Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat David. S. Battisti, et al. Science 323, 240 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1164363 The following resources related to this article are available online at www.sciencemag.org (this information is current as of January 8, 2009 ): Updated information and services, including high-resolution figures, can be found in the online version of this article at: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5911/240 Supporting Online Material can be found at: Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 8, 2009 http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5911/240/DC1 This article cites 9 articles, 2 of which can be accessed for free: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5911/240#otherarticles This article appears in the following subject collections: Atmospheric Science http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/collection/atmos Information about obtaining reprints of this article or about obtaining permission to reproduce this article in whole or in part can be found at: http://www.sciencemag.org/about/permissions.dtlScience (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published weekly, except the last week in December, by theAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. Copyright2009 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved. The title Science is aregistered trademark of AAAS.
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This work was partially supported by the Materials 19. S. Neukirch, G. van der Heijden, J. Elast. 69, 41 Research Science and Engineering Center under NSF embodied in the adhesive patterns that can be (2002). award no. DMR-0213805. We acknowledge the use of the created at will. Additionally, they may be used as 20. M. M. Nicolson, Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 45, 288 facilities at the Harvard Center for Nanoscale Systems an efficient adhesive or capture-and-release sys- (1949). supported by NSF award no. ECS-0335765. B.P. is 21. This is a simplification of the actual geometry of the tem, provide the foundation for hierarchically grateful to the Fulbright Visiting Scholar Program for pillars that are attached to a substrate at one end and assembled structural materials, and be used to financial support. free at the other. Yet, the case of free pillars that can induce chiral flow patterns in the ambient flow and bend, twist, and adhere is sufficient to understand the Supporting Online Material thus be applied for enhanced mixing and directed conditions when helical structures can arise. In the www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5911/237/DC1 experimental setup, however, it is this broken symmetry Movies S1 and S2 transport at the micron and submicron scale. These induced by the attachment that leads to the observed structures may serve as the seed for the spontane- complex braided structures of generalized helices of 8 September 2008; accepted 21 November 2008 ous breaking of symmetry on large scales, just as variable pitch and radius. 10.1126/science.1165607 Historical Warnings of kets (1). Coping with the short-run challenge of food price volatility is daunting. But the longer- term challenge of avoiding a perpetual food crisis Future Food Insecurity with under conditions of global warming is far more serious. History shows that extreme seasonal heat Unprecedented Seasonal Heat can be detrimental to regional agricultural pro- ductivity and human welfare and to international David. S. Battisti1 and Rosamond L. Naylor2 agricultural markets when policy-makers inter- vene to secure domestic food needs. Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm We calculated the difference between pro- incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models jected and historical seasonally averaged temper- to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics atures (2) throughout the world by using output by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from from the 23 global climate models contributing to 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food (IPCC) 2007 scientific synthesis (3). Our results systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long- show that it is highly likely (greater than 90% term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation. 1 he food crisis of 2006–2008 demonstrates pled with disruptions in agricultural supplies Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, T the fragile nature of feeding the world’s human population. Rapid growth in de- mand for food, animal feed, and biofuels, cou- caused by poor weather, crop disease, and export restrictions in key countries like India and Ar- gentina, have created chaos in international mar- Seattle, WA 98195–1640, USA. E-mail: battisti@washington. edu 2Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305–6055, USA. E-mail: email@example.com 9 JANUARY 2009 VOL 323 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org
