Report for BIPTBIPT‟s NGN/NGA modelModel version v1.0 documentation for industry players23 December 2011Ref: 17915-516
2   Copyright © 2011. Analysys Mason Limited has produced the informationcontained herein for BIPT. The ownership, use and...
3Contents                     Introduction                    Model overview                    Market module             ...
Introduction                                                                                                              ...
5           Introduction         Model overview         Market module          Core modules         Access modulesAncillar...
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9           Introduction         Model overview         Market module           Overview           Market total        Mod...
Market module • Overview                                                                                                  ...
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12           Introduction         Model overview         Market module            Overview          Market total        Mo...
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24           Introduction         Model overview         Market module            Overview           Market total       Mo...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
Market module • Modelled operator                                                                                         ...
34                        Introduction                     Model overview                     Market module               ...
Core modules • Overview                                                                                                   ...
Core modules • Overview                                                                                                 36...
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Core modules • Overview                                                                                           39   Str...
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public
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Belgian Institute for Postal services and Telecommunications / Consultation document for the draft NGN/NGA models

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BIPT Model documentation 23 12 2011 public

  1. 1. Report for BIPTBIPT‟s NGN/NGA modelModel version v1.0 documentation for industry players23 December 2011Ref: 17915-516
  2. 2. 2 Copyright © 2011. Analysys Mason Limited has produced the informationcontained herein for BIPT. The ownership, use and disclosure of this information are subject to the Commercial Terms contained in the contract between Analysys Mason and BIPT 17915-516
  3. 3. 3Contents Introduction Model overview Market module Core modules Access modules Ancillary/common/overhead modules Service costing modules Glossary 17915-516
  4. 4. Introduction 4 Context and objectives  Analysys Mason Limited („Analysys Mason‟) has been commissioned to assist BIPT in developing and implementing a long-run incremental cost (LRIC) model for next-generation fixed networks in Belgium  The objectives of the project are to develop a bottom-up cost model of a next-generation core and access (fixed) network to calculate the unit costs of the services provided on the network. The results of the model will be used to:  develop business plans of generic Internet service providers (ISPs) to ensure the economic viability of wholesale tariffs  determine appropriate tariffs for regulated fixed wholesale services (BRUO, BRIO, BROBA, etc.)  This document is the technical model documentation accompanying the draft models and presents how the models work  It should be read in conjunction with:  the industry presentation „Draft NGN/NGA models‟ dated 13 December 2011 (ref. 17915-454), which describes notably modelling principles, next steps and issues for consultation  the model content list „Bottom-up fixed network cost model for BIPT: list of model components – public version‟, dated 13 December 2011 (ref. 17915-454)  the draft model consultation document, presented in English, French and Dutch versions, dated 13 December 2011 (ref: 17915-454) 17915-516
  5. 5. 5 Introduction Model overview Market module Core modules Access modulesAncillary/common/overhead modules Service costing modules Glossary 17915-516
  6. 6. Model overview 6 The model reflects an NGN/NGA operator with the same scale as Belgacom  The fixed long-run incremental cost (LRIC) model reflects  The model consists of four separate „online‟ network a next-generation network (NGN)/next-generation access modules, presented in the following Excel files: (NGA) operator with the same scale as Belgacom  Module 0 – Market.xls  The legacy voice, broadband and transmission platforms  Modules 1+2+3+4+6 – Core.xls are not modelled:  Modules 5+7 – Access.xls  the corresponding services are replaced by  Modules 20+21+22+23 – Service costing.xls NGN/NGA equivalents  In addition, these modules use a number of inputs from  In the NGN, voice is carried over Ethernet/IP, using „offline‟ modules, which cannot be shared publicly or with dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) the industry: transmission:  Modules starting with ‘Module 8 –’, dealing with  all services share the converged transmission colocation services.xls resources  Module 9 – SNA.xls  access gateways (AGW) provide time division  Module 9 – Updated OneTimeFees BIPT NGA.xls multiplexing (TDM) to voice over Internet protocol  Modules 15+16+17 HMC IT OH.xls (VoIP) conversion within the street cabinet or  geographical analysis files (lines, clusters) within the exchange  In the service costing module, two costing approaches have  Fibre to the cabinet (FTTC) deployments place active been implemented for network services: equipment (initially xDSL and later voice TDM-VoIP gateways) at the street cabinet  long-run average incremental cost (LRAIC+)  pure LRIC for voice termination 17915-516
