrid Zialcita Managing Director, Research, Asia Pacific Jakarta 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% Hong Kong Sydney Beijing Brisbane Melbourne 0.0% -5.0% -5.0% Singapore Tokyo 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% Manila Bangkok Pune Chennai Seoul Bengaluru Taipei Perth Hyderabad Shanghai Mumbai Ho Chi Minh Kuala Lumpur Delhi NCR 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Absorption as a Percentage of Inventory 2013-2015 SOURCE: CUSHMAN WAKEFIELD RESEARCH Shenzen Guangzhou Chengdu 30.0% 35.0%
  21. 21. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication CAUTIOUS LEASING ACTIVITY More subdued growth in the region would cause leasing conditions to remain less buoyant over the next year. Specifically, absorption gains are expected to dip modestly from 2013, as leasing in most markets will continue to be undermined by the lack of strong demand catalysts. However, new construction remains robust particularly in emerging markets within China and India, and the regional construction pipeline of nearly 400 msf will remain the highest globally. Notably, grade A stock is set to grow by 10-15% by 2015. While overall occupancies will vary across the region, rents are still expected to advance annually by 1-2%, on average, through 2015. Considering further the continued rent increases in most markets since 2009, and the prevalence of high rents, occupiers will be more focused on space efficiency and cost containment. Notably, most markets are expected to achieve positive rental reversions once again. Occupiers with three-year leases up for renewal in 2014 will likely see average rent increases of 3-5% in core cities and 9-11% for emerging markets relative to 2011. For 2015, the positive rent reversion trend is expected to persist, with increases in core cities set to accelerate to 6-8%, but more moderate increases in emerging markets of 2-4%. POSITIVE INVESTOR SENTIMENT Conditions across most of Asia continue to be favorable for investors. Macro trends, including the emerging policy direction in China, influence on liquidity of “Abenomics,” elections in Indonesia and India and Australia’s consumption trends will be closely watched as they stand to impact sentiment. At the property level, rental growth rates in the core and core-plus space will continue to drive allocations. We expect rental growth rates to accelerate in a number of core and emerging locations led by Tokyo and Manila, where supply risks are limited, upon the resumption of stronger economic growth over the medium term. In emerging markets, China is now seen as presenting value again and acute equity financing gaps in India and Vietnam will continue to offer compelling opportunities. Additionally, the incremental allocation to Asian real estate strategies from large money managers, defined benefit pension plans, insurance companies and endowments from North America and Europe will further strengthen in the years ahead. 2014 promises to be another solid year in terms of investment volumes for Asia. 2015 Rents Look Up For 2015, the positive rent reversion trend is expected to persist, with increases in core cities set to accelerate to 6-8%, but more moderate increases in emerging markets of 2-4%. NEW SUPPLY AS A PERCENTAGE OF INVENTORY (2013-2015) Hong Kong Brisbane Bangkok Tokyo Beijing Kuala Lumpur Seoul Singapore Taipei Chennai Melbourne Sydney Manila Perth Bengaluru Shanghai Mumbai Pune Delhi NCR Hyderabad Jakarta Guangzhou Shenzhen Ho Chi Minh Chengdu 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% Supply as Percentage of Inventory SOURCE: CUSHMAN WAKEFIELD RESEARCH 12