REPORTSchance) that growing season temperatures by the driven growth in demand in the future, and thus looked (6). Experimental and crop-based modelsend of the 21st century will exceed even the most to achieve food security? for major grains in these regions show directextreme seasonal temperatures recorded from The IPCC concluded that elevated green- yield losses in the range of 2.5 to 16% for every1900 to 2006 for most of the tropics and sub- house gas concentrations are likely to lead to a 1°C increase in seasonal temperature (7, 8) [sup-tropics. Presently there are more than 3 billion general drying of the subtropics by the end of this porting online material (SOM)]. Large additionalpeople living in the tropics and subtropics, many century, creating widespread stress on agriculture losses are expected from sea level rise and de-of whom live on under $2 per day and depend (3, 5). Although much attention is focused on creased soil moisture caused by higher averageprimarily on agriculture for their livelihoods (4). threats of increased droughts in subtropical agri- temperatures (3, 5, 9). Despite the general per-With growing season temperatures rising beyond culture, the potential impacts of seasonal average ception that agriculture in temperate latitudes willhistorical bounds, the inevitable question arises: temperature changes in both the tropics and sub- benefit from increased seasonal heat and supplyWill people in these regions have sufficient ac- tropics, which are expected to be large relative to food to deficit areas, even mid-latitude crops willcess to food to meet population- and income- the historical range of variation, are often over- likely suffer at very high temperatures in the ab- sence of adaptation (10). Global climate change thus presents widespread risks of food insecurity.Fig. 1. Hypothetical It is conceivable that the warmest summersdistributions of summer during the past century will represent the norm byseason temperatures the end of this century (Fig. 1A). But what if thefrom 1900–2000 and average future seasonal temperature were to2080–2100. x axis indi- Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 8, 2009cates seasonal temper- exceed the hottest seasons on record (Fig. 1B)?ature; y axis, probability Entering a whole new realm of high seasonallyof occurrence (number averaged temperatures, not just multiday heatof years in the century). waves, will surely challenge the global popula-(A) The highest growing- tion’s ability to produce adequate food in the fu-season temperature of the 20th century represents the median seasonal temperature by the end of ture or even to cope physically with chronic heatthe 21st century. (B) Future temperatures are out-of-bounds hot: that is, it is certain that the growing stress, unless major adaptations are made.season temperature at the end of the 21st century will exceed the hottest growing season ever To put Fig. 1A in perspective, recall the re-observed. cord hot summer in Western Europe in 2003Fig. 2. Histogram of summer (June, July, and August) averagedtemperatures (blue) observed from 1900 to 2006 and (red) projectedfor 2090 for (A) France, (B) Ukraine, and (C) the Sahel. Temperature isplotted as the departure from the long-term (1900–2006) climatologicalmean (21). The data are normalized to represent 100 seasons in eachhistogram. In (A), for example, the hottest summer on record in France(2003) is 3.6°C above the long-term climatology. The average summertemperature in 2090 is projected to be 3.7°C greater than the long-termclimatological average, and there is a small chance it could be 9.8°Chigher. www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 323 9 JANUARY 2009 241
REPORTS when an estimated 52,000 people died between centered in France and northern Italy, where over tunately, by the end of the century, summer heat June and August from heat stress, making it one 30,000 people perished from heat-related causes like that of 2003 is likely to be the norm for the of the deadliest climate-related disasters in (11, 12). In France, the mean summer temper- country (Fig. 2A). Western history (11). The most intense seasonal ature (June to August) was 3.6°C (3.5 standard Severe heat in the summer of 2003 affected temperature and the majority of fatalities were deviations) above the long-term mean. Unfor- food production as well as human lives in Eu- Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 8, 2009 Fig. 3. Likelihood (in percent) that future summer average temper- there is greater than a 90% chance that the summer-averaged tem- atures will exceed the highest summer temperature observed on record perature will exceed the highest temperature on record (1900–2006) (A) for 2050 and (B) for 2090. For example, for places shown in red (22).242 9 JANUARY 2009 VOL 323 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org
REPORTSrope. Record high daytime and nighttime temper- tered the world grain market at a time when Most worrisome for the Sahel is that averageatures over most of the summer growing season import demand was rising rapidly in Asia be- growing season temperatures by the end of thisreduced leaf and grain-filling development of key cause of expanding populations, low-yield growth, century, and even earlier for some parts of thecrops such as maize, fruit trees, and vineyards; and (in the same year) weak monsoon rains (15). region, are expected to exceed the hottest seasonsaccelerated crop ripening and maturity by 10 to Governments in several developing countries, recorded during the past century (Fig. 2C). Such20 days; caused livestock to be stressed; and particularly in Asia, feared political instability heat will compound food insecurity caused byresulted in reduced soil moisture and increased with rising grain prices and implemented food variable rainfall in the region, and it will increasewater consumption in agriculture (5, 13) (SOM). self-sufficiency (minimum trade) policies that the incidence of agricultural droughts (as op-Italy experienced a record drop in maize yields of remained in effect for decades. posed to meteorological droughts) defined by36% from a year earlier, whereas in France maize A major lesson from