  7. 7. Model overview 7 Instructions on how to install and run the model  In order to run the model:  ensure that all network-related Excel files (Module 0 – Market.xls, Modules 1+2+3+4+6 – Core.xls, Modules 5+7 – Access.xls and Modules 20+21+22+23 – Service costing.xls) are saved in the same directory to preserve the inter-workbook links  open all four workbooks (in no particular order) – when prompted to update the linked information, choose „No‟ – when asked whether or not to enable any macros, click the „Enable macros‟ box  check that all four workbooks are linked (using Edit  Links menu)  the model should be used in „manual‟ calculation mode  To run the model under the various costing approaches, the macro must be used:  click the „Run pure LRIC and LRAIC+‟ macro button to run the model  the results of the model calculations can be viewed on the „Services needed‟ worksheet of the Modules 20+21+22+23 - Service costing.xls workbook 17915-516
  8. 8. Model overview 8 All worksheets use a consistent cell format throughout all four workbooks  This is to increase the transparency of the model, as well as making it easier to understand and modify  A number of standardised cell formats are used to distinguish inputs, assumptions, calculations and links. The most important conventions are shown below Cell type Cell style Notes Input Parameter 100 An input to the model that it is expected the user will change (change at will) Input Data 100 A piece of real data (only change if you have better data) An estimate used in the absence of real data (only change if you have a better estimate, or Input Estimate 100 real data ) An input to the model that has, none the less, been calculated from other inputs (e.g. Input Calculation 100 interpolated input values) An input to this part of the model, which is linked to a source on this or another worksheet Input Link 100 within this workbook An input to this part of the model, which is linked to a source on a worksheet in a different Input Link (different Workbook) 100 workbook Calculation 100 A calculation of the model Total 123 A total (use if not part of a "Sub-total row" or a "Total row" in a table - see below) A side calculation intended solely to cross check a result (and which therefore should not be Checksum 0.00 referenced anywhere else in the model) A key result from this part of the model (in particular one that will be used elsewhere in the Output 100 model) An Excel Name applying to one or more adjacent cells (use Insert Name Create to actually Named range Name create the Excel Names) Note Note A note (NB smaller than standard font size) Anonymised Input 100 A rounded value used to protect the confidentiality of real data 17915-516
  9. 9. 9 Introduction Model overview Market module Overview Market total Modelled operator Core modules Access modulesAncillary/common/overhead modules Service costing modules Glossary 17915-516
  10. 10. Market module • Overview 10 The market module calculates market demand for both fixed and mobile services  In the Belgian market: Evolution of traffic origination 35  traffic on fixed networks is declining  traffic on mobile networks is increasing 30  dial-up has disappeared almost completely 25  Market demand for both fixed and mobile services is Minutes (billion) modelled based on data provided by BIPT‟s Market Statistics and (confidential) information provided by 20 operators in response to the data request: 15  the data supplied by the operators is used to check the validity of the public information and provide other „average‟ parameters 10  The number of fixed subscribers in the market is calculated using a projection of future population, 5 household and business penetration -  The number of mobile subscribers used in the NGN-NGA model is the same as in BIPT‟s latest mobile LRIC model  The forecast traffic demand is determined by a projection Mobile voice Fixed to fixed of total voice origination, based on a long-term growth Fixed to mobile Fixed to international driven by population growth assumptions Fixed to non-geographic Fixed dial-up Internet Source: BIPT model v1.0 17915-516
  11. 11. Market module • Overview 11 High-level flow of calculations in the market module Market total Modelled operator Total historical subscribers* Total Operator Historical Penetration Historical subscribers subscribers penetration forecast forecast forecast subscribers Historical Population/ population/ household/ household/ business businesses forecast Market share Historical traffic Traffic per per subscriber subscriber (DSL and forecast (DSL IPTV) and IPTV) Total voice Total traffic Operator traffic traffic forecast† forecast Historical traffic forecast Traffic Total historical Historical traffic breakdown voice traffic* breakdown forecast Colour key Input Calculations Output *Includes some data, at the total market level, from the mobile LRIC model †Total voice traffic means fixed and mobile, towards all recipients/destinations 17915-516
