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FTTHForum 2011 IDATE Roland Montagne

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FTTHForum 2011 IDATE Roland Montagne FTTHForum 2011 IDATE Roland Montagne Presentation Transcript

  • FTTx Markets: Global perspectiveEastern Europe driversBudapest, 9th November 2011FTTH Forum 2011 Roland MONTAGNE Director Telecoms Business Unit r.montagne@idate.org +33 6 80 85 04 80 1
  • Agenda► FTTH Worldwide Status & Strategy - Global Figures - Leaders: Japan, US - Australia NBN► European detailed situation: Eastern Europe focus► Global Drivers for FTTH► FTTH/B Forecasts up to 2015: Eastern Europe will lead in EU 2
  • FTTx Worldwide Status & Strategies: Figures 3
  • FTTH/B Global Picture: APAC Strong leadership FTTH/B subs worldwide from June 2010 … 6.7 M FTTx means FTTH/FTTB, FTTN+VDSL, 6M FTTLA, FTTx+LAN 0.25 M 30.7 M Global FTTx market: 112 M subscribers at June 2011, 61% being FTTH/B Asia is still the leading market … to June 2011 (73% of worldwide FTTH/B subscribers at June 2011) Europe, including Russia, is progressing, in particular thanks 10.2 M to Eastern countries (~ 15% of 7.3 M worldwide FTTH/B subscribers 49.5 M at June 2011) 0.4 M USA: a little slow down in deployment from telcos in 1H11, <0.3 M but acceleration from local authorities due to the Stimulus BB program awards LATAM and Middle East potential Source: IDATE 4
  • FTTH/B Global Picture: APAC Strong leadership Top 10 FTTx players worldwide at end 2010 Rank Player Country Technology & architecture FTTx subscribers 1 China Telecom (*) China FTTH & FTTx/LAN EPON LAN/DSL 20 000 000 2 China Unicom (**) China FTTH/B GEPON/EPON & FTTx/LAN 15 000 000 3 NTT Japan FTTH/B GEPON 14 724 000 4 KT South Korea FTTB EPON/GEPON 5 016 709 5 Verizon USA FTTH BPON/GPON 4 082 000 6 AT&T USA FTTN/VDSL2 2 751 000 7 ER Telecom Russia FTTB 2 716 000 8 SK Broadband South Korea FTTB/LAN GEPON 2 136 208 9 Chunghwa Telecom Taiwan FTTB GEPON 2 044 683 10 KDDI Japan FTTH/B EPON/GEPON 1 833 000 •(*) Among which 7 million FTTH/B subscribers and 13 million FTTx/LAN subscribers Source: IDATE •(**) Among which 5.5 million FTTB subscribers and 9.5 million FTTx/LAN subscribers •7 Asian telcos among the 10 leading players worldwide •2 Chinese operators leading the ranking! •1 Operator from Russia 5
  • FTTH/B worldwide Status & Strategy: leaders 6
  • Japan 7
  • FTTH: Worldwide Status & Strategies: leadersJapan: the FTTH leader  More new FTTH/B subscribers than new DSL subscribers since April 2005  Nearly 20.8 Million FTTH/B subscribers at June 2011 and 46 Million Homes Passed... 1 million new FTTH subscribers last 6 months …. Nearly 40% are FTTB subs  At June 2011, FTTH/B subscribers represent 60% of total Broadband subscribers and more than 90% of the population is already covered!  Attractive prices, closing the gap with ADSL tariffs… aerial deployments  Government’s proactive approach to FTTH deployments: 30 million FTTH subscribers in 2010 as a ambitious initial objective…objective revised in November 2007 at 20 Million FTTH subscribers in 2010…has been reached!  But not specific services…. ….with a few IPTV subscribers in Japan (probably around than 1.5 million) 8
  • NTTStrong domination on FTTH/B Indeed, retail price for SDU was 5 460 Yens, was only around 10% more expensive than wholesale offer. But MIC has forced NTT to open up it’s FTTH network at advantage prices for competitors: since June 2008, NTT East for example decreased his wholesale price of 14%. NTT market shares on FTTH (combining both NTT East and NTT West) nearly reaches 75% at end 2010 Others Power USEN 5% Companies 3% 9% NTT mainly targets SDUs: KDDI 61% vs 39% MDUs at end 9% 2010 NTT 74% Source : IDATE, according to MIC 9
  • USA 10
