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  • 1. Making Ethiopian Agriculture Climate Resilient: Towards Networking and Coordination to Mainstream Climate Change Adaptation into Food Security and Sustainable DevelopmentAnnual Performance Report for the period June 2010 – May 2011 Submitted to: The Rockefeller Foundation Agreement No.: 2010 CLI304 Submitted by: The Biometrics, GIS and Agro meteorology Research Process Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) Date of report submission: August 29, 2011
  • 2. Table of Contents1. Executive Summary………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….............12. Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….22.1 Project overview…….………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….22.2 Anticipated climate change impact on Ethiopian agriculture……………………………………………………………..22.3 Project vision……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..42.4 Project goal ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………………………42.5 Project objectives………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………43. Progresses: Major outputs and outcomes…………………………………………………………………………………………..43. 1 Project Ramp up………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………43.2 Project Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Tool: The Logical Framework approach………………………53.2.1 Preamble to monitoring and evaluation………………………………………………………………………………………..53.2.2 Project outputs framing…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………63.3 Baseline data on partner institutions: power mapping with respect to CCA mainstreaming…………..173.4 Communication system and tools for the consortium …………………………………………………………………….173.5 Tools for CCA mainstreaming………………………………………………………………………………………………………….183.5.1 Project level Climate Change Adaptation Mainstreaming Tool…………………………………………………….183.5.2 Higher Learning Institute level entry point for mainstreaming CCA……………………………………………..183.5.3 Famer training center level entry point for mainstreaming CCA…………………………………………………..193.6 Capacity building trainings………………………………………………………………………………………………………………203.7 Documentation of current data handling process and national data use policy of NMA………………..203.8 Implementation of postgraduate study at Arba Minch University………………………………………………….213.9 Procuring and placing climate related physical facilities………………………………………………………………….223.10 Installing High Performance Computers (HPCs)……………………………………………………………………………223.11 Development and sharing vulnerability mapping with partners…………………………………………………..23
  • 3. 3.12 Sharing the impact analyses results on key crops with partners………………………………………………….233.13 Developing and sharing list of adaptation options with partners…………………………………………………233.13.1 Holding seminar with key stakeholders…………………………………………………………………………………….233.13.2 Participatory selection of crops and varieties……………………………………………………………………………253.13.3 Providing a dekadal weather forecast information to farmers and DAs……………………………………263.13.4 Information communication tool on seasonal climate prediction and weather forecasting….…274. Emerging opportunities………………………………………………………….……………………………………………………….275. Lessons learnt and key challenges……………………………………………………………………………………….………….286. Next Step…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………….297. Annex……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..30Annex 1: Number of focal persons by partner institution…………………………………………………………………..30Annex 2. Terms of Reference (ToR) for focal personnel……………………………………………………………………..30Annex 3: Structure of M.Sc. study in Climate Change and Development…………………………………………..32Annex 4: Abstract of the paper entitled <The potential impacts of climate change - maize farmingsystem complex in Ethiopia: Towards retrofitting adaptation and mitigation options>…………………....33Annex 5. Abstract of the paper entitled <Towards Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation intoNatural Resources Management Research: Key in Food Security Assurance and SustainableDevelopment……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..34Annex 6. Farm level adaptation responses in maize to the highly likely climate change in Ethiopia……35Annex 7: Poster used for advertising the project ……………………………………………………………………………….36
  • 4. 1. Executive SummaryOwing to its direct reliance on existing local natural resources (soil, water and climate), agricultureis an open roof business with high sensitivity to climate change that degrades those naturalresources to a varying scope and magnitude. In acknowledging climate change projections of bothincreased temperatures along with rainfall alterations in volume and occurrence, climate changereports specific to Ethiopian are identified to adversely affect the country’s agriculture developmentplan. This EIAR-RF collaborative project is initiated in the broad context of the current Ethiopianambitious development plan known as ‘Growth and Transformation Plan’ for 2010-2015. Veryrecently too, the country has planned for another jump-termed climate resilient green economy(CRGE) that works trough 2030. Being the first of its kind in Africa, this program is anticipated toensure the country’s attainment of the middle income status by 2025, while at the same timeleaving the legacy to the global clean development efforts through better environmental services.Through the implementation of the project to-date, a number of salient successes have beenachieved from the perspective of the project objectives. With the project ramp up, the briefing ofthe State Minister of MoA was followed by a series of awareness raising workshops at key partnerinstitutions (five research centers, four high schools, three universities, and eight farmercommunities). A total of 822 male and 480 female were participated in the awareness raisingworkshops. Further a total of 63 key activities leading towards achieving the five cardinalobjectives were embarked up on. Of these, the capacity building training of 58 researchers andacademicians who are the project focal persons was remarkable. Further, about 36 developmentexperts, decision makers and development agents have been imparted with the initial trainingparticularly with respect to the community based adaptation (CBA) for the climate riskmanagement. Currently, 12 development agents, 44 male and 4 female farmers are participating inthe CBA based experiment. The project also supports institutionalization and accreditation ofclimate change courses at four model higher learning universities (Adama, Jimma, Hawassa andArba Minch). The same also complements the ongoing coordination role of two climate concernedinstitutions; Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) - government agency that coordinatesclimate change issues at national level and Climate Change Forum-Ethiopia (CCF-E) - civic societyorganization that coordinates climate research and development nationwide. Both EPA and CCF-Eplay pivotal roles with respect to linking climate change research and development efforts intopolicy and practices. The project outputs have been framed in sequential ways to the purposesand the goal of the Rockefeller Foundation. In addition, it links to CAADP Pillar IV and MDGswhich is now proposed to play a key financial architecture for effectiveness of the ongoing globalsupport to the climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in Africa. To start with, the baseline dataon partner institutions was conducted under the umbrella term ‘power mapping’ with respect toCCA mainstreaming, so that any change from the baseline could be the product of the projectintervention. For this, effective communication tool has been recently put in place, i.e the websitethat makes the construction of agro climate dBase the centre stage, while at the same time ensuringthe agro meteorological data and forecast service provision to the end users (researchers, farmersand investors). This also forms the best entry points to the much desired climate change adaptation(CCA) mainstreaming activities at various levels (project level, higher learning institution andfarmers levels), More importantly, the postgraduate study at local university known as Arba MinchUniversity has been launched through this project and currently four MSc students withbackground of meteorology are attending the courses with two years of formative period. Theproject team has also mapped the vulnerability and shared the result with partners through variousforums; during which the possible adaptation options were drawn for research purpose.Collaborative on-farm experimentation is underway with eight FTCs with which climate earlywarning information is exchanged every 10 days (termed ‘dekadal’). For this, appropriatecommunication tool has been developed. -1-
  • 5. 2. Introduction2.1 Project overviewThe world today faces the biggest challenges of the 21st century viz., how to feed 9 billion peopleby 2050 in the face of climate change under the growing competition for natural resources. Thischallenge is even more crucial given that the world has not yet come close to achieving the MDGsof halving the number of people living in extreme poverty and hunger by 2015. Owing to its directreliance on existing local natural resources (soil, water and climate), agriculture is the mostsensitive of all sectors to climate change that degrades those natural resources to a varying scopeand magnitude. Also, farmers engaged in subsistence agriculture are described as being at thegreatest risk to climate change impacts due to: (i) lack of capacity to exert influence and respond toalterations in their local environment; (ii) dependence on small land holdings that make themunable to afford agricultural losses. These circumstances, common in Ethiopia, positionsubsistence farmers not only as those at the greatest risk to climate change, but those who have thelowest means available to adjust to environmental change. Table 1: Truths about current and projected climate change scenario for Ethiopia2.2 Anticipated climate change impact on Ethiopian agricultureIn acknowledging climate change projections of both increased temperatures along with rainfallalterations in volume and occurrence, climate change reports specific to Ethiopian agriculture aresummarized (Table 1).These comprehensive climate change impacts on Ethiopian agriculture are anticipated to be furtherexacerbated by the ongoing competing claims for resources between cropping and landdegradation, particularly deforestation and farming on steep slopes. Confronting future climatechange impacts in Ethiopia is therefore no longer an option that it requires new level of thinkingand advanced technologies, for the society to come to terms with anticipated climate change.It is with this broad context that the EIAR, as one of the key government organs concerned withclimate-agriculture has initiated this time-critical project with the financial support of TheRockefeller Foundation (RF). The objective of The RF is to ensure the ability of poor andvulnerable smallholder African farmers in a changing climate. The RF’s strategy includes assistingnational agricultural research and development programs, testing interventions that could beimplemented more extensively through Africa in general and in the wake of changing climate inparticular. Developing the necessary scientific evidence and policy environment, as well as -2-