  22. 22. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication ASIA PACIFIC: OFFICE MARKET FORECAST 2013-2015 CBD CLASS A VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) 2015 (%) CBD CLASS A RENTS 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency CLASS A NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 Local Measure SF COMMENTARY 2015 Local Measure SF SF SOUTHEAST ASIA/PACIFIC Singapore Local Currency: SGD/sf/mo 5.5 4.2 9.67 93.42 10.07 97.29 10.50 101.44 808 808 720 720 801 801 4.4 4.2 2.0 937.75 24.24 959.85 24.81 1,054.19 27.24 476 5,126 560 6,023 112 1,210 Demand from BPO operations remains healthy and vacancies are expected to remain low despite a steady flow of supply over the next two years. Rents are on the rise. 21.0 20.5 20.6 8.35 31.61 8.15 30.85 8.00 30.28 681 681 1,596 1,596 1,988 1,988 With high vacancies and excess supply under construction, developers have slowed down or deferred the completion of the office projects. Lower occupancy and rent levels are expected going forward. Higher supply is expected over the next two years; absorption, while healthy, will lag with vacancy increasing towards 2015. Rental rates, however, are still expected to grow but at a much slower pace than 2013. Local Measure: sf Manila Local Currency: PHP/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm Kuala Lumpur Local Currency: MYR/sf/mo Local Measure: sf Jakarta Local Currency: RP/sqm/mo 8.3 11.0 15.3 462,241 45.48 531,612 52.30 584,773 57.54 189 2,032 362 3,897 570 6,132 13.0 20.0 26.0 46.00 51.28 46.00 51.28 46.00 51.28 23 252 55 592 49 527 11.2 11.5 8.3 776.55 27.86 789.40 28.32 801.50 28.75 0 0 45 479 0 0 Limited grade A supply, construction delays in noncore locations and stable absorption will reduce vacancy and increase CBD rents over the next two years. 10.0 8.8 5.8 655.00 58.86 660.00 59.31 670.00 60.21 19 200 0 0 0 0 With state government cutbacks now behind us, it is expected that vacancy has peaked. While demand remains low, a lack of new construction may limit the pressure on vacancy rates. Local Measure: sqm Ho Chi Minh City Local Currency: US$/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm Bangkok Local Currency: THB/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm Brisbane Local Currency: AUD/sqm/yr Local Measure: sqm SOURCE FOR EXCHANGE RATES: FINANCIAL TIMES, 21 OCT 2013, CLOSING PRICE 13 Absorption to remain positive due to firm economic and property fundamentals. Tightening vacancies and limited supply to allow moderate increases in rents. 6.2 Rents reached a bottom in 2013 and are expected to remain relatively stable in 2014. Shortage of larger spaces likely to continue next year and we expect the impact of new supply on rent to be marginal in 2015.
  23. 23. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication ASIA PACIFIC: OFFICE MARKET FORECAST 2013-2015 CBD CLASS A VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) 2015 (%) CBD CLASS A RENTS 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency CLASS A NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 Local Measure SF COMMENTARY 2015 Local Measure SF SF SOUTHEAST ASIA/PACIFIC Melbourne Local Currency: AUD/sqm/yr 9.6 10.3 10.5 625.00 56.16 620.00 55.72 610.00 54.82 152 1,635 67 721 103 1,113 An increase in building completions over the coming years will maintain upward pressure on vacancy rates. With only a moderate increase in office demand, it can be assumed that vacancy will continue to climb. 6.6 9.2 13.9 810.00 72.79 810.00 72.79 800.00 71.89 0 0 34 361 106 1,141 The downturn in the resources sector has not had as great an impact as expected, with a lack of speculative development helping to keep the lid on vacancy rates. 11.4 12.0 15.2 875.00 78.63 875.00 78.63 860.00 77.28 50 539 48 519 225 2,416 With much of upcoming new developments precommitted, a sizeable amount of backfill space will enter the market over the next 2-3 years. Attractive rents and flexible lease terms should continue. 7,637 Limited supply is likely to reduce vacancy in 2014 whereas a large volume of new supply will increase availabilities in 2015. Strong demand and healthy leasing activity should support steady rental growth over next two years. Local Measure: sqm Perth Local Currency: AUD/sqm/yr Local Measure: sqm Sydney Local Currency: AUD/sqm/yr Local Measure: sqm NORTHEAST ASIA Guangzhou Local Currency: RMB/sqm/mo 18.0 9.0 14.0 283.62 51.90 299.24 54.76 307.87 56.34 810 8,718 185 1,988 710 Local Measure: sqm Hong Kong Local Currency: HK$/sf/mo 7.0 6.6 5.7 105.51 163.37 105.77 163.77 115.63 179.05 0 0 95 95 172 172 Local Measure: sf Shanghai Local Currency: RMB/sqm/mo 5.5 5.5 7.5 459.88 84.15 464.68 85.03 453.48 82.98 492 5,298 483 5,202 783 8,427 With the establishment of Shanghai Free Trade Zone, office demand is likely to grow in emerging submarkets and the decentralizing trend will gain momentum. Rentals may record a modest growth in 2014 given a lack of new supply. 