2.markets.2013
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2.markets.2013 2.markets.2013 Presentation Transcript

  • OTHER INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS involved in economy and trade 30/09/13 1 ?
  • The World Trade Organization (WTO) GATT 1947 -> WTO 1995, OMC in French 30/09/13 2
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (1961) 30/09/13 3 OECD member states (2008) Original members are in dark blue
  • G 8 (G 6 1973, G7 1976) 30/09/13 4 Dark green: countries which belong to the G 8 (Group of Eight). Blue : countries which do not but are represented by the EU Yellow: O 5 (Outreach five) countries
  • The G 20 of industrial nations 30/09/13 5 The G20 of industrial nations is an economic forum of 20 countries, formed in 1999 (G8 + Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, India, Italy, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey + current European Union presiding country)
  • G 20 30/09/13 6 The G-20 was established to bring together systemically important industrialized and developing economies to discuss key issues in the global economy. It is an informal forum that promotes open and constructive discussion between industrial and emerging-market countries on key issues related to global economic stability. By contributing to the strengthening of the international financial architecture and providing opportunities for dialogue on national policies, international co-operation, and international financial institutions, the G-20 helps to support growth and development across the globe. The G-20 was created as a response both to the financial crises of the late 1990s and to a growing recognition that key emerging-market countries were not adequately included in the core of global economic discussion and governance. The members of the G-20 are the finance ministers and central bank governors of 19 countries +the European Union, represented by the rotating Council presidency and the European Central Bank. To ensure quality, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the President of the World Bank, plus the chairs of the International Monetary and Financial Committee and Development Committee of the IMF and World Bank, also participate in G-20 meetings
  • Another G 20 ? 30/09/13 7 G 20 is also a trade negotiations bloc of 20 developing nations
  • NAFTA The North American Free Trade Agreement (1992) 30/09/13 8 The NAFTA Secretariat, comprised of a Canadian Section, a Mexican Section and a United States Section, is responsible for the administration of the dispute settlement provisions of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
  • The APEC 30/09/13 9 21 countries representing approximately (2007): - 49% of world trade - 55% of world GDP - 49% of world trade http://www.apec.org http://travel.apec.org/australia-short-term-business-visit.html
  • Global Supply Chain Operation in the APEC Region: Case Study of the Electrical and Electronics Industry 30/09/13 10 PUBLICATION NUMBER: APEC#213-SE-01.12 PUBLISHED DATE: July 2013 PAGES: 98 TYPE OF PUBLICATION: Reports PUBLICATIONS UNDER: APEC Policy Support Unit ACCESSED: 1273 This study aims to provide a detailed understanding of current electrical and electronics (E&E) industry supply chain operations, strategies, and challenges, and suggest approaches APEC might adopt to make these supply chains and others more efficient and better contribute to economic integration in the region. Content Summary • Executive Summary • Introduction • Chapter 1: Overall characteristics of global supply chains for the electronics industry • Chapter 2: Case Studies Three electronic Supply chain examples • Chapter 3: Factors impacting supply chain strategy • Chapter 4: Local impact of supply chain participation • Chapter 5: Government Initiatives • Chapter 6: Trends and recommendations • Appendix
  • 30/09/13 11
  • 30/09/13 12
  • III. ANGLO-SAXON COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD ECONOMY 30/09/13 13 Source: CIA World Factbook 2013 – 2013 estimates Population per zone/country CIA Factbook 2013) World: 7 B. China 1,350; India 1,220 United States 317; Indonesia 251; Brazil 201; Pakistan 193; Nigeria 174; Bangladesh 164; Russia 142; Japan 127 UK 63,5 M., South Africa: 49 M., Canada: 34,5 Ireland: 5 M. New Zealand: 4,5 Puerto Rico 3,7 France: 66 M. EU: about 510 000 Anglosphere: about 490 000
  • ECONOMIC WEIGHT COUNTRY COMPARISON : GDP (PURCHASING POWER PARITY) « This entry gives the gross domestic product (GDP) or value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year. A nation's GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates is the sum value of all goods and services produced in the country valued at prices prevailing in the United States in the year noted. This is the measure most economists prefer when looking at per-capita welfare and when comparing living conditions or use of resources across countries. The measure is difficult to compute, as a US dollar value has to be assigned to all goods and services in the country regardless of whether these goods and services have a direct equivalent in the United States (for example, the value of an ox-cart or non-US military equipment); as a result, PPP estimates for some countries are based on a small and sometimes different set of goods and services. In addition, many countries do not formally participate in the World Bank's PPP project that calculates these measures, so the resulting GDP estimates for these countries may lack precision. For many developing countries, PPP-based GDP measures are multiples of the official exchange rate (OER) measure. The differences between the OER- and PPP-denominated GDP values for most of the wealthy industrialized countries are generally much smaller. » 30/09/13 14
  • Economic weight 30/09/13 15 Source: CIA World Factbook 2008 – 2007 estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • GDP PPP 30/09/13 16 Source: CIA World Factbook 2013 – 2013 estimates Population per zone/country CIA Factbook 2013) – figures rounded Dollars World: United States: 16 UK 2,4 t.., Canada: 1.5 t. South Africa: 600 b., Ireland: 200 b.. New Zealand: 130 b. Puerto Rico 65 b. Anglosphere: around 21 t EU: 16 t. (France: 2.3 t.)