  • 6. building institutional capacity to maintain, increase and improve African farmers own agricultural production, despite the changing climate also forms the central concern of RF. This EIAR-RF collaborative project is initiated in the broad context of the current Ethiopian ambitious development plan known as ‘Growth and Transformation Plan’ for 2010-2015. The first and cost effective entry point involves redefining of ongoing government funded research and development projects to expand them to include climate change issues than strategizing for a standalone climate proof development plans. Envisioning any new research and development projects to take climate as a variable will be the second entry point. The project also supports institutionalization and accreditation of climate change courses at four model higher learning universities (Adama, Jimma, Hawassa and Arba Minch). Farmers Training Centers (FTCs) are also key partners, where the output of the project (be as it may research finding or indigenous) will be verified before further scaling up. The project also supports and strengthens the ongoing coordination role of two climate concerned institutions; Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a government agency that coordinates climate change issues at national level and Climate Change Forum-Ethiopia (CCF-E), a civic society organization. Both EPA and CCF-E will play pivotal roles with respect to linking climate change research and development efforts into policy and practices towards the establishment of the government institution that coordinates climate change efforts economy-wide. Table 2: Summary impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture Highly likely impact Consequences of the likely impacts Increased likelihood of Drought and flood cycles are anticipated to occur at shorter intervals of Droughts and Floods every 3-5 years Increased likelihood of crop damage and/or failure due to short and intense rainfall events Heat buildup in crop plants, resulting in prematurity; thus increasing risk of reduction in yield quality and quantity Heat buildup in animals, resulting in reduced feeding habit and low resource use efficiency; thus increasing risk of reduction in yield quality and quantity Increased Risk of Soil Higher temperatures increases evaporation and soil moisture loss, thusErosion and Emission of damage in soil structure and increasing risk of wind erosion Green House Gases High intensity, short season duration rainfall events increases the (GHGs) likelihood of water erosion Increased emission of green houses gases (CO2 at large) to the atmosphere due to deforestation, resulting in reduced agricultural system productivityShift in rainfall Pattern Belg (short rain) decline; shift from bimodal to monomodal in central, (onset and cessation southern and southeastern Ethiopia dates, amount, intensity, Shortened length of growing season for meher (long rain), mainly for long number of rainy days, cycle oneslength of growing season Extended dry spell during crop critical growth stages increases risk of crop and extent of dry spells) yield reduction and crop failure Decline in water Reduced ground water recharge due to shortened duration of rainfall and availability decrease in levels of perennial streams Overall limitation to irrigation (ground / surface supply) and yield potential -3-
  • 7. 2.3 Project visionTo witness the positive contribution of the EIAR-RF project towards Ethiopia’s desire to attainmiddle income status by 2025, through reducing the negative effects of climate change onagriculture and livelihoods.2.4 Project goalTo strengthen climate change adaptation mainstreaming among climate-agriculture sectors throughimproved networking and the provision of adaptation advice for improved policy decisions andpractices. The system will develop a methodological framework for mainstreaming andcoordinating the network in climate change adaptation.2.5 Project objectives To form a consortium that ensures networking among climate and agriculture institutions for mainstreaming climate change adaptations; To develop a standard methodological tool for monitoring progresses from mainstreaming of CCA and sustain the impact beyond the project life To assess vulnerability (social, economic, environmental) and map impacts To create relevant climate risk adaptation policies and practices suited to effective networking To develop institutional capacity for technology dissemination, uptake and impact pathways to enhance climate change adaptations3. Progresses: Major outputs and outcomes3. 1 Project Ramp upThe project ramp up that formed an entry point to the CCA mainstreaming was conducted byvisiting and debriefing of the project purposes and objectives to the partner institutions and higherofficials, primarily the State Minister of MoA at his office. After the debriefing, the minister firstlyhas expressed his appreciation for such a broad based collaboration, as well its strong link with thecountry’s long aspired development plan and secondly, he gratefully acknowledged thechairmanship position offered to him.The second visit was paid to the CCF-E, an umbrella civic organization that strives to bridge thefragmented climate related research and development projects at national level. It was agreed thatall activities related to awareness raising on CCA mainstreaming, policy and strategy aspectswould be addressed through the CCF-E. From the universities, an effective relationship wasestablished with Arba Minch University, at which climate science courses are offered for degreeaward. The other key partner is the National Meteorology Agency (NMA); a power house not onlyfor provision of seasonal forecasts, but also for knowledge in climate science. Currently a tripartiteactivity is underway among NMA-MoA and EIAR. The NMA, despite existing challenges has afairly strong agrometeorological advisory service unit that can substantially contribute to thesuccess of the project. Overall, about 42 focal personnel have been identified (annex 1) which wasfollowed by trainings and drawing of terms of reverence (TOR) that brought all the focal personnelon board and with which communication and c0-working pursued (annex 2). This was thenfollowed by a series of awareness raising workshops among partner institutions, including the preparatoryand secondary schools (Table 3).To close the loop of chain of partners, ten farmers training centers (FTCs) have been identified, forwhich the corresponding level of institutional capacity has been recorded to serve as a baseline formeasuring changes after intervention. -4-
  • 8. Table 3 : Summary of Awareness raising workshops conducted at different project partner institutions Number of Date No Institution participants Conducted Male Female 1 Melkassa Research Center 200 70 Jan 3-7, 2011 2 Forestry Research Center 70 30 Feb 1-5, 2011 3 Debrezeit Research Center 95 55 Feb 28 –Mar 4,2011 4 Holeta Research Center 103 57 Apr 11-15, 2011 5 Kulumsa Research Center 74 26 May 23-28, 2011 6 Andenet Secondary School (Asela) 90 82 May 30-31,2011 7 Chilalo Terara Secondary School (Asela) 100 78 May 30-31,2011 8 Hawas Preparatory School (Adama) 50 50 June 1-2, 2011 9 St. Joseph Preparatory School (Adama) 40 32 June 1-2, 2011 Total 822 4803.2 Project Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Tool: The Logical Frameworkapproach3.2.1 Preamble to monitoring and evaluationEvidence is clear that Ethiopia urgently needs to find more comprehensive adaptation strategies tobuild new resilience, despite anticipated climate risks. This also points to the wake-up call toengage in trust building and forming a genuine partnership towards strong institutional capacity tosustain gains in CCA across partner institutions. This also needs mainstreaming of CCA into theircore businesses. Thus, mainstreaming will require a shared understanding among policy makers-sector officials- agriculture professionals and local practitioners.The development of methodological framework/tool is to better understand the scope of theindicator variables and data collection that permits to sustain the new system beyond the projectlife. This also demands for examination of the current status and drawing of working conceptualframework within and among the participating institutions. This allows improving reliability ofresulting information and statistics, while also ensuring the sustainability and a dynamic buildingon existing and new CCA activities in project partner institutions. At the end of the project period,adjustments (institutional, capacity building, frequency of data collection) and improvements indata services and exchange must be improved. A set of core indicators for monitoring the CCAmainstreaming even beyond the project life are given in Table 4 and 5.Among many others, logical framework (LFW) approach has been adopted to ensure effective andperformance based M & E of the project outputs. Firstly, process monitoring refers to checking theprogress of an intervention for timely adjustments of early mistakes or to capitalize on potentialearly gains, while process evaluation is a periodic reflection on direction, challenges, successes,implication for design and implementation of the physical activities and the financial performance.Secondly, ex-post evaluation (after project cycle ends) assesses the impact, effectiveness,efficiency, relevance and sustainability of an intervention. Indeed, the primary purpose of M&Etool in this project context is to facilitate improvement by focusing towards the explicitly valueddirections; eg. what do we really want to achieve and how will we produce more of it?, as well as tocontribute to summative evaluation through providing information about unexpected outputsconcerning best case, expected and worst case scenario/stories from the project. -5-
