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UN-WFP Fatima Kassam

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Rockefeller convening presentaion by WFP's Fatima Kassam

Rockefeller convening presentaion by WFP's Fatima Kassam

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  • 1. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND AFRICAN AGRICULTURE GRANTEE CONVENING 24-25 February 2011Project Name: African Risk Capacity Project Grantee : UN World Food Programme Presenter : Fatima Kassam Time allocated – 10 minutes 0
  • 2. Objectives of the Rockefeller Foundation GrantAfrica must transition from managing crises to managing risks –Increased frequency of natural disasters driven by climate change will result in higher risk of hunger and malnutrition in Africa’s most vulnerable populations –Funding is secured on a largely ad hoc basis after disaster strikes and only then can relief be mobilized toward the people who need it most –Lives are lost, assets are depleted, resources are diverted undermining progress towards development goals. –A continental disaster management system would seek to allocate certain resources against probable but uncertain risks 1
  • 3. Two products to address this challenge: 1. African Risk Capacity: Pan-African Disaster Risk Pool Efficient weather-related food security risk management through risk pooling and sharing across regions 2. Africa RiskView Software Platform A financial management tool for decision makers 2
  • 4. African Risk Capacity (ARC)Establishing an African-owned contingency fund for sovereign risk wouldprovide participating governments with immediate cash in the event of anextreme drought, flood or cyclone.It is unlikely that extreme weather events will happen simultaneously in everycountry and in all regions on both sides of the equatorEarly modelling results show climatic diversity across Africa creates apowerful portfolio affect of 50%, reducing the contingency fundingrequirement for drought by half: –If African countries were to pool their drought risk, the pool’s capital requirement would be half the sum of each country creating their own reserves – making Pan-African solidarity in creation of a disaster risk pool an attractive financing mechanism in support of African food security. 3
  • 5. Progress to Date (ARC): Support from the Policy Organs of the African UnionA Pan-African Disaster Risk Pool for Food Security is priority for the AUC,which is shepherding the program through the appropriate policy organs ofthe African Union.•Finance Ministerial – 29-30 March 2010, Lilongwe The Conference of Ministers resolved to “Support efforts towards enhancingnational and regional capacities to mitigate exposure to disaster risk throughinstitutionalizing effective financial and other instruments such as strategic grainreserves, budgeted contingency funds as well as through sharing risk across regions.”•Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial – 16 April 2010, Nairobi The Conference of Ministers: “Call[ed] upon Member States to explore thefeasibility of continental financial risk pooling in working towards the creation of anAfrican-owned, pan-African Disaster Risk Pool, building upon existing and emergingtools and mechanisms for financing disaster risk reduction.”•Assembly endorsements at AU Summits in July 2010 and January 2011•Ministers of Finance, Experts Meeting and Executive Council July 2011 4
  • 6. Progress to Date: Integration into Relevant Continental Policies and Strategies•The AU is pursuing multiple strategies towards food security, climate changeresilience and disaster risk reduction. The Risk Pool provides an elegant wayto link the three in a cost-efficient and innovative manner.•President Mutharika’s Vision for a Food Secure Africa in 5 Years –The Risk Pool is outlined as part of the AUC strategy to support the President’s vision as a system to protect investments in agricultural productivity.•CAADP Pillar III –Pillar III outlines the need for enhanced risk management and improved emergency response. Identifying, analyzing, quantifying and financing risk are prerequisites for achievement of these objectives.•AU Climate Change Adaptation Strategy –Ahead of COP 16, the AUC is developing a continental strategy of which the risk pool can be part. Additionally, linkages are being explored with ClimDev Africa for building national capacities to use climate information effectively for decision-making. 5
  • 7. Africa RiskView: Quantifying and Monitoring RiskUnderpinning the risk pool is knowledge about how to manage risk,utilize “best-of-breed” information and communication technology andwell as earth observation tools.• HAZARD: Weather Indicators• VULNERABILITY: Food Security Profiles• EXPOSURE: Response Costs per Person Africa RiskView is an open software platform that translates satellite-based rainfall information into near real-time needs and costs estimates so that decision makers can take action: • Before a season begins, Africa RiskView estimates average and worst-case costs • During a season it can monitor costs as the season progresses for every first- 6
  • 8. Africa RiskView Screen Shots 7
  • 9. 8
  • 10. 9
  • 11. Southern Africa: Rainfall 10
  • 12. Drought Indicator:Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) 11
  • 13. WRSI “Compared to Normal” 2009/2010 12
  • 14. Defining Vulnerable Populations:Comprehensive Food Security Vulnerability Analyses 13
  • 15. Estimated Population Potentially Affected: Uganda 14
  • 16. Estimated Response Cost ($100/person) 15
  • 17. Estimated Population Potentially Affected: All sub-Saharan Africa 2009/2010 16
  • 18. Monitoring Costs in Season 17
  • 19. Monitoring Costs in Season 18
  • 20. Monitoring Costs in Season 19
  • 21. Online Version 20
  • 22. Key Challenges & Collaboration• Education/ Sensitization on Purpose and Limitations of Africa RiskView • Peer Review (JRC and FEWS-NET) • World Bank • Google• Education/ Sensitization on Purpose and Limitations of ARC • AU Member States • Humanitarian Assistance Community• Difficulties with Climate Change Simulations • Availability of regionally downscaled climate models 21

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