this case and the recent elevated evapotranspiration, low soil moisture,and fodder production fell by 30%, fruit harvests food crisis is that regional disruptions can easily and high rates of water runoff from hard pan soilsdeclined by 25%, and wheat harvests (which had become global in character. Countries often re- when it rains. Even today, temperatures in thenearly reached maturity by the time the heat set spond to production and price volatility by Sahel can be so high that the rain evaporatesin) declined by 21% (5). These production short- restricting trade or pursuing large grain purchases before it hits the ground (18). New bounds offalls hurt the region’s farmers economically, al- in international markets—both of which can have heat stress will make the region’s population farthough global food trade, subsidies, and insurance destabilizing effects on world prices and global more vulnerable to poverty and hunger-relatedcompensation helped to avert serious price hikes or food security. In the future, heat stress on crops deaths and will likely drive many people out ofreductions in regional or global food security. and livestock will occur in an environment of agriculture altogether, thus expanding migrant Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 8, 2009 By comparison, extremely high summer- steadily rising demand for food and animal feed and refugee populations.averaged temperature in the former Soviet Union worldwide, making markets more vulnerable to These historical examples illustrate the pro-(USSR) in 1972 contributed to disruptions in sharp price swings. High and variable prices are found damage that can be caused (or in the nearworld cereal markets and food security that most damaging to poor households that spend the future may be caused) by high seasonal heat, butremain a legacy in the minds of food policy majority of their incomes on staple foods. they also represent short-run impacts. We choseanalysts to this day. What sticks in most people’s Another region at risk from higher temper- France (2003) and Ukraine (1972) as examplesminds is the towering price spike between 1972 atures is the Sahel, where crop and livestock pro- specifically because temperature deviations wereand 1974 that occurred within a long-term trend duction play an essential role in the region’s large in comparison to precipitation deviationsdecline in grain prices during a 50-year period economy, employing roughly 60% of the active relative to the observational record. In the Sahelafter World War II. Nominal prices for wheat— population and contributing 40% to gross nation- case, drought and heat stress are tightly coupled,the crop most affected by the USSR weather al product (17). The Sahel suffered a prolonged with heat stress becoming increasingly importantshock—rose from $60 to $208 per metric ton in drought from the late 1960s to the early 1990s during the past decade. The threats to food se-international markets between the first quarters of that caused crop and livestock productivity to curity and human lives caused by unusually high1972 and 1974, and real prices more than tripled plummet, and which contributed to countless seasonal temperature in France, Ukraine, and the(14). Although extreme summer averaged tem- hunger-related deaths and unprecedented rates of Sahel in the 20th century were ameliorated whenperature in the USSR was among several factors migration from north to south, from rural to ur- the extreme temperatures subsided, when mar-contributing to the international price spike, this ban areas, and from landlocked to coastal coun- kets balanced acute regional food deficits withclimate event was largely responsible for setting tries (18). Although the Sahel’s climate disaster food surpluses from other locations, and whenthe dynamics in motion (15). was largely one of extended drought, the specter farmers autonomously adapted their practices or The prolonged hot period in the summer of of high and rising temperature lurks in the back- migrated. The future, however, could be entirely1972 in southeast Ukraine and southwest Russia— ground. Year-to-year temperature variability in different. If growing season temperatures by themajor breadbaskets in the former USSR—ranks the Sahel has been low during the past century end of the 21st century remain chronically highin the top 10% of temperature anomalies over the (particularly in comparison with temperate coun- and greatly exceed the hottest temperature onobservational period 1900–2006. Summer tem- tries like France and Ukraine), but the growing record throughout the much of the world, not justperatures in this region ranged from 2° to 4°C season temperature has been very high, with for these three examples, then global foodabove the long-term mean. The vast majority of long-term daily averaged summer temperature security will be severely jeopardized unless largenews reports at the time focused on drought as ranging from 25°C in the south to 35°C in the adaptation investments are made.opposed to extreme heat, although fully one-third north. Moreover, temperatures have trended up- Climate model projections from the IPCCof summers in this area over the past 100 years ward since 1980. Despite rains returning to some 2007 assessment suggest that this outcome iswere drier than in 1972 (only 0.5 standard de- locations of the Sahel during the past 15 years, indeed very likely (Fig. 3). Figure 3A shows that,viations below the long-term mean). A peak of the growing season for staple crops has been as early as 2050, the median projected summerhigh temperatures exceeding 30°C set in during