2,939 The rise of emerging submarkets due to decentralization and other office property types, as well as the slowdown of macro-economic growth will influence the core-area office demand and rental growth. The decentralizing trend will be on the rise. Local Measure: sqm Beijing Local Currency: RMB/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm 6.4 7.6 7.3 556.46 101.82 558.62 102.22 559.93 102.46 225 2,421 261 2,809 273 Banks in Greater Central, and large occupiers in general, will continue to focus on cost containment, but overall demand will slowly improve due to more stable economic conditions. Rents have stabilized and will likely experience flat growth in 2014. 14
  24. 24. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication ASIA PACIFIC: OFFICE MARKET FORECAST 2013-2015 CBD CLASS A VACANCY 2013 (%) CBD CLASS A RENTS 2013 2014 CLASS A NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 2013 2014 COMMENTARY 2015 2014 (%) 2015 (%) 12.6 11.7 16.4 333.09 60.95 348.72 63.81 349.42 63.94 486 5,231 324 3,483 251 2,706 Moderate supply and demand growth should keep rents elevated in 2014. However, the pre-leasing of large-scale upcoming space could hinder rental growth in 2015 despite healthy leasing activity. 36.8 33.2 40.2 170.76 31.25 170.91 31.27 158.79 29.06 468 5,040 341 3,666 1,025 11,031 Demand would balance new space in 2014 and stabilize rents at current levels. However, a steady stream of supply will cause rents to fall sharply in 2015 and beyond. Local Currency US$/ SF/YR Local Currency US$/ SF/YR Local Currency US$/ SF/YR Local Measure Local Measure SF SF Local Measure SF NORTHEAST ASIA Shenzhen Local Currency: RMB/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm Chengdu Local Currency: RMB/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm Tokyo Local Currency: JPY/tsubo/mo 3.8 3.1 2.5 25,500 87.62 28,000 96.21 30,000 103.08 113 4,031 136 4,826 165 5,883 Demand is set to grow gradually following the economic recovery and absorb vacancies. Accordingly, vacancy rates are anticipated to trend downward over the next 4 years, helped by a moderate level of new constructions, and rents are expected to rise. 14.6 12.9 10.9 37,810 39.68 38,245 40.14 38,878 40.80 373 4,012 140 1,502 137 1,474 New supply will boost vacancies in CBD during 2014. Given the market conditions, occupiers will actively review more efficient relocation options, thereby keeping transaction activity stable. 11.6 12.0 15.7 4,890 56.09 4,890 56.09 4,890 56.09 0 0 9 303 26 919 Moderate demand and new supply in Xinyi Planned Area will impact vacancies. Upcoming space in Nankang submarket at much lower rents is likely to be a barrier for rental growth in 2014-15. 14.5 14.2 12.0 58.19 11.35 57.71 11.26 60.42 11.79 9,135 9,135 6,932 6,932 5,498 5,498 Vacancy levels are expected to decline starting in 2014 due to limited supply and healthy demand. Rental rates in most locations are set to see a gradual uptrend over the next two years. 3,250 Supply will exceed demand thereby increasing vacancies in 2014. Availability of large-sized space options in the Madhapur submarket will help to keep the leasing momentum healthy. Rents are likely to remain stable. Local Measure: tsubo Seoul Local Currency: KRW/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm Taipei Local Currency: NT$/ping/mo Local Measure: ping INDIA* Bengaluru Local Currency: INR/sf/mo Local Measure: sf Hyderabad Local Currency: INR/sf/mo Local Measure: sf 12.6 17.4 16.2 47.67 9.30 47.70 9.31 47.72 9.31 1,868 1,868 4,560 4,560 3,250 * RENTS ARE NOT CONFINED TO THE CBD IN INDIA DUE TO A MORE DIVERSE OFFICE MARKET. HOWEVER, PROPERTIES CHOSEN TO BENCHMARK RENTS ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE FOUND IN THE REGION’S CBDs. 15