  • 9. This LFW tool is indeed, the result of a thorough review of the project document and discussionwith stakeholders and project partners. The plan specifically draws on clear strategy (roadmap) andtactics that define and describe the expected level of outputs across the implementation process andperiodic targets towards achievement of the impact. It defines the performance indicators, clearlyshowing the value of each monitoring indicator data collection, quality checking, analyses andreporting. The outputs are the same as those in the original project document and the indicatorshave been modified to make them more precise, adequate and valid. • By whom? • How it is done? – Rockefeller Monitoring – Traveling at identified Foundation the growth stages progress – Project Mgt Team and – Periodical progress – Principal attainment review meetings of: Investigator – Field days Need to have – Informal/formal clearly defined roles feedback from farmers Agreed and responsibilities Activities, and partners for accountability Milestones, – Final workshop Outputs, Outcomes – Final Report Figure 1: Simplified schema of process monitoring and evaluation in the project3.2.2 Project outputs framingThe project framework stitches the outputs in sequential ways to the purposes and the goal of theRockefeller Foundation. In addition, it links to CAADP Pillar IV and MDGs (Table 1) which isnow proposed to play a key financial architecture for effectiveness of the ongoing global support tothe climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in Africa. -6-
  • 10. Table 4: Logical Framework of the project Narrative summary Objectively verifiable indicators Means of Verification Important assumptions (external forcing) Goal of Rockefeller Foundation in the project context Enhance sustainable growth and resilience to climate change Purpose/Objective Ensure the ability of poor and vulnerable smallholder African farmers in a changing climate. Outputs 1. A Consortium that ensures networking for 1.1. Number of Temporary Focal Personnel reporting • Conceptual framework of the • Political goodwill mainstreaming climate change adaptation (CCA) directly to the DG of EIAR consortium continues to be 1.2. Number of office space set up/strengthened • Reports by Focal Persons at the DG supportive 1.3 Number of Climate Change Consultant recruited..Girma Office and submitted to the Donor • Financial expenditure 1.4 Number of project staff recruited at identified institutions • Workshop/seminar report system remains conducive 1.5 Project sensitization workshop and conference (for • Financial and physical progress research staff, national and international level) reports 1.6 Number of sensitized staff working for partner institutions • Facilities placed in office 1.7 List of minimum facilities procured and placement 2. A standard framework/tool of monitoring 2.1 Direction/trend of government annual • Annual budget appropriation • Smooth collaboration progresses towards ensuring continuity financial appropriation/investment for CCA in registry of MoFED for CCA among partner /sustainability of networking and CCA impact agriculture • Publications in reputed journals institutions through and beyond the project life 2.2 Number of trained and high caliber climate researchers • List of models acquired and updated • CCA in agriculture working on CCA with time continue receiving 2.3 Number of attendant partner institutions to the policy-science- • Number of partners engaged in CCA related global knowledge, methods and models technology-academics acquiring and updating the models (software) brokering and use in climate research system development interface • Research Directory support 2.4 Level of facilities (hardware) for using in climate • Updated Course Directory research and development system in partner institutions 2.5 Award of certificate to graduated institution and research centers in mainstreaming CCA into their core 7
  • 11. businesses at the end of the project 2.6 Award of graduation certificate, marking the sustainability of the genuine partnership among partner institutions beyond the project life. 2.7 Number of government financed ongoing research projects re-examined to include CCA by core research processes 2.8 Annual number of new research projects involving CCA. 2.9 Number of MSc students graduated in CCA stream or department at Arba Minch university3. Vulnerability (social, economic, environmental) 3.1. Number of reviewed global climate change model • Project progress reports • Interest in scientificand impacts maps....Prof. Mark Jury (GCMs) outputs. • Published manuals/guidelines on evidence continued to 3.2 Number of downscaling of selected GCMs outputs to build up application of CCA and mitigation specific localities. techniques/options. 3.3 Number of more representative model for Ethiopia’s future climate. • Certificates and post graduates 3.4 Number of CC vulnerability maps degrees 3.5. Number of CC impact disaggregated maps • List of adaptation options at 3.6 Number of improved adaptation options (existing identified institution technologies and best practices) linked to pilot forecast • Vulnerability maps at respective product for decisions at identified communities. offices 3.7 Number of localized field testing at identified • Impact maps at respective offices communities 3.8 Number of improved AEZs map of Ethiopia showing shifts in climate pattern Ethiopia 3.9 Number of generic CCA guideline/manual. 3.10 Number of researchers trained in and awarded certificates on climate modelling.4. CCA policies and strategies suited to effective 4.1 Policy document for proper institutional setting in • Document of governance structure • Government’s longnetworking and coordination CCA of government institute that links standing interest and 4.2 Number of national climate risk proof policy/strategy environment and development in commitment in values documents place. of climate science in 4.3 Number of climate data use policy document • Climate risk management policy research and 4.4 Number of briefings/workshops for policy makers, documents at each partner development parliamentarians and top management bodies institution. • Climate data available to users for rich analyses and information use in agricultural decisions • Progress reports 8
  • 12. 5. Institutional capacity for improved technology 5.1 Number of researchers trained in climate change • Training Report • Value added chaindissemination and uptake in place (research, adaptation related research proposal writing • Research Directory approach honoured atextension, farming communities 5.2 Number of digitized, and updated data (ground and all levels (research- remotely sensed) for enriching climate database for • Recorded digitized climate data and policy-development- effective data provision service database at NMA academics- 5.3 Frequency of pilot agriculture tailored forecast products • Extension Department Progress communication scales provision for improved seasonal agricultural decisions Report showing reduced at identified farming communities discrepancy between MoARD and 5.4 Number of steps in CCA technology delivery at the CSA data farmers doorsteps by the National Extension System. • Effective technology and best 5.5 Number of DAs and target farming communities trained practices communication in climate change risk management pathway/flow document in NARS 5.6 Number of universities at which climate change courses • Number of students enrolled for the institutionalized and accredited. CCA course 5.7 Number of thesis projects engaging postgraduate students on CCA (MSc level) in identified universities • Graduates working in the partner 5.8 Number of improved area/yield assessment methods for institutions crop monitoring and yield estimation • Joint Reports of MoA & CSA on crops yield and area accounting 9
  • 13. Table 5: Performance Monitoring and Evaluation indicator tablePlan Detail Objectively verifiable indicators Baseline End of Project Annual targets value targetOverall Objective/Goal of Rockefeller 2010/11 2011/12 ResponsibilityFoundationEnhance sustainable growth and resilienceto climate changePurpose/ObjectiveEnsure the ability of poor andvulnerable smallholder Africanfarmers in a changing climate.Expected Outputs of the project1. A Consortium that ensures networking 1.1. Number of Focal Officer reporting directly to the project 6 38 38 All partners for mainstreaming climate change coordinating office (EIAR) adaptation 1.2. Number of office space set up/strengthened 6 38 38 All partners 1.3. Number of Climate Change Consultant recruited 0 1 - - 1.4 Project sensitization workshop (for partners, national and 1 3 3 EIAR international level) 1.5 Number of sensitized staff working for partner institutions 50 2000+ 2000+ EIAR 1.6 Number of project staff recruited at identified institutions 0 12 12 EIAR 1.7 List of minimum facilities procured and placement 0 15 20 5 All partners2. A standard framework/tool of 2.1 Direction of government annual financial appropriation for 0.5 10 5 5 MoFEDmonitoring progresses towards ensuring CCA in agriculture (billion birr)mainstreaming of CCA on sustainable 2.2 Number of trained researchers/development workers in CCA 10 20 10 10 “”basis 2.3 Facilities (hardware) for using in climate research and 20 200 90 90 EIAR, NMA, development system Universities 2.4 Number of attendants of CCA related global knowledge, 0 5 3 2 All institutions methods and models (software) by partners institution 2.5 Certificate of graduation, marking the formation of genuine and 0 12 12 EIAR sustainable partnerships among partner institutions in confronting challenges of climate change beyond the project period 10
  • 14. 2.6 Certificate of graduation, marking the success in mainstreaming 1 36 - 36 “ of CCA into core businesses of the research institutions and research centres at the end of the project period 2.7 Number of government financed ongoing research projects re- 5 20+ 7+ 8+ EPA, NMA, examined to include CCA by core research processes. NARS 2.8 Annual number of new research projects involving CCA. 1 31+ 10+ 20+ NARS, NMA, universities, high schools 2.9 Number of MSc students graduated in CCA stream at Arba 0 6 - 6 EIAR, universities Minch university.3. Vulnerability (social, economic, 3.1 Number of reviewed global climate change model (GCMs) 1 26 25 NMA,NARS,environmental) and impacts maps outputs Universities, CCF- E 3.2. Number of CC vulnerability maps at national/regional scale 0 26 26 -, “” 3.3 Number of CC disaggregated impact maps at national/regional 0 3 1 2 ‘’ scale 3.4 Number of downscaling of selected GCMs outputs to specific 0 26 26 - ‘’ localities 3.5 Number of downscaled models more realistically representing 0 3 3 - ‘’ Ethiopia’s future climate 3.6 Number of improved AEZs map of Ethiopia showing shifts in 0 2 2 2 NARS,NMA, climate pattern over Ethiopia CCF-E, MoARD, Universities 3.7 Number of improved adaptation options (crops/livestock, 0 10 - 10 NARS, NMA, forestry ) piloted with forecast product for decisions at Universities identified FTCs (farming communities) 3.8 Number of localized field testing at identified FTCs 0 10 - 10 NARS,NMA, 3.9 Number of generic CCA guideline/manual 0 1 - 1 NARS,NMA, CCF-E, MoA, Universities, high school 3.10 Number of researchers trained in and awarded certificates on 13 73 30 30 NARS, NMA, climate modelling Universities4. Climate change adaptation policies and 4.1 Policy document for proper institutional setting in CCA 0 1 1 CCF-E, EPA,strategies suiting effective networking and developed EIAR, NMA, MoAcoordination 4.2 Number of trainings/policy brief workshops to decision policy 0 2 1 1 makers and parliamentarians 4.3 Number of National Climate risk (drought, flood, frost) 0 1 - 1 “” management policy and strategy documents 11
