FTTH Conference 2009 The Early North American Ftth Experience

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FTTH Conference 2009 The Early North American Ftth Experience

  1. 1. Fiber-to-the-Home Council North America The Early North American FTTH Experience Presented by: Michael C. Render
  2. 2. Vendor information Provider information and and interviews (nearly all) detailed interviews (over 1/3) Consumer input (initial 100K panel)
  3. 3. FTTH Status
  4. 4. Current Status Of U.S. Internet Use No Internet 22% Broadband Dial-up only 61% 17% RVALLC 2008
  5. 5. Current Status Of U.S. Internet Use FTTB FTTH 1.3% 3.2% No Internet 21.9% Other Broadband Dial-up only 56.1% 17.5% RVALLC 2008 RVALLC 2008
  6. 6. Growth Of FTTH
  7. 7. FTTH Homes Passed Cumulative – North America 16,000,000 13,825,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 11,763,000 10,000,000 9,552,300 8,000,000 8,003,000 6,000,000 6,099,000 4,089,000 4,000,000 2,696,846 2,000,000 1,619,500 72,100 180,300 970,000 19,400 0 RVALLC 2008 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 p- p- p- p- p- p- p- p- Se Se Se Se Se Se Se Se RVALLC 2007
  8. 8. FTTH Homes Connected Cumulative – North America 4,000,000 3,760,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,912,500 2,500,000 2,142,000 2,000,000 1,478,597 1,500,000 1,011,000 1,000,000 671,000 500,000 322,700 64,700 22,500 5,500 213,000 146,500 0 08 03 04 05 06 07 01 02 RVALLC 2008 p- p- p- p- p- p- p- p- Se Se Se Se Se Se Se Se RVALLC 2007
  9. 9. FTTH Penetration Cumulative – United States 14% 12% Passed 10% Connected 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 3 03 0 4 04 05 05 06 0 6 07 0 7 0 8 08 p- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep-RVALLC 2008 Se M S SM S S SM S S M M M M RVALLC 2007
  10. 10. Year-to-Year Growth In Homes Connected (12 month averages) 400% 350% Copper 300% Coax 250% Fiber 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Note: Years since start of installations RVALLC 2008
  11. 11. North American FTTH By Geography Canada Mexico/ 0.8% Caribbean 0.3% US 98.9% RVALLC 2008
  12. 12. The Provider View:
  13. 13. The Real U.S. FTTH Picture 3 RBOCs (mostly 2,698,000 Verizon) 627 Other providers* x 1,020,000 1627 average 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 * Includes CLECs that are divisions of ILECs RVALLC 2008
  14. 14. U.S. FTTH Providers Large ILEC 72.3% (RBOC) 14.4% Other ILEC 4.6% Competitive 4.1% Municipality 3.7% Developer 0.9% MSO/Cable TV 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
  15. 15. Verizon (9% of their 32 million customers connected with fiber) Drivers: - Need for new model - FTTH Council member - Visionary view - Outside plant setup - Regulation changes
  16. 16. Verizon Take-Rate For FTTH Cumulative – North America 50% 40% 30% 25.0% 23.0% 20% 19.0% 17.6% 14.6% 15.5% 10% 9.8% 8.3% 3.0% 0% 0 1 0 2 0 2 03 0 3 04 0 4 05 0 5 06 0 6 07 0 7 08 0 8 p- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- ar- ep- RVALLC 2008 Se M SM SM SM SM SM SM S RVALLC 2007
  17. 17. Small Rural Telephone Companies (7% of their 8 million customers connected with fiber) Drivers: - Aging copper lines - Television opportunity - Pioneering tradition - Subsidies
  18. 18. The Rest Of The US (Only 1% of the other 75 million US customers connected with fiber) Drivers: - Economic Development - Public good - Business opportunity 4.6% Competitive - Low cost in new homes 4.1% - Consumer pressure M unicipality 3.7% Developer 0.9% M SO/Cable TV 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
  19. 19. Overall Take-Rate for FTTH Non-RBOC Cumulative – North America By Year 60% 52.4% 51.8% 51.9% 50% 51.5% 51.0% 48.2% 47.4% 43.7% 40% 41.3% 35.9% 34.5% 31.2% 30% 29.0% 28.4% 20% 10% 0% Se 2 7 3 4 Se 5 6 8 M1 M2 M6 M3 M4 M5 M7 RVALLC 2008 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 p- p- p- p- p- p- p- ar ar ar ar ar ar ar Se Se Se Se Se RVALLC 2007