reduced, maize yields have remained far below temperature is expected to be higher than anyJuly and August during key crop development varietal potential, and millet and sorghum yields year on record in most tropical areas. By the endstages for wheat and coarse grains, causing a continue to stagnate (18). Hundreds of thousands of the century, it is very likely (greater than 90%13% decline in grain production from a year of children and infants in the region still die each chance) that a large proportion of tropical andearlier for the USSR as a whole (16) (SOM). year from hunger-related causes, and malnu- subtropical Asia and Africa will experienceSuch high summer temperatures in the region trition contributes to long-term mental and phys- unprecedented seasonal average temperature, aswill likely be the norm in 2050 and well below ical disabilities. Over recent decades most of the will parts of South, Central, and North Americathe median of projected summer temperature by region’s poorest households have lost their live- and the Middle East (Fig. 3B). High seasonalthe end of the century (Fig. 2B). stock or other assets; they remain net consumers temperatures beyond what has been experi- The USSR had long been known for its of food and struggle to purchase staples even enced during the past century will thus becomevariable climate and crop yields. What changed when they are available in the market. These widespread.in 1972 was the Soviets’ unexpected intervention households farm at an extreme disadvantage ir- Three important conclusions can be drawnin international markets to compensate for antic- respective of climate change, with limited access from these projections. First, tropical countriesipated crop shortfalls—a marked shift from their to improved crop varieties, seed supplies, fertil- experience less year-to-year temperature ex-earlier policy of internal adjustments through the izers, credit, and irrigation and transportation in- tremes than do temperate countries and thereforeculling of livestock herds (16). The USSR en- frastructure (19). will be the first to experience unprecedented heat www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 323 9 JANUARY 2009 243
REPORTS stress because of global climate change. By the longer-term needs in the face of climate change 16. N. Dronin, E. Bellinger, Climate Dependence and Food end of the century, however, the seasonal grow- (1). History provides some guide to the magni- Problems in Russia 1900-1990 (Central European Univ. Press, New York, 2005). ing temperature is likely to exceed the hottest tude and effects of high seasonal averaged tem- 17. World Bank, Africa Development Indicators 2007 (World season on record in temperate countries (e.g., perature projected for the future. Ignoring climate Bank, Washington, DC, 2007). equivalent to what France experienced in 2003), projections at this stage will only result in the 18. S. Kandji, L. Verchot, J. Mackensen, Climate Change and and the future for agriculture in these regions will worst form of triage. Variability in the Sahel Region: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Agricultural Sector (United Nations become equally daunting. Environmental Programme and World Agroforestry Second, the projected seasonal average tem- Center, Nairobi, Kenya, 2006). References and Notes perature represents the median, not the tail, of the 1. R. Naylor, W. Falcon, Boston Rev. 33, 13 (2008). 19. T. Jayne, in The Transformation of Agri-Food Systems: climate distribution and should therefore be 2. We approximated the main growing season to be Globalization, Supply Chains, and Smallholder Farmers, E. B. McCullough et al., Eds. (Earthscan, London, 2008). considered the norm for the future. Indeed, the summer in the extratropics. Hence north of the equator 20. S. Takeda, M. Matsuoka, Nat. Rev. Genet. 9, 444 (2008). probability exceeds 90% that by the end of the we used the three-month average temperature June through August (and for south of the equator we 21. To calculate the projected climate for 2090, we first century, the summer average temperature will used December through February), periods that added the observed temperature departures (in blue) to exceed the hottest summer on record throughout broadly capture growing season conditions for many crops. the change in the summer temperature, taken to be the mean summer temperature for 2080–2100 minus that the tropics and subtropics (Fig. 3B). Because 3. IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report: Synthesis, published online 17 November 2007, www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4- for 1980–2000, simulated by each of the 23 climate these regions are home to about half the world’s models from the IPCC AR4 forced by the “middle of the syr.htm. population, the human consequences of global 4. World Bank, World Development Report 2008: road” emission scenario, A1B. We then combined the climate change could be enormous. Agriculture for Development (World Bank, Washington, 23 × 107 projections to create the probability distribution function for summer temperature in 2090 (see SOM). Downloaded from www.sciencemag.org on January 8, 2009 Lastly, with growing season temperatures in DC, 2007). 