The fact is, in the wake of the tech boom of the 1990s—and inspired by the success of Apple as well as renegade start-ups like eBay, Napster, and Google—corporations of all sizes are already sold on the need to inject the “soft” stuff of creativity, innovation, and collaboration into their businesses. But putting everyone in open work spaces, urging employees to play Ping-Pong and be courageous, and exhorting executives to find their inner maverick in an effort to “Innovate or die!” or “Fail forward fast!” are meaningless moves unless they come with specific instructions and fit within a specific strategy.When clients come to me, they can feel that they are spinning in place. Often they say something like this: “Okay, we get it: creativity in the workplace is important. Collaboration is a good thing. Innovation leads the way to growth and differentiation. Now, tell us how we go about doing those things in specific steps. Show us how we can do this and still meet earnings expectations for next quarter. Give us a way to nurture the free flow of ideas that doesn’t waste time, talent, and money. Bottom line—show us exactly what we need to know and how to implement it in our organization.”
The Four Forces of Change are resources, technology, demographics, and governance. I will show you how to familiarize yourself with them in order to get a big-picture perspective on any challenge you may face. Understand how they work together to drive change, and you will be able not only to avert crises but also to uncover ideas and opportunities for your future along the way.Current trends are not the purview of a futurist anyhow. Our concern is with the deep, structural forces that are constant and that cast a longer shadow on the future. In my work as a futurist, I have sought to reduce change to its most elemental components, and have come up with the Four Forces Model. Like hydrogen, nitrogen, carbon, and sulfur are the four building blocks of all life forms, resources, technology, demographics, and governance are the four building blocks of all change. These forces generally move more slowly than and have a permanent effect. Because we understand the relationship among the Four Forces – [PICTURE] -- , we also understand that the changes they bring about occur in a fairly predictable manner. What we can’t predict are its outcomes.
Minnesota economy: Iron Ore, Timber, GrainHard red spring wheatRailroads, banks, and mills sprung up to support industryMillers invented new technique to produce really fine flour => drew higher prices and made Mpls leading flour producer in U.S. Prosperity => schools, parks, hospitals, philanthropyCargill helped spearhead growth into international markets, helped to export grains to post-war EuropeFutures trading: a gentlemen’s agreement to deliver a certain amount of wheat during a certain upcoming month. “Open Outcry” auction system: Offer, counter-offer, then a nod Centralized system for farmers to know whether the price they were getting for their grain was fair or not.Purpose: promote fair trade of agricultural riches within a national and international marketplacePIT (game): Looking for a sure winner in the hot commodities market? Pit, the fast-paced card game from Parker Brothers, has been a bullish performer since its introduction way back in 1904. With all the ups and downs, desperate deals, and nonstop action of an actual trading floor, this lively game offers great fun without risking the family fortune. The rules are simple: Deal the cards, wait for the opening bell, scream and trade like crazy, be the first to corner a specific market (nine cards of the same suit), and ring the closing bell. Sounds pretty realistic, doesn't it? Once you've got the basic game mastered, try throwing Bull and Bear cards into the mix--that's when things get really interesting!In the fall of 1881, just one year after Minneapolis surpassed St. Louis as the nation's leading producer of flour, twenty-one prominent businessmen met in the basement of a fledging bank to create one of the Mill City's most enduring commercial enterprises. Known originally as the Minneapolis Chamber of Commerce, the Minneapolis Grain Exchange provided a market for most of the grains grown in the rich, dark soil of the Upper Midwest, particularly the much-prized spring wheat. Throughout the decades, buyers and sellers on the trading floor engaged in elaborate rituals that helped move farmer's grain to the consumer's table. As its members traded thousands, then millions, then billions of dollars in cash grains and futures, the exchange grew into one of the premier grain markets in the world. It's been 125 years since the city's first generation of business leaders--millers and manufacturers, bankers and railroad men--founded the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. What began as an essential element in the making of modern Minneapolis, as well as personal and philanthropic fortune, continues to play a vital role in the city's and the region's economic success.
Manipulating your brain to Think Like a Futurist: L-R-L
Mixing it up
Strategy: depends on who you are and where you’re going….
A structured process
What everyone wants…
Connecting the dots:
The idea bears repeating: the work of the futurist is to make your work smarter and more efficient, to offer a discipline and a structure to help you see into the future and align your company’s goals with what is coming. By understanding change, you’re able to lead change—again, no matter what economy the pundits say we’re experiencing. the bottom line is this: there are laws and mechanics of change that remain constant, no matter what you call the latest thinking. It is the goal of this book to make seeing into your corporate future plain and practical—and a whole lot more effective than looking into a crystal ball.
Think Like a Futurist: Innovating for Tomorrow's Workforce
Innovating for Tomorrow’sWorkforce CECILY SOMMERS
65% OF TODAY’S GRADE SCHOOL KIDS WILLEND UP AT JOBS THAT HAVEN’T BEENINVENTED YET.United States Department of LaborFuturework : Trends and Challenges for Workforce in the 21st Century(1999)
WHAT’S HAPPENING IN EDUCATION• Disintermediation• Open information, digitized classrooms• Experiential learning – Virtual studios – Global cohorts – Tangible computing• Gamification• Project performance and portfolios of skills valued over traditional assessments