  • 15. 4.4 Number of climate data use policy and use right document 0 1 1 - NMA, EIAR, CCF-E, EPA, EPA5. Institutional capacity for improved 5.1 Number of researchers trained in climate change adaptation 20 200 90 90 NARS, technology dissemination and uptake related research proposal writing Universities, NMA in place (research, extension, farming 5.2 Number of ongoing government funded research projects 5 20+ 7+ 8+ NARS, communities) expanded to include CCA Universities 5.3 Annual number of government funded new research projects 1 31+ 10+ 20+ NARS, NMA, targeting CCA. universities, high schools 5.4 Number of digitized, and updated national database for 0 1 1 1 NMA enriching climate database for effective data provision service 5.5 Frequency of pilot agriculture tailored forecast products 0 8 4 4 NMA,NARS, provision for improved seasonal agricultural decisions at Universities, MoA identified farming communities (10 FTCs) 5.6 Number of improved steps in CCA technology delivery at the 0 5 5 NMA,NARS, farmers doorsteps by the National Extension System. Universities, MoA 5.7 Number of DAs and target farming communities trained in 0 700 400 300 NMA,NARS, climate change risk management Universities, MoA 5.8 Number of universities at which climate change course 0 3 2 1 EIAR, Hawass, institutionalized and accredited. Jimma and Assela Universities 5.9 Number of thesis projects engaging postgraduate students on 0 6 - 6 EIAR CCA (MSc level) at Arba Minch University. 0 2 2 MoA, NARS, 5.10 Number of improved area/yield assessment methods for crop NMA, Universities monitoring and yield estimation 12
  • 16. Table 6: Activities: Plan of Action Activity Quantity 2010 2010/2011 2011/2012Outp Jun- Sep-Nov Dec- Mar- Jun- Sep- Dec- Mar-uts Aug Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Establish a detailed table for indicators and the respective data collections (including 1 - - 1 units of measure, frequency, scale etc) that are necessary to build the CCA mainstreaming indicators (list of variables by institution). implementation (first report) Narrate the sources of CCA monitoring indicator data collection for each of the 1 - - 1 General: Entry points to variables in each of the institutions (List of data sources) and reporting to the coordination office at the outset Narrate how the collected information is processed, analyzed and published 1 - - 1 Describe how frequent CCA monitoring indicator data are actually collected (where 1 - - 1 exist) at each institution Engage in CCA monitoring indicator data collection processes (field/lab 6 - - 1 1 1 1 1 1 measurements/reordering disaggregated and aggregated (No of reports from each partner institution) 12 11 - 11.1 Establish a Consortium of partners (number of members) Establish a multidisciplinary team of experts/Technical Task Force/Focal personnel 25 25 - -1.2 (No of members)1.3 Draw a consortium conceptual framework 1 - 11.2 Office space setup (No of office/desk) 34 20 141.4 Conduct sensitization workshop 17 13 41.5 Release posters, brochures/flyers etc 5 1 - 1 - 1 1 11.6 Conduct press conference 3 1 1 11.7 Conduct national workshop 1 11.8 Conduct international workshop 1 11.9 Establish community of best practice (No of FTCs) 10 101.10 Advertize position and recruit CC consultant 1 11.11 Advertising positions project staff (No of persons) 12 12 Conduct a comprehensive review and mapping of partner institutions with respect to 6 61.12 climate change adaptation (No of partners)1.13 Develop communication systems/tools for consortium (No of communication tools) 3 2 11.14 Complete, updated monitoring and evaluation plan (No of plan document) 1 12.1 Pay visit to MoFED and brows websites and other secondary sources (No of visit) 2 1 1 13
  • 17. Keep track/record of direction of government annual financial appropriation for CCA 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12.2 in agriculture (No of government institutions supported/from MoFED)—No of visit2.3 Conduct training need assessment Conduct series of training on identified areas (proposal writing, simulation 8 2 2 2 22.4 software—No of trainings2.5 Procurement of facilities(hardware and software)—types 30 6 6 6 6 6 Undertake series of monitoring on frequency of global knowledge and models 6 1 1 1 1 1 12.5 obtained, updated and used by partners institutions (research, NMA, universities)—Frequency of monitoring Undertake frequent (quarterly basis) monitoring and evaluation of all the partners on 6 1 1 1 1 1 12.6 the key success indicators2.7 Conduct training in CCA related new research proposal writing (No of trainees) 360 20 50 80 80 80 50 Revisiting the ongoing research projects: federal or regional research institutes and 50 15 15 15 52.8 academics with a view to expanding to include CCA (No of revisited ongoing projects) Making formal communication with Research Processes and revisiting the ongoing 3 1 1 12.9 research projects for sensitivity to climate change and making amendments Participation in review processes and commenting for sensitivity of the new research 3 1 1 12.10.1 projects and making amendments with respect to CCA Accessing the finalized new research proposals through Research Process Directors 3 1 1 12.10.2 for comments pertaining to CCA by climate personnel , as well as keep tracking Communicating with officials at Arba Minch University on the launching of a new 2 22.11.1 MSc program in climate change adaptation Reviewing the existing MSc curriculum on meteorology and climate change and 1 12.11.2 designing a new curriculum for masters program in climate change together with experts from Arba Minch University Identification of resource persons available locally and internationally for offering the 1 12.11.3 designed climate change courses2.11.4 Accreditation of the program and courses by the University Senate 1 1 Recruit post graduate students to be fully sponsored by the project to study on climate 6 62.11.5 change at identified universities (No of students) Sponsoring financially and support technically the enrolled MSc students for climate 6 62.11.6 change proposals relevant to the EIAR-RF project objectives at Arba Minch Developing research concept notes on CCA and inviting those students enrolled for 15 152.11.7 MSc students at relevant universities –No of students Advise on thesis projects engaging postgraduate students (MSc level) in identified2.11.8 agricultural universities (Quarter of a year) Keep track/record of number of trained researchers working in CCA (No of trained 200 50 50 50 502.11.9 personnel in climate science)—both short and long terms Organize a forum to map the sustainable partnership among project partners beyond 2 1 22.11.10 the project life (No of forum/workshops). 14
  • 18. Preparation and award of certificate for the project partners for their success in 38 382.11.11 mainstreaming CCA into their strategies, programs and projects Conduct gap analyses in CCA monitoring indicator data generation (eg; seasonal 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 climate outlook, data quality assurance, database construction, data use policy etc)2..12 and data collection frequency for ultimate optimization of efforts on overall scale and across model institutions (No of quarters) Describe corresponding solutions to the gaps for future optimization of efforts, 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 12.13 including data collection frequency, facilities, knowledge etc (No of quarters)3.1.1 Undertake reviewing global climate change model outputs (No of models) 26 13 133.1.2 Identify most representative GCMs outputs 3 3 Conduct climate analyses/trends from past observations & future scenarios (data 5 3 23.2.1 type) Downscaling of GCMs outputs, using most representative one/s (No of to target 2 1 13.2,2 locations representative models) Draw CC social, economic and environmental vulnerability map to design and 3 2 13.3.1 implement community-based adaptation/CBA (No of vulnerability maps) Map climate change disaggregated impacts on Ethiopian agriculture using simulation 3 2 13.3.2 modeling tools (No of impact maps) Identify alternative adaptation options (crops/livestock, forestry) piloted with forecast 20 6 6 6 23.4 product for decisions at a target place and period (No of adaptation options)3.5 Con duct ground truth verification survey at selected farming zones Localized field testing of the model outputs at selected farming zones (No of 20 6 6 6 23.6 localized field testing) Collect data, analyze and develop AEZs map showing shifts in climate pattern over 1 13.7 Ethiopia (No of map)3.8 Produce generic CCA guideline/manual (No of manuals) 1 13.9 Conduct training of relevant researchers on GCMs modelling (No of trainings) 10 2 2 2 2 2 Undertake gap analyses on agricultural research policy of the country (No of sources 3 1 1 14.1 of information) Scoping the existing Agricultural Research Policy document to include the CCA (No 1 0.5 0.54.2 of document)4.3 Scoping the existing Agricultural Research Strategy document to include CCA 1 0.5 0.5 Conduct awareness raising workshops and trainings for policy makers (No of 3 1 1 14.4 trainings) Building on the ongoing national CCA and mitigation policy document, including 2 1 14.5 governance structure of the new government coordination office (Time quarters) Building on the ongoing national CCA and mitigation strategy document for 2 1 14.6 implementation (Quarter of a year) Building on the ongoing national climate risk (drought, flood, frost) management 2 1 14.7 policy document (Quarter of a year) 15
