Kerem arsal

903 views
824 views

Published on

FTTH Conference Europe 2012
Munich, 14 Feb 2012

Published in: Travel, Business
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
903
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
6
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
14
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Kerem arsal

  1. 1. Middle East and Africa Market Panorama: FTTH/B Deployments Kerem Arsal Sr. Consultant, Pyramid Research The FTTH Council Europe February 2012 Property of TechWeb all rights reserved
  2. 2. Agenda Market Panorama Scope and Methodology Broadband Market Context and FTTH/B Network Deployment Trends FTTH/B Subscriber Adoption Trends Key Takeaways and Outlook 2
  3. 3. SCOPE AND METHODOLOGYPyramid Research tracked and analyzed historical and ongoing FTTH/B projectsacross sixteen countries in the Middle East and Africa combining primary andsecondary research Commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to prepare the Council’s Middle East and Africa Market Panorama market research study, which provides a comprehensive overview of the FTTH/B market environment, traction and network deployment activity in selected countries between 2007 and 2011 Selected 16 countries are: • Algeria • Iraq • Morocco • South Africa • Bahrain • Jordan • Oman • Syria • Egypt • Kuwait • Qatar • Tunisia • Iran • Lebanon • Saudi Arabia • UAE Methodology used:  secondary data and research,  desk-based phone interviews with FTTH/B network operators and service providers  benchmarking analysis and quantitative modeling for estimating those metrics for which actual data is unavailable  information exchange with FTTH Council members 3
  4. 4. BROADBAND MARKET CONTEXTGrowth prospects for FTTH/B look promising in the region, thanks to projectedeconomic growth, higher literacy rates, additional capacity and ongoing as well asplanned FTTH/B broadband initiatives Current broadband household penetration is BROADBAND PENETRATION OF HOUSEHOLDS, 2011 merely 10% in the MEA region 80% 69% 63% % of households 60% Significant investments are underway to 40% 28% 27% improve availability, quality and pricing 22% 20% 10% TechCentral i3 Africa in South Africa plans to make 0% Middle Asia Central Western Latin North FTTH/B available to 2.5m household by 2016, East and Pacific and Europe America America backed by National Empowerment Fund Africa Eastern Europe Lebanon’s Ministry of Telecommunications’ plans to BROADBAND ACCESS LINES IN MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA cover 75% of the population with FTTH 70 59.6m Etisalat’s network has passed 86% of the UAE’s 60 CAGR 2011-15 households Access lines (m) 50 37.5m Other, 22% 40 Qtel in Qatar plans to replace its copper-based 30 FTTH/B, 40% 16.9m network with FTTH by 2013. 20 Cable, 17% 10 xDSL, 8% The scope of Qatar National Broadband Network 0 involves fiber connections to 95% of the country’s 2007 2011 2015 households. Source: Pyramid Research Saudi Telecom Company’s FTTH subscriptions increased by about 300% within a few months 4
  5. 5. FTTH/B NETWORK DEPLOYMENT TRENDSThe Gulf countries boast the strongest momentum in FTTH/B network deploymentamong the 16 countries analyzed in the region, accounting for 92% of all homespassed with FTTH/B NUMBER OF HOMES PASSED BY FTTH/B, 2010-2011 (000) Country 2010 2011 Y-o-Y Growth The Gulf Countries: Bahrain 7.9 10.1 27% Kuwait 65.0 80.7 24% Oman 7.7 10.1 31% Qatar 13.3 77.7 486% Saudi Arabia 29.5 115.2 290% UAE 985.7 1,186.8 20% African Countries: Algeria 3.0 20.0 567% Egypt 55.3 57.3 4% Morocco 0.1 0.1 67% South Africa 19.5 23.8 22% Tunisia 3.2 5.0 56% The Levant Countries: Iran 0.0 0.0 0% Iraq 2.5 8.0 220% Jordan 2.0 2.6 32% Lebanon 4.7 5.0 6% Syria 0.8 1.2 50% Overall 1,200.2 1,603.7 34%Source: Pyramid Research, based on operator data 5
