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LTE World Summit 2012 Wladimir bocquet--france-telecom thurs-masterclass_zone-1

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LTE World Summit Barcelona May 2012 …

LTE World Summit Barcelona May 2012
MASTERCLASS

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  • 1. Addressing Spectrum FragmentationChallenges for Spectrum Management Wladimir Bocquet Deputy Director Strategy and International Planning Group Spectrum Office, Orange wladimir.bocquet@orange.com LTE World Summit 2012 - Thursday 24th May
  • 2. What’s at Stake for Mobile Industry?  Data Explosion: Rapid changes in mobile service provision such as usage trends and number of important social and behavioural changes have led to previously unpredicted patterns of data consumption amongst mobile users.  Outcome of WRC-12: Recognition of the critical role that spectrum plays in enabling Mobile Broadband applications. Two agenda items for the next conference, scheduled at the end of 2015, will focus on identifying additional spectrum for mobile broadband.  Implementation of Mobile Broadband: The evolution of mobile broadband is increasing expectations for speed, bandwidth, and global access. Market moves on to LTE.2 Orange unrestricted
  • 3. General Issue  Spectrum is a scarce resource and public State property  Vital input to many industries  Radio waves do not stop at national borders – cross border issues have a significant role in spectrum management3 Orange unrestricted
  • 4. Agenda section 1 Entering in the Mobile Broadband Age section 2 Facilitating implementation of LTE section 3 What are the future bands for LTE?4 Orange unrestricted
  • 5. Global Forecast 2010-2020 The growing adoption of data services has become the major source of traffic in 2010Proposed methodology to forecast data traffic Total mobile traffic Forecasts (EB per year) Population 70 Voice 66 Data Mobile X X % of mobile base using service 2010-2020 CAGR 59 subscribers 60 = CAGR: Compound annual growth rate Mobile 51 Model is the same for # of mobile users using service penetration all services except 50 M2M, which begins at 43 this point with number X of M2M connections based on benchmarks Av. # of events per service user 40 39% 35 X 47% Includes all devices with an active mobile SIM 28 card, i.e. handsets and datacards (but 30 excludes M2M1) Av. MB used per event = 21Note: (1) M2M is defined as communication betweenunattended embedded devices 20(i.e. all non-handset and datacard traffic) Total mobile traffic of service 12 Model forecasts mobile traffic over the period 2009-2030, based on: 10 7 • Starting points (2009) for key inputs based on 3rd party benchmarks • End points (2020) based on 3rd party forecasts where available and New assumptions 4 2 • Growth trajectories from 2009-20 based on 3rd party forecast projections and analysis 0 5% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Calculation Benchmarked assumption Input Key output 5 Orange unrestricted
  • 6. New factors impacting traffic forecast Numbers and diversity of IMT devices Global Mobile Broadband connections 1 800 000 000Numerous specific devices with IMT capabilities TD-LTE 1 600 000 000 “Standard” 3G phones (pocket-sized feature phones LTE capable of web access and some multimedia 1 400 000 000 TD-SCDMA functions) WCDMA HSPA 1 200 000 000 WCDMA “Smartphones” for mobile multimedia experience 1 000 000 000 CDMA2000 family 800 000 000 “Tablet devices” (devices with larger form-factors, high resolution screens and optimised for a PC-like 600 000 000 experience) 400 000 000 Mobile Broadband modems/”dongles” to allow 200 000 000 mobile/nomadic laptop use, which is still a major 0 contributor to data Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Source: Wireless Intelligence  In general, mobile data usage is heavily device-dependent – Smartphones generate, on average, around 30 times the usage of a basic feature phone – Average modem/dongle use, with laptop users generating as much as 1300 times that of a “standard” 3G phone. Source: CISCO 6 Orange unrestricted
  • 7. New factors impacting traffic forecast Number of Mobile Service usersMobile Service Forecast in 2007 Orange forecast based on different sources in billion in million 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: IPTS Source: United Nations, WCIS, Value Partner Analysis Mobile world has reached another milestone with Internet becoming increasingly mobile. Ericsson, based on industry information, estimates that the number of mobile subscription has reached to 5 billion Source: Ericsson, July 2010 7 Orange unrestricted
  • 8. New factors impacting traffic forecast Average file sizes in some categoriesAverage traffic per event (kB):FT ITU 2010 forecast vs. current estimates ITU 2005: 2010 forecast  The forecasts in the ITU report Video significantly underestimated the Current estimate based on actual data download average file size in 2010 5 000 The ITU analysis appears to have  This is likely to be driven by: only accounted for WAP/ Music smartphone browsing and not the – better quality/ “richer” download accessing of websites on full-size content and services devices: e.g. a web-page such as 3 000 the Guardian homepage uses – improvements in data c.1000kB to load speeds and device resolution enabling the Full-size consumption of higher- web-page1 bitrate content 1 200 – increased mobile network 1,000+ Mobile usage on full-size devices web-page (e.g. PCs) via dongles and 100 100 internal datacards (this was not explicitly considered in Simple information and entertainment Rich multimedia information and the FT ITU forecasts) entertainment Note: (1) Estimate of data usage of a conventional web-page opened on a full-size device Source: “World mobile telecommunication market forecast” - ITU 2005, Informa, Value Partners analysis 8 Orange unrestricted
  • 9. Agenda section 1 Entering in the Mobile Broadband Age section 2 Facilitating implementation of LTE section 3 What are the future bands for LTE?9 Orange unrestricted