  25. 25. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication ASIA PACIFIC: OFFICE MARKET FORECAST 2013-2015 CBD CLASS A VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) 2015 (%) CBD CLASS A RENTS 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency CLASS A NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 SF Local Measure COMMENTARY 2015 SF Local Measure SF INDIA* Delhi NCR Local Currency: INR/sf/mo 29.0 31.4 30.9 82.02 16.00 74.85 14.60 70.77 13.81 8,396 8,396 7,800 7,800 6,457 6,457 Rents will increase marginally in the CBD due to lack of supply and scarcity of space. High demand and increasing rents are likely in Gurgaon CBD. Oversupply will impact rents in Gurgaon and Noida non-core locations in 2014-15. 1,139 Relocations from CBD to BKC and Lower Parel may gain momentum with increasing availabilities at lower rents due to a rise in supply. Vacancy in non-core markets such as Andheri and Malad are expected to decline, with low supply and healthy absorption pushing rentals upward in 2014 and beyond. Local Measure: sf Mumbai Local Currency: INR/sf/mo 18.7 25.6 25.8 295.36 57.63 284.55 55.52 279.63 54.56 150 150 1,500 1,500 1,139 Local Measure: sf Chennai Local Currency: INR/sf/mo 15.1 13.3 11.3 54.29 10.59 54.62 10.66 54.74 10.68 3,663 3,663 666 666 950 950 Local Measure: sf Pune Local Currency: INR/sf/mo Local Measure: sf 23.2 21.4 18.2 57.17 11.16 56.12 10.95 56.96 11.11 4,066 4,066 3,180 3,180 2,998 2,998 High vacancy and availability of better-quality IT space in suburban locations like Guindy, Perangudi and Taramani should keep CBD rents in check. Limited supply, healthy absorption and rising rents are expected in non-core locations in 2014. Moderate demand, high vacancy and an increased preference for suburban markets with lower rentals could pressure core areas. Healthy demand is expected in non-core markets and rents are likely to remain stable. * RENTS ARE NOT CONFINED TO THE CBD IN INDIA DUE TO A MORE DIVERSE OFFICE MARKET. HOWEVER, PROPERTIES CHOSEN TO BENCHMARK RENTS ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE FOUND IN THE REGION’S CBDs. 16
  26. 26. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication EMEA: POSITIVE SIGNS David Hutchings Partner, Head of the European Research Group market, as well as for those ready to take risks and restart development and refurbishment. Investors are very much focused on core markets, but as opportunities reduce for well-priced quality stock they are pushing their geographic boundaries and looking at the ‘best-of-the-rest’ in second tier cities and markets. will however remain differentiated city by city not just country by country. Occupiers have a clear preference for quality space at the expense of secondary, and many are encountering supply constraints in some cities, particularly those seeking larger floor plates. This is pushing some to move sooner than expected to secure deals on the decreasing amount of quality space that is available. SOME CLEAR WINNERS Major international cities such as London, Stockholm and Frankfurt have led in this recovery, but others are now joining in, including some that had been in what was Europe’s distressed fringe. Dublin, for example, has A BRIGHTER, IF STILL MIXED FUTURE At an aggregated level, following an increase in completions this year, 2014 will also see more activity. This will be reflected in the vacancy rate, which is anticipated to rise in 2014 before declining as development completions plateau and demand firms, potentially taking vacancy down to its lowest since 2008. The decline in completions is linked to both the lagged impact of the eurozone crisis and the ongoing shortage of financing for speculative projects. For occupiers, this will exacerbate the shortage of modern stock already evident within the profile of availability – delivering an ongoing two-tier market with limited prime supply and an abundant choice of second-tier space. For investors, this suggests areas of opportunity away from the grade A 17 Returning confidence will help to reignite the leasing market, as more occupiers are