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Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Q4 2011
Mar 04, 2012
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Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Q4 2011
1. OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVELS FELL IN 60% OF GLOBAL MARKETS MEASUREDConsumer Confidence around the world increases one point to 89China confidence increases four points to 108Confidence declines in 24 of 27 European marketsMore than half (52%) describe finances as excellent/good, but 65%think it is not a good time to buyU.S. consumer confidence index increases 6 points to 83Global consumer confidence increased one index point last In the latest round of the survey, conducted between Novemberquarter to 89, while Europe led confidence declines in 24 of the 23 and December 9, 2011, overall confidence levels fell in 60region’s 27 measured markets, according to fourth quarter 2011 percent of global markets measured with confidence declinesglobal consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading in 35 out of 56 markets. Confidence rose in 12 markets andglobal provider of information and insights into what consumers remained flat in nine.watch and buy. The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and“While Europe’s challenging economic conditions in the second half Spending Intentions established in 2005, tracks consumerof 2011 bought renewed vulnerability and fragility to consumers confidence, major concerns and spending intentions amongand financial markets globally, some of the most positive news last more than 28,000 Internet consumers in 56 countries. Consumerquarter came from the world’s two largest economies—the U.S. confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicateand China—where confidence rebounded to Q1 2011 levels,” said degrees of optimism and pessimism.Dr. Venkatesh Bala, Chief Economist at The Cambridge Group, apart of Nielsen. “Buoyant domestic consumption also maintainedconfidence levels in the large emerging economies of India,Indonesia and Brazil. However, slowing GDP growth within emergingeconomies and inflationary pressures would suggest some degree ofcaution for the year ahead.”2 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Nielsen Global Consumer Conﬁdence Index—56 Countries, Q4 2011Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism Q4 2011 vs. Q3 2011 Increase -7 No change 113 0 +3 SAUDI ARABIA 112 117 BRAZIL Decrease INDONESIA +4 +5 108 117 CHINA PHILIPPINES 0 101 +6 MALAYSIA 0 103 105 AUSTRALIA UNITED ARAB +1 EMIRATES 122 INDIA -5 104 THAILAND TOP TIER COUNTRIES – 101 AND HIGHER +3 -5 -3 0 99 99 98 96 HONG KONG NORWAY VIETNAM CANADA MID TIER COUNTRIES – 100 TO 90 +5 -4 0 -7 -5 -8 -6 95 95 94 92 92 90 90 COLOMBIA PERU SINGAPORE SWITZERLAND EGYPT NEW ZEALAND AUSTRIA -2 72 -2 POLAND 76 FINLAND +1 89 LOW TIER COUNTRIES – 89 TO 30 -7 30 HUNGARY +3 GLOBAL 89 AVERAGE -4 -2 PAKISTAN 36 71 -9 0 PORTUGAL UNITED 77 87 0 KINGDOM GERMANY -10 BELGIUM 85 41 +2 CHILE GREECE -16 89 -1 71 DENMARK 87 -6 TAIWAN 0 43 78 -2 ARGENTINA -5 -1 CROATIA SOUTH 88 85 AFRICA 87 -3 -3 SWEDEN NETHERLANDS ISRAEL 46 70 +5 SOUTH UKRAINE 80 KOREA -5 -3 VENEZUELA 84 49 -2 -2 RUSSIA ITALY 69 81 -5 -1 +6 83 LITHUANIA MEXICO 55 83 TURKEY -1 UNITED STATES FRANCE 68 -1 LATVIA 55 -6 0 SPAIN 66 -12 +10 56 ESTONIA -4 65 59 JAPAN CZECH 60 IRELAND ROMANIA REPUBLICSource: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Conﬁdence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. 3
Personal finances are improved,but spending is still restrainedMore than half (52%) of global online consumers described their Consumer concern for the economy increased as a top fearpersonal finances for 2012 as excellent/good, up from 50 percent among 18 percent of global respondents—an increase of sixin Q3 2011, but 65 percent indicated it is not a good time to buy, points from last quarter, which resulted in nearly two-thirdsup one percent from the previous quarter. (64%) of consumers around the world indicating they believe they are in a recession, up from 62 percent last quarter. A“Overall, consumer discretionary spending will remain restrained growing number of online respondents in Asia Pacific (53%),and cautious in the first half of 2012,” said Dr. Bala. “Despite Europe (74%), Middle East/Africa (74%) and Latin America (47%)consumers becoming more confident about their personal indicated they believe they are in a recession. And while 86finances for the year ahead, there is still a reluctance to spend, percent of North Americans feel they are in a recession, it wasespecially in the West; rising tensions in the Middle East and the only region to report an improvement from 88 percent intheir impact on gasoline prices could further compound global third quarter.consumer concerns and spending plans,” added Dr. Bala. Personal ﬁnances are up, but good time to buy is down Personal ﬁnances good/excellent 52% 65% Not a good time to buy GROWING NUMBER OF CONSUMERS BELIEVE THEY ARE IN A RECESSION Asia Paciﬁc Q4 Europe Q4 Latin America Q4 53% 74% 47% Q3 Q3 Q3 50% 71% 46% Middle East/Africa Q4 North America Q4 74% 86% Q3 Q3 73% 88% Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Conﬁdence and Spending Intentions, Q4 20114 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Regional RoundupBoosted largely by an improved outlook in personal finances 30 index points, followed by Portugal (36) and Greece (41),for the year ahead, North America posted the biggest regional where quarterly confidence levels fell seven, four and 10 points,quarterly gain among global regions (+5 points) to 84, while respectively. European markets accounted for nine of the 10Asia Pacific (99) and Latin American (98) were the world’s most depressed markets last quarter.most confident regions with quarterly increases of two and The biggest quarterly confidence gains last quarter came fromone point(s), respectively. Confidence fell by one point in the Romania (+10), the United States and Australia (+6), Venezuela,Middle East/Africa (95), and Europe recorded its lowest regional Philippines and Columbia (+5) and China (+4), while the steepestconfidence reading since Q1 2009 at 71 points, a quarterly quarterly declines came from Taiwan (-16), Czech Republic (-12),decline of three points. Greece (-10) and Belgium (-9).India remained the world’s most optimistic market for the eighthconsecutive quarter with a one point consumer confidenceindex increase to 122, followed by Indonesia and the Philippinesat 117. Hungary was the world’s most pessimistic market at Asia Paciﬁc dominates the top 10 Consumer Conﬁdence Index scores, Europe leads the bottom 30 122 Highest Hungary IndiaLowest 36 Portugal Indonesia 117 41 Greece Philippines 117 43 Croatia Saudi Arabia 113 46 South Korea Brazil 112 49 Italy China 108 55 France UAE 105 55 Spain Thailand 104 56 Japan Australia 103 59 Romania Malaysia 101 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Conﬁdence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. 5
Consumer confidence rises in the U.S. and ChinaAmericans saw an improvement in their personal finances for the While a boost in U.S. consumer confidence is positive, theyear ahead with nearly half (49%) saying their personal financial index is still at the same level when the recession hit. “There isprospects looked good/excellent, up from 43 percent compared still a great deal of consumer angst regarding the health of ourto the previous quarter, which spurred a six-point consumer economy and health of consumer finances,” said Todd Hale, SVPconfidence index jump to 83 in Q4. Consumer & Shopper Insights, Nielsen U.S. “Across consumer packaged goods retailing, inflationary pressures, not increased“While there are headwinds impacting the consumer such as consumer demand, have had the biggest impact on departmentsweak housing, elevated commodity prices and uneven growth, and categories exhibiting dollar volume growth through the thirdrecent gains in the U.S. labor market are positively impacting quarter of 2011.”sentiment, although we are still well below pre-recession highs,”said James Russo, VP Global Consumer Insights. “Elevated levels “In China, the easing of food inflation over the past five monthsof long-term unemployment along with a stubbornly high has significantly driven food prices down and adjustmentspercentage of consumers reporting they have no spare cash to macro-economic policies have re-energized growth,(32%), raises a caution flag for 2012 spending. Additionally, over particularly through more loans, which partly resulted in thethe past year consumers have been drawing down savings to four point confidence climb to an index of 108,” said Yan Xuan,spend in the absence of real income and wage growth, a situation President, Nielsen Greater China. “Continued governmentwhich will have to change in order for them to boost or even and non-government investment in developing the country’ssustain their spending.” western and northeastern regions plus less dependence on manufacturing export in these regions is also fueling optimism among Chinese consumers.” Consumer conﬁdence rises in the U.S. and China China U.S. 110 +4 100 90 80 +6 70 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Conﬁdence and Spending Intentions, Q4 20116 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Jobs and finances remain fragile andvulnerable in Europe“Consumer confidence fell in 24 out of 27 European markets “Germany’s economic situation is stable on a relatively high level,”measured by Nielsen last quarter as the impact of the region’s said Ivar Michaelsen, Group Managing Director, Nielsen Germany.debt crisis, currency woes and Italy’s political and economic “German consumers feel concerned regarding the economicuncertainty sent shockwaves throughout the region and into situation in general because of the ongoing Euro crisis, but they dointernational financial markets,” said Dr. Bala. “With the Euro not expect direct effects on their personal situation for the moment.zone already slipping into recession and the introduction of new As a consequence, German consumers are at this stage relativelyor further austerity measures due to take effect in major European confident about their personal perspectives with regard to their jobs,economies at the start of this year, the region’s