NextGen 2011 Chris Holden FTTH Concil
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NextGen 2011 Chris Holden FTTH Concil

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NextGen Conference Bristol 15 Nov 2011

NextGen Conference Bristol 15 Nov 2011

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  • 1. Fibre to the Home: Taking your life to new horizons! Chris Holden, President, FTTH Council Europe NextGen 11, Bristol, 15 November 2011
  • 2. FTTH     Council   Europe  Photo by Nicolo Baravalle
  • 3. FTTH  Market  Panorama  Photo by Nicolo Baravalle
  • 4. FTTH Global panorama mid-2011 – Total subscribers 5.6    M   9.5  M   4.6  M      0.3  M   46  M     … and FTTH continues to grow
  • 5. FTTH in Europe – Overall Figures mid-2011 •  EU35:  4.6  million  FTTH/B  subscribers   •  EU27:  4.1  million  FTTH/B  subscribers   •  CIS  (Russia,  Ukraine,  Belarus,  Kazakhstan):  5.6  million  FTTH/B   subscribers   •  EU35:  25.1  million  FTTH/B  Homes  Passed   •  EU27:  23.4  million  FTTH/B  HP   •  CIS  (Russia,  Ukraine,  Belarus,  Kazakhstan):  14.7  million  FTTH/B  HP     Average  Take  Rate  EU35:  18.3%  vs  19.4%  in  June  2010  Growth rates 1H2011EU35 Expanding FTTH/B+14% FTTH/B subscribers (vs 24% 1H2010) coverage is still a+26% FTTH/B Homes Passed (vs +12.5% 1H2010) priority for players Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe (1) Our figures have already been processed to avoid overestimating homes passed when one home is passed by several operators in some countries. Figures take this into account at June 2011 in particular for Slovenia, Russia and France.
  • 6. FTTH Global Ranking – mid-2011
  • 7. European  Ranking•  At  June  2011   20  countries  in  the  European  Ranking   Ukraine  and  Hungary  new  entrant  •  Three  Eastern  European  countries  showed  the  highest   progression  in  the  ranking  from  2%  to  4  %  :  Lithuania,  Bulgaria   and  Russia  Major  Western  Economies  such  as  Italy  and  France  sll  at  the   bo]om  of  the  Ranking   Others  like  Germany,  Spain  and  the  UK  are  absent   UK June 2011 = 4500 Subscribers and 567,300 HP out of 25M Households
  • 8. FTTH/B  leading  countries But number of subscribers less relevant than Take Rates (1) Europe at mid-2011: 18.3%From the highest… In Scandinavian countries : 62% in Norway, 39% in Sweden In Hungary (37%), Slovakia (32%) or Netherlands (32%) In the Baltics : 27% in Lithuania …to the lowest In France (10%), Switzerland (5%), UK (<1%) At June 2011: South Korea at 59%, Japan at 45% (1) Number of subscribers in total Homes Passed Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
  • 9. FTTH  Market  Forecasts  Photo by Nicolo Baravalle
  • 10. Europe in Context: the Race to Fibre Maturity (10%) After   Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 Japan Korea China Taiwan Australia India USA Canada Brazil Russia France Germany Italy UK Spain Sweden Netherlands Portugal Switzerland Denmark EUROPEAN UNION 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Heavy Reading for FTTH Council Europe, February 2011
  • 11. Europe by 2015l  Over 19m households connected to FTTH/B at end-2015 in EU countries covered by this forecast = about 10% of all homes in the regionl  Seven of the 21 nations still under 10% penetration at end-2015: Greece, UK, Poland, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Italy and Czech Repl  Unlike most other regions, incumbents are not currently the major providers of FTTH, and this will remain the casel  The most striking feature of the market through the next five years will be its fragmentation across every dimensionl  The UK will have the best superfast broadband network in Europe ???
  • 12. Summaryl  Over 19m households connected to FTTH/B at end-2015 in EU countries covered by this forecast = about 10% of all homes in the regionl  Seven of the 21 nations still under 10% penetration at end-2015: Greece, UK, Poland, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Italy and Czech Repl  Unlike most other regions, incumbents are not currently the major providers of FTTH, and this will remain the casel  The most striking feature of the market through the next five years will be its fragmentation across every dimensionl  Will the UK will have the best superfast broadband network in Europe?  European  Commission  Digital  Agenda:                                            50%   of  European  households  connected  to  100  Mbps  by   2020  
  • 13. The Challengel  Looking to the future – FTTH is the end gamel  To meet the targets set by the Commission 50% subscribers with >100Mbps service means maybe 80% capable Even then there is no upload requirement – essential for the Cloudl  Realistic National Plansl  Linked up government departmentsl  How to move incumbents towards FTTH Cu pricing + Incentives for FTTH and encourage close old infrastructurel  Connecting Europe Fund - €9.2bn €7bn for infrastructure leverage to ~€100bn with financial instrumentsl  Improve the Take Rate – show there is a business case Good old fashioned MARKETING
  • 14. Photo courtesy of ER-Telecom FTTH  Case  studies  
  • 15. FTTH  Case  studies   ATB-­‐NeZ   Ostrobothnia   Albox   MälarEnergi     ER-­‐Telecom   Stadsnät   LaZelecom   Waoo!   TEO   Amsterdam  Citynet   Pays  Chartrain   ARGE  Glasfaser    Photo courtesy of ER-Telecom Waldviertel   Pau  Pyrénées   Fastweb   Andorra  Telecom   Makedonski  Telekom   Portugal  Telecom  
  • 16. ANDORRA Andorra Telecom - Story Universal FTTH services for all citizensSuccess Story •  Andorra is Europe’s FTTH leader with a penetration of 40% of its inhabited households (vs. holiday homes), and 26% overall •  From traditional telecom operator to service-oriented provider •  Challenges: no economies of scale in small, mountainous country
  • 17. ANDORRA Andorra Telecom - Key factsDeployment (end-2010) •  Homes passed: 52,000 100% of households •  Subscribers: 14,700 •  Deployment 2008-2010 •  7 years to ROIEnd-user services •  Andorra Telecom is a telecom operator and TV broadcaster, fully integrated operator (builds, operates, provides services) •  Packages: Double and Triple play, multi-platform services (calls and yellow pages on TV, Internet TV)
  • 18. FTTH Conference 201214 – 16 February 2012, Munich, Germany www.ftthconference.eu
  • 19. Thank you for your attention! www.ftthcouncil.eu