FTTH/FTTB in Asia-Pacific

                        Presenter      Lynn Hutcheson

                        Email          l...
A Joint Project




2   © Copyright Ovum 2006
14 Asia Pacific Countries Studied




3   © Copyright Ovum 2006
Broadband subscriber forecast for Asia Pacific

                                                Cumulative Broadband Subsc...
Asia Pacific FTTH/FTTB Forecast


                                                    Asia Pacific FTTH/FTTB forecast

   ...
Asia Pacific compared to the rest of the world

                             FTTH/FTTB subscriber adds in 2008



        ...
South Korea



7   © Copyright Ovum 2006
South Korea Profile
      General Information - 2008

                Estimated population: 48.5 million
                 ...
FTTH outlook
      •         KT will invest W960 billion($1.02 US billion) in network
                infrastructure in 20...
FTTH outlook – cont.
       Aggressive deployment expected
                 KT plans to invest W 500 billion from 2008 to ...
South Korea FTTH/FTTB




11   © Copyright Ovum 2006
Japan




12   © Copyright Ovum 2006
Japan Profile
       General Information – 2008

                 Population – 127.9 million
                             ...
Current Outlook
                 NTT East/West dominate FTTH/B market with 73%

                 Other FTTH/B Service Prov...
Japan FTTH/FTTB


                                      18000
                                      16000
                ...
China



16   © Copyright Ovum 2006
China profile
     General Information - 2008
              Population: 1,318 million
                             Urban –...
2008 telecom industry shuffle
                ‘new’
                                                                      ...
Market update
                 Effect of international financial crisis
                             Prospects remain good...
China FTTH/FTTB


                                 60,000

                                 50,000
            Subscribers...
China Netcom CO is 2 floors below
       ground level




21   © Copyright Ovum 2006
Neighborhood




22   © Copyright Ovum 2006
ADSL equipment in CO




23   © Copyright Ovum 2006
OLT




24   © Copyright Ovum 2006
ONT in the basement




25   © Copyright Ovum 2006
Singapore



26   © Copyright Ovum 2006
Singapore Country Profile
          General Information – 2008

                    Estimated Population – 3.7 million
   ...
Intelligent Nation 2015
       History

                 June 2006 the IDA (Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore)
 ...
FTTx status - Intelligent Nation 2015
                 The IDA decided on a structurally separated model for the fixed
   ...
Singapore FTTH/FTTB


                                700
                                600
           Subscribers (000s...
Summary
                 Asia-Pacific continues to lead in FTTP deployments

                 South Korea is number one in...
Thank
                        Level 3You




                        www.ovum.com
© Copyright Ovum 2006
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FTTH Conference 2009 FTTH In Asia Pacific

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Transcript of "FTTH Conference 2009 FTTH In Asia Pacific"