outlook for job personal finances and buying intentions for the year ahead.”prospects and personal finances remains fragile and vulnerable for Italy, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Portugal,the year ahead,” added Dr. Bala. Spain and Croatia all recorded a six-year confidence low last quarter.In Q4 2011, less than one in four (23%) Europeans rated job “In Hungary, a perfect storm of factors is contributing to low andprospects as good/excellent, down from 26 percent in Q3, and declining consumer confidence,” said Judit SzalokyToth, Managing28 percent from a year ago. And while job prospects are looking Director, Nielsen Hungary. “Rising taxes and unpredictablemore upbeat among Germans, where more than half (52%) rated government regulations coupled with declining disposable incomeemployment opportunities as good/excellent (up 11 percent has fueled insecurity and pessimism among consumers.”year-on-year), job prospects continue to be bleak for recession-hit In Spain, a favorable outlook for job prospects fell to 10 percentSouthern European markets of Italy, Greece and Spain. in Q4—down from 25 percent the prior year. In Italy, good/ excellent employment sentiment fell ten points year-on-year to eight percent last quarter. And in Greece, a positive job outlook declined to four percent from 11 percent last year. Consumer conﬁdence fell in 24 of 27 European markets measured 98 Increase 929089 88 8785 84 No change 83 77 76 Decrease 72 71 70 69 686665 60 59 55 55 49 4341 36 30 United Kingdom Czech Republic Netherlands Switzerland Germany Lithuania Denmark Romania Hungary Portugal Belgium Norway Sweden Ukraine Croatia Estonia Finland Austria Greece Ireland Poland Turkey France Russia Latvia Spain Italy Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Conﬁdence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. 7
Asia Pacific continues as the most Compared to the global average, Asia Paciﬁc consumersoptimistic region plan to save, invest and spend moreAsia Pacific continues as the most optimistic region,boasting seven of the top 10 highest index scores. How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expensesConfidence rose in nearly half (six of 14) of the Asia Pacific Asia Paciﬁc Global Averagemarkets in the Nielsen survey, fell in five and remained flatin three—Malaysia, Singapore and Japan. Taiwan’s decline of16 points to an index of 71, the lowest point in 24 monthsand approaching levels following the 2008 global financial Putting into 64% 48%crisis, was most notable. SavingsIndia’s one point consumer confidence index increaseto 122 is the highest score of 56 countries measured, Holidays/followed by Indonesia and the Philippines with an index 35% 28% Vacationsof 117. “The stabilization of India’s consumer confidencemetric is encouraging and the retention of the top spotglobally reminds us of the inherent strength of the Indianeconomy, the savings mindset of the Indian consumer, and New Clothes 36% 31%the positivity of consumer sentiment which has likely beenhelped by the recent cooling of inflationary pressure,” saidJustin Sargent, Managing Director, Nielsen India. Out-of-Home 35% 29% Entertainmen t“The sharp drop in Taiwanese consumer confidence is mainlydriven by a strong decline in job prospects and a rise inconcern for the current economic environment,” said Emilie Pay off Debts/ 26% 28%Darolles, Managing Director, Nielsen Taiwan. “In the short Credit Cards/ Loansterm, we expect consumers’ willingness to spend to slowdown and the propensity to save to increase. The upcomingChinese New Year Festival will likely help boost some of the New Technology 30% 22%domestic consumption in Q1, but Taiwanese consumers will Productscontinue to be conservative in 2012.” Home Improvement/ 19% 19% Decorating Investing in Stocks/ 33% 19% Mutual Funds I Have No 7% 16% Spare Cash Retirement Fund 13% 10% Don’t Know/ 2% 2% Undecided Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Conﬁdence and Spending Intentions, Q4 20118 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Latin America reports mixed results In Latin America, at-home entertainment takesIn Latin America, Brazil recorded the highest consumer preference over going outconfidence in the region with an index of 112—the fifthhighest score of 56 countries measured. Confidence rose five Money-saving tactics for groceries, telephone expensespoints in Colombia and Venezuela, fell in Peru (-4), Mexico and electricity will continue(-2), and Argentina (-1) and remained flat in Chile. LatinAmericans are the most confident in regards to personal Actions this Will continuefinances in 2012 with 66 percent describing their outlook as year next yeargood/excellent for the coming year. Use My Car“Brazil continues to experience gradual economic growth Less Often 21% 13%with a dip in unemployment, inflation control, an expansionof credit and political stability”, said Eduardo Ragasol, Cut Down on At-home 18% 5%Managing Director, Nielsen Brazil. “More Brazilians today Entertainmenthave the opportunity to buy products that were previouslyonly accessible to the higher social classes, which is Cut Down on Out-of-Home 50% 16%contributing to the