  6. 6. FTTH/B NETWORK DEPLOYMENT TRENDS Network deployment has been driven by different types of players in the Gulf region, from incumbents and mobile operators to utilities, governments and housing developers FTTH/B NETWORK OPERATORS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS THE GULF ILECs/CLECs Government Body Utilities Housing Developers Bahrain Batelco EWA AJM Koheeji and Sons Nuetel 2Connect Kuwait Ministry of Communications Oman Omantel Haya Water Nawras Qatar Qtel ictQatar Vodafone Qatar Saudi Arabia STC Saudi Electricity ITC Company Atheeb Tamasol Mobily UAE Etisalat DuSource: Pyramid Research 6
  7. 7. FTTH/B NETWORK DEPLOYMENT TRENDS ILECs and CLECs are the main FTTH/B players in the Levant and across Africa, with a number of housing developers making fiber available across high-end residential compounds FTTH/B NETWORK OPERATORS AND SERVICE PROVIDERS THE LEVANT ILECs/CLECs Housing Developers Iran Telecommunication Company of Tehran (TCT) Iraq Iraqi Telecommunications and Post Company SBJ (ITPC) ScopeSky Jordan Jordan Cable Service (JCS) Kulacom Jordan Telecom Lebanon OGERO Solidere Syria EMAAR AFRICA ILEC/CLEC Housing Developers Algeria Algerie Telecom Egypt Telecom Egypt PHD LINKOne TMG Morocco Wana South Africa Neotel Smart Village Atec Systems Digital Village Tunisia Tunisie TelecomSource: Pyramid Research 7
  8. 8. FTTH/B SUBSCRIBER ADOPTION TRENDS FTTH/B subscriber growth has been slow to date besides the UAE and Saudi Arabia; take rates, however, have been very strong due to the targeted deployment focused on high-end residential areas and businesses FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS AND Y-O-Y GROWTH FTTH/B TAKE RATE, 2011 Country FTTH/B Subscribers Year-over-Year (000) Subscriber Growth Iran 2010 2011 Algeria Algeria 0.2 0.6 200% Kuwait Bahrain 2.5 3.1 23% Iraq Egypt 3.3 4.9 48% Qatar Iran 0 0 0% Average take rate is Egypt Iraq 0.2 0.6 250% 33% across the Jordan 0.4 0.6 44% Lebanon sixteen countries Kuwait 4.6 5.4 16% Oman Lebanon 0.4 0.5 21% Tunisia Morocco 0.1 0.1 67% Jordan Oman 0.4 1.6 366% Saudi Arabia Qatar 4.9 6.1 25% Bahrain Saudi Arabia 5.8 35.4 510% Syria South Africa 13.9 18.0 30% UAE Syria 0.1 0.4 300% South Africa Tunisia 0.5 1.0 122% Morocco UAE 301.0 445.2 48% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of Homes Passed Overall* 338.3 523.6 55%Source: Pyramid Research 8
  9. 9. FTTH/B SUBSCRIBER ADOPTION TRENDS Traditional broadband players, ILECs and CLECs, drive nearly 96% of the FTTH/B subscriber adoption; housing developers have an important role in pioneering FTTH/B deployment, accounting for 20% of the subscribers in 2007 FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS BY PLAYER TYPE BY COUNTRY, 2011 FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS BY PLAYER TYPE, 2007-2011 ILECs and CLECs Utilities Housing Developers ACROSS THE SELECTED 16 COUNTRIES Syria LebanonSouth Africa Egypt Average Bahrain UAE TunisiaSaudi Arabia Qatar Oman Morocco Kuwait Jordan 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E Housing Developers 19.2% 10.1% 10.1% 5.0% 4.2% Iraq Utilities 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% Algeria ILECs and CLECs 80.8% 89.9% 89.9% 95.0% 95.7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Pyramid Research 9
