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  • 1. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT ? Michael Peeters, Wireline CTO FTTH Council München, February 2012v1 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 2. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT BECAUSE WE CANNOT SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON The 3 things we expect will drive technology 1.Sharing the cost 2.Saturated bandwidth demand 3.Flexibility, but not at any costv COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 3. FLEXIBILITYIN COST ALLOCATION PTP PON• Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per • Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per dedicated Mb/s subscriber• Valid for smaller deployments with short • Favored for higher peak bandwidths loops • Valid for all deployments • Strongly preferred for large COs, longer loops Share WW Broadband Subscriber Additions  (DellOro) 100% 80% PON 60% Ethernet/Other 40% VDSL ADSL/SHDSL 20% Cable modem 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 4. BANDWIDTHIS NO LONGER THE CAPTAIN 2010 2015 2020 GPON has enough bandwidth for FTTH beyond 2020 GPON • Lower power dissipation • Symmetrical bandwidth • Resiliency at lower cost 10G PON • ONU evolution • Reduced opex TWDM PON-Drivers for 10G PON ready ONU•FTTB/DSLAM•FTTBusiness NGPON2 (40G PON)•More bandwidth at (Plan)same cost as GPON Drivers for NGPON2(not yet foreseeable) •More bandwidth for FTTB/DSLAM/Business •CO consolidation• Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for 10G PON are low volume Market needs are: • Bandwidth-independent• Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for NGPON2 are speculative • More customer-specific COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 5. NGPON2 TRADE-OFFS 40G TDM PON λ-stacked XG-PON One λ per subscriber “XLG-PON” “TWDM PON” WDM PON 40x1G down 40G down ONU 4x10G down ONU ONU ONU ONU ONU OLT OLT OLT ONU ONU ONU 10G up ONU 4x2.5G up ONU ONU No λ-agility req’d λ-agile, 4 λs 40x1G up λ-agile, 40 λsODN Non-compatible, less flexible. Backwards-compatible, power-splitting Loss ~insensitive to split ratio. Bandwidth More on-demand bandwidth Symmetrical bandwidth Higher risk in 2015 Lower risk in 2015 Higher risk in 2015Implementation Higher speed components • In the short run, higher speed components cost more, but reduce over time More components and higher complexity • Over time, cost will be determined by the no. of components and complexity COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 6. NGPON2 COST EVOLUTIONQUALITATIVE PICTURE If we needed NGPON2 today: •XLG-PON would be the most expensive: cost of 40G components and higher optical power •TWDM PON would the lowest cost: leverages existing XG-PON technology Cost cross-over between XLG- PON and TWDM-PON Cost per subscriber WDM PON TWDM‐PON XLG‐PON At some point in the future: Time •XLG-PON will be the least expensive: fewest components, lowest complexity Point for BW per Today lambda shift ? 6 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 7. TRANSITION SCENARIOTWO GENERATIONS IN ONE XG-PON 10G down ONU• Day 1: XG-PON with λ-agile ONUs: OLT ONU 2.5G up λ-agile, 4 λs• Future evolution to 40G PON 40G -TWDM-PON - Replace XG-PON OLT line card TWDM- 4x10G down ONU PON line card with 4-λ capability ONU - Existing ONUs tune to correct λ OLT ONU ONU 4x2.5G up λ-agile, 4 λs 7 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 8. THE FORK IN THE ROAD AND THE PATH FORWARD 40G/10G XLG‐PON TWDM PON WDM PON Drivers: Drivers: Drivers: Capacity •Ultimately the lowest cost, •Lowest risk for 2015 volume •Large scale FTTBusiness: ≥1 but highest risk for 2015 deployment Gb/s dedicated symmetrical volume deployment •Transition from existing XG- bandwidth (high peak •Highest OLT port density PON deployments bandwidths not important) •Legacy ODN compatibility •Legacy ODN compatibility •SuperPONs (ultra-long reach/ultra-high split) 10G/2.5G XG‐PON2.5G/1.25G GPON 8 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION