Sustainability and the Four Forces of Change

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Keynote presentation made by Cecily Sommers at the 2nd Annual Business and Sustainability Conference, May 5, 2011. Discussion of sustainability in the context of the Four Forces of Change.

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  • HOW YOU THINK is as important as what you think!Candle lit in a dark room vs. 3 candles in a bright roomClear and present danger (brains wired for alarm)Small part of our brain programmed for the futureLarge part focused on NOW!We haven't gotten the knack of focusing on the future
  • Four Factors for risk AppreciationDeadline-driven focus (shame of it, BUT the work is happening in the background until it's time to produce)FUTURE thinking must be intentionalLaser-like efficiency in execution BECAUSE you've taken the time out to think it through!Separation of functions:
  • Global warming isn't bad news for everybody. In Greenland, the big melt could mean a flood of new revenue from mineral and oil deposits— previously trapped under ice. Flush with prospects, the locals are talking about making a final break from their benevolent colonizer, Denmark. Call it the Thaw Revolution.http://outside.away.com/outside/culture/200908/greenland-global-warming-1.html
  • With fish as witnesses, the president of Maldives and his Cabinet wore scuba gear and used hand signals Saturday at an underwater meeting to highlight the threat climate change poses to the archipelago nation.The Maldives declaration will be presented at a U.N. summit on climate change in December.The meeting, chaired by President Mohamed Nasheed, took place around a table about 16 feet (5 meters) underwater, according to the president's Web site. Bubbles ascended from the face masks the president and the Cabinet wore, and fish swam around them.http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/10/17/maldives.underwater.meeting/
  • Global warming isn't bad news for everybody. In Greenland, the big melt could mean a flood of new revenue from mineral and oil deposits— previously trapped under ice. Flush with prospects, the locals are talking about making a final break from their benevolent colonizer, Denmark. Call it the Thaw Revolution.http://outside.away.com/outside/culture/200908/greenland-global-warming-1.html
  • Global warming isn't bad news for everybody. In Greenland, the big melt could mean a flood of new revenue from mineral and oil deposits— previously trapped under ice. Flush with prospects, the locals are talking about making a final break from their benevolent colonizer, Denmark. Call it the Thaw Revolution.http://outside.away.com/outside/culture/200908/greenland-global-warming-1.html
  • Global warming isn't bad news for everybody. In Greenland, the big melt could mean a flood of new revenue from mineral and oil deposits— previously trapped under ice. Flush with prospects, the locals are talking about making a final break from their benevolent colonizer, Denmark. Call it the Thaw Revolution.http://outside.away.com/outside/culture/200908/greenland-global-warming-1.html
  • The 2010 US Census will count more than 300 million adults and children living in about 120 million homes – the world’s third largest nation. That Census will find a slowly growing society, but a huge consumer marketplace so complex and multi-faceted that it is no longer relevant or helpful to talk about “average Americans”The 2010 US Census will count more than 300 million adults and children living in about 120 million homes – the world’s third largest nation. That Census will find a slowly growing society, but a huge consumer marketplace so complex and multi-faceted that it is no longer relevant or helpful to talk about “average Americans”Here are some of the top trends for 2010:Decreasing household mobility, but increasing numbers of people moving seasonallyMore self-employed or independent contractors, but fewer full-time employeesMarried with kids, nearing one in five households is becoming a niche marketWomen, now 51% of adults, may soon become a majority of household headsNo race or ethnic category is the majority in our two largest states: CA & TXNumbers of people entering their peak earning years (45 to 54) are decliningWhite, non-Hispanics: soon a minority of children, but the vast majority of retireesRising grandparent power along with more multi-generational householdsWorkforce declines in Northeast & Midwest may encourage more immigrationWe are edging closer to a majority of children being born to unmarried women
  • Global warming isn't bad news for everybody. In Greenland, the big melt could mean a flood of new revenue from mineral and oil deposits— previously trapped under ice. Flush with prospects, the locals are talking about making a final break from their benevolent colonizer, Denmark. Call it the Thaw Revolution.http://outside.away.com/outside/culture/200908/greenland-global-warming-1.html
  • CHINAEmpire ascending (but not through military power)commercial imperatives give way to overseas expansion that no one quite plannedForeign Direct InvestmentScads of it in sub-saharan Africa, but also more than 1/2 in AsiaTrade begins with the purchase of commodities then to assets then to ports, railroads, factories then next to send labor, etc. BUT: the law of unintended consequences plays a very big role
  • Global warming isn't bad news for everybody. In Greenland, the big melt could mean a flood of new revenue from mineral and oil deposits— previously trapped under ice. Flush with prospects, the locals are talking about making a final break from their benevolent colonizer, Denmark. Call it the Thaw Revolution.http://outside.away.com/outside/culture/200908/greenland-global-warming-1.html
  • Coke’s success in turning the ship is the result of investment in three core areas: 1) business planning, 2) innovation, and 3) partnerships. All three are evident in the most recent executions by the company, including The PlantBottle, a partially bio-plastic bottle that is up to 30% plant material and 100% recyclable. The introduction of Truvia in some of its drinks, a natural, no-calorie sweetener co-developed with Cargill. And through an engagement with Greenpeace, Coca-Cola recently committed to eliminate the use of hydrofluorocarbon gases in all its new vending machines and coolers by 2015.  
  • Coke’s success in turning the ship is the result of investment in three core areas: 1) business planning, 2) innovation, and 3) partnerships. All three are evident in the most recent executions by the company, including The PlantBottle, a partially bio-plastic bottle that is up to 30% plant material and 100% recyclable. The introduction of Truvia in some of its drinks, a natural, no-calorie sweetener co-developed with Cargill. And through an engagement with Greenpeace, Coca-Cola recently committed to eliminate the use of hydrofluorocarbon gases in all its new vending machines and coolers by 2015.  
  • Coke’s success in turning the ship is the result of investment in three core areas: 1) business planning, 2) innovation, and 3) partnerships. All three are evident in the most recent executions by the company, including The PlantBottle, a partially bio-plastic bottle that is up to 30% plant material and 100% recyclable. The introduction of Truvia in some of its drinks, a natural, no-calorie sweetener co-developed with Cargill. And through an engagement with Greenpeace, Coca-Cola recently committed to eliminate the use of hydrofluorocarbon gases in all its new vending machines and coolers by 2015.  
  • Anyone drive an electric car today?1979: Iranian Revolution – energy policy; Nixon had said hydrogen car would be to market by 1995..
  • Dream MLK I have a dream Committed life March L-R-L Close your eyes, deep breath what's your dream? I want you to have that! Proprietary Territory Contact info
  • Sustainability and the Four Forces of Change

    1. 1. The Four Forces of Change<br />Looking Forward:Opportunities in an Open World<br />Cecily Sommers<br />May 5, 2011<br />
    2. 2. the four forces of change<br />SUSTAINABILITYBrundtland Commission of the United Nations, 1987 <br />Development that "meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs." <br />
    3. 3. Trends<br />GOVERNANCE<br />DEMOGRAPHICS<br />4 Forces<br />TECHNOLOGY<br />RESOURCES<br />the four forces of change<br />
    4. 4. CHANGE<br />AGENT<br />GOVERNANCE<br />DEMOGRAPHICS<br />TECHNOLOGY<br />RESOURCES<br />the four forces of change<br />
    5. 5. FUTURIST<br />the four forces of change<br />
    6. 6. Remembering the future<br />Right Hemisphere<br />Left Hemisphere<br />Imagery<br />Language<br />Learning, Memory<br />Motivation & Emotion<br />Senses <br />Autonomic System: Pain, Arousal<br />the four forces of change<br />
    7. 7. Agenda<br />L: KNOW<br />R: NEW<br />L: DO<br />the four forces of change<br />the antidote<br />
    8. 8. PART I: KNOW<br />Playing to long-term needs and opportunities<br />
    9. 9. Chip<br />Dale<br />TheFour Forces of Change<br />
    10. 10. markets<br />law<br />governance<br />demographics<br />technology<br />resources<br />the four forces of change<br />four forces<br />
    11. 11. RESOURCES<br />
    12. 12. DRIVERS:<br />Climate<br />Ocean<br />Space<br />Energy<br />Minerals<br />Water<br />Land<br />Food<br />Animals<br />Habitat<br />Forest<br />Resources<br />Four Forces<br />© Cecily Sommers, 2011<br />
    13. 13. the four forces of change<br />
    14. 14. the four forces of change<br />
    15. 15. the four forces of change<br />four forces_resources<br />
    16. 16. the four forces of change<br />four forces_resources<br />
    17. 17. markets<br />law<br />INTEGRATION<br />TRENDS<br />water<br />food<br />energy<br />ISSUES<br />resources<br />the four forces of change<br />four forces<br />
    18. 18. TECHNOLOGY<br />
    19. 19. DRIVERS:<br />Genetics<br />Robotics<br />Information<br />Nanotechnology<br />Health care<br />Education<br />Collaboration<br />Virtual reality<br />Games<br />Telephony<br />Manufacturing<br />Infrastructure<br />Technology<br />Four Forces<br />© Cecily Sommers, 2011<br />
    20. 20.