  1. 1. FTTH/FTTB in Asia-Pacific Presenter Lynn Hutcheson Email lynn.hutcheson@ovum.com Direct line +1 814 689 3651 Date 11 February 2009 www.ovum.com © Copyright Ovum 2006
  2. 2. A Joint Project 2 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  3. 3. 14 Asia Pacific Countries Studied 3 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  4. 4. Broadband subscriber forecast for Asia Pacific Cumulative Broadband Subscriber forecast 350,000 Subscribers (000s) 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 95 939 2,008 3,202 4,715 6,437 7,794 Wireless 5,350 8,008 10,867 14,593 18,139 22,060 25,528 FTTH 10,619 14,494 17,191 27,934 39,356 53,530 72,351 FTTB 10,872 11,665 12,316 13,199 14,049 14,805 15,338 Cable modem 83,611 102,037 113,319 127,867 144,920 161,595 174,018 DSL 4 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  5. 5. Asia Pacific FTTH/FTTB Forecast Asia Pacific FTTH/FTTB forecast 80,000 70,000 Subscribers (000s) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 10,619 14,494 17,191 27,934 39,356 53,530 72,351 FTTB 5,350 8,008 10,867 14,593 18,139 22,060 25,528 FTTH 5 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  6. 6. Asia Pacific compared to the rest of the world FTTH/FTTB subscriber adds in 2008 EMEA, 3% North America, 17% Asia-Pacific, 80% 6 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  7. 7. South Korea 7 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  8. 8. South Korea Profile General Information - 2008 Estimated population: 48.5 million Urban – 84.2% Estimated Households – 16.2 million FTTP Household penetration – 44.2% Estimated Broadband Subscribers – 15.7 million 22% DSL 32.5% Cable Modem 45.5% FTTB/FTTH 0% Wireless. Broadband Household Penetration – 96.9% 8 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  9. 9. FTTH outlook • KT will invest W960 billion($1.02 US billion) in network infrastructure in 2008 W280 billion ($298 million) in access upgrade W680 billion ($723.4 million) in core network upgrade 1.8 million households upgraded in 2007 high speed FTTX - over 50Mbps via VDSL, Fiber LAN or FTTH 70% – 80% of upgrade will be FTTH with mostly GEPON and maybe some WDM-PON Hanaro appears to be interested in switching from GEPON to GPON 9 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  10. 10. FTTH outlook – cont. Aggressive deployment expected KT plans to invest W 500 billion from 2008 to 2015 for providing 100% nationwide coverage of FTTH. It plans to provide 92% of national coverage by 2010 and 100% coverage by 2015. KT’s investment plan in FTTH for the next several years 2009 2010 2011 2012 Investment in billion Won 60 70 65 62 10 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  11. 11. South Korea FTTH/FTTB 11 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  12. 12. Japan 12 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  13. 13. Japan Profile General Information – 2008 Population – 127.9 million Urban – 79.3% Households – 49.3 million FTTP Household penetration – 26.8% Broadband Subscribers – 33.4 million 48.3% DSL 12.2% Cable 39.5% FTTH/FTTB 0% Wireless Broadband Household Penetration – 67.7% 13 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  14. 14. Current Outlook NTT East/West dominate FTTH/B market with 73% Other FTTH/B Service Providers include power companies (K- Opticom, etc.), KDDI and USEN. Some local and small SPs expanding FTTx offering in their service areas either with their own networks or leasing from NTT East/West. NTT downgraded “FTTH” target to 20 million (from 30 million) by fiscal 2010. OLT shipment shifting from deploying chassis to adding interface cards Second half of 2008 down about 20% from first half 14 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  15. 15. Japan FTTH/FTTB 18000 16000 14000 Subscribers (000s) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3395 4523 4976 5486 6243 7054 7987 FTTB 4605 6601 8225 10363 12495 14855 16543 FTTH 15 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  16. 16. China 16 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  17. 17. China profile General Information - 2008 Population: 1,318 million Urban – 45.7% Households – 426.2 million FTTP Household Penetration – 1.4% Broadband Subscribers – 78.7 million 91.7 % DSL 0.4% Cable 7.6% FTTH/FTTB 0.3% Wireless Broadband Household Penetration – 18.5% 17 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  18. 18. 2008 telecom industry shuffle ‘new’ CDMA network + China Telecom ‘new’ + China Mobile ‘new’ GSM network + China Unicom Revenue share before and after restructuring (Source: MIIT data) 'new' China Unicom China Mobile 15% China Tietong China Telecom 'new' China Mobile Unicom-CDMA 49% Unicom-GSM 'new' China Telecom China Netcom 36% 18 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  19. 19. Market update Effect of international financial crisis Prospects remain good; network investment plans set up pre- downturn so far unchanged. Government fiscal stimulus and attempts to promote domestic consumption are also positive factors. Commercial operation of new generation optical communication technology such as xPON, 40G, PTN will help operators to enhance ARPU, therefore investment in them will continue. China FTTx Industry Alliance Formed in Oct, the alliance has over 30 members, including the three Chinese telecom carriers, major telecom equipment vendors, optical electronics vendors, key research labs and top universities. It operates under the China Communications Standards Association and aims to accelerate FTTx growth by building a sound industry chain. Its office is in Hubei Wuhan, the Optics Valley of China. 19 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  20. 20. China FTTH/FTTB 60,000 50,000 Subscribers (000s) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 3,633 4,328 5,355 14,281 23,765 35,567 49,267 FTTB 312 455 601 760 933 1,123 1,345 FTTH 20 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  21. 21. China Netcom CO is 2 floors below ground level 21 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  22. 22. Neighborhood 22 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  23. 23. ADSL equipment in CO 23 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  24. 24. OLT 24 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  25. 25. ONT in the basement 25 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  26. 26. Singapore 26 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  27. 27. Singapore Country Profile General Information – 2008 Estimated Population – 3.7 million Urban – 100% Estimated Households – 1.16 million FTTP Household Penetration – 1.8% Estimated Broadband Subscribers – 1.1 million 45.9% DSL 37.8% Cable Modem 1.9% FTTB/FTTH 14.5% Wireless Broadband Household Penetration – 94.8% 27 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  28. 28. Intelligent Nation 2015 History June 2006 the IDA (Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore) decided to create a national high speed fixed and wireless broadband network called iN2015 Wired network is to deliver ultra-high broadband speeds to all homes, offices and schools Wireless network that will provide wireless connectivity through out Singapore Short term goal is to provide 100 Mbps to every home, office and school Long term goal is to provide 1Gbps to every home, office and school 2010 – goal is to have 50% of all homes connected with FTTH 2015 – goal is connect 90% of all homes 28 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  29. 29. FTTx status - Intelligent Nation 2015 The IDA decided on a structurally separated model for the fixed network, and tendered funding for the passive (NetCo) and active (OpCo) infrastructure separately. The OpenNet consortium led by SingTel defeated a consortium led by StarHub in September 2008 for the passive optical infrastructure (the NetCo). This tender was worth S$750 million. A shortlist of four bidders for the active switching infrastructure (the “OpCo”) was announced in December 2008. A final decision is due in 1Q2009. This tender is worth S$250 million. Non-selected OpCos will still be allowed to connect the optical network, but will receive no funding and have no universal service obligations. 29 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  30. 30. Singapore FTTH/FTTB 700 600 Subscribers (000s) 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 1 3 12 34 49 64 FTTB 6 10 18 108 281 441 650 FTTH 30 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  31. 31. Summary Asia-Pacific continues to lead in FTTP deployments South Korea is number one in the world in household penetration with FTTH/FTTB South Korea is shifting its infrastructure investment from FTTB to FTTH Japan is number one in the world in total number of FTTH/FTTB subscribers Japan’s growth rate in the last half of 2008 declined about 20% China is ramping up its FTTB deployments Singapore is on track to start rolling out its iN2015 FTTH Broadband Network in the 2nd half of 2009 31 © Copyright Ovum 2006
  32. 32. Thank Level 3You www.ovum.com © Copyright Ovum 2006

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