  12. 12. 12 Introduction Model overview Market module Overview Market total Modelled operator Core modules Access modulesAncillary/common/overhead modules Service costing modules Glossary 17915-516
  13. 13. Market module • Market total 13 The market module generates a series of forecasts at the market level Fixed connections Fixed service usage  Voice connections:  Voice traffic:  by residential and business  fixed-to-fixed (incoming/outgoing)  by technology (PSTN, cable, ISDN-2, ISDN-30  fixed-to-mobile/mobile-to-fixed and voice over broadband)  fixed-to-international/international-to-fixed  Broadband connections:  fixed-to-non-geographic numbers  by residential and business  dial-up  by technology (xDSL, fixed wireless access,  Business data connectivity throughput: cable and fibre)  leased lines – analogue, digital (by speed)  Business connectivity services:  data transmission services – Ethernet VPN  leased lines – analogue, digital (by speed)  data transmission services – Ethernet virtual private network (VPN)  Internet protocol television (IPTV) connections:  by type (linear broadcast, video on demand or VoD) 17915-516
  14. 14. Market module • Market total 14 Voice connections Voice connection forecasts Mobile voice connections  The number of mobile subscribers used in the NGN-NGA Residential fixed Mobile voice model is the same as in BIPT‟s latest mobile LRIC model voice connection connections (M-LRIC) Fixed voice connections – residential Household  The number of residential fixed voice connections is driven forecast by the number of households in Belgium Residential fixed Residential fixed Residential fixed Residential fixed  We have extrapolated the growth of household and fixed voice voice household penetration to forecast the number of voice connection voice penetration voice penetration connections by (historical) (historical) (forecast) technology residential fixed voice connections Residential  This market is further split in five different fixed voice fixed voice by Technology share Technology share technologies: PSTN, cable, ISDN-2, ISDN-30 and VoB. technology (historical) (forecast) The technology shares are extrapolated from the historical (historical) Total fixed voice connections by figures technology Business sites Fixed voice connections – business forecast  The number of business fixed voice connections is directly No. of fixed voice No. of fixed voice Business fixed Business fixed connections per connections per voice related to number of business sites in Belgium voice connection business site business site connections  Similar to its residential counterpart, the number of business (historical) (historical) (forecast) by technology fixed voice connections is forecast by extrapolating the Business growth of the number of business sites and fixed voice fixed voice by Technology share Technology share technology (historical) (forecast) business penetration (historical)  This market is also split into the five aforementioned fixed voice technologies Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  15. 15. Market module • Market total 15 Fixed broadband connections Fixed broadband connection forecasts Fixed broadband connections (residential)  The number of residential fixed broadband connections is Household driven by the number of households in Belgium forecast  We have extrapolated the growth of household and fixed Residential Residential Residential broadband household penetration to forecast the number Residential broadband broadband broadband broadband of residential fixed broadband connections connection penetration penetration connections (historical) (historical) (forecast) Fixed broadband connections (business)  The number of business fixed broadband connections is directly related to the number of business sites counts in Total broadband Technology share Technology share Total broadband Belgium connections by connections by technology (historical) (forecast) (historical) technology  Similar to its residential counterpart, the number of business fixed broadband connections is forecast by extrapolating the growth of the number of business sites and fixed broadband business penetration Business No. broadband No. broadband Business Fixed broadband connections (total) broadband connection per connections per broadband connection business site business site connections (historical) (historical) (forecast)  The total market is further split into four different fixed broadband technologies: xDSL, fixed wireless access, Business sites cable and fibre. The technology shares are extrapolated forecast from the historical figures Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  16. 