  • 19. Building on the existing national climate risk (drought, flood, frost) management 2 1 14.8 strategy document (Quarter of a year) Documentation of current data handling process by National Meteorology Agency 1 14.9 (No of document) Conduct gap analyses on climate data use policy and operational guideline (time 2 1 14.10 quarter)4.11 Building on the existing data use policy framework 1 Conduct training for the existing Extension System in climate change risk 200 40 40 40 40 405.1 management (No of trainees) Conduct training for target farming communities in climate change risk management 500 100 100 100 100 1005.2 (No of trainees) Conduct gaps analyses for delivery of technology and best practices against the 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 15.3 existing extension and comparison in the face of the changing climate (No of thought of methods in technology extension) Document alternative adaptation options (crops/livestock, forestry) piloted with 20 6 6 6 25.4 forecast product for decisions at a target place and period (No of adaptation options)5.5 Con duct ground truth verification survey at selected farming zones Piloting seasonal climate outlook, weather forecasting for identified community based 5 3 25.6 adaptation (CBA) (Number of climate forecast) Conduct seasonal climate outlook product validation scheme at NMA and measure 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 15.7 values therein with respect to agricultural decisions at specific localities (No of forecast validation)5.8 Suitability mapping of high value crops (Number ) 4 2 25.9 Pilot soil water balance study in relation to changing climate at least at two one centre 2 1 1 Prepare new CCA methods and models that fits into the existing national technology 5 2 2 15.10 extension architecture (No of new models and methods) Localized field testing of the model outputs at selected farming zones (No of 20 6 6 6 25.11 localized field testing)5.12 Redefine the conceptual framework of NMA-Research-Extension-Farmers landscape5.13 Conduct pilot survey and analyses on area/yield for major crops (No of survey) 1 1 Pilot monitoring of major food security crops using identified tools (eg; LEAP, 5 1 1 1 1 15.14 PHYGRO) (Quarter of a year) and remote sensing services Pilot crop yield estimation of major food security crops using identified tools (eg; 2 1 15.15 LEAP) (No of crops attended) Analyse and account for gaps between actual/farmers yields, research 2 1 15.16 results/experimental and potential/biological maximum yields for major crops and selected farming zones (No of trials) Develop improved methods on area/yield for data quality assurance (No of improved 2 25.17 methods) Report writing (quarterly, semi annual and annual) (No of reports) 14 1 2 1 3 1 2 3 1izatioFinal Convening final workshop (Once-off) 1 1n Publication of project outputs/proceedings (No of copies) 200 200 16
  • 20. 3.3 Baseline data on partner institutions: power mapping with respectto CCA mainstreamingBaseline data that describing the current position of each of the partners has been collectedthrough dispatching a relevant questionnaire to each of the participating institutions thathelped for power mapping ‘who is doing what’ with respect to CCA. The analyses shows,none of the partners, except EIAR, NMA and Arba Minch University have structured climatechange units at any level. Adama, Jimma and Hawassa Universities have some courses in fewstreams of their undergraduate programs. Oromiya Agricultural Research Institute hasemployed three junior meteorologists and one GIS specialist, while it has no single project onCCA. The Southern and Amhara Agricultural Research Institutes have also employed onegraduate meteorologist each, with one climate related research activity. The Tigray Instituteof Agricultural Research has neither climate change project nor climate man in its system.The pilot high school and preparatory schools have ‘Environmental Clubs/Scouts’ in whichclimate change issues has been treated very marginally.3.4 Communication system and tools for the consortiumDifferent communication tools like the EIAR website, mobile phone, and RANET have beenused in the communication process. Very recently, an independent web basedAgrometerological database management system and advisory service was developed withthe full financial coverage by the Rockefeller Foundation and the technical support of theproject team (the home page is attached below).A webpage was developed with the purpose of easing the chronic challenges embodied indata scarcity and access, as well as, link the users to the early warning information sources.In addition, it provides important web links that enhance the use of forecast products from allover the world; international, regional, national and private forecasters. Included forecastcommunities, but not limited to, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society(IRI), IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) and National MeteorologyAgency (NMA) (Figure 2).In addition to the above communication tools posters, banners, pamphlets and flyers havebeen used to announce the official launch of the project as well as to communicate thefindings of the project among key stakeholders. Annex xx shows a poster that has been usedto introduce the project to key stakeholders. Figure 2: Home page of the webpage 17
  • 21. 3.5 Tools for CCA mainstreamingDifferent levels of CCA mainstreaming tools have been identified for use in this project.These tools include project level, farmers training centers and higher learning institutionslevel mainstreaming tools.3.5.1 Project level Climate Change Adaptation Mainstreaming ToolThis tool focuses on assessing the extent to which projects’ intervention could be influencedby climate risks and the remedies to manage such risks. It is a seven-step approach formainstreaming climate change adaptation into projects and activities undergoing at a researchcenter or development institutions. It is known as the Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation(CVA) pathway that follows a development path parallel to the project cycle. Figure 3illustrates the relationship between the project cycle and the CVA Pathway, and the toolsavailable to practitioners to complete each step of the project. Figure 3: Summary of the project level Tools/pathways for mainstreaming CCA3.5.2 Higher Learning Institute level entry point for mainstreaming CCAThe comprehensive knowledge review reveals that all the three partner agriculturaluniversities have almost no CCA courses in their curricula. Thus, this tool is designed to helpthe universities incorporate CCA courses in their curricula and build their institutionalcapacities to offer the courses by own manpower. 18
  • 22. Figure 4: Summary of the higher learning institution level Tools/pathways for mainstreaming CCA3.5.3 Famer training center level entry point for mainstreaming CCA Steps Methods Output Need assessment & FTC selection Background knowledgegap Identification Interviews, Seminar, review of existing documents Module Preparation of training modules Training module Development Conducting capacity building trainings for selected DAs & farmersImplementation Piloting best bet adaptation options Yield improvement Installation of communication tools Timely monitoring success or M and E failure using predefined set of Increased success &reduced performance indicators climate risksFigure 5: Farmer training center level CCA mainstreaming tool 19
  • 23. 3.6 Capacity building trainings In Ethiopia, smallholder farmers are operating in a highly variable and complexenvironment. Rainfall patterns are irregular, with soil fertility levels showing considerablevariations over short distances. Blanket recommendations regarding fertilizer applicationsand choice of variety, sowing date etc. are, therefore, unlikely to be effective. On the otherhand, the cost and time required for development of site specific recommendation areprohibitive. In such situation, the use of decision support tool may allow cost and time savingand improve the quality of decision making. In this regard, crop simulation models:Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System forAgrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) are identified as best models while practicing climaterisk management options. Table 7 summarizes those series of capacity building trainingsconducted on scientific paper writing, climate-crop simulation modeling that were impartedto researchers and academicians drawn from partners.Table 7: Capacity building training given to the project partners (researchers and academicians) Training Provided Type of No. of participants Date course title by participants Male Female conducted Scientific Melkassa Agricultural Research center Researchers of 15 2 proposal writing (MARC) (Agmet- Researchers) MARC Jun 23, 2010 APSIM Melkassa Agricultural Research center Focal persons 18 3 (MARC) (Agmet- Researchers) Oct 20-29,2010 DSSAT Melkassa Agricultural Research center Focal persons 18 3 (MARC) (Agmet- Researchers) Oct 20-29,2010 SDSM Melkassa Agricultural Research center Focal persons 18 3 (MARC) (Agmet- Researchers) Oct 20-29,2010 Regional climate International center for theoretical Focal persons 10 1 Dec 30 – Jan modeling using Physics (ICTP) ICTP’s RegCM4 04, 20103.7 Documentation of current data handling process and national data use policy of NMACurrently, NMA has more than 1000 meteorological stations, of which 17 are synoptic andapproximately 130 are first class or principal that records all climate elements required forfull range of analyses and modeling. Around 400 stations are third class stations observingonly minimum and maximum temperatures, while the remaining ones are 4th class, recordingonly rainfall.NMA has chosen CLIDATA for its database management using a simple excel sheet, whilesome data like relative humidity and wind speed are not computerized yet. The remotesensing data available at NMA has also not been put to use, while the same institution is thefocal point for reception and application of the remotely sensed data at national level.At the HQs, NMA possess two operational dedicated systems for the reception ofEUMETCast, one installed by the ESA TIGER Project in 2004, while the other one of morerecent date (2007).The products received are those of the EUMETCast Africa service,including all twelve METEOSAT channels, Japanese MITSAT images, some MODIS-basedand other NOAA/NESDIS imagery, EUMETSAT meteorological products, the range ofVG4AAFRICA products derived from SPOT VEGETATION and disseminated by VITO aswell as WMO synoptic data for Africa. 20