  • FTTH: Worldwide Status & Strategies: leadersUSA: FTTH is the unique solution for RBOC’s  Power of Cable operators: Time Warner, Comcast, launching 30 or 50 Mbps offers  CableVision proposing a 101 Mbps offer … more than twice what Verizons much- touted FiOS offers (50/20 Mbps)  At June 2011, Verizon has nearly signed 4.5 Million FiOS FTTH subscribers and has about 3.8 Million FiOS TV subscribers  At June 2011, the FiOS network on commitment to pass 18 million premises (15.7 passed to date) or approximately 60 percent of total households in areas currently covered by Verizon’s wireline network (objective is to reach 70%)  Initial Target: 18 million homes passed by 2010, has not been reached …Now LTE is being deployed  AT&T (FTTN oriented) and Verizon launched Fibre access for delivering HDTV & Triple Play  Churn is very low for FiOS TV Subscribers: around 1%  2Q11: FiOS ARPU ~ $150 11
  • FTTH: Worldwide Status & Strategies: leadersUSA: FiOS TV Packaging & Pricing – Example FiOS TV plans (April 2011) Source: Verizon – April 2011 Verizon claims now to be the 6th largest cable operator in the USA 12
  • Overview: Projects 2 large telcos involved in FTTx deployment FTTH/B FTTN+VDSL ~4.1 million subscribers ~2.75 million subscribers 15.6 million Homes Passed 27 million Homes Passed Large cable companies migrating their infrastructure to Docsis 3.0 since 2008 ~ 65.5 million homes covered today! Municipalities and utilities more and more involved in FTTx deployments in the context of the National Broadband Plan 13
  • Australia NBN 14
  • Telstra joins the NBN In June 2010, and after a long dispute, Telstra signed an agreement with the federal government which is due to be finalised by end 2011Telstra will provide access to its passive infrastructure, decommission its copper network and decommission its cable broadband service, as long as the NBN is deployed The deal could potentially provide Telstra with a post-tax net present value of about AUD 11 billion By this agreement, the government had been seeking a commercial arrangement with Telstra to avoid the need for a duplication of infrastructure for the national roll-out of its NBN Under the deal, NBN Co will have access to Telstra’s backhaul fibre and its network of poles, ducts and wires Telstra has also agreed that as the government’s planned network is rolled out, it will migrate it’s customers to the new fibre network 15
  • NBN Corporate plan: Key Assumption: Environment Coverage (FY2021):  NBN Co will cover all premises within Australia, of which:  93% will be covered by FTTP; and  4% will be covered by Wireless (at least 12 Mbps) and 3% by Satellite NBN Target for June 2013 Total capital expenditure for the network will be $35.9 billion (26 b EUR),of which $ 1.3 b for Replacement & Maintenance 16
  • National Broadband Plans: Worldwide picture Source: Alcatel Lucent Mix of new and existing players Mix of technologies: Copper, Fiber, Wireless 17
  • FTTH: Detailed European situation Focus on Eastern Europe 18
  • Background of the Study► IDATE has been commissioned by the FTTH Council Europe to provide a comprehensive overview of FTTH/B deployments in 39 countries in Europe (1) (9th edition)► Methodology used • Desk research • Direct contacts with FTTH players (questionnaires, phone interviews) • Information exchange with FTTH Council Europe members • Direct contacts with IDATE’s partners in several European countries► Objectives: to provide a complete summary of the status of FTTH/B in Europe, twice a year • Identification of new projects • Characterization of each project: organization initiating the project, Key parameters& Figures (Homes and Buildings passed), Technical parameters, Financing & Business model • We distinguished FTTH/FTTB and FTTN (FTTN/C+VDSL, FTTLA, FTTx+LAN)(1) When referring to Europe we take into account EU 35: EU 27+ Andorra, Croatia, Iceland, Israel, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey.When referring to EU 39 we take into account EU35 + 4 CIS Countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Russia. 19