16. Market module • Market total 16 Business connectivity services Business connectivity forecast  In addition to business broadband (already included in fixed broadband connections), the following business connectivity solutions are modelled:  leased-line services Business site Analogue LL growth rate Analogue LL – analogue LL: analogue leased lines – fibre (dark or wavelength) Fibre solutions – low cap LL: low-capacity digital leased lines Fibre growth rate Fibre ( 2Mbit/s) – high cap LL: high-capacity digital leased lines (>2Mbit/s) Low cap LL Low cap LL Digital legacy  data transmission services solutions High cap LL decline rate High cap LL – E/IP-VPN: Ethernet VPN and others (e.g. LAN-LAN) E/IP-VPN  In the long term, it is assumed that the digital legacy VPN solutions VPN solutions are migrated to E/IP-VPN solutions, which growth rate then grow in line with the business site growth rate  The number of fibre solutions (i.e. dark fibre or Historical Growth rates wavelengths) is conservatively assumed to remain flat Forecasts data forecasts over time Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  17. 17. Market module • Market total 17 IPTV and IPTV-based VoD Linear and VoD IPTV forecast  Combining household and pay-TV household penetration growth allows us to predict the future demand of pay TV Household in the Belgian market forecast  We have also calculated and extrapolated the technology share of the pay-TV market in Belgium, classified into Pay-TV connection Pay-TV penetration Pay-TV penetration four different categories: (historical) (historical) (forecast)  cable TV  satellite TV Pay-TV by Pay-TV Technology share Technology share  digital terrestrial television (DTT) technology connection by (historical) (forecast) (historical) technology  IPTV  Multiplying the total pay-TV market with the IPTV IPTV technology share gives the total IPTV forecast connections  Subsequently, the forecast for IPTV-based VoD connections can be obtained by assuming that an IPTV-based increasing proportion of broadcast IPTV customers will IPTV-based VoD take-up VoD connections also subscribe to IPTV-based VoD services assumptions Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  18. 18. Market module • Market total 18 IPTV and IPTV-based VoD throughput Linear and VoD IPTV throughput forecast  The throughput per IPTV link is calculated separately for the retail and wholesale IPTV flows based on: # retail IPTV Retail throughput channels required per link  the number and throughput per standard definition assumption (SD) channel Throughput  the number and throughput per high-definition required per IPTV channel assumption (HD) channel  the number and throughput per 3D channel # wholesale IPTV Wholesale channels throughput  The throughput for VoD is an assumption per VoD assumption required per link subscriber Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  19. 19. Market module • Market total 19 Voice traffic forecasts at a glance FTM as % FTN traffic Mobile voice FTM as % FTN traffic FTF terminated traffic Details on the flow of connection as % FTM traffic (forecast) as % of FTF (historical) total voice connection (forecast) originated traffic calculations are provided FTF&NG as % FTN Preference coefficient FTF&NG as % FTN FTF terminated traffic in the following four slides FTF traffic (forecast) traffic (historical) (historical + forecast) traffic (forecast) (forecast) FTNG as % FTF&NG FTNG as % FTF&NG FTNG traffic traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) (forecast) Fixed FTI as % fixed origination FTI as % fixed In the flow chart: originated traffic originated traffic FTI traffic (forecast) ITF traffic (forecast) (historical) (forecast)  FTI = fixed to international International traffic Fixed dial-up Internet Fixed dial-up Internet imbalance  FTN = fixed to national traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) assumptions  FTM = fixed to mobile Fixed originated Total voice originated Total voice originated Fixed originated MTF traffic (forecast) traffic (historical) traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) traffic (forecast)  FTF&NG = fixed to fixed and non- Fixed geographic numbers Mobile originated % being mobile % being mobile Mobile originated traffic (historical) originated (historical) originated (forecast) traffic (forecast) termination  FTF = fixed to fixed Mobile Mobile voice connection as % total  FTNG = fixed to non-geographic origination voice connection numbers MTM as % MTN Preference coefficient MTM as % MTN  MTI = mobile to international MTM traffic (forecast) traffic (historical) (historical + forecast) traffic (forecast)  MTN = mobile to national MTF as % MTN traffic MTF as % MTN traffic MTF traffic (forecast) (historical) (forecast)  MTM = mobile to mobile MTI as % mobile MTI as % mobile  MTF = mobile to fixed originated traffic originated traffic MTI traffic (forecast) (historical) (forecast)  ITF = international to fixed Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  20. 20. Market module • Market total 20 Firstly, the origination traffic is split into three broad categories  BIPT provides historical data for the Fixed origination fixed to non-geographic traffic (used to estimate historical dial-up Internet traffic), fixed- and mobile-originated traffic  We have extrapolated the sum of these traffic categories, as well as the share of mobile-originated traffic  Multiplying these gives the forecast of Fixed dial-up Internet Fixed dial-up Internet mobile-originated traffic traffic (historical) traffic (forecast)  We have projected the dial-up Internet Fixed originated Total voice originated Total voice originated Fixed originated traffic directly to reflect the diminishing traffic (historical) traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) traffic (forecast) use of this service Fixed Mobile originated % being mobile % being mobile Mobile originated  Fixed-originated traffic can be traffic (historical) originated (historical) originated (forecast) traffic (forecast) termination obtained by subtracting away the Mobile mobile-originated traffic from the total origination traffic (as the dial-up Internet traffic is assumed to go down to 0 from 2009) Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  21. 