  • 24. It is mainly the VGT4AFRICA images that are consulted by the agromet team during thepreparation of various reports. None of the Regional Branches of NMA are equipped with asatellite receiving station or has otherwise access to the imagery. None of the imageryreceived is republished in any of the bulletins or on the website of NMA, except for the farinfrared channel of METEOSAT that is featured on the agency’s website and updated severaltimes each day.On the other hand, the climate data provision policy of NMA is yet to be analysed fromwhich useful recommendation would be released shortly.3.8 Implementation of postgraduate study at Arba Minch UniversityArba Minch University (AMU) is one of the partner institutions that had launched apostgraduate program in meteorology in 2005. However, the program was closed after twoyears. Luckily, the advent of the Rockefeller Foundation project has enabled the university toreinstate the program in its academic curricula through the commutations made with theproject hosting institution (EIAR) and AMU. To this effect, a group of experts drawn fromAMU and EIAR have designed ten courses ( annex 32) that aim at providing advanced studyof the key issues in climate change science and adaptation/mitigation relevant policydimension and impact modeling within the development context. The new M.Sc. programand courses has already been accredited by the University Senate. This has also created anopportunity for the other interested institutions to train professionals in the field of CCA.While the initial plan was to train only two MSc students abroad, presently four students areattending the program under full financial support of the Rockefeller Foundation project foraward of masters degree in ‘Climate Change and Development’ in two years of formativeperiod. The students have been drawn from different research institutions (two fromOromiya, one from the Southern Region and one from EIAR). The project is also planning tosponsor at least the thesis works of 3-5 already registered MSc students in the sameuniversity. For MU too, this will be a golden opportunity to build institutional capacity in thenew program.The sustainability of the new postgraduate program was a concern for the officials; while theproject hosting institute (EIAR) has confirmed that full support will be provided through theRockefeller Foundation project during the years to come,. It was also agreed that theuniversity itself will promote itself, like through joining the UFORUM to solve risks relatedto sustainability. The university has also been advised to open a summer program be it for ashort term training or awarding a degree. 21
  • 25. Figure 6. Partial view of the dialogue between Arba Minch University Officials and EIARdelegates3.9 Procuring and placing climate related physical facilitiesWith the aim of capacitating farmers training centers (FTCs) and also facilitating for easyexchange of early warning information on seasonal climate prediction and weatherforecasting, the project has planned to install four computers, together with thecommunication radio in a RANET system. RANET (Radio and Internet for theCommunication of Hydro-Meteorological Information for Rural Development) is a satellitebased broadcast that utilizes WorldSpace AfriStar and AsiaStar satellites. The uniqueadvantage of the system for rural applications relates to the simple and inexpensive satellitereceiver. Moreover, the system does not require internet connection to have access to dataand information except for uploading information at the beginning. With no bigger than atypical personal FM radio is required, the system can be easily installed without any specialsupport from the trained technician. So far, only two desktop computers have been procuredand only one space radio is spared from the NMA side for the intended purpose. Furtherattempt will be made to improve the situation.3.10 Installing High Performance Computers (HPCs)Request was made, but not purchased due to administrative reasons 22
  • 26. 3.11 Development and sharing vulnerability mapping with partnersFollowing the capacity building training on climate change vulnerability mapping andanalyses of its impact on selected food security crops, the principal investigator and the othertwo team members have presented a solicited paper on the Third National Maize Workshopthat was recently held in Addis Ababa. Rockefeller Foundation is fully acknowledged forsponsoring the preparation of the paper entitled ‘The potential impacts of climate change-maize farming system complex in Ethiopia: Towards retrofitting adaptation and mitigationoptions’. For more details see the abstract (Annex 4). The PI of the project has also presenteda solicited paper entitled <Towards Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into NaturalResources Management Research: Key in Food Security Assurance and SustainableDevelopment> at the recently organized Soil and Water Research workshop organized byEIAR (Annex 5). Full paper can be submitted to the Rockefeller Foundation for furtherdistribution3.12 Sharing the impact analyses results on key crops with partnersThe impact analyses for maize crop to continue growing under the climate changed futuredates in Ethiopia has been conducted and communicated during the maize workshopindicated above. We have also planned to distribute among the stakeholders using the newlydeveloped website. The same procedure is being under use to conduct impact analyses for theother food security crops (sorghum, wheat, barley and teff) for further publication andknowledge sharing.3.13 Developing and sharing list of adaptation options with partnersThe adaptation and mitigation options under the most likely future climate change scenarioshas been communicated for maize farming in dryland benchmarks and action sites ( referAnnex 6).Acknowledging that climate and weather affect crops through the entire growth cycle, theRockefeller Foundation project recognizes the seasonal climate prediction and weatherforecasting as the best adaption option for improved seasonal agricultural decision.Accordingly, a collaborative (among NMA, EIAR, MoA and FTCs) CBA based adaptationtrial is underway in four districts of the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia under the title<Piloting seasonal climate prediction in crop monitoring and yield estimation underidentified community based adaptation (CBA) scheme>. Full processes involved in theimplementation of this research are discussed in the following section. This experimentationaims at providing early warning (advance) information for improved agricultural productionsystem on key rainy season variables. Prior to the implementation of this research, thefollowing activities have been conducted.3.13.1 Holding seminar with key stakeholdersA seminar was conducted with the aim of introducing the objective of the pilot and arriving atconsensus on how to implement. The long term objective of the pilot was enhancingagricultural production by encouraging the farming community to use climate outlooks andweather forecasts in farm level decisions. Local decision makers and experts drawn from theMoA, NMA and EIAR were in attendance to the seminar that eventually led to formulation ofthe treatments for field experimentation (Fig 7). 23
  • 27. From the discussion, it was revealing that potential users do not really understand theeconomic benefit of using meteorological information in their day-to-day agriculturalactivities, hence there has been low demand for the information and as a result, it was notpossible to value the impact of seasonal climate prediction and weather forecastinginformation. For NMA, the provision of such services also raises its visibility in improvingthe space-time characteristics of its seasonal climate outlook and weather forecastinginformation and provision service.Figure 7. Partial view of seminar : decsion maker and agricultural exstention experts.In each of the four project districts, two FTC’s were selected (a total of 8 FTCs) of which oneFTC is assigned to receive both improved technological package plus agrometeorologicalinformation (variable one), while the second FTC is titled to receive only improvedtechnological package (variable 2) as indicated in Fig 8. East Showa zone(Central Rift Valley Region) Ada’a Lome Adama Boset District District District District Gunda Kality Deqk FTC Gurma_T Dabe_Den Guraja Digalu_W Tri_Bereti Gurba FTC (TR1) ole FTC gore FTC FTC onga FTC FTC FTC (TR2) (TR2) (TR1) (TR2) (TR1) (TR2) (TR1) Six Six Six Six Six Six Six Six Farmers Farmers Farmers Farmers Farmers Farmers Farmers FarmersFig. 8 Schematic representation of the selected action sites and treatments 24
  • 28. After the action sites and treatments have been selected, decision had to be made on the fieldlayout and the way forward on the piloting.Table 8 Summary of seminar participant experts by partner institution ParticipantsNo. Institutions Decision Maker Expert Total 1 NMA 1 3 4 2 MoA 4 6 10 3 EIAR 1 3 4 Total 6 12 183.13.2 Participatory selection of crops and varietiesAfter launching the pilot project and engaging partner institutions, the next step wasintroducing the pilot to selected development agents and farmers and selection of crop andvarieties (Table 9).Table 9 List of crops and varieties used for commmnity based adaptation trial. No. District Crop Variety 1 Ada’a Wheat HAR -604 2 Lome Teff DZ-CR-37 3 Adama Haricot beans AWASH-1 4 Boset Teff DZ-CR-37Logistics, including agricultural inputs and responsible institution for a given task wasdetermined immediately. Finally, the workshop was winded up with every institution takingits responsibilities and pledges towards the success of the objective underlying the CBAbased experimentation.Table 10 Summary of development agents and farmers participated in pilot project Participants No District Development Agent Farmers Male Female Male Female 1 2 12 1 Ada’a 0 2 2 Lume 1 10 2 3 Adama 2 1 11 1 4 Boset 2 1 11 1 Total 7 5 44 4 25
  • 29. 3.13.3 Providing a dekadal weather forecast information to farmers and DAsIn the process of downscaling the national level forecast product to the community level,enhancing the frequency of the weather information provision and crop monitoring is crucial.Installing plastic rain gauges and providing Crop Monitoring Format were the prior tasksbefore planting on each of the FTCs fields, who are entitled to receive both technologies plusweather information. In order to ensure the project success, the second training was alsoconducted for 12 female and 11 male DAS DAs on how to record rain event from the raingauge and on crop phenology. Following the training, those selected DAs are expected toreport the recorded rainfall and observed phenological observations as well as cropperformance report every 10 days. Information on the probability of the start of rains and onoptimum planting dates of various crops and varieties were also issued at the beginning of therainy season.Currently, community level forecast and early warning service for any abnormal performanceof the rainy season and the possible occurrence of dry spells is issued on dekadal (10 daily)basis. A bulletin composed of crop performance report, whether impact assessment andforecast (outlook) as well as agro meteorological advisories is delivered to developmentagents every 10 day so that they could advise the farmer. Towards the end of the season,yield forecasting will be conducted and compared with yields obtained by those farmers whodid not receive agrometeorological advisory service.Table 11. Data and information to be disseminated and means of disseminationNo. Information Time resolution Means of dissemination1 Early warning Any time Short message service (SMS) and Regional Mass Media (Radio)2 Weekly Weather Every week Regional Mass Media (Radio) Forecast3 10 daily agro- Every 10 days Fax, e-mail , direct contact meteorological advisory service4 Monthly climate, Every month Fax, e-mail , direct contact health and agro- meteorological bulletin5 Seasonal climate Every season (bega, belg, Regional Mass Media (Radio) and prediction kiremt) climate outlook forum (COF)6 Seasonal climate, Every season (bega, belg, Fax, e-mail , Direct contact prediction, agro- kiremt) meteorological bulletin 26