optimism in the country.” Entertainment“Positive economic results are driving Colombia’s increased Cut Down on Take-Away Meals 33% 19%consumer confidence,” said Felipe Urdaneta, CountryManager, Nielsen Colombia. “Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth is up 7.7 percent in third quarter—the highest Cut Down on Smoking 13% 11%in last five years, unemployment is going down for the thirdconsecutive month and Nielsen fast-moving consumer Spend Less on 37% 15%goods unit sales increased five percent last quarter.” New Clothes Switch to Cheaper 39% 26% Grocery Brands Cut Down on 46% 32% Telephone Expenses Try to Save on Gas 45% 36% and Electricity Cut Down on 38% 15% Holidays/Short Breaks Cut Out Annual Vacation 25% 7% Cut Down/Buy Cheaper 24% 14% Brands of Alcohol Look for Better Deals 19% 13% on Loans, Credit Cards, etc Delay Replacement of Major Household Items 29% 9% Delay Upgrading Technology, 36% 12% e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc I Have Taken Other Actions Not Listed Above 6% 5% Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Conﬁdence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. 9
Job security is a top concern in Middle East / AfricaIn the six Middle East/African markets covered by the Nielsen “Egypt’s turbulent political year in 2011, led to rising food pricessurvey, confidence rose in Pakistan (+3), fell in Saudi Arabia (-7), and a slide in foreign reserves as tourism and export businessesEgypt (-5), Israel (-1), and remained flat in United Arab Emirates suffered from the dramatic current events,” said Ram Mohanand South Africa. The top concern for one in five consumers in Rao, Managing Director, Nielsen Egypt. “Hopes and fears amongthe Middle East/Africa is job security—five points higher than the Egyptians will prevail in 2012 as elections for a new civilianglobal average. Worries over political stability and the economy president will be in June 2012.”are two other top concerns among 12 percent of respondents each.“Political turmoil in the Middle East and doubts towards futureoil demand, which is indispensible for the Saudi economy, andsubsequent austerity measures has led to depressed consumersentiments in Saudi Arabia,” said Arslan Ashraf, Managing Director,Nielsen Saudi Arabia. “However, through hefty stimulus packages,the Saudi government is making efforts to insulate the economyfrom these global and regional developments.” Job security is a top concern among one in ﬁve consumers in the Middle East/Africa BIGGEST CONCERN 12% 12% THE ECONOMY POLITICAL STABILITY JOB SECURITY 20% 6% INCREASING FOOD PRICES CHILDRENS’ EDUCATION 6% AND/OR WELFARE PARENTS’ WELFARE 5% AND HAPPINESS 5% WORK/LIFE BALANCE 5% DEBT 4% TERRORISM 4% CRIME Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Conﬁdence and Spending Intentions, Q4 201110 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Country abbreviations:Argentina AR Israel IL Switzerland CHAustralia AU Italy IT Taiwan TWAustria AT Japan JP Thailand THBelgium BE Latvia LV Turkey TRBrazil BR Lithuania LT United Arab Emirates AECanada CA Malaysia MY Great Britain GBChina CN Mexico MX Ukraine UAChile CL Netherlands NL United States USColombia CO New Zealand NZ Venezuela VECroatia HR Norway NO Vietnam VNCzech Republic CZ Pakistan PKDenmark DK Peru PEEgypt EG Philippines PH Region abbreviations:Estonia EE Poland PL AP Asia PacificFinland FI Portugal PT EU EuropeFrance FR Romania RO LA Latin AmericaGermany DE Russia RU MEAP Middle East, Africa, Greece GR Saudi Arabia SA PakistanHong Kong HK Singapore SG NA North America Hungary HU South Africa SA India IN South Korea KOIndonesia ID Spain ESIreland IE Sweden SEAbout the Nielsen Global Survey About NielsenThe Nielsen Global Survey was conducted Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) isbetween November 23 and December 9, a global information and measurement2011 and polled more than 28,000 online company with leading market positionsconsumers in 56 countries throughout in marketing and consumer information,Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the television and other media measurement,Middle East, Africa and North America. online intelligence, mobile measurement,The sample has quotas based on age trade shows and related properties.and sex for each country based on their Nielsen has a presence in approximatelyInternet users, and is weighted to be 100 countries, with headquarters in Newrepresentative of Internet consumers York, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands.and has a maximum margin of error For more information, visitof ±0.6%. This Nielsen survey is based www.nielsen.com.on the behavior of respondents withonline access only. Internet penetrationrates vary by country. Nielsen uses aminimum reporting standard of 60percent Internet penetration or 10Monline population for survey inclusion. TheNielsen Global Survey, which includes theGlobal Consumer Confidence Index, wasestablished in 2005.For more information visit www.nielsen.com Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies.Company. Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen 11/3988 11
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