  20. 20. Percent of Homes-Connected By Architecture 75.5% BPON 13.8% GPON 7.1% P2P 3.7% GePON 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% RVALLC 2008 Note: Non RBOC P2P has increased in the past year
  21. 21. Percent of Homes-Connected By Architecture Non RBOC Providers 32.0% BPON 30.0% GPON 25.0% P2P 13.0% GePON 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% RVALLC 2008 Note: Non RBOC P2P has increased in the past year
  22. 22. The Consumer View:
  23. 23. Services Subscribed To Over FTTH (Not Including Internet) Local telephone 75% Television 70% Long distance 70% telephone 32% Video-on-demand 2% Home security 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% RVALLC 2008
  24. 24. Selected Advanced Customer Uses Of FTTH High definition television 43% 32% Video-on-demand services 26% Full length movie downloads 21% Online gaming Home business assisted by 7% FTTH* 3% Two-way video conferencing 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% RVALLC 2008 * Home businesses more efficient or only possible with FTTH
  25. 25. Examples Of Life-Changing FTTH Applications Simply Not Possible With Any Other Infrastructure • Teachers utilizing two-way video conferencing from home to teach Korean students English (in off hours) (Powell, Wyoming) • Scientist working as NASA consultant from rural location (Washington state) • Elementary student requiring isolation for a rare skin disease participating in local class work via two-way video. (Salem, IL)
  26. 26. FTTH Median Tested Download Internet Speed (Mbps) 12 34% Growth 8 7.0 5.2 4 0 6 7 8 9 -0 -0 -0 -0 ar ar ar ar M M M M RVALLC 2008 (3 times higher than all broadband per CWA) RVALLC 2007
  27. 27. FTTH Median Tested Upload Internet Speed (Mbps) 3 54% Growth 2 1.7 1.1 1 0 6 7 8 9 -0 -0 -0 -0 ar ar ar ar M M M M RVALLC 2008 (4 times higher than all broadband per CWA) RVALLC 2007
  28. 28. Average Number Of HD And DVR Devices In Home 1.24 2007 1.69 2008 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 RVALLC 2008
  29. 29. Peak Bandwidth Demand Per Average FTTH User Including Internet Download And IPTV HD Devices 100 Download Mbps 90 94.5 HD Devices Mbps 80 Total Mbps 70 69.6 60 63.6 50 51.3 46.6 40 37.8 34.2 30 30.9 27.8 25.1 20 23.0 20.5 15.1 18.4 17.1 13.5 10 9.9 12.7 9.4 7.0 5.2 0 08 09 10 11 12 13 07 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 RVALLC 2008
  30. 30. Percent Believing Future Non Entertainment FTTH Applications Are Important Among Those 55 And Over Online face-to-face visits with doctors 32% and nurses Switching between TV, Internet, and 29% phone with one device Viewing advanced websites with full 27% screen video pages Monitoring home or pets via video 23% while away Making two-way quot;video callsquot; (high 21% quality picture) Advanced online shopping (enhanced 20% viewing, etc.) Work from home with more 19% speed/video conferencing, etc. Advanced online college opportunities 17% (lecture on demand, etc.) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% RVALLC 2008
  31. 31. 2008 Research Continues To Show FTTH Users Work One Additional Day Per Month At Home Due To FTTH Days worked from home increased: - Nearly 9% work more from home directly because of FTTH – an average of 11 days more
  32. 32. Internet Customer Satisfaction Comparison With Other Services (Those somewhat or very satisfied) 86% FTTH 66% Cable Modem* 60% DSL* 30% Dial-up* 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% RVALLC 2008 * From 2006 data
  33. 33. Summary • Strong growth in 1/3 of U.S. • Multiple provider types and architectures • Drivers vary by provider type • Good consumer acceptance where available • Consumer advantages starting to show
  34. 34. Fiber-to-the-Home Council North America The Early North American FTTH Experience Presented by: Michael C. Render

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