  10. 10. FTTH/B SUBSCRIBER ADOPTION TRENDS FTTH subscribers comprise 96% of the total across the selected 16 countries; FTTB deployments are largely found across businesses and some housing developments  Going into each housing unit directly with fiber is a strong selling point while commercializing FTTH. This is a very common practice both in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, leaders in the region.  Between 2007 and 2011, as residential offers picked up, so did the share of FTTH vs. FTTB. FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS BY NETWORK TYPE, 2007 and 2011 ACROSS THE SELECTED 16 COUNTRIES FTTH FTTB 21% 4% 96% 79% 2007 2011Source: Pyramid Research 10
  11. 11. FTTH/B SUBSCRIBER ADOPTION TRENDS The Gulf region has predominantly PON-based deployments, driving up PON-based subscriptions in MEA, while Ethernet leads in the Levant FTTH/B NETWORKS BY TECHNOLOGY FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS BY TECHNOLOGY TYPE, 2007-2011 EGYPT OMAN ACROSS THE SELECTED 16 COUNTRIES (Telecom (Omantel) Egypt) UAE S.ARABIA (Etisalat) (STC) MOROCCO QATAR 97% 97% (QTel) 94% 93% (wana) LEBANON 77% BAHRAIN (Nuetel) (Solidere) ALGERIA SYRIA IRAQ IRAN (Algerie (EMAAR) (ITPC) (TCT) Telecom) TUNISIA (Tunisie Telecom) 23% JORDAN (JCS) 6% 7% 3% 3% 07 08 09 10 11 12+ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E PON Ethernet Commercial launch dateSource: Pyramid Research 11
  12. 12. FTTH/B SUBSCRIBER ADOPTION TRENDS Multiple dwelling units drive 69% of total FTTH/B subscribers; the share of single dwelling units is rising in correlation with growing FTTH/B coverage FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS BY PLAYER TYPE BY COUNTRY, 2011 FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS BY DWELLING TYPE, 2007-2011 MDUs SDUs ACROSS THE SELECTED 16 COUNTRIES Tunisia MDUs SDUs Qatar Morocco 80% Lebanon 74% Algeria 72% 68% 69% Jordan Syria UAE Oman AverageSouth Africa 32% 31% 28% Iraq 26% Bahrain 20%Saudi Arabia Egypt Kuwait 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E Source: Pyramid Research 12
  13. 13. KEY TAKEAWAYSSignificant progress has been made in FTTH/B network deployment and more ison the way thanks to the involvement of traditional players and governments justas well as alternative players such as housing developers FTTH/B commercial deployments in the MEA region intensified in the past two years (2009-2011). The number of homes passed with FTTH/B grew by 34% between 2010 and 2011 to reach 1.6m across the sixteen markets within the Panorama scope.  The Gulf countries boast the strongest momentum in FTTH/B network deployment.  Largely due to the political and regulatory issues, the Levant countries have seen the slowest progress on planned FTTH/B deployments to date.  In Africa, FTTH/B deployments are rather limited, mainly targeting businesses and high-end residential communities. ILECs and CLECs comprise the main group of players deploying FTTH/B, with a number of housing developers making fiber available across high-end residential compounds and business parks in Africa and the Levant countries. FTTH/B subscribers reached 523k in 2011, with a y-o-y growth rate of 55%. UAE accounted for 85% of all FTTH/B subscribers across the sixteen markets. Take rates have largely been strong due to the targeted deployment focused on high-end residential areas and businesses; over 75% in Morocco and South Africa and at 38% in the UAE. Ongoing initiatives by industry players coupled with government-led programs promise strong growth prospects for FTTH/B across the Middle East and Africa. 13
  14. 14. Thank you for your attention.If you have additional questions, please contact:Mustafa Kerem ArsalSr. ConsultantPyramid Researchkarsal@pyr.com

×