  • 10. Mobile Broadband Applications A global trend towards IMT systems, especially LTE Market moves on to LTE IMT – Provides a global ecosystem with inherent mobility IMT-2000 IMT-Advanced – Offers an evolution path not only for GSM/UMTS operators but also for CDMA Recommendation M.2012 Recommendation M.1457 operators – Dramatically improves speed and latency Source: ITU-R Orange is delivering mobile broadband thanks to the consistent utilisation of a single technology family: GSM, EDGE, W- CDMA, HSDPA/HSUPA to be followed by LTE and LTE-Advanced 3GPP technologies account for a majority of the installed mobile cellular systems globally Source: 3GPP 10 Orange unrestricted
  • 11. Harmonised approach is key for the development of Mobile Broadband ITU-R Region 1  Crucial to secure, in the ITU-R Region 1, the same allocation and band plan to support harmonisation  Harmonisation is key – Leverage from the existing deployment and maximise the economy of scale – Facilitate innovation and roaming – Reduce the device costs by – limiting the complexity of the radio design and the cost of mobile hardware – helping managing cross-border interference Maximising technology economies of scale through spectrum harmonisation and ensuring effective link between spectrum strategy & device availability is key11 Orange unrestricted
  • 12. Definition and protection of the property rights Exclusive usage rights & sharing Exclusive usage rights  individually licensed spectrum in harmonised bands is the preferred regime for mobile operations to assure quality of service  facilitates investment and promotes efficient use of the radio spectrum  In opposition License-exempt with White Space type application is a major risk to sterilise spectrum for other uses such as ensuring that future changes in spectrum use not precluded or/and Difficulty to step back.  Furthermore, license-exempt use is not an optimal use of spectrum for specific frequency range (e.g. below 1GHz) since license-exempt increases the need for regulation and technical specification such as power limit reduction. Spectrum & Infrastructure sharing  Regulatory framework should facilitate operator’s engagement in voluntary infrastructure and/or spectrum sharing.  Regulatory framework should remove restrictions on operators negotiating and concluding agreements governed by private law on sharing in bands dedicated to Mobile Broadband.12 Orange unrestricted
  • 13. Agenda section 1 Entering in the Mobile Broadband Age section 2 Facilitating implementation of LTE section 3 What are the future bands for LTE?13 Orange unrestricted
  • 14. Developing a long-term spectrum strategy is key 450 MHz 1 GHz 2 GHz 3 GHz Business Country objectives Region 1 options drivers Below 1 GHz Coverage  800MHz requires low frequency spectrum for  900MHz rural and in- Operators should building optimise their current Above 1GHz and future spectrum holdings to achieve Capacity  1800MHz goals depending on requires more their business total spectrum strategy.  2100 MHz Speed requires larger contiguous  2600 MHz spectrum blocks14 Orange unrestricted
  • 15. Additional IMT spectrum identified at the WRC-07 2.3 – 2.4 GHz band 450 MHz 1 GHz 2 GHz 3 GHz  Identified for IMT globally – Some deployments in Region 3 – In Europe currently used by other applications  Focus on TD-LTE in this specific band 2200 MHz 2290 2300 2400 MHz Space Research Deep space SAB/SAP ISM band Research Aeronautical telemetry e.g. WLAN, Bluetooth Mobile Applications15 Orange unrestricted
  • 16. IMT spectrum dedicated to LTE 800 MHz band  Support the following band plan with 5MHz block size for LTE technology  Favour contiguous 2x10 MHz per operator to fully leverage on LTE technology 30 MHz (6 blocks of 5 MHz) 30 MHz (6 blocks of 5 MHz) Guard Duplex FDD downlink FDD uplink band gap 790 791 821 832 862  Maximise the harmonisation across the ITU-R Region 1  Leverage on the economy of scale (facilitate the access)16  Facilitate the cross-border coordination Orange unrestricted
  • 17. Extension of the Digital Dividend Additional provision to Mobile Service after WRC-15CEPT and APT Band Plan CEPT 800 MHz DL UL 791 821 832 862 MHzAPT 700 MHz 718 748 773 803 MHz UL DL Duplexer 2 UL DL Duplexer 1 703 733 758 788 MHzPreferred Band Plan for the Extension of the Digital Dividend Adapted APT 700MHz Full CEPT 800 MHz Duplexer 1 services started in Europe UL DL DL UL 703 733 758 788 791 821 832 862 MHz CEPT plan should be preferred for entire Region 1, with possibility to use Region 3 Band plan – Maximise the economy of scale (leverage on existing ecosystem) 17 – Limit the modification on eachOrange unrestricted facilitate roaming as well as integration. band plan and – Appropriate Coexistence with current Region 1 FDD with same duplex direction
  • 18. IMT spectrum dedicated to LTE 2.6 GHz band  Fixed vs. flexible band plans – Adopting a fixed band plan is best and lead to global harmonization in the use of the band – Clear from both prior auctions and operator announcements that the ITU Option 1 band plan is preferred FDD uplink TDD FDD downlink2500 2570 2620 2690  In addition, – Emerging markets should preferably adopt global band plans – The adoption of ITU Option 1 for 2.6 GHz will yield large economies of scale in both network equipment and handsets 18 Orange unrestricted
  • 19. Conclusion Future LTE spectrum needs We encourage harmonisation of spectrum usage worldwide – to optimise economies of scale – to ensure timely availability of equipment – to respond quickly to market needs and bridge the Digital Divide Harmonised deployments of LTE in the spectrum identified for IMT will be facilitated by – technical studies at the ITU-R to ensure no interference – Adequate balance between Capacity and Coverage bands, with particular attention to the bands below 1GHz19 Orange unrestricted
  • 20. Orange, the Orange mark and any other Orange productor service names referred to in this material are trade marks wladimir.bocquet@orange.comof Orange Brand Services Limited.Orange restricted.

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