21. Market module • Market total 21 Next, the fixed-originated traffic is further split into smaller sub-categories Mobile voice  FTM, FTF&NG and FTI traffic shares FTM as % FTN traffic FTM as % FTN traffic connection as % total FTM traffic (forecast) (historical) voice connection (forecast) are forecast as percentages of the total fixed-originated traffic: FTF&NG as % FTN Preference coefficient FTF&NG as % FTN FTF traffic (forecast) traffic (historical) (historical + forecast) traffic (forecast)  the fixed-originated traffic is first split into FTI and FTN traffic FTNG as % FTF&NG FTNG as % FTF&NG FTNG traffic traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) (forecast)  FTN traffic is then further split Fixed FTI as % fixed origination FTI as % fixed into FTF&NG and FTM traffic originated traffic originated traffic FTI traffic (forecast) (historical) (forecast)  FTF&NG is then further split into FTF and FTNG Fixed dial-up Internet Fixed dial-up Internet traffic (historical) traffic (forecast)  The split between FTF and FTM traffic is directly related to the split between Fixed originated Total voice originated Total voice originated Fixed originated traffic (historical) traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) traffic (forecast) fixed and mobile connections Mobile originated % being mobile % being mobile Mobile originated Fixed  However, the correlation is not perfect – traffic (historical) originated (historical) originated (forecast) traffic (forecast) termination fixed users are more likely to call a fixed telephone than a mobile telephone. Mobile Hence, a „preference coefficient‟* is origination defined to capture this effect  Multiplying these traffic shares with the total fixed-originated traffic obtained earlier gives the FTM, FTF, FTNG and FTI traffic forecasts *The ‘preference coefficient’ for FTM calls is defined as the ratio of ‘FTM calls as a percentage of FTN calls’ to ‘mobile Colour key Input Calculations Output connections as a percentage of voice connections’ 17915-516
  22. 22. Market module • Market total 22 A similar sub-categorisation is performed on the mobile- originated traffic Fixed  MTM, MTF and MTI traffic shares are origination forecast as percentages of the total mobile-originated traffic:  the mobile-originated traffic is first split into MTI and MTN traffic  MTN traffic is then further split into MTF and MTM traffic  The split between MTF and MTM Fixed dial-up Internet Fixed dial-up Internet traffic is directly related to the split traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) between fixed and mobile connections Fixed originated Total voice originated Total voice originated Fixed originated traffic (historical) traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) traffic (forecast)  However, the correlation is not perfect – mobile users are more likely to call a Mobile originated % being mobile % being mobile Mobile originated Fixed mobile rather than a fixed telephone. traffic (historical) originated (historical) originated (forecast) traffic (forecast) termination Hence, a „preference coefficient‟ is Mobile Mobile voice defined to capture this effect connection as % total origination voice connection  Multiplying these traffic shares with the MTM as % FTN traffic Preference coefficient MTM as % MTN MTM traffic (forecast) total mobile-originated traffic obtained (historical) (historical + forecast) traffic (forecast) earlier gives the MTM, MTF and MTI MTF as % FTN traffic MTF as % MTN traffic traffic forecasts MTF traffic (forecast) (historical) (forecast) MTI as % mobile MTI as % mobile originated traffic originated traffic MTI traffic (forecast) (historical) (forecast) Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  23. 23. Market module • Market total 23 Finally, the relevant origination traffic is collected to forecast the fixed-terminated traffic FTF terminated traffic  Three types of traffic generate fixed Fixed as % of FTF origination termination: FTF, ITF and MTF originated traffic FTF terminated traffic  FTF-terminated traffic is forecast FTF traffic (forecast) (forecast) based on FTF-originated traffic and the share of FTF terminated as a proportion of FTF-originated traffic (excluding on-net traffic) FTI traffic (forecast) ITF traffic (forecast)  ITF and FTI traffic are correlated – people who frequently make Fixed dial-up Internet Fixed dial-up Internet International traffic international calls are also more imbalance traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) assumptions likely to receive calls from foreign destinations Fixed originated Total voice originated Total voice originated Fixed originated MTF traffic (forecast) traffic (historical) traffic (historical) traffic (forecast) traffic (forecast)  Hence, an „international traffic Mobile originated % being mobile % being mobile Mobile originated Fixed imbalance‟ factor, defined as the traffic (historical) originated (historical) originated (forecast) traffic (forecast) termination ratio of ITF-to-FTI traffic, is assumed to estimate ITF traffic from Mobile the FTI traffic determined earlier origination  MTF traffic is taken directly from previous mobile-originated forecasts MTF traffic (forecast) Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  24. 24. 24 Introduction Model overview Market module Overview Market total Modelled operator Core modules Access modulesAncillary/common/overhead modules Service costing modules Glossary 17915-516
  25. 25. Market module • Modelled operator 25 Volumes are forecast for the modelled operator based on the total market demand and forecast market shares Fixed connections Fixed service usage  Voice connections:  Voice traffic:  by residential and business  fixed-to-fixed (outgoing/incoming)  by technology (PSTN, cable, ISDN-2, ISDN-30  fixed-to-non-geographic numbers and VoB)  dial-up  by retail and wholesale  fixed-to-mobile/mobile-to-fixed  Broadband connections:  fixed-to-international/international-to-fixed  by retail and wholesale (resale, unbundling and  xDSL broadband services backhaul requirement bitstream)  Business data connectivity throughput:  Business connectivity services:  leased lines – analogue, digital (by speed)  leased lines – analogue, digital (by speed), fibre  data transmission services – Ethernet VPN  data transmission services – Ethernet VPN  IPTV services backhaul requirement:  IPTV connections:  by type (linear broadcast, VoD)  by type (linear broadcast, VoD)  by retail and wholesale 17915-516
  26. 26. Market module • Modelled operator 26 Market total fixed voice connections are split between the modelled operator and other operators Re-categorisation of fixed voice connections  The market total number of fixed voice connections needs to be split into connections provided by the modelled operator and Fixed voice Residential connections provided by other operators Modelled connections by operator (retail) technology access lines by  This is done based on the market share (by (historical + technology) of: technology forecast)  retail other operators within the total Market share of market Retail other retail other operators by operators access  self-supply other operators within the retail lines by technology technology other operators Modelled operator (wholesale)  These calculations give the number of retail and Market share of access lines self-supply other wholesale access lines for the modelled Self-supply other by technology operators within operators access operator, which added up yield the total number retail other Modelled lines by technology operator of access lines (by technology) for the modelled operators by technology residential operator access lines by technology Business Modelled Modelled operator operator voice Similar calculations business access connections by lines by technology technology Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  27. 27. Market module • Modelled operator 27 Market total fixed broadband connections are split between the modelled operator and other operators Re-categorisation of fixed broadband connections  As not all procurement types generate traffic in the modelled operator‟s core network, the market total xDSL broadband number of xDSL fixed broadband connections (all Modelled operator connections (retail) broadband assumed to be provided, directly or not, by the modelled (historic + forecast) connections operator) calculated earlier need to be rearranged by procurement type:  fixed broadband connections based on the Retail other Market share of operators modelled operator‟s access lines retail other broadband operators connections – retail xDSL Modelled operator broadband – resale connections by procurement type  fixed broadband connections based on unbundled Market share of Broadband each connections by access lines procurement procurement type type within retail for retail other – unbundling other operators operators  fixed broadband connections based on resold wholesale connections – bitstream Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  28. 28. Market module • Modelled operator 28 Market total business connectivity services are split between the modelled operator and other operators Business connectivity forecast  The following leased-line services are modelled:  analogue LL: analogue leased lines Modelled operator business connectivity  fibre (dark or wavelength) (historical)  low cap LL: low-capacity digital leased lines (2Mbit/s) Modelled operator Market total business Operator‟s market shares business connectivity  high cap LL: high-capacity digital leased lines connectivity (forecast) (historical and forecast) (forecast) (>2Mbit/s)  In addition, data transmission services are also forecast:  E/IP-VPN: Ethernet VPN and others (e.g. LAN-LAN)  The market share of each of these services is obtained by comparing the number of connections of the modelled operator with the market total number of connections  These market shares are extrapolated to obtain a long-term outlook of the modelled operator‟s business connectivity services  Multiplying the market total service connections with corresponding market shares leads to the modelled operator‟s connections forecast:  certain services are excluded from the core model, to simplify the modelling of multiple platforms Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  29. 29. Market module • Modelled operator 29 IPTV connections and IPTV-based VoD throughput are split between the modelled operator and other operators IPTV connections forecast  The number of retail and wholesale IPTV connections for the modelled operator is driven by: Modelled operator‟s Market total number IPTV retail and  the total IPTV market connections of IPTV connections wholesale connections  the share of each type of subscribers Modelled operator‟s  The throughput required for retail and wholesale VoD is retail vs. wholesale market share of IPTV driven by: connections  the number of retail and wholesale IPTV subscribers  the share of VoD users among IPTV subscribers  the throughput required per VoD user Modelled operator‟s Share of IPTV Total throughput VoD retail and subscribers who are required for retail wholesale also VoD users and wholesale VoD connections Throughput required per VoD subscriber assumption Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  30. 30. Market module • Modelled operator 30 Retail and wholesale origination voice traffic is derived from the number of retail and wholesale subscribers Retail and wholesale origination forecast  An operator‟s traffic market share correlates strongly with its subscriber market share Market total retail Modelled operator traffic by origination retail traffic by  However, subscribers‟ usage patterns differ by operator type (historical origination type and forecast) (forecast) and by call type. Hence, „usage coefficients‟ are introduced to ensure the traffic market shares can be Modelled operator Modelled operator predicted accurately from the subscribers market shares: retail traffic by retail traffic by origination type origination type as  an operator‟s usage coefficient of a particular retail (historical) % of total (historical) origination service is defined as the ratio of its Modelled operator market share for that particular service to its Modelled operator Retail usage retail traffic by market share of the retail fixed connections retail connections as coefficient (historical origination type as % % of total and forecast) of total (forecast)  We have derived and forecast the usage coefficients using the modelled operator‟s shares of traffic and connections  Multiplying these coefficients with the number of the Other operators retail Modelled operator operator‟s retail/wholesale fixed connections leads to the traffic by origination wholesale operator‟s retail/wholesale traffic forecast by origination type (historical origination traffic and forecast) (forecast) type Other operators self- Other operators self-supply supply vs wholesale vs wholesale modelled modelled operator operator traffic as % of connections as % of retail other operators by retail other operators origination type Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  31. 31. Market module • Modelled operator 31 Wholesale transit voice traffic is modelled as a share of all other traffic types Wholesale transit traffic forecast  Wholesale transit services are generated by other operators using the modelled operator‟s network. It can be modelled as a share of the market services that can Market total generate transit traffic. These relevant services are: traffic of the Share of the relevant Market total relevant services services which use transit transit traffic  fixed to fixed (ordinary numbers) (historical and (historical and forecast) (forecast) forecast)  fixed to non-geographic numbers Market total  dial-up Internet transit traffic (historical)  fixed to mobile  fixed to international Share of transit Modelled of the modelled Modelled  mobile to fixed operator transit operator operator transit traffic (historical) (historical and traffic (forecast)  international to fixed forecast)  mobile to mobile (off-net) Split between Modelled  mobile to international operator regional regional and national transit and national  international to mobile transit traffic traffic (historical and forecast) (historical and  An extrapolation of the split between the regional and forecast) national transit traffic leads to a forecast of these two types of transit traffic Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  32. 32. Market module • Modelled operator 32 Wholesale termination voice traffic is derived from the number of retail and wholesale subscribers Wholesale termination  A similar methodology as for origination has been applied to forecast the wholesale fixed-terminated traffic for the modelled operator: Market total Modelled operator Usage coefficient terminated traffic share of for termination  an operator‟s usage coefficient of termination is (historical and terminated traffic (historical and defined as the ratio of its market share for forecast) (historical) forecast) termination to its market share of fixed connections (wholesale + retail) Modelled operator  We have derived and forecast the usage coefficient using Modelled operator terminated traffic share of the modelled operator‟s shares of traffic and connections terminated traffic (historical) (forecast)  Multiplying this coefficient with the share of the operator‟s number of retail/wholesale fixed connections gives the Modelled operator operator‟s share of termination share of Modelled operator terminating lines terminated traffic  Multiplying the operator‟s share of termination by the total (retail and (forecast) wholesale) terminated traffic gives the operator‟s terminated traffic  The wholesale termination is further split into two categories: Split between Modelled operator  regional incoming traffic (wholesale) regional and regional and national national termination traffic terminated traffic  national incoming traffic (wholesale) (historical and (historical and forecast) forecast) Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  33. 