ready to act to improve or grow their business, not just save costs. The market ABSORPTION AS A PERCENTAGE OF INVENTORY VS. COMPOUND ANNUAL RENT GROWTH (2013-15) 14.0% Compound Annual Rent Growth 2013-2015 Marked improvements in Europe’s economy have been seen this year with the eurozone officially emerging from recession and confidence rising in both consumer and business sectors. While this is clearly positive, downside risks are still very much in the picture. Growth is expected to be slow overall and remain very mixed country by country. Indeed, while the action of the European Central Bank has been critical in underpinning confidence in the region as a whole, austerity measures continue to weigh on individual markets, making risks more local in nature. Hence, as some of the core markets of Europe gain momentum, the slow recovery in other areas continues to subdue occupier demand for property. 12.0% No markets fall between 17% and 30% 10.0% 8.0% London 6.0% Budapest Frankfurt Luxembourg 4.0% 2.0% Stockholm 0.0% Brussels -2.0% -3.0% Dublin Munich Istanbul Moscow Madrid Zurich Amsterdam Lisbon Barcelona Paris Milan Prague 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% Bucharest Warsaw 9.0% 12.0% 15.0% Absorption as a Percentage of Inventory 2013-2015 SOURCE: CUSHMAN WAKEFIELD RESEARCH 33.0% 36.0%
  27. 27. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication bounced strongly and with no new construction underway and more stringent planning procedures coming, doubledigit rental growth is anticipated. More widely, a modest rise in speculative development is anticipated from late 2014 onwards as investors and lenders take on more risk. Pre-letting will be attractive and markets with expanding demand pipelines, such as London, could lead the development cycle. In key German and Nordic cities, the recovery has been supply-led but more companies are also now looking to increase their operational footprint as economic growth improves. To the east, the story is the same with star performers Moscow and Istanbul where rental growth is anticipated on the back of limited quality supply and improving demand. In Istanbul, new submarkets are emerging due to infrastructure developments. OTHERS STILL WAIT FOR TAKEOFF Thanks to the depth and duration of the downturn, manifested in high levels of unemployment, concerns over income levels and tight credit conditions, a number of cities are blighted by an oversupply that will take time to absorb and, in markets such as Rome, Lisbon and Barcelona, occupiers can choose from a plethora of options. To the east, new development in Warsaw and Prague should attract more occupiers but here and in other markets such as Bucharest and Budapest, conditions will continue to favor tenants, with landlords offering attractive incentives, including rent free periods even on short leases and capital contributions, in order to attract and hold tenants in situ. However, even in these markets, occupiers are moving to take more favored space off the market at the expense of lower quality and less efficient office accommodation – some of which is converted into alternative uses such as hotels or more commonly residential. In time, this will limit quality supply and exert mild upward pressure on rents as early as next year even in some markets where vacancy is still high, such as Milan, Madrid and Amsterdam. Occupiers have a clear preference for quality space at the expense of secondary, and many are encountering supply constraints in some cities, particularly those seeking larger floor plates. NEW SUPPLY AS A PERCENTAGE OF INVENTORY (2013-2015) Dublin Madrid Stockholm London Lisbon Barcelona Milan Amsterdam Zurich Munich Brussels Paris Budapest Frankfurt Luxembourg Prague Warsaw Bucharest Moscow Istanbul 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Supply as Percentage of Inventory SOURCE: CUSHMAN WAKEFIELD RESEARCH 18