  • Background of the StudyAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCyprusCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreece EU 27 +Hungary Andorra,Ireland Croatia, EU 35 +Italy EU 27 Iceland, Israel, EU35 Belarus, EU39Latvia Norway, Serbia, Kazakhstan,Lithuania Switzerland, Russia, UkraineLuxembourg TurkeyMaltaNetherlandsPolandPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSwedenUnited Kingdom 20
  • Available results for EU39 Around 300 FTTx projects listed in EU39 Quantitative Qualitative TEO Identification Operator/Organisation TEO is the Lithuanian incumbent, leader in the national broadband market. The FTTH Project launched by TEO is one of its most important network modernisation projects. From 2007 to 2010 , the June 2011 company planned to invest more than LTL 100 million (38.9 million USD) in the new optical access network in the context of an Internet plan called "Zebra". FTTH/B subscribers (*) FTTH/B Homes/Buidings passed Key parameters Asturias 11 000 51 000 TEO first planned to connect the residents of the 5 biggest cities of Lithuania with FTTH, beginning with the provision of Telefonica 83 000 500 000 fiber-optic Internet services in Vilnius. At the end of 2010, TEO provides FTTH services to 86 percent residents of Vilnius, 95 per cent residents of Klaipėda, 75 Orange na 10 000 percent residents of Kaunas, and more than half of Panevėžys and Šiauliai residents. It expects to expand this FTTH Others (1) 7 130 na network to fifty lithuanian cities which should represent an investment of more than LTL 70 million.Total FTTH/B 101 130 561 000 The total investment in the next-generation network should exceed LTL 325 million by the end of 2011. FTTN Homes/Buidings At end 2010, there are 90,120 FTTH customers and 13,640 FTTB subscribers including 200 office buildings. FTTN subscribers (**) covered In a long term perspective, TEO expects to be able to provide services at the speed of several Gbps. In this line, from May Ono 270 000 7 000 000 2011, it increased speeds of its FTTH services ranging from 40 to 300 Mbps without additional cost for residential subscribers. Telefonica na na Others (2) FiguresTotal FTTN 270 000 7 000 000 Number of Households/Business Units passed 340,000 FTTH/B homes passed at December 2009Total Spain (***) 371 130 7 561 000 355,000 FTTH/B homes passed at June 2010 (IDATE estimates) 570,000 FTTH/B homes passed at December 2010 700,000 FTTH/B homes passed at June 2011 (IDATE estimates) FTTx subscriber base 11,600 FTTB and 51,000 FTTH subscribers at December 2009 84,500 FTTH/B subscribers at June 2010 103,760 FTTH/B subscribers at December 2010 120,000 FTTH/B subscribers at June 2011 (IDATE estimates) Technical parameters MDU 60% / SDU 40% Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe 21
  • Overview: Projects – players involved in Eastern Europe FTTH/B Countries Players Homes/BuildingsAround 260 FTTH/B Bulgaria Blizoo Cable operator passed (June 2011) 1 100 000European projects at Denmark TDC Incumbent 250 000mid-2011 Estonia Finland Elion Telia Sonera Incumbent Incumbent 210 600 000 000 France SFR Alternative operator 550 000 France Telecom Incumbent 819 403 Free Alternative operator 450 000 Numericable Cable operator 4 500 000 Germany Net Cologne Power utility 240 000 Wilhelm Tel Power utility 200 000 Hungary Magyar Telecom Incumbent 290 000 Italy Fastweb Alternative operator 2 000 000 Telecom Italia Incumbent 550 000 Some significant Latvia Lattelecom Incumbent 357 485 FTTH/B deployments Lithuania Netherlands TEO KPN/Reggefiber Incumbent Incumbent 700 768 000 000 at June 2011 Norway Altibox Power utility 350 000 Portugal Portugal Telecom Incumbent 1 279 000 Sonaecom Alternative operator 300 000 Vodafone Alternative operator 200 000 (> 200,000 Homes Passed) Russia Beeline/VimpelCom Alternative operator 8 900 000 Comstar UTS Alternative operator 2 000 000 ER Telecom Alternative operator 5 000 000 Slovakia Orange Slovensko Alternative opertaor 320 000 T-COM/Slovak Telecom Incumbent 360 000 Slovenia T2 Alternative operator 310 000 Spain Telefonica Incumbent 500 000 Sweden Telenor Alternative operator 500 000 Telia Sonera Incumbent 320 000 Switzerland Swisscom Incumbent 275 000 Turkey SuperOnline Alternative operator 718 000 UK BT Incumbent 250 000 Ukraine Beeline/VimpelCom Alternative operator 3 000 000 22 Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