  • 30. 3.13.4 Information communication tool on seasonal climate prediction and weather forecastingInformation communication tool was prepared, considering the existing reality and currentlevel of communication tools which will be implemented in the pilot project. For details referFig. 9. Figure 9. Communication tool at various levels4. Emerging opportunities Ethiopia is committed to follow the climate resilient green economy approach, that gives wider room for demonstration of values of the Rockefeller Foundation financed in the new national initiative. The omnipresence of the MOA till grass root level (the establishment of 11,000 Farmer Training Centers and 69,000 development agents positioning at community level. Enhanced interest of research to expand government funded research projects to include CCA 27
  • 31. Opportunity of expanding (scaling out) the project idea and practices to Rockefeller Foundation grant receiving countries in East Africa Strong commitment from African Governments on CCA Public climate money is hovering in the air; thus any one with good idea has an opportunity access the money. Opportunities are also many, especially since the time is right and ripe to confront climate change through networking, and that, international donors are demonstrating great interest. 5. Lessons learnt and key challenges The research system cannot have any priority agenda than considering climate as a variable in its core business. Clearly, adaptation to climate change requires new level of thinking and technologies (business as usual cannot be the way forward). Therefore, re-positioning the existing technologies in response to ensuing opportunities is a key issue. Furthermore, structuring cclimate science courses into the high schools and higher learning institutions is all the more decisive factor. We also learnt that partner institutions need to be graduated for mainstreaming CCA into their core business. While adaptation is recognized as localized action, however, supportive and enabling policies at the national and beyond are also critical to benefit from the ‘low lying fruits’ from the adaptation efforts. Table 12. Key challenges in successful implementation of the CCA mainstreaming project Climate- Critical challenges (key to success) agriculture InstitutionNational • Standardizing, computerization and compatible network of national climate databaseMeteorology • Making forecast user-tailored, with particular focus on agricultureAgency (NMA) • Strengthening institutional capacity in space-time quality of the forecast products • Formulate working climate data use policy and use right • Linking its capacity to MoA to provide Agrometeorological Advisory Extension ServiceResearch • Strengthening institutional capacity to analyze vulnerability and costs of the likely climate change impact • Aligning existing and future research projects and activities in order to proof adaptation options • Attaching research products to the forecast products and timely communication to clients • Developing innovative adaptation models and methods, scientific and systematic monitoring for the future climate changed dates • Expanding its partnerships with other development support institutions (development in a changed climate would be complex, requiring partnership) • Increasing the scalability of the pilot application of the seasonal climate prediction and weather forecast for improved operational decisions.Ministry of • Improving area and yield assessment techniques for quality assuranceAgriculture • Strengthening institutional capacity for better technology communication and uptake pathways • Improving the agro-ecological shit map following the climate change impactKnowledge • Review existing curricula and structuring climate change adaptation into research and education atInstitutions all levels(HEIs) • Capacity building of teachers, curriculum developers and researchers. • Ensuring accreditation of the courses and working for sustainability of the programPolicy makers • Structuring an independent government body for coordination of climate change issues that also ensures networking 28
  • 32. • Formulation of National Drought Policy (NDP) in view of the anticipated adverse climate change impact on Ethiopian economy wide sectorsFarmers Training • Capacity building (office infrastructure and training) to respond and minimize the threat and lossesCenters from drought • Promote the use of localized/indigenous/traditional knowledge and know-how • Preparedness and trust building to respond to the early warning information 6. Next Step Firstly, any activity that has not fully achieved (if any) will be flagged and implemented immediately. Secondly, the thoroughly listed in Table 6 will be implemented, as per the plan of action given therein. 29
  • 33. 7. AnnexAnnex 1: Number of focal persons by partner institution No of Focal No. Institution Remark Person/s 1 Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) 14 2 Tigray Research Institute 1 3 Southern Agricultural Research Institute 1 NARS 4 Oromiya Agricultural Research Institute 3 5 Amhara Regional Agricultural Research Institute 1 6 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 1 Development 7 Climate Change Forum-Ethiopia (CCF-E) 1 support 8 National Meteorology Agency (NMA) 1 institutions 9 Extension Directorate, MoA 1 10 Adama University, Assela College of Agriculture 1 11 Jima University, College of Agriculture 1 12 Hawassa University, College of Agriculture 1 13 Arba Minch University 1 Knowledge 14 Andnet Secondary School (Assela) 1 institutions 15 Chilalo Terara Secondary School (Assela) 1 16 Hawas Preparatory School (Adama) 1 17 St. Joseph Preparatory School 1 18 Farmers Training Centres (FTCs) 10 Target beneficiaries Total 42Annex 2. Terms of Reference (ToR) for focal personnel 1. Set up Office/Desk (including physical facilities) for managing all CCA related matters in his/her duty station/institution. Establishing the long aspired agrometeorology /climate change research and advisory service in his/her respective centre is the target. 2. Prepare Baseline Information (data) together with the Target with respect to CCA mainstreaming that also helps to measure the difference after the project intervention, with ensuring the sustainability of the impact beyond the project life is in perspective. 3. Coordinate CCA mainstreaming activities across all core Research Processes/partners. The earliest entry point towards mainstreaming is to re-define the ONGOING GOVERNMNENT research and development activities for their sensitivity to climate change and expanding them to include the CCA issues whenever this is possible and logical. 4. Ensures the incorporation of CCA issues as a Variable or Treatment into the government funded NEW projects. 5. The Focal Personnel will ensure collection of data on key indicator variables on CCA mainstreaming project that could be analysed and translated into impacts, as well as for database building for sustenance of the impact, despite the project life is too short. 6. Reporting on quarterly basis, on the CCA project at his/her duty place to the Project Coordination Office (EIAR) as per the set Format. 7. Take a stock of the existing and envisioned global & national circumstances, possibilities and opportunities in and around his/her research/development institution and do all what is possible and within his/her reach in sustaining the CCA and its impact…Innovative approach. 8. Liaise BGA with the relevant research and development processes 9. Guiding the Observers of the research centre, strengthen weather data collection, archiving, processing and reporting, as well as strengthen ‘Weather Station maintenance, establishment and upgrading activities. 10. Keep BGA informed of the progresses, including any unexpected outcomes (be as it may the worst or best case scenario) with respect to CCA mainstreaming at his/her duty area. 11. Being within the framework of the project objectives and goal, prepare detailed annual work plan and divide among team members/participants for smooth and successful implementation of the project. 12. Assess and understand existing realities and identify knowledge gaps in CCA and present in the form of debate or seminars or publish for a follow up measure. 30
  • 34. 13. May build institutional capacity to host meetings/workshops and conferences on CCA mainstreaming and sustainability of the impact from the policy, science and technology perspectives. 14. Work for the excellences of the project outputs from own institution’s interest perspective. 15. Accountable for financial performance preparation and reporting as per the time speculated in the project document. 16. Provide guidance to the recruited technical personnel assigned to work in the project.Responsibility of the Project Secretariat & Biometrics, GIS and Agrometeorology Process 1. Provide technical assistance and inspire the Focal Personnel to discharge his/her responsibility 2. Transfer and reimburse due funds in time for carrying out the planed activities as per the agreed plan of actions and on the basis of accountabilities (reporting) for the previously transferred ones. 3. Organize capacity building/refresher training for Focal Personnel on regular basis (eg; trainings on CCA related proposal writing, M &E, data analyses and interpretation). 4. Plan and facilitate for participation of the Focal Personnel in the international, regional and national workshops/conferences/trainings 5. Regular monitoring and creation of every possible enabling environment for the personnel in the process of discharging their responsibility. 6. Recruit technical personnel for identified institutions that would work under the full guidance of the Focal Personnel. 31
  • 35. Annex 3: Structure of M.Sc. study in Climate Change and Development Duration: 2 Years (3 semesters) Eligibility: B.Sc. (Meteorology) or B.Sc. (Physics/Mathematics/Environmental science/Statistics) with meteorological background Semester-IS. Expected Credits Course Code Course TitleNo. Instructor L L/T C1. MHS-601 Atmospheric and Ocean Dynamics Dr. Rao/Prof 3 3 4 M.Jury 2. MHS-611 Advanced statistical methods in Guest ( EIAR)- 1 3 2 atmospheric science Dr. Girma Taye 3. MHS 621 Earth system modeling Dr. Rao 3 3 4 4 MHS-631 The science of climate change Guest/Dr. 3 3 4 Zewudu) 5 MHS -641 Lab Course-1: Computer Staff/Dr. Gulilat 2 3 3 Programming and Climate Modeling Total 12 18 17 Semester-IIS. Expected Credits Course Code Course TitleNo. Instructur L L/T C 1. MHS- 602 Climate change: Impact, Adaptation and Prof.M.Jury 2 3 3 Mitigation 2. MHS-612 Agro meteorology: Principle and EIAR 2 3 3 application of climate studies in (guest) agriculture 3. MHS-622 Hydrology: Principles and analysis Dr. Adane 2 3 3 4. MHS-632 Lab Course-2: Hydrological and Dr. Kassa 2 6 3 Agricultural Modeling 5. MHS-642 Research methods (Climate Changes) Dr. Rao 1 3 2 Total 9 18 14Semester- IIIS. No. Course Code Course Title Credit Hour 1. MHS-701 Major Thesis 9 2. MHS-711 Internship/Minor Thesis 6 Total 15Total Credits = 46 32