  28. 28. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication EMEA: MAJOR OFFICE MARKETS FORECAST OVERALL VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) CLASS A / PRIME RENTS 2015 (%) 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 Local Measure SF COMMENTARY 2015 Local Measure SF SF WESTERN EUROPE Amsterdam Local Currency: €/sqm/yr 14.5 13.9 13.8 360.00 45.74 365.00 46.37 365.00 46.37 59 636 67 721 0 0 Minimal economic growth and austerity measures are intrinsic to office market performance. A drive for efficiency and consolidation, in particular from public bodies, is seeing excess space released and vacancy rates stabilise at best as construction slows. 595 Total availability is high, but grade A vacancy is low with space absorbed as occupiers upgrade in a pressurized rental market. Positive growth will follow as limited speculative completions decrease further with developers reluctant to commit in the absence of pre-lets. 431 An improving macroeconomic environment provides the backdrop for a better performance in the office market from 2014. The choice of quality supply levels are relatively low, with rising numbers converted buildings, which is supporting positive rental growth as incentives are gradually withdrawn. 161 Recovery is on its way in the Irish office market alongside a more robust economic performance. Quality space is in demand as companies upgrade or expand their accommodation. Availability is falling and there are constraints for those seeking large amounts of contiguous space. 1,254 Structural oversupply challenges exist, however quality space is still being absorbed with relative ease, bolstered by solid economic fundamentals that are supporting positive rental growth. Net addition to stock is being offset by new completions as stock withdrawals continue. Tough economic conditions were particularly pronounced for the financial and business service sector which shed employment negatively impacting on rents. As demand improves in 2015 and competition intensifies for high quality space, which is limited, a rental recovery should follow. Local Measure: sqm Barcelona Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 13.5 14.0 13.1 17.50 26.68 17.75 27.06 18.00 27.44 46 497 9 99 55 Local Measure: sqm Brussels Local Currency: €/sqm/yr 10.0 10.0 9.7 275.00 34.94 275.00 34.94 280.00 35.57 281 3,029 30 323 40 Local Measure: sqm Dublin Local Currency: €/sqm/yr 17.8 15.5 11.9 339.00 43.07 390.00 49.55 431.00 54.76 0 0 0 0 15 Local Measure: sqm Frankfurt Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 12.3 11.8 12.1 37.00 56.41 37.50 57.17 39.00 59.46 195 2,103 252 2,713 117 Local Measure: sqm Lisbon Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 12.3 11.8 10.1 18.50 28.21 18.00 27.44 18.50 28.21 41 436 37 394 8 87 6.6 6.8 6.3 110.00 177.75 120.00 193.91 127.50 206.03 3,075 3,075 6,433 6,433 2,456 2,456 Local Measure: sqm London Local Currency: £/sf/yr Local Measure: sf Occupier activity strengthens as the risk appetite to take decisions grows in anticipation of a dearth of future supply, increasing rental values amid a steadily more positive economic scenario. SOURCE FOR EXCHANGE RATES: FINANCIAL TIMES, 21 OCT 2013, CLOSING PRICE 19
  29. 29. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication EMEA: MAJOR OFFICE MARKETS FORECAST OVERALL VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) CLASS A / PRIME RENTS 2015 (%) 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 SF Local Measure COMMENTARY 2015 SF Local Measure SF WESTERN EUROPE Luxembourg Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 5.6 5.1 5.0 43.00 65.56 44.00 67.08 45.00 68.61 64 693 106 1,139 74 791 Local Measure: sqm Madrid Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 11.8 10.9 9.5 24.50 37.35 25.00 38.12 25.50 38.88 81 868 70 753 0 0 Local Measure: sqm 15.1 14.5 13.3 475.00 60.35 465.00 59.08 480.00 60.99 47 506 70 755 74 792 1,138 Healthy fundamentals will support good growth going forward. Strong take-up levels, held back by supply shortages especially for large floorplates, will outstrip the amount of new speculative supply coming to the market. In turn rents at the top end will rise. 7,361 Persistent fiscal pressures, an uncertain business environment and high unemployment have slowed occupier activity, and rents