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© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   1
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Cisco Confidential   2
• Cost Effective Coverage and                                                                     Capacity                ...
By 2017…  there will be ~5B                                                                                     Global Mob...
66% CAGR 2012–2017                                               12                                                       ...
2012                                 2017                                                            201 MB               ...
GLOBAL                                      2012    2017                         Global MB per Month               201    ...
12                                                 66% CAGR 2012–2017                                                     ...
Unique Conditions Affect Each Region’s Mobile Data Traffic Growth                                                         ...
Ether                             Ether                                                                               net ...
PON                Innovators                                                                                   EoCu PON  ...
• ~600M homes have broadband      today and ~5% of those      subscribers are served by fiber• Majority of FTTH deployment...
Only Active                                                                  Ethernet provides                            ...
6                                                           Shannon bound                                                 ...
Long-term solution: Separate layers of macrocells & small cells                                                           ...
Location of Mobile Internet Use                                                                                   Percenta...
© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.   Source: Infonetics Research, 2011 Confidential                 ...
• Total Connections by 2015:           Microwave (various forms): 53%           Ethernet over Fiber: 27%           PON: 5%...
Small Cell      Hybrid       Macro                                                               SON            SON       ...
• Internet traffic continues to grow at an explosive rate• Users expect to have ubiquitous connectivity and service       ...
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Partho mishra

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FTTH Conference 2013

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  1. 1. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 1
  2. 2. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2
  3. 3. • Cost Effective Coverage and Capacity Across different transports Residential/Indoor/Outdoor • Seamless Mobility Removes friction from authentication, security, and roaming across access types • Common Service, Control Single platform for subscriber, service, policy • Access Agnostic Services Common services across different transports© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 3
  4. 4. By 2017… there will be ~5B Global Mobile traffic will mobile users grow ~13X from 2012 and and ~10B connected 3X faster than fixed devices broadband Average mobile Mobile video will user to generate 2 increase 25X GB/month and and Mobile cloud will be 67% of traffic from tablets applications will mobile traffic will grow 62X account for 84% of mobile traffic© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 4 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index 2012
  5. 5. 66% CAGR 2012–2017 12 11.2 EB 10 Exabytes per Month 8 7.4 EB 6 4.7 EB 4 2.8 EB 2 1.6 EB 0.9 EB 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 5
  6. 6. 2012 2017 201 MB 2.0 GB Traffic/month Traffic/month 1 Hour of Video 10 Hours of Video 2 Hours of Audio 15 Hours of Audio 1 Video call 5 Video calls 1 App Download 15 App DownloadsSource: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 6
  7. 7. GLOBAL 2012 2017 Global MB per Month 201 2,037 BY REGION North America 752 6,171 Western Europe 491 3,343 Asia-Pacific 136 1,788 Latin America 122 1,411 Central & Eastern Europe 200 2,327 Middle East & Africa 73 990Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 7
  8. 8. 12 66% CAGR 2012–2017 Latin America (LATAM) 6.5% 10 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) 7.6% Middle East and Africa (MEA) 7.7% Exabytes per Month 8 Western Europe (WE) 12.4% North America (NA) Asia Pacific (APAC) 18.7% 6 4 47.1% 2 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 8
  9. 9. Unique Conditions Affect Each Region’s Mobile Data Traffic Growth Avg. Mobile Mobile Data # of Mobile # of Mobile # of Users Speed Region Traffic Users Devices/M2M 2GB/Month Increase/4G Growth Connections 2.8B users 5.2B connects 593M 2GB users +57% faster 5.3 EBs/MoAsia Pacific +5% +9% +82% +77% 4G +76%Central & 342M users 785M connects 106M 2GB users +54% faster 845 PBs/MoEastern Europe +1% +6% +102% +124% 4G +66% 494M users 940M connects 116M 2GB users +62% faster 723 PBs/MoLatin America +2% +6% +105% +175% 4G +67%Middle East & 849M users 1.6B connects 150M 2GB users +68% faster 861 PBs/MoAfrica +5% +7% +218% +179% 4G +77% 316M users 841M connects 146M 2GB users +41% faster 2.1 EBs/MoNorth America +2% +13% +37% +53% 4G +56% 380M users 954M connects 138M 2GB users +36% faster 1.4 EBs/MoWestern Europe +1% +10% +46% +117% 4G +50%© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 9
