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Petley - Large Landslides and Dams Petley - Large Landslides and Dams Presentation Transcript

  • Landslides and large dams David Petley Wilson Professor Hazard and Risk Dean of Research and Global Engagement Durham University, United Kingdom ∂ http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/ Google: “landslide blog AGU”
  • Vajont The key lesson in dams and landslides ∂ Images from Wikipedia
  • Large landslides and dam projects • But, some landslides have continued to occur on the flanks of reservoirs • Some, but perhaps surprisingly few, have been fatal • E.g. Qianjinangping landslide, July 2003, 24 fatalities: ∂
  • Clyde Dam, New Zealand: Successful landslide management €580 million (2005 value) ∂
  • Existing large dams UN large dam database (2012) ∂ Each red dot is a large dam on the UN database. Existing dams are concentrated in mountain areas, but not in very high mountains
  • Large dam density UN large dam database (2012) ∂ Few dams here Contour map of the density of existing large dams Existing dams are concentrated in medium but not in very high mountain areas
  • Distribution of fatality-inducing landslides 2004-2011 ∂ Each dot is a landslide that killed one or more people. Note the focus of landslides in high mountain areas, especially the Himalayas
  • Large dams and fatality-inducing landslide events (2004-2011) ∂ The distribution of fatal landslides and large existing dams does not overlap significantly, especially in the Himalayas Conclusion: we have mostly built large dams where landslides do not kill many people (NB China)
  • Large dams completed since 1990 ∂ Each dot is a large dam constructed since 1990 Note: • Increased numbers of dams in China • Dams starting to be constructed in high mountain areas There is more dam building now in areas with many landslides
  • Analysis of landslides associated with large dams • Fatality-inducing landslides between 2003 and 2012 that have been associated with large dams: 500 deaths in 37 landslide events ∂
  • Date Country Location Deaths 13/07/2003 03/08/2004 23/04/2004 26/04/2005 28/06/2005 07/10/2006 15/12/2007 19/07/2007 20/07/2007 10/08/2007 14/08/2007 07/09/2007 15/12/2007 12/05/2008 20/05/2008 07/06/2008 31/07/2008 11/09/2008 07/05/2009 03/06/2009 23/07/2009 31/07/2009 23/01/2010 14/02/2010 15/06/2010 26/07/2010 31/07/2010 02/08/2010 15/06/2011 18/09/2011 18/09/2011 18/09/2011 28/02/2011 28/06/2012 13/07/2012 30/08/2012 15/05/2012 China India China India India China Vietnam China China China India Bhutan Vietnam China Chile Bhutan China Nepal Tajikistan Vietnam China China Vietnam India China China Pakistan Nepal China India India India India China China China Turkey Qiangjingping Tehri Dam, Uttranchal Majuangou, Shaanxi Mulliyar, Kerala Shahpur, Ghatgar Fangxian C’ty, Hubei Tuong Duong, Nghe An Sujiahekou , Yunnan Guide County, Qinghai Ya'an City, Sichuan Dharla, Himachal Pradesh Chukha dzong Tuong Duong, Nghe An Jinhe HEP San Fernando Wangkha Ya'an City, Sichuan Khare VDC, Dolakha Rogun Nam Khoa, Lao Cai Kangding C’ty, Sichuan Jinyang C’ty, Sichuan Ve village, Yen Bai Kinnaur, Himanchal Pradesh Kangding county, Sichuan Gongshan Drung-Nu, Yunnan Patan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Gaurishankar, Dolakha Shiyan, Hubei Salim Payel, Mangan Teesta HEP, Sikkim Teesta HEP, Sikkim Asiganga, Uttarakashi. Ningnan C’ty, Sichuan Shuicheng C’ty, Guizhou Liangshan Yi Sichuan Kızıltaş, Dereli, Giresun 24 29 4 10 15 6 18 29 8 12 62 2 18 22 1 12 5 1 2 4 54 9 1 8 23 11 3 11 3 10 1 7 4 40 3 24 4 ∂ Indicative dam project NB low certainty Three Gorges Dam Tehri Dam Small scale hydro Small scale hydro Ghatghar HEP Not known Ban Ve HEP Sujiahekou HEP Laxiwa HP Station Long Tou Shi Dam Ghanvi HEP Chuka HEP Ban Ve HEP Jinhe HEP Not known Tala HP project Long Tou Shi Dam Upper Tamakoshi HP Rogun HEP Nam Khoa HEP Changheba HEP Not known Nam Toc HEP Karcham-Wangtoo HEP Kangding Longtou HEP Unknown Patan Hydropower project Sipirang River HEP Hubei Shyan Longbeiwan Teesta HEP Teesta HEP Teesta HEP Asiganga Phase I Baihetan HEP Maojiahe HEP Baihetan HEP The Kanat Regulator Description Landslide on banks of reservoir Buried in a tunnel Landslide at dam construction site Landslide at dam construction site Buried in a tunnel Rockfall onto workers en route Rockfall onto quarry workers Landslide into workers camp Landslide at dam construction site Landslide at dam construction site Landslide into workers village Landslide into workers camp Rockfall onto quarry workers Landslide at dam construction site Rockfall onto workers en route Rockfall onto workers en route Landslide onto workers en route Rockfall onto road construction workers Landslide at dam construction site Landslide into workers camp Landslide into workers camp Landslide into workers camp Spoil tip landslide Landslide into workers camp Landslide into workers camp Landslide into workers camp Landslide at dam construction site Landslide at dam construction site Landslide at dam construction site Landslide at dam construction site Landslide into workers camp Landslide at dam construction site Landslide at dam construction site Landslide at dam construction site Landslide into workers camp Landslide at dam construction site Landslide at dam construction site
  • Temporal trends in landslide deaths associated with major dam projects 500 150 Cumulative number of deaths Annual number of deaths 400 300 125 100 ∂ 75 200 50 100 25 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Annual number of deaths Cumulative number of deaths 600
  • Landslide setting – numbers of landslides Vajont type event 1 1 2 Construction Landslide into workers camp or village 5 ∂ 17 Rockfall or landslide at road sites Spoil tip landslide Landslide on banks of reservoir 11 Quarry landslide
  • Distribution of landslides associated with large dams ∂ Each dot is a landslide associated with a large dam in the period 2003-2012 Note: • Almost all are in Asia • Hotspots are in the Himalayas and in China
  • 18 Number of landslides 16 Number of Number of landslides deaths 14 12 10 Number of deaths 8 6 4 2 0 ∂ Number of landslides 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Number of deaths Landslides associated with major dam projects
  • Time of year of dam-related landslides Number of recorded landslides 10 9 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 58 36 21 19 17 18 25 51 39 35 25 17 8 7 6 5 4 ∂ 3 2 1 0 Month Peak in northern hemisphere summer implies a predominant rainfall trigger
  • In summary • Until now, large dams have mostly been constructed in upland areas with low to medium sized mountains • Fatal landslide incidence in these areas is generally low • Increasingly we are building dams in very high mountain areas • Fatal landslide incidence in these areas is high ∂ • In recent years there have been many landslides associated with these projects during their construction, especially in China and India • 500 people have died in these landslides
  • Proposed dams and dam related landslides in the Himalayan region ∂ Dam: planned or under construction Fatal landslide associated with a dam
  • Conclusions ∂