    21. 21. markets<br />law<br />health<br />communications<br />robotics<br />energy<br />infrastructure<br />technology<br />the four forces of change<br />
    22. 22. DEMOGRAPHICS<br />
    23. 23. DRIVERS:<br />6.1 B in 2000<br />9B in 2050<br />Developing ++<br />Industrial ---<br />Immigration<br />Multi-cultural<br />Multi-lingual<br />Nationalism<br />Conflict<br />Capital formation<br />Demographics<br />Four Forces<br />© Cecily Sommers, 2011<br />
    24. 24. the four forces of change<br />
    25. 25. the four forces of change<br />four forces_demographics<br />
    26. 26. markets<br />law<br />mortality<br />youth<br />migration<br />labor<br />multi-ethnic<br />demographics<br />the four forces of change<br />four forces_demographics<br />
    27. 27. GOVERNANCE<br />
    28. 28. DRIVERS:<br />Tribalism<br />Market drivers<br />Values<br />Interests<br />Beliefs<br />Onlinecommunities<br />Personalization<br />Polarization<br />Governance<br />Four Forces<br />© Cecily Sommers, 2011<br />
    29. 29. the four forces of change<br />
    30. 30. the four forces of change<br />
    31. 31. the four forces of change<br />31<br />
    32. 32. the four forces of change<br />32<br />
    33. 33. PART II: NEW<br />Creative problem-solving<br />
    34. 34. Pour & Stir<br />NEW<br /><ul><li>“Like That!”
    35. 35. Play
    36. 36. Time Out</li></ul>the four forces of change<br />
    37. 37. Business need<br />Futures research<br />Brand experience<br />New technologies<br />Scenario development<br />Outside experts<br />Experiential exploration<br />“Like That”<br />“Fill the Box”<br />Having it all<br />“Duh!,”“Love it!”, High Risk/Reward<br />Chunking it down<br />First Movable Piece<br />Deliverables, resource requests, Q-2-Q<br />ZONE OF DISCOVERY<br />© Cecily Sommers, 2011<br />
    38. 38. Sustainability R3. O. I.<br />Relevance<br />Revenue<br />Resilience<br />the four forces of change<br />
    39. 39. the four forces of change<br />Managing for Resilience<br />
    40. 40. the four forces of change<br />Managing for Resilience<br />“Sustainability is the pivot for where we want to go--how we want to structure our processes, our thinking, our investments. Through redesigning the way we work and live, we consider sustainability as part of everything we do. <br />We have learned one basic lesson, and that is that unless it is synonymous--business and planet--it doesn't get traction.”<br />Muhtar Kent , CEO, Coca-Cola<br />
    41. 41. the four forces of change<br />Managing for Resilience<br />Investment in investment in three core areas: 1) business planning, 2) innovation, and 3) partnerships. <br />“Live Positively” program. <br />“Water Neutral” and reducing its carbon footprint by 2015.<br />Biodegradable plant-based plastics. <br />Co-developed Truvia with Cargill<br />Partner with Greenpeace to eliminate all hydroflourocarbon gases in venting machines<br />
    42. 42. PART III: DO<br />Integrating ideas into action<br />
    43. 43.
    44. 44. the four forces of change<br />four forces<br />
    45. 45. Plan in Reverse<br />Assumptions, Outcomes, Resources<br /><ul><li>10 Years
    46. 46. 5 years
    47. 47. 2 years
    48. 48. 1 year
    49. 49. 6 months
    50. 50. 3 months…</li></ul>the four forces of change<br />the antidote<br />
    51. 51. the four forces of change<br />four forces<br />
    52. 52. best time<br />“Theto plant a tree wasago.”<br />20 years<br />Chinese Proverb<br />
    53. 53.
    54. 54. CHANGE AGENT<br />the four forces of change<br />
    55. 55. thankyou!<br />@cecilysommers<br />cecily@bluedogdesign.com<br />the four forces of change<br />www.bluedogdesign.com<br />

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