  10. 10. Ether Ether net net Ether Direct Fiber net WDM COAX Fiber MSO/ Cable Ether net Direct Fiber 100Mbps/1Gbps/1 Ether 0Gbps Service net Provider 1 SONET/ Packet SDH Wireless Ether net Ether net Service WiM Provider 2 ax PON Fiber Bond TD DS3/ Ether Ether Ether ed M E3 netEthernet Network Network net T1/E netInterface (NNI) Ether 1 Ether net Ethernet User to Network Interface (UNI) net © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 10
  11. 11. PON Innovators EoCu PON Growing Innovators EoCu Early Adopters Innovators Growing EoF Early Adopters Growing MW xDSL Early Majority Majority EoF PON Growing Early Majority Growing Innovators PON Growing Innovators EoF EoF Early Majority Majority VDSL Early Majority Growing Growing MW Growing Innovators EoCu xDSL Innovators ADSL TDM Late Majority Late Majority TDM Late Majority Waning Waning Waning Innovators Mobile Mobile Business Residential Macro Small Cell© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 11
  12. 12. • ~600M homes have broadband today and ~5% of those subscribers are served by fiber• Majority of FTTH deployments have been in China for FTTB• Globally, many carriers are still evaluating wide scale deployment• Many countries have National Broadband Plans that have yet to begin, and many will eventually require FTTH or FTTB GPON may serve majority Many will require greater bandwidth and symmetric capabilities of P2P Ethernet (ActiveE)© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Source: Point Topic, 3Q12 Confidential Cisco 12
  13. 13. Only Active Ethernet provides true symmetric bandwidth© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Source: Point Topic, 3Q12 Confidential Cisco 13
  14. 14. 6 Shannon bound Shannon bound with 3dB margin Spectral Efficiency (bps/Hz) Downlink, Best-effort data 5 HSDPA EV-DO Figure from 4G 802.16e-2005  LTE similar Americas “HSPA to 4 LTE-Advanced: 3GPP Broadband Evolution to IMT- 3 Physically Advanced (4G)” (Sept 2009) Inaccessible 2 Macrocell path Region to higher spectral efficiency via 1 higher SINR 0 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Average SINR (dB) Typical loaded macrocell conditionsCurrent status: Today’s wireless technologies are close to the Shannon limit for best-effort packet data services.Additional licensed spectrum appropriate for macrocells is presently limited and expensive.Two paths forward for higher air interface capacity: 1. The primary macrocell path is via spectral efficiency improvements by moving to higher SINR. This entails complex interference-reduction means, e.g., interference cancellation and inter-cell coordination (CoMP). 2. The small-cell path is via high spatial reuse (higher bps/km2), i.e., using very large #’s of small cells.© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 14
  15. 15. Long-term solution: Separate layers of macrocells & small cells • Macrocells: large area, 2G/3G/LTE, semi-ubiquitous coverage Macrocell layer(s) • Larger cell means more users/cell (“lower spatial reuse”), hence lower True seamless mobility average rate per user • Designed for high-mobility voice with true seamless handover • Density ≤ 1/km2 Radius ~ 1-10 km • Picos/Femtos: Small/local coverage, 3G/LTE/Wi-Fi, targeted capacity Small cell layer • Smaller cell means fewer users/cell (“higher spatial reuse”), hence higher average rate per user Higher rates per user • Ideal for nomadic data service • Density ≥ 10/km2 Radius ~ 100-300 m Small cell path to higher air interface capacity has potential for far larger gains and is technically simpler than LTE-Adv and CoMP.© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 15
  16. 16. Location of Mobile Internet Use Percentage of Total Time Spent in Activity In transit 21 22 20 20 20 15 Other indoor 14 19 19 15 17 17 location 16 12 15 15 Office 16 18 80% Indoor Use Home 44 54 48 48 54 41 US Canada UK Germany France Italy Source: Cisco IBSG Connected Life Market Watch, 2011, Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2012–2017© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 16
  17. 17. © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Source: Infonetics Research, 2011 Confidential Cisco 17
  18. 18. • Total Connections by 2015: Microwave (various forms): 53% Ethernet over Fiber: 27% PON: 5% EoCu (SHDSL): 1%• New Installations by 2015: Microwave (various forms): 45% Ethernet over Fiber: 38% PON: 12% EoCu (SHDSL): 4%© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Source: Infonetics Research, 2011 Confidential Cisco 18
  19. 19. Small Cell Hybrid Macro SON SON SON HLR / HSS Orchestration, Control Function RAN Analytics Policy Analytics SDP Abstraction Macro 2G/3G/4G Mobile Termination Network Services Small Cell • Firewall / NAT Consumer GWs 3rd Party S/P-GW + • Video/Traffic Apps Broadband MME OptimizationFemto / WiFI • Enhanced Charging IP Operator Transport • Content Filtering Apps BNG • IMS Services Enterprise • Header Enrichment Small Cell • Application Det & Opt Internet 3G/4G/WiFi Broadband Termination • Traffic Control and ReportingConsumer and Enterprise Wired Access Optimized Core Gi/SGi LAN Small Cells Optimized BH Wi-Fi Integration Services © 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 19
  20. 20. • Internet traffic continues to grow at an explosive rate• Users expect to have ubiquitous connectivity and service consistency• Service providers have to find cost-effective way to scale their network capacity and create new monetization opportunities• Capacity requirements can only be met with increasingly fiber- rich access networks and small cell wireless access technologies• Fiber-based access networks are technology neutral  Fiber is a medium, not a technology  Technologies: Ethernet, PON, DOCSIS, wireless backhaul  Full technology independence can only be achieved with dedicated fibers per subscriber (point-to-point fiber topologies)© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 20
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