Graham finnie

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FTTH Conference 2012
Munich 16 Feb 2012, Day 2

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Graham finnie

  1. 1. European FTTH Forecast, 2011-2016 Graham Finnie, Chief Analyst Heavy ReadingPresentation to the FTTH Council Europe Conference, 16 February, 2012 www.heavyreading.com finnie@heavyreading.comj
  2. 2. Introduction• Fourth annual forecast for the FTTH Council• Based on individual analyses of 21 countries, and brief reviews of a further 17 countries• Covers a total of just over 300 million households, 197 million in the EU and 105 million outside the EU• Overall forecast down significantly on last year o Poor progress among many major telcos and municipal projects in western Europe o Many projects far behind previously published targets and plans o Economic deterioration, especially in the Euro area• Forecast in many Eastern countries largely unchanged o Strong progress in many large non-EU countries, especially Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, with good prospects ahead2
  3. 3. Positive Leading Indicators In 2011/2012 • Strong drive to FTTB in eastern Europe will continue • A lot more homes have been passed by fiber in some western European countries, suggesting that penetration could climb strongly with good marketing • Average broadband line speed continues to grow fast, priming the market for FTTH • Devices per home increasing; user-generated video and photography • Regulatory picture improving gradually3
  4. 4. Negative Leading Indicators In 2011/2012 • No really compelling application that requires a fiber connection • Slow year for new PC and TV sales • Painfully slow new customer acquisition in many countries • Verizon-style vision for fiber access still not motivating some major European incumbents– many are more committed to VDSL (and G.vector...?) • Muni movement making slower progress • Public sector debt and economic recession is an issue in some countries 4
  5. 5. The Incumbent FTTH Gap Selected Incumbent FTTH Adds (000s), 2011* 900 790 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 110 110 100 40 60 0 3 0 15 23 0 0 *Verizon 20105
  6. 6. European Region FTTH Forecast 35000 32088 30000 26030 Connected Households, 000s 25000 21175 20000 17045 15000 13575 10379 10000 7480 5369 5000 3430 1962 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Households connected directly to fiber and apartment connected via basement fiber termination (FTTB) 6
  7. 7. Top FTTH Countries In 2016*, By Number Of Connected Households Russia 10100 France 3530 Ukraine 2050 Germany 2000 Spain 1250 Sweden 1190Netherlands 1110 Italy 950 Portugal 880 Norway 620 Denmark 590 *Among the 21 Bulgaria 590 countries 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 analyzed in Connected Households, Dec 2016 detail 7
  8. 8. Top FTTH Countries In Europe, 2016*, By Household Penetration Lithuania 42.1% Norway 28.2% Sweden 26.6% Slovak… 26.3% Latvia 24.0% Denmark 23.1% Estonia 22.3% Slovenia 22.1% Portugal 21.5% Bulgaria 20.2% Russia 19.2%Netherlands 15.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Household penetration, Dec 2016 *Among the 21 countries analyzed in detail 8
  9. 9. FTTH Connections In Europe, 2016,By Type Of Builder 14% Note: ILEC = former 33% incumbent monopoly telco ILEC (PTT). CLEC = CLEC competitive or Muni/Utility alternative telco or broadband provider. 53% Muni/Utility = network built by municipal local authority or by a power utility 9
  10. 10. The Race To FTTH Maturity AfterCountry 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022Japan Note: chartKorea shows theChina year inTaiwan which eachAustralia territory isUSA expected on currentCanada trends andRussia plans toFrance achieveGermany “FTTHItaly maturity”,UK defined hereSpain as 20%Sweden householdNetherlands penetration of FTTH orPortugal FTTBSwitzerlandDenmarkEUROPEAN UNION After 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2022 10
  11. 11. Summary• Just over 32m households will be connected to FTTH or FTTB at the end of 2016 in the countries covered by this forecast– this is about 10.5% of all homes in the region• In the EU only, the total will be just over 17m, or 8.7% of all homes• Nine of the 21 nations individually analyzed should achieve “FTTH maturity” (20% penetration) by 2016– Lithuania, Norway, Sweden, Slovak Republic, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, Portugal and Bulgaria• Our forecast projects that seven of the 21 nations will still be under 10% penetration at the end of 2016–UK, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Spain and Austria• All players in certain Western European countries– incumbents, competitors, utilities— are far behind targets and plans• The gap between different countries in Europe, and between EU and other regions, is still widening11

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