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Sue Rudd - Strategy Analytics - Microcells, Femtocells and WiFiasterclass d3
 

Sue Rudd - Strategy Analytics - Microcells, Femtocells and WiFiasterclass d3

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Broadband World Forum 2011 - Sue Rudd - Strategy Analytics - Microcells, Femtocells and WiFi

Broadband World Forum 2011 - Sue Rudd - Strategy Analytics - Microcells, Femtocells and WiFi

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    Sue Rudd - Strategy Analytics - Microcells, Femtocells and WiFiasterclass d3 Sue Rudd - Strategy Analytics - Microcells, Femtocells and WiFiasterclass d3 Presentation Transcript

    • Microcells, Femtocells & Wi-Fi What Are the Tradeoffs? Broadband World Forum Analyst Spotlight Thursday September 29th 13.30 pm Presented by Sue Rudd srudd@strategyanalytics.com Director Service Provider Analysis, Strategy AnalyticsSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011
    • Outline • Drivers for Small Cells • Capacity & Coverage to Deliver Quality User Experience • Requirements that Demand Small Cells • Features of Small Cells: Wi-Fi, Femto & Pico/Micocells • Small Cell Solutions • Femtos for Performance Leap • Wi-Fi Offload to Complement 3G Capacity • Outdoor Femto/Pico cells and Wi-Fi to Leverage Macrocells • Hetnets to Increase Network Capacity and Enhance User Experience Simultaneously • Summary of Tradeoffs Today ….& TomorrowSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 2
    • Overall Drivers: Telefonica Focuses on Network Capacity& Indoor Coverage to improve Customer Experience Source: Telefonica May 2011 3September 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 3
    • Drivers for Small Cells • Overall Driver: Capacity & Coverage Required to Deliver Quality User Experience • Specific Drivers  Traffic Growth Demands New High Capacity Broadband Capacity: • Throughput – Total GigaBytes etc. • Speed – High MBps & Low Latency  Mobile Broadband Peak has shifted to Evening/Night – i.e. at Home Indoors as well as in Automobile  Revenue per GB falling faster than Cost per GBSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 4
    • Traffic Growth Demands New High PerformanceBroadband Capacity Average Data Traffic Per PC/ Modem Sub. Will Double in Many Markets from 2011 to 2015 Worldwide Average Data Use (GBytes/month) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1.763 2.149 2.625 3.155 3.750 4.405 September 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 5
    • Mobile Broadband Peak has shifted toEvening/Night i.e. at Home Indoors as well as in Automobile Bytemobile Trends – US Mobile Data Generates 6+ Hour Usage Peak- Time of Day Peak has Changed: • 6+ hours long • Evening Not Daytime Source: Bytemobile Mobile Analytics Report June 2011 September 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 6
    • Annual Mobile Data Forecasts through 2016 $Total Cost of Operations (TCO) Per GB vs. Revenue Per GB/Yr. Total Revenue Per GB per Year is falling Faster than Cost Per GB $100.00 $10.00 $ GB UMTS/HSPA $90.00 $9.00 $80.00 $8.00 $ GB HSPA+ Annual $ GB By Technology $70.00 $7.00Annual $ Revenue Per GB $60.00 $6.00 $ GB LTE $50.00 $5.00 Global Revenue/ $40.00 $4.00 GB/ Year $30.00 $3.00 N.America $20.00 $2.00 Revenue/ GB/ Year $10.00 $1.00 W.Europe Revenue/ GB/ Year $0.00 $0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Need to slow decline in Revenue per GB and accelerate decline in TCO per GBSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 7
    • Requirements that Demand Small Cells • Rapid Growth in Demand for Broadband Capacity • High Percentage of Indoor Demand • Highly Localized Congestion at Specific Cells at Peak Times • Need for Lower Equipment Costs per Access Point/Cell Site to ‘Bend the Cost Curve’ • Need for Low Cost Installation & Min. ‘Truck Rolls’ • Solutions that do not require Costly Fiber Backhaul or even Carrier Ethernet everywhere…. • Seamless ‘Underlay‘ for Macrocells at same or different Frequency (HetNets) to minimize Operational Complexity and reduce OPEXSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 8
    • Smaller Cells Add Capacity and Coverage Rapidly and ‘Bring Network Closer’ • Cellular Wireless Scales by Spectrum Reuse at Lower Power 1Leveraging heterogeneous network topology: macro network with added small cells like picocellsand femtocellsSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 Source: Qualcomm 9
    • Features of Small Cells: Wi-Fi, Femto & Pico Comparison of Wi-Fi, Femtocells and Pico/Microcells Wi-Fi Femtocells Pico/Microcells Relative Equipment Cost 1X 3-4X 6 - 12X Indoor Outdoor Barely 3GPP Auto Registration Operator Management Seamless Roaming to Macrocell Part of Integrated HetNet No Truck Roll Reqd Integrated Backhaul Connect Ethernet Home Broadband Operator Bband Scalable as Needed More Access points More Sectors/Cells Policy Control & Enforcement Route to Fixed or Mobile PG/W Key Strong Feature Somewhat Capable Newly Capable Not CapableSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 10
    • Femtos Can Provide Performance Leap Indoor Femtos can Add Major Capacity with Fixed Backhaul Assumptions: Example for HSPA+. 16 Users per cell for dense urban HSPA+ system: 10 macro users and 6 home users served either by macrocell or added femto cells. Rx diversity and MMSE Equalizer used. The median user data rates are shown. Note: Also, the worst 10% of macro users get ~15% higher throughput with proper interference management techniques. Source: QualcommSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 11
    • Wi-Fi Offload to Smart Gateway can massively Complement 3G Capacity Smart Wi-Fi Device Client -with Auto Registration and Operator Visibility - can Onload or Offload ‘Bandwidth Hogs’ like Video ‘At the Edge’ Source: Kineto WirelessSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 12
    • Outdoor Femto/Pico cells and Wi-Fi can both Leverage Macrocells HetNet ‘Underlay’ of Femto/Pico Cells can add significant capacity to Macrocell and Retain Option for WiFi OffloadSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 13
    • Hetnets can Increase Network Capacity and Enhance User Experience Simultaneously HetNets Enhance Data Rate and Allow Variable Range Assumptions: 4 Picosper Macro randomly dropped within macro coverage, see 3GPP R1-101509. Based methodology in TR 36.814: 10 MHz FDD, 2x2 MIMO, 25 users and500m ISD. Advanced interference management: enhanced time-domain adaptive resource partitioning, advanced receiver devices with enhanced RRM and RLM 1Similar gain for the uplinkSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 Source: Qualcomm 14
    • Summary: Tradeoffs Today……Fewer Tomorrow Today Must Trade-Off • Initial Equipment Cost  Seamless Roaming • User Owned Fixed Backhaul  Operator Optimized Offload and Backhaul • Zero Truck Rolls  Operator Controlled Frequency Management In Future • Low Cost Wi-FI and Small Cells  Seamless 3GPP Interoperability (NGH) • Offload & Broadband Routing  Operator Policy Enforcement • Simplified Installation  Self Optimizing Networks (SON) or at least Adjacent Frequency AvoidanceSeptember 28th. 2011 email: srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 15
    • Contact Information Sue Rudd Director, Service Provider Analysis Strategy Analytics www.strategyanalytics.com email: srudd@strategyanalytics.comSeptember 28th. 2011 email:srudd@strategyanalytics.com Copyright© Strategy Analytics 2011 16