  • 36. Annex 4: Abstract of the paper entitled <The potential impacts of climatechange - maize farming system complex in Ethiopia: Towards retrofittingadaptation and mitigation options> Girma Mamo, Fikadu Getachew and Gizachew Legesse Agrometeorology Research Group, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR)AbstractA decrease in food supply caused by a variable and changing climate is one reason for thecurrent skyrocketing in food prices at global scale. For Ethiopia, results from different globalclimate models (GCMs) reveal an increasing rainfall trend in the next century, but with (lowconfidence), while temperature is increasing (high confidence): by 0.28oC per decade. Maize, atropical crop on which millions depend for their livelihoods, is among those crops responsive tothe change in climate. More challenging and uneasy to address involves an age old and poormaize farming practices that enhance green houses gases (GHGs) emission, including but notlimited to, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Concerns in reducingthe impact of poor agricultural practices like the inefficient application techniques of syntheticfertilizers, deforestation and soil erosion on global warming has led the Ethiopian government tocategorically adopt the program ‘lower emitting techniques’ under the strategy known as GreenGrowth Economy’ (CRGE) initiative that also becomes highly relevant if maize research anddevelopment effort is framed in this initiative. It is against this background of the bi-directionalclimate - maize farming complex that we found it appealing to analyze and map future climatechange, Ethiopia’s degree of vulnerability and impact of the changing climate, followed byidentification of maize based adaptation-mitigation options. The seasonal climate variabilityanalyses for two important maize research centers; Bako and Melkassa. Results reveal anaverage kiremt rainfall onset date for Bako to be on 112th days of year (DOY) or 22nd of April,with the rainy season ending on DOY 283 (October 10). Accordingly, Bako is characterized tohave a median 183 days of length of growing period (LGP), with the seasonal rainfall total of1240 mm. The 95% confidence limits for the true median length of rain season at Bako rangefrom 168 to 196 days and receiving more than 964 mm in 3 out of 4 years. The temperatureminima and maxima for the same station would be 26.5 and 15.3 degree Celsius during thegrowing season. An overall result confirms that Bako can afford maize cultivars with maturityperiod of 6 to 7 month. For Melkassa, the analytical results for seasonal rainfall features reflectthe rainfall onset date turning on DOY 178 or June 27, while end of season is DOY 273 (end ofSeptember). Accordingly, the LGP is 95 days with season median rainfall total of 503 mm, while540 mm is one that takes place in three out of four years. The prevailing temperature maximumof 27.0oC and minimum of 15.7oC characterizes the growing season. The future climate of thestudy sites were also projected, following the model validation work for temperature and rainfallpatterns. The relationship between the accumulated growth degree days (GDD) along thegrowing season and grain yield of Melkassa-1 revealed a good pattern correlation viz; a changein grain yield also tracking change in GDD curve. The corresponding higher GDD must havealso enhanced maize plant development, resulting in early maturation and therefore reducedgrain yield. At Bako, longer LGP and seasonal rainfall amount and higher amount ofaccumulated GDD is expected during the growing period, compared to that of Melkassa. Therelationship between GDD and grain yield of maize (BH660) shows similar trend, on the basis ofwhich possible adaptation options were drawn. On the other hand, the impact analyses of maize 33
  • 37. farming practices on climate change through the differential emissions of CO2 equivalent GHGsfrom three drivers (synthetic fertilizers, manure and incorporation of crop residues) for twobenchmark periods (2010 and 2030) illuminates an emission of 0.03 million tons of CO2equivalent GHGs in 2010 and 0.2 million in year 2030 for crop residue incorporation, whilemaize manure application results in emission of 0.18 million tons in 2010 and 0.5 million tons in2030. Similarly, 0.45 million tons in 2010 and 1.2 million tons in 2030 from the increased use ofsynthetic fertilizers were estimated. Ultimately some possible mitigation options were drawnwhich were also identified to be included in the CRGE. Overall, the key to learn is the futuretime would turn hardest to our maize researchers in taking advantages of the good seasons orstabilizing yields during bad seasons, which ever scenario might arise in any one year.Key words: Green house gases, business as usual, climate resilient green economy, loweremitting techniquesAnnex 5. Abstract of the paper entitled <Towards Mainstreaming ClimateChange Adaptation into Natural Resources Management Research: Key inFood Security Assurance and Sustainable Development Girma Mamo, Agro meteorologist Ethiopian Institute of Agric-Research (EIAR)AbstractEthiopia is characterized by an extraordinary landscape that ranges from the highland (coveringabout 44% of the total land mass) to the Denakil depression of 116 m.b.s.l. In between, there alsoexist large swaths of low and intermediate areas, both of which having varying extents ofpotential for agricultural development and multiple risks of climate and associated land resourcedegradation., including soil erosion due to unwise land tilling, salinity, as well as conversion ofswathes of forest lands in the process of expanding crop lands. When coupled with the recentlymuch in vogue ‘climate change’ issue that is confronting virtually every nation in the recenttimes, the challenge must be formidable to the communities of natural resources managementand food security attendants in Ethiopia. Best manifested by the changes in frequency andseverity of temperatures and rainfall, climate change in this context is defined as the long termshift from the average or increase in amplitude of occurrence of the same and many more otherclimate variables. The effort made on the other side of the scale to arrest this spiral of landdegradation and adapting the changing climate never compensate for the loss. This paper arguesthat mainstreaming climate change adaptation concepts and practices that converges andbalances all efforts to the level of both environmental and economic benefits is the panacea. Thepaper also discusses resources at hand on CCA, while providing account of the subject in a waythe best strategy that corrects the problem could be in place. This also points to the wake-up callto the soil and water research to systematically re-examine its research programs and projects,with the aim of identifying how best climate change adaptation could be mainstreamed intonatural resources technology generation, communication and impact slots. 34
  • 38. Annex 6. Farm level adaptation responses in maize to the highly likely climate change in EthiopiaClimate change related scenarios Most likely challenges/impacts Adaptation optionsRegions known for maize • Crops water requirements cannot be • Total irrigationproduction run out of the system met at any growth stage anddue to lack of rainfall (<250 mm) therefore maize production under • Specialization rain-fed farming is impossibleIrreversible shift in rain onset date • Planting window of long cycle • Modifying maize growth cycle cultivars befitting thefrom early to late maize cultivars narrowed, modified rain season (medium or short duration cultivars) • High yielding long cycle maize cultivars cannot be grown any longerEarly season cessation • Shortened length of growing period • Water harvesting for supplemental irrigation and increase implies shortened grain filling period water use efficiency (more yield per drop of water), and shriveled grain providing better condition for plants to grow. • Weather index based insurance scheme (transfer ones risk to the third party)Soil water deficit, evaporative • Maize production is possible, but • Water harvesting for supplemental irrigation at criticaldemand exceeds rainfall amounts rainfall insufficient to meet crop growth stages water requirement • Weather index based insurance scheme (partly, package) • Increasing water productivity (grain yield mm-1) through cultivar choice and improved soil water management practicesDeclining seasonal rainfall amount • Maize production is possible, but • Water harvesting for supplemental irrigation at critical rainfall insufficient to meet crop growth stages water requirement • Increasing water productivity (grain yield mm-1) through cultivar choice and improved soil water management practicesShrink in size of belg rainfall areas • Production areas in which belg and • Switch to the short cycle maize cultivars kiremt rains used to be merged with long cycle maize cultivars would be impossibleUnpredictable rains due to • Difficult to adopt fixed agronomic • Use seasonal rainfall forecast information from the forecastincreased variability in rain onset recommendations (date of sowing, communities for early warning and informed decisionsdate and extremes cultivars, planting density and • Weather index based insurance scheme fertilizers)Erratic distribution, extended dry • Reduced maize yield or total crop • Modifying maize growth cycle to ensure that plantsspells (once the season sets in) failure due to shortage of moisture at experience sufficient moisture during the critical stages. critical growth stages • Develop a suite of maize varieties (early to late maturing), so that the harvest is less vulnerable to stress at critical periods • Emphasize population breeding than pure line breedingTorrential storms over a short time • Rainfall exceeds infiltration capacity • Safe disposal of excess water (drainage), harvesting excess(days) of the soil, reduced stand water to use at times of deficit establishment, slow growth rateHeat load • Premature switchover from • Shift the temperature optima for crop growth through vegetative to reproductive stage breeding (required heat unit met earlier than usual) • Varieties with roots that can withstand attack by soil-borne pests and diseases • Resurgence of new pests and pathogens • Develop heat tolerant cultivars 35
  • 39. Annex 7: Poster used for advertising the project 36