CBRE Global In-SightsCommercial Real EstateMarket Conditions in CanadaPresented byJohn O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limite...
Asieh Mansour Asieh Mansour, Ph.D. Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research Asieh directs ...
John O’Bryan John O’Bryan Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada John O’Bryan is Vice Chairman of CBRE’s Limited, where his p...
It Is All About Jobs!                                 2,000                                                               ...
Canada “An Oasis of Stability”                            Office – 9.4%                            Industrial – 5.3%      ...
Bank Stability Makes the Difference   Soundest Banking Systems                                                  World’s 50...
Improvement in U.S. Office Vacancy Lags Canada                                                                            ...
Canada Outperforms!                                                                                                       ...
Retail Stability in Canada, U.S. Continues to Struggle                                                                    ...
National Multi-Residential                       $1,000                                                                   ...
Who Bought in 2011 YTD? (Incl Hotel & ICI)                                                                   Multi- Buyers...
Cap Rates Hit 2007 Levels – Going Lower?     11%     10%      9%      8%      7%      6%      5%                 2000     ...
Metro Toronto Convention Centre Complex $237.4 Million  1.95M SF Development on 7.41 Acres  Incorporates:   • 225, 255& ...
Canadian Investment Transactions ($B)Property                               2004         2005    2006    2007    2008    2...
Thank YouCBRE Global In-SightsThe Global In-Sights podcasts and PDF presentations are available fordownload on www.cbre.co...
CBRE Global In-SightsCommercial Real EstateMarket Conditions in CanadaPresented byJohn O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limite...
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CBRE - m

  1. 1. CBRE Global In-SightsCommercial Real EstateMarket Conditions in CanadaPresented byJohn O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, CanadaAsieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas andSenior Managing Director, Global ResearchOctober, 2011The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download onwww.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx.Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app.Global Research and Consulting
  2. 2. Asieh Mansour Asieh Mansour, Ph.D. Head of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Research Asieh directs Americas commercial real estate market analysts, advises Americas leadership and professionals on economic issues, and serves as spokesperson on the commercial real estate environment. She has more than 20 years experience as a leading real estate economist in commercial real estate. asieh.mansour@cbre.comGlobal Research and ConsultingCB Richard Ellis | Page 2
  3. 3. John O’Bryan John O’Bryan Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, Canada John O’Bryan is Vice Chairman of CBRE’s Limited, where his primary responsibility is to oversee the marketing initiatives of the company. John has over 35 years of experience in brokerage and management positions. His career began in 1974 when he founded and managed the Appraisal Practice Group of Royal LePage. In 1985 John moved into the brokerage industry where he was a top 10 broker for Royal Le Page until 1990. John has sold some of the highest profile assets in Canada and was responsible for over $8 billion in transaction activity. John has also completed over 3 million SF of leasing activity in the last decade. john.obryan@cbre.comGlobal Research and ConsultingCB Richard Ellis | Page 3
  4. 4. It Is All About Jobs! 2,000 200 Aug. ‘11 Nov. ‘10 2008 0 0 Canada Job Losses (000s)U.S. Job Losses (000s) -2,000 -200 -4,000 -400 -6,000 Aug. ‘11 -600 -8,000 -800 -10,000 -1000 0 10 20 30 40 US ( L ) Canada ( R ) Source: Statistics Canada and Bureau of Labor Statistics Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
  5. 5. Canada “An Oasis of Stability” Office – 9.4% Industrial – 5.3% CANADA Office – 8.2% Industrial – 7.5% Office – 17.9% Office – 20.6% Industrial – 11.1% Industrial – 12.0% Office – 13.4% Industrial – 13.7% USA Office – 19.7% Industrial – 14.9% Source: CBREGlobal Research and ConsultingCB Richard Ellis | Page 5