5. W. Easterling et al., in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, 22. The probability distribution of future summer excess of the hottest years on record for many temperature is calculated as described in (21). Here, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, M. Parry et al., Eds. countries, the stress on crops and livestock will (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 2007), p. 976. summer is defined north of the equator as the average become global in character. It will be extremely 6. D. Lobell, M. Burke, Environ. Res. Lett. 3, 034007 temperature from June through August and south of the difficult to balance food deficits in one part of the (2008). equator as December through February. In the immediate 7. S. Peng et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101, 9971 (2004). vicinity of the equator, values in Fig. 3 are qualitatively world with food surpluses in another, unless ma- insensitive to the choice of months that define the season. 8. D. B. Lobell et al., Science 319, 607 (2008). jor adaptation investments are made soon to de- 23. This work was made possible by grants from the NSF 9. B. Barnabas et al., Plant Cell Environ. 31, 11 (2008). velop crop varieties that are tolerant to heat and 10. W. Schlenker, M. J. Roberts, Rev. Agric. Econ. 28, 391 (grant SES 0433679) and the Tamaki Foundation. We heat-induced water stress and irrigation systems (2006). thank M. Baker, M. Burke, W. Falcon, D. Kennedy, S.-H. Kim, D. Lobell, R. Nicholas, K. Niemer Johnson, suitable for diverse agroecosystems. The genet- 11. J. Larsen, Earth Policy Institute, published online 28 July K. Rennert, and D. Vimont for comments and/or ics, genomics, breeding, management, and engi- 2006 (www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2006/Update56.htm). 12. P. Pirard et al., Eurosurveillance 10, 554 (2005). assistance on the draft. neering capacity for such adaptation can be 13. A. De Bono et al., “Environmental alert bulletin: Impacts developed globally but will be costly and will of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe” (United Nations Supporting Online Material www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/323/5911/240/DC1 require political prioritization (5, 8, 9, 20). Nation- Environmental Programme, Nairobi, Kenya, 2004). 14. International Financial Statistics Database, “United States Materials and Methods al and international agricultural investments have SOM Text Gulf ports wheat prices,” published online July 2008, been waning in recent decades and remain in- www.imfstatistics.org. References and Notes sufficient to meet near-term food needs in the 15. D. Hathaway et al., Brookings Pap. Econ. Act. 1, 63 7 August 2008; accepted 2 December 2008 world’s poorest countries, to say nothing of (1974). 10.1126/science.1164363 Foraminiferal Isotope Evidence of increased N fixation would have raised the N inventory of the ocean during the LGM, thereby strengthening the ocean’s biological pump and Reduced Nitrogen Fixation in contributing to the observed reduction in at- mospheric CO2 during the ice age (1–5). the Ice Age Atlantic Ocean N fixation produces oceanic fixed N with d15N values between –2 and 0 per mil (‰), close to that of atmospheric N2 (6, 7). Sedimentary H. Ren,1* D. M. Sigman,1 A. N. Meckler,2 B. Plessen,3 R. S. Robinson,4 Y. Rosenthal,5 G. H. Haug6,7 denitrification removes nitrate (NO3–) from the ocean with minimal isotope discrimination (8). Fixed nitrogen (N) is a limiting nutrient for algae in the low-latitude ocean, and its oceanic In contrast, water column denitrification leaves inventory may have been higher during ice ages, thus helping to lower atmospheric CO2 during residual nitrate enriched in 15N that raises the those intervals. In organic matter within planktonic foraminifera shells in Caribbean Sea sediments, d15N of mean ocean nitrate above that of newly we found that the 15N/14N ratio from the last ice age is higher than that from the current interglacial, indicating a higher nitrate 15N/14N ratio in the Caribbean thermocline. This change 1 and other species-specific differences are best explained by less N fixation in the Atlantic during Department of Geosciences, Guyot Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. 2Geological and Planetary Sciences the last ice age. The fixation decrease was most likely a response to a known ice age reduction in Division, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA ocean N loss, and it would have worked to balance the ocean N budget and to curb ice 91125, USA. 3Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam, Deutsches age–interglacial change in the N inventory. GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Potsdam 14473, Germany. 4 Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI 02882, USA. 5Institute of Marine and he sources of fixed N to the ocean are from modern denitrification zones show clear N T Coastal Sciences and Department of Geological Sciences, terrestrial runoff, atmospheric deposition, isotopic evidence of reduced water column de- Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA. 6Geolo- and, most important, marine N fixation. nitrification during the Last Glacial Maximum gical Institute, Department of Earth Sciences, ETH Zürich, Zürich 8092, Switzerland. 7DFG Leibniz Center for Earth The main sinks are sedimentary denitrification, (LGM) relative to the current interglacial (Holo- Surface Process and Climate Studies, Institute for Geosciences, mostly in continental shelf sediments, and water cene) (1, 2). The history of other processes, es- Potsdam University, Potsdam D-14476, Germany. column denitrification in the eastern tropical pecially N fixation, has proven more difficult to *To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: Pacific and the Arabian Sea. Sediment records reconstruct. Decreased denitrification and/or firstname.lastname@example.org 9 JANUARY 2009 VOL 323 SCIENCE www.sciencemag.org