declined in 2013. A revival of activity in 2014-2015 is expected as limited new completions are due in Paris proper and demand continues to erode excess space. Local Measure: sqm Munich Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 7.1 7.1 5.6 32.00 48.79 32.50 49.55 34.00 51.84 161 1,734 189 2,030 106 Local Measure: sqm Paris Local Currency: €/sqm/yr 8.0 7.7 7.4 810.00 102.91 810.00 102.91 820.00 104.18 642 6,909 496 5,341 684 Local Measure: sqm Stockholm Local Currency: SKr/sqm/yr 8.9 9.7 11.0 4,650 67.48 4,700 68.20 4,800 69.65 20 215 56 606 88 947 The strong performance of the economy will continue. As unemployment trends downwards and the financial and business service sector grows, vacancy for quality stock will fall as rents increase linked to companies increasing their real estate footprints. 431 Companies move to new developments as they consolidate and reduce costs in what is still a pressurized rental market. As supply gradually reduces expansion plans are reactivated in late 2014, underpinned by a stronger economy, vacancies may reduce, followed by potential rental rises. Local Measure: sqm Zurich Local Currency: SFr/sqm/yr Local Measure: sqm 4.7 4.9 4.8 760.00 78.30 760.00 78.30 760.00 78.30 32 340 56 597 40 Secondhand space continues to be released by tenants who are downsizing and/or upgrading their workplaces in a weak tenant market with muted rental growth. Any improvements are not expected until late 2014 at the earliest when some positive growth is likely. The ongoing weak economy is underpinning a market characterized by strategic relocations and renegotiations of existing contracts as occupiers look for more efficient space. Landlords are increasingly flexible offering rent-free periods and capital incentives. Conditions will persist through 2014, with improvements in 2015. Milan Local Currency: €/sqm/yr A healthy financial and banking sector is imperative to office sector performance. Rising demand and restricted speculative development results in erosion of grade A space that will support rental growth. Central areas will reap long term benefits from approved transport projects. 20
  30. 30. DECEMBER 2013 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication EMEA: MAJOR OFFICE MARKETS FORECAST OVERALL VACANCY 2013 (%) 2014 (%) CLASS A / PRIME RENTS 2015 (%) 2013 Local Currency 2014 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency NEW SUPPLY (000s) 2015 US$/ SF/YR Local Currency 2013 US$/ SF/YR Local Measure 2014 SF Local Measure COMMENTARY 2015 SF Local Measure SF CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE Bucharest Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 13.5 14.7 14.0 19.00 28.97 19.00 28.97 19.50 29.73 123 1,328 147 1,585 100 1,076 As domestic conditions recover and unemployment continues to decline, office market fundamentals will also improve. However, this is from a low base and despite less speculative construction and more robust demand, rental rises are unlikely before late 2015. 254 Hungary is still working through the after effects of its recession and despite an improving financial and business services sector, unemployment is stubbornly high. However, occupier activity is improving and 'control' is firmly with tenants as landlords compete for deals in an oversupplied market. Local Measure: sqm Budapest Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 17.9 16.4 15.8 21.00 32.02 21.00 32.02 22.00 33.54 61 661 45 487 24 Local Measure: sqm Istanbul Local Currency: US$/sqm/mo 8.4 7.7 6.3 45.00 50.17 45.50 50.72 47.00 52.40 300 3,229 937 10,082 640 6,887 Rental growth may be restrained short-term as supply surges ahead with the emergence of new submarkets. 2014 will see the situation rectify itself as requirements are satisfied and demand for quality stock, which the city severely lacks, increases. 7,834 Despite an upward tick in overall vacancy in 2014, a strong and improving economy will see occupier activity gain further traction, and increased competition from tenants for quality space and rents will come under sustained upward pressure over the next 18-24 months. 