  6. 6. Bank Stability Makes the Difference Soundest Banking Systems World’s 50 Safest Banks • Canada (1) • KfW; Germany (1) • South Africa (2) • Caisse des Depots et • Panama (3) Consignations; France (2) • Australia (4) • Bank Nederlandse • Singapore (5) Gemeenten; Netherlands (3) *** *** • France (27) • Royal Bank of Canada (11) • Japan (72) • Toronto-Dominion Bank (13) • Germany(87) • Scotiabank (18) • United States (90) • BMO Financial Group (30) • United Kingdom (111) • CIBC (31) Source: The World Economic Forum’s Global Competiveness Report Source: Global Finance 2011-2012Global Research and ConsultingCB Richard Ellis | Page 6
  7. 7. Improvement in U.S. Office Vacancy Lags Canada Forecast 24 20 16 Vacancy Rates (%) 12 8 4 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2011 Canada US Source: CBRE-EA Office Outlook, Winter 2011 Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
  8. 8. Canada Outperforms! Forecast 16% 14% 12%Availability Rate 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 Canada US Source: CBRE-EA Canada Industrial Outlook XL, Spring 2011 Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
  9. 9. Retail Stability in Canada, U.S. Continues to Struggle Forecast 14% 11% Estimated Vacancy Rate (%) 8% 6% 3% 0% 2011 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Canada US Source: CBRE EA Retail Spring Outlook 2011 and CBRE Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
  10. 10. National Multi-Residential $1,000 5.0 $800 4.0 Vacancy Rate (%) $600 3.0Average Monthly Rent $400 2.0 $200 1.0 $0 0.0 Mid-2011 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average Rent Vacancy Source: CBRE, CMHC Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
  11. 11. Who Bought in 2011 YTD? (Incl Hotel & ICI) Multi- Buyers Office Industrial Retail ICI-Land Hotel Total Res Private/Syndicates 24.8% 50.8% 36.6% 58.8% 95.3% 100.0% 43.8% Foreign 5.8% 1.7% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% Pension Fund 3.2% 3.1% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% Institutions 6.9% 9.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 4.2% REITs/REOCs 56.5% 31.3% 36.6% 34.3% 1.6% 0.0% 37.7% Private Equity 2.9% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet CanadaGlobal Research and ConsultingCB Richard Ellis | Page 11
  12. 12. Cap Rates Hit 2007 Levels – Going Lower? 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 Office - CBD A Industrial - A & B Retail - Neighbourhood Multi-Res - B Source: CBREGlobal Research and ConsultingCB Richard Ellis | Page 12
  13. 13. Metro Toronto Convention Centre Complex $237.4 Million  1.95M SF Development on 7.41 Acres  Incorporates: • 225, 255& 277 Front Street West • 586 Room InterContinental Hotel • 265,000 SF Class A Office Tower • 1,200 Parking Stall  Vendor: Canada Lands CLC Limited  Purchaser: Oxford Properties Group  Deal Date: September 14, 2011Global Research and ConsultingCB Richard Ellis | Page 13
  14. 14. Canadian Investment Transactions ($B)Property 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H11TypeOffice $4.1 $5.4 $4.4 $10.3 $6.0 $2.5 $3.7 $2.4Industrial $3.4 $4.1 $7.2 $5.8 $4.4 $2.7 $5.7 $2.0Retail $4.0 $4.1 $4.0 $4.4 $3.2 $2.4 $3.7 $3.0Multi-Res $2.9 $3.0 $3.5 $4.4 $3.2 $2.4 $2.9 $1.7Land $2.5 $2.4 $3.9 $4.6 $4.0 $2.6 $2.7 $1.2Hotel $0.3 $0.8 $1.3 $2.6 $0.3 $0.2 $0.2 $0.1Total $17.3 $19.8 $24.2 $32.2 $21.1 $12.7 $18.9 $10.3 Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet Canada Global Research and Consulting CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
  15. 15. Thank YouCBRE Global In-SightsThe Global In-Sights podcasts and PDF presentations are available fordownload on www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx.Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on theCBRE iPhone app.To register to receive Global In-Sights announcements, please go tohttp://www.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspxAsieh MansourHead of Research, Americas and Senior Managing Director, Global Researchasieh.mansour@cbre.comCBRE© 2011 CBRE, Inc. We obtained the information contained in this presentation from sources we believe to be reliable. However, wehave not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility oferrors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing, or withdrawal without notice. We includeprojections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of theproperty. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction.Global Research and Consulting
  16. 16. CBRE Global In-SightsCommercial Real EstateMarket Conditions in CanadaPresented byJohn O’Bryan, Vice Chairman, CBRE Limited, CanadaAsieh Mansour, Head of Research, Americas andSenior Managing Director, Global ResearchOctober, 2011The Global In-Sights podcasts PDF presentations are available for download onwww.cbre.com/EN/Research/pages/globalinsights.aspx.Podcasts are also available through iTunes under podcasts and on the CBRE iPhone app.Global Research and Consulting
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