33. Market module • Modelled operator 33 xDSL data backhaul is forecast based on historical trends Broadband data backhaul  The data backhaul per subscriber is forecast using an S-curve Data backhaul per subscriber Data backhaul by  The data backhaul per subscriber is then multiplied by the (historical and procurement type forecast) number of broadband connections to obtain the total data backhaul by procurement type: Broadband connections by  retail + resale and bitstream connections create a procurement type data backhaul need for the modelled operator  unbundling connections generate traffic carried by another operator and therefore do not create any data backhaul need for the modelled operator Colour key Input Calculations Output 17915-516
  34. 34. 34 Introduction Model overview Market module Core modules Overview Demand conversionNGN data connectivity NGN voice connectivity Ethernet/IP core Service platforms Access modules Ancillary/common/overhead modules Service costing modules Glossary 17915-516
  35. 35. Core modules • Overview 35 High-level flow of calculations in the core module Market module Service costing Demand module volumes Core module Unit costs Core network assumptions Core asset Core network Economic Network dimensioning expenditures depreciation costs Core network geodata Route sharing Routeing Service unit analysis factors costs „Active‟ „Offline‟ Colour key Input Output/result calculation calculation 17915-516
  36. 36. Core modules • Overview 36 The model assumes that an IP network is deployed to support all data traffic (xDSL, VPNs and IPTV) … High-level IP core network architecture diagram BRAS SB-REM Business SB-REM access SB-REM Aggregator SB-REM RADIUS Ethernet cluster SR IP-DSLAM DNS Ethernet switch Service LAN switches router Data connectivity Ethernet transport Service/control platforms  A mix of disaggregated/monolithic IP DSLAMs is deployed in the street cabinets (remote optical platform or ROP)/local exchanges (LEX)-local distribution cabinets (LDC), respectively:  the DSLAMs deployed use IP rather than ATM for backhaul, under modern equivalent asset (MEA) principles  Ethernet switches are deployed in the LEX and connect the DSLAMs to the core network 17915-516
  37. 37. Core modules • Overview 37 … and is upgraded to support NGN voice services High-level NGN core network architecture diagram CS AGW SBC AGW AGW Aggregator TGW AGW Ethernet SR LN-AGW cluster PR PoI Ethernet switch Service LAN switches router Data connectivity Ethernet transport Service/control platforms AGW Provides PSTN port interface – in the street cabinets (ROP) or in the LEX/LDC – and translates TDM-based voice into VoIP SBC Is used to police the IP connection between an external network and the call server controlled core voice network CS Handles the call control while the IP network handles the user traffic TGW Translates the TDM-based voice coming from TDM voice networks to IP for transit over the NGN core, used for SS7 interconnection PR Provides routing to/from another NGN voice core, used for SIP interconnection 17915-516
  38. 38. Core modules • Overview 38 There are three types of nodes in the core network  The local exchanges (LEX) are made of three types of nodes:  service nodes and central service nodes (SN/CSN) – two CSN in Brussels and eight SN in Gent, Antwerp, Liège and Charleroi (two in each location) are the main nodes in the modelled operator‟s core network. They are linked by two core express rings  aggregation nodes (AN) are points where the wavelengths of one or more clusters are aggregated before being sent to the SN/CSN. They are located on one of four core rings, ending at two SN – there are 32 aggregation nodes in the modelled operator‟s core network  local nodes (LN) are all other LEX – there are 552 local nodes in the modelled operator‟s core network 17915-516
  39. 39. Core modules • Overview 39 Street cabinets (SC)  Street cabinets are the aggregation points closest to the Map of SC geotypes customers. They define the boundary between the core and access networks  Street cabinets are divided in five geotypes, based on their size (number of active lines) and whether they were already upgraded to ROP in 2008 (year for which the latest BRUO/BROBA model could provide this distinction). The five geotypes are as follows: S0 (Not VDSL eligible yet in 2008) 0 S1 (< 80 active lines) 2,896 S2 (≤ 180 active lines) 12,771 S3 (> 180 active lines) 5,149 S0+ (S0 in 2008, migrated at a later date to VDSL) 7,543 Source: Analysys Mason geo-analysis based on BRUO/BROBA model 17915-516

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