1,615 With a plethora of choice for occupiers, the market continues to be tenant-led. Due to huge current construction the vacancy rate will increase in spite of strengthening demand, putting additional pressure on incentives and rents. 2,570 Pressure on real estate fundamentals may ease temporarily, but there is a danger that with a large amount of speculative space due to complete in 2014 any improvements in employment will not be able to offset rental declines before a more robust 2015. Local Measure: sqm Moscow Local Currency: US$/sqm/yr 13.3 16.1 12.9 1,200 111.48 1,225 113.81 1,250 116.13 1,169 12,580 900 9,688 728 Local Measure: sqm Prague Local Currency: €/sqm/mo 14.2 15.0 16.2 20.50 31.26 20.00 30.49 20.00 30.49 88 947 170 1,830 150 Local Measure: sqm Warsaw Local Currency: €/sqm/mo Local Measure: sqm 21 11.5 12.0 11.5 25.50 38.88 25.00 38.12 25.50 38.88 321 3,459 224 2,408 239
  31. 31. GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 A Cushman Wakefield Research Publication Cushman Wakefield is known as a global industry knowledge leader. Through the delivery of timely, accurate, high-quality research reports on the leading trends, markets around the world, forecasts and business issues, we aim to assist our clients in making property decisions that meet their objectives and enhance their competitive position. Cushman Wakefield also provides customized studies to meet the specific information needs of owners, occupiers and investors. Published by Cushman Wakefield Research For more information, contact: CONTRIBUTORS AMERICAS Maria T. Sicola Executive Managing Director, Research Americas San Francisco, CA Lic. # 00616335 T +1 (415) 773-3542 E maria.sicola@cushwake.com Elle Saling Project Manager, Research Los Angeles, CA Lic. # 00616335 T +1 (818) 634 2598 E elle.saling@cushwake.com EUROPE ASIA PACIFIC Paula F. Munger Managing Director, Research Mid-Atlantic / Southeast Tysons Corner, VA T +1 (703) 847 2785 E paula.munger@cushwake.com David Hutchings Partner, Head of the European Research Group London, UK T +44 (0) 20 7152 5029 E david.hutchings@eur.cushwake.com Alex Milojevic Senior Research Consultant, European Research London, UK T +44 (0) 20 7152 5936 E alex.milojevic@eur.cushwake.com Sigrid Zialcita Managing Director, Research Asia Pacific Singapore T +(65) 6232 0875 E sigrid.zialcita@ap.cushwake.com Robert C. Miller, III Director of Research, Capital Markets / Forecasting San Francisco, CA Lic. # 00616335 T +1 (415) 773 3561 E rob.miller@cushwake.com Joanna Tano Director, European Research London, UK T +44 (0) 20 7152 5944 E joanna.tano@eur.cushwake.com Neil McLocklin Partner, Global Business Consulting EMEA London, UK T +44 (0) 77 1547 5135 E neil.mclocklin@eur.cushwake.com Lai Wyai Kay Senior Manager, Research Services Asia Pacific T +(65) 6232 0864 E wyaikay.lai@ap.cushwake.com Nagaraj Kapil Kanala Senior Manager, Research Services Hyderabad, India T +(91) 40 4040 5531 E kapil.kanala@ap.cushwake.com Cushman Wakefield is the world’s largest privately held commercial real estate services firm. The company advises and represents clients on all aspects of property occupancy and investment, and has established a preeminent position in the world’s major markets, as evidenced by its frequent involvement in many of the most significant property leases, sales and management assignments. Founded in 1917, it has approximately 250 offices in 60 countries, employing more than 16,000 employees. It offers a complete range of services for all property types, including leasing, sales and acquisitions, equity, debt and structured finance, corporate finance and investment banking, corporate services, property management, facilities management, project management, consulting and appraisal. The firm has more than $3.7 billion in assets under management globally. A recognized leader in local and global real estate research, the firm publishes its market information and studies online at www.cushmanwakefield.com/knowledge. © 2013 Cushman Wakefield, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
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