  • FTTH in Europe – Eastern Strong LeadAt end of June 2011EU39: 10.2 million FTTH/B subscribers with 69% in Eastern EU  EU27: 4.1 million FTTH/B subscribers with 36% in Eastern EU  CIS (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan): 5.6 million FTTH/B subscribersEU39: 39.8 million FTTH/B Homes Passed with 55% in Eastern EU  EU27: 23.4 million FTTH/B HP with 30% in Eastern EU  CIS (Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan): 14.7 million FTTH/B HPAverage Take Rate higher in average in Eastern EU : - EU35: 18.3% - Russia 44%, Hungary & Czech Rep. 37%, Slovakia 32%, Lithuania 27%, Slovenia 26%, Bulgaria 24% - but … Ukraine 15%, Poland 14%, Romania 5% Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe 23
  • FTTH in Europe - Players►3 main categories involved in EU35 FTTH/B deployments Municipalities & Alternative European Utilities operators / MSOs incumbents• More numerous • Most dynamic • Challenged on BB• Local deployments only • National or local • National deployments deployments 12% of total FTTH/B 55% of total FTTH/B 33% of total FTTH/B Homes Passed at Homes Passed at Homes Passed at June 2011 June 2011 June 2011 Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe 24
  • Europe’s FTTH/B leaders 25
  • FTTH/B subscribers evolution►Countries > 200,000 FTTH/B subscribers at mid-20116 000 000 Market with still a huge potential: +5 000 000 954 K subs. In 6 months!4 000 000 East. EU New entrant, dynamic3 000 000 markets2 000 0001 000 000 0 en e ce s y l ry ly ia ria kia ia ga d wa ain It a ed ga n ss an lan rt u ga va ua r Ru r n Sw Fr No Uk l er Slo Hu h Bu Po Lit th Ne June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe 26
  • New FTTH/B subscribers 1H11►Top 5 countries ► France +87,300 ► Portugal +71,000 ► Bulgaria +69,000 ► Netherlands +43,000 (Russia: + 964,000) ► Spain +41,149 Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe 27
  • FTTH/B Homes Passed evolution►Countries > 1 million FTTH/B Homes Passed at mid-2011► 5 countries in Eastern Europe 14 000 000 Large network overlapping 12 000 000 between main players 10 000 000 2 players covering same buildings in 15 cities Segmented 8 000 000 markets 6 000 000 Largest rollout by 4 000 000 incumbent 2 000 000 0 en e e ia l ia ly ria ia ga nc in an an Ita ss ed rtu lga ra a Ru m hu Fr Sw Uk Bu Po Ro Lit June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe 28
  • FTTH/B Homes Passed trends►Small growth in Italy, France, Sweden ► With respectively 4%, 5% and 5% HP growth in 1H2011 ► Further rollouts planned in Italy on a national scale to be confirmed ► Already good coverage in most dense areas, notably in France (FTTB)►UK’s accelerated coverage (>x2) reveals strong ambitions►European coverage supported by Eastern countries ► Hungary : +172% during 1H2011 ► Poland : +77% during 1H2011 ► Estonia : +35% during 1H2011 29
  • FTTH/B Homes Passed in total HH►Number of Homes Passed not representative of effective coverage (HP in total households) • Only 2 countries > 50% Latvia: 41%Top 6 countries interms of HP in totalhouseholds Andorra: 100% Lithuania: 97% Portugal: 48% Slovenia: 39% Bulgaria: 39% 30Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe
  • FTTH/B leading countries►Pioneer Sweden always heading European FTTH/B market in terms of number of subscribers, but is getting really challenged by growing markets (France, Ukraine)►Hungary’s FTTH/B market is accelerating due to the multiplicity of local players►The CIS countries case: potential of the market confirmed and still very huge for Russia and Ukraine►A part from CIS, majority of subscribers concentrated in 7 countries • Sweden, France, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Bulgaria • Around 59% of total FTTH/B subscribers in EU35 31
  • FTTH/B leading countries But number of subscribers less relevant than Take Rates (1) From the highest… In Scandinavian countries : 62% in Norway, 39% in Sweden In Hungary (37%), Slovakia (32%) or Netherlands (32%) In the Baltics : 27% in Lithuania …to the lowest In France (10%), Switzerland (5%), UK (<1%)Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe (1) Number of subscribers in total Homes Passed 32
  • FTTH/B European technologies► In December 2010, the main architecture deployed is still FTTB► Regarding technology, players have mainly chosen Ethernet► FTTB is the main architecture today deployed in Eastern Europe Main architecture deployed Dec 2010 June 2010 Dec 09 (homes passed segmentation) FTTH 37% 34% 33% FTTB 63% 66% 67% Main technology deployed Dec 2010 June 2010 Dec 09 (homes passed segmentation) PON 27% 26% 24% Ethernet 73% 74% 76% Dwellings deployed Dec 2010 June 2010 Dec 2009 (homes passed segmentation) MDU 77% 76% 75% SDU 23% 24% 25% Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe 33
  • European Ranking►The Ranking includes countries of more than 200,000 households where at least 1% of households are FTTH/B subscribers►At June 2011 • 20 countries in the European Ranking • Ukraine and Hungary new entrant►Three Eastern European countries showed the highest progression in the ranking from 2% to 4 % : Lithuania, Bulgaria and Russia►Major Western Economies such as Italy and France still at the bottom of the Ranking • Others like UK, Germany or Spain absent 34
  • European Ranking European Ranking – June 201130%25%20% FTTH FTTB15%10%5%0% ni a ay en ni a sia ia ia ar k ia ry al s d lic e ce ly y ia ed ar tv on ga ug nd an ub in Ita ke an ua rw ve us lg a m t rt la nl ra an r th o Sw o Bu L en Es un Po r Fi p k Fr Tu om Li N Sl R H he Re U D et ch R N ze C Source: IDATE for FTTH Council Europe 35
  • Global Drivers for FTTH 36
  • Global Drivers for FTTH► A market driven by competition … as it is the case un the US and Europe, in several APAC countries Cable operators could be in the driving seat … especially in Eastern Europe► Quality of Copper Local Loop influencing migration of Residential customers to Fiber – The case of Eastern Europe►Mobile backhaul and LTE … • Mobile operators are densifying their backhaul with the explosion of Mobile Broadband and Smartphones • LTE base stations will need fiber and Femtocells at home also!►Cloud Computing for SMEs • At the difference of the US, in Europe, SMEs can be close to the residential areas • Short latency of Fiber will allow Cloud Computing to target SMEs 37
  • FTTH/B Forecasts up to 2015 38
  • FTTH/B Subscribers Forecasts up to 2015Regional FTTH/B subscriber growth between 2009 and 2015  Eastern Europe should see a strong evolution and push North140 000 000 America out of its 2nd place in terms of number of FTTH/B120 000 000 subscribers in 2012, with over 12 million subscribers against nearly100 000 000 10.8 million in North America. 80 000 000  Asia will undoubtedly remain the 60 000 000 most dynamic region for FTTH/B, be it only due to the size of its populations. The area should have 40 000 000 135 million FTTH/B subscribers in 2015. 20 000 000 0  China and India, will experience Latin America Middle East - Total Western Eastern Europe North America Asia Pacific Africa Europe very high growth rates over the next 5 years. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: IDATE – FTTx Watch Service 2011 39
  • Thank you! 40