Closing session day 2 the ftth market in europe in 2015 graham finnie

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FTTH Conference Milan 2011 Day 2

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Closing session day 2 the ftth market in europe in 2015 graham finnie

  1. 1. European FTTH Forecast, 2010-2015 Graham Finnie Chief Analyst Heavy Reading www.heavyreading.com finnie@heavyreading.com 10 February, 2010 FTTH Council Conference, Milan 1
  2. 2. Introduction Third annual forecast for the FTTH Council Based on individual analyses of 21 countries, and brief reviews of a further 17 countries Covers a total of just over 290 million households, 195 million in the EU and 95 million outside the EU Overall forecast down slightly on last year – Leading indicators generally a bit more positive than last year Forecast for EU downgraded moderately – Generally very slow progress in Western Europe – Incumbents, CLECs and muni builders all missing targets Forecast outside EU upgraded – Strong progress in Russia, Turkey 2
  3. 3. Positive Leading Indicators In 2010/2011 Strong trend to higher-speed non-fiber products– ADSL2+ is now the de facto standard, VDSL widely available and DOCSIS 3 very widely deployed– all feeding customer appetite for multimegabit services Sales of high-spec consumer electronics products (e.g. flat screen HDTVs, media-intensive PCs) recovered in 2010, 3DTV beginning to make an impact Strong drive to FTTB in eastern Europe will continue Continuing new commitments to FTTH among municipalities in France, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland A lot more homes passed by fiber, suggesting that penetration could climb strongly with good marketing Regulatory picture became a good deal clearer, at least on the principles 3
  4. 4. Negative Leading Indicators In 2010/2011 No really compelling application that requires a fiber connection Painfully slow new customer acquisition in many countries Verizon-style vision for fiber access still not there among major European incumbents– many are more committed to VDSL to counter the cable threat Muni movement making slow progress Regulation still a barrier at both macro and micro level Public sector debt is an issue in some countries 4
  5. 5. European Region FTTH Forecast 35000 32604 30000 Connected Households, 000s 25665 25000 19430 20000 14476 15000 11065 10000 8265 5519 5000 3509 1892 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Note: Households connected directly to fiber and apartment connected via basement fibertermination (FTTB) 5
  6. 6. Top FTTH Countries In 2015*, By Number Of Connected Households Russia 9100 France 3850 Germany 3100 Italy 1800 Sweden 1470 Netherlands 1320 Spain 950 Portugal 900 UK 800 Denmark 710 Norway 620 Bulgaria 510 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Connected Households, Dec 2015 6*Among the 21 countries analyzed in detail
  7. 7. Top FTTH Countries In Europe, 2015*, By Household Penetration Slovenia 35.8% Sweden 33.0% Norway 29.5% Denmark 28.4% Portugal 25.7% Slovak 23.7% Republic Finland 20.1% Netherlands 18.7% Bulgaria 17.5% Russia 17.3% France 17.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Household penetration, Dec 2015 7*Among the 21 countries analyzed in detail
  8. 8. FTTH Connections In Europe, 2015, By Type Of Builder 19% 26% ILEC CLEC Muni/Utility 55%Note: ILEC = former incumbent monopoly telco (PTT). CLEC = competitive or alternative telco orbroadband provider. Muni/Utility = network built by municipal local authority or by a power utility 8
  9. 9. The Race To Fiber Maturity AfterCountry 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020JapanKoreaChinaTaiwanAustraliaIndiaUSACanadaBrazilRussiaFranceGermanyItalyUKSpainSwedenNetherlandsPortugalSwitzerlandDenmarkEUROPEAN UNION 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Note: chart shows the year in which each territory is expected on current trends and plans to 9achieve “fiber maturity”, defined here as 20% household penetration of FTTH or FTTB
  10. 10. Summary Just over 32m households will be connected to FTTH or FTTB at the end of 2015 in the countries covered by this forecast– this is about 11% of all homes in the region In the EU only, the total will touch 19m, or 10% of all homes Seven of the 21 nations individually analyzed should achieve “fiber maturity” (20% penetration) by 2015– Slovenia, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Portugal and Slovakia. Five more should reach this figure by 2016 Our forecast projects that seven of the 21 nations will still be under 10% penetration at the end of 2015– Greece, UK, Poland, Belgium, Spain, Germany, Italy and Czech Rep Unlike most other regions, incumbents are not currently the major providers of FTTH, and this will remain the case The most striking feature of the market through the next five years will be its fragmentation across every dimension 10

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