  • source: CIA Factbook 2009, 2008 estimate 30/09/13 17
  • source: CIA Factbook 2011, 2010 estimates and 2010, 2009 estimate https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html 30/09/13 18
  • source: CIA Factbook 2012, 2011 estimates 30/09/13 19
  • 30/09/13 20
  • The anglo-saxon model of capitalism 30/09/13 21 1. The philosophical origins 2. Free trade & competition 3. Investment 4. Flexible labour markets 5. Social costs and the question of the minimum wage 6. Welfare 7. Regulation 8. A non-interventionist State
  • CIA Factbook 30/09/13 22 The international financial crisis of 2008-09 led to the first downturn in global output since 1946 and presented the world with a major new challenge: determining what mix of fiscal and monetary policies to follow to restore growth and jobs, while keeping inflation and debt under control. Financial stabilization and stimulus programs that started in 2009-11, combined with lower tax revenues in 2009-10, required most countries to run large budget deficits. Treasuries issued new public debt - totaling $7.6 trillion since 2008 - to pay for the additional expenditures. To keep interest rates low, most central banks monetized that debt, injecting large sums of money into their economies - between December 2008 and December 2012 the global money supply increased by more than 31%. Governments now are faced with the difficult task of spurring current growth and employment without saddling their economies with so much debt that they sacrifice long-term growth and financial stability. And when economic activity picks up, central banks will confront the difficult task of containing inflation without raising interest rates so high they snuff out further growth. Fiscal and monetary data for 2012 are currently available for 180 countries, which together account for 98.5% of World GDP. Of the 180 countries, 85 pursued unequivocally expansionary policies, boosting government spending while also expanding their money supply relatively rapidly - faster than the world average of 4.1%; 37 followed restrictive fiscal and monetary policies, reducing government spending and holding money growth to less than the 4.1% average; and the remaining 58 followed a mix of counterbalancing fiscal and monetary policies, either reducing government spending while accelerating money growth, or boosting spending while curtailing money growth.
  • 30/09/13 23 In 2012, fiscal policy shifted towards greater austerity for a majority of the countries. In an attempt to attack their deficit and debt problems head-on, nearly 5 out of 6 countries slowed the rate of growth of government spending, and 1 in 3 countries actually lowered the level of their expenditures. The global growth rate for government expenditures dropped from 5.9% in 2010 and 10.1% in 2011, to just 1.4% in 2012. Roughly 1 out of 3 central banks tightened monetary policy, decelerating the rate of growth of their money supply, and about 1 out of 7 actually withdrew money from circulation. Growth of the global money supply, as measured by the narrowly defined M1, slowed from 8.7% in 2009 and 10.4% in 2010 to 5.2% in 2011 and 4.1% in 2012. These policy choices significantly affected economic performance. The global budget deficit narrowed to roughly $2.7 trillion in 2012, or 3.8% of World GDP. But growth of the world economy slipped from 5.1% in 2010 and 3.7% in 2011, to just 3.1% in 2012. And world unemployment increased to 9.2%. Countries with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies achieved significantly higher rates of growth, lower unemployment, higher growth of tax revenues, and greater success reducing the public debt burden than those countries that chose contractionary policies. In 2012, the 85 countries that followed a pro-growth approach achieved a median GDP growth rate of 4.9%, compared to just 0.8% for the 37 countries with restrictive fiscal and monetary policies, a difference of more than 4 percentage points. Among the 85, China grew 7.8%, Indonesia 6.0%, Mexico 4.0%, Russia 3.4%, Turkey 3.0%, the United States 2.2%, and Canada 1.9%, while among the 37, Brazil grew 1.3%, Germany 0.7%, France 0.1%, Belgium -0.2%, Netherlands -0.5%, Spain -1.4%, and Italy -2.3%. The median unemployment rate for the 37 countries jumped to 11.5%, while the median for the pro-growth countries held steady at 7.3%.
  • /… 30/09/13 24 Faster GDP growth and lower unemployment rates translated into increased tax revenues and a lower debt burden. Revenues for the 85 expansionary countries grew at a median rate of 10.8%, whereas tax revenues fell at a median rate of 6.2% for the 37 countries that chose austere economic policies. Budget balances improved for about half of the 37, but, for most, debt grew faster than GDP, and the median level of their public debt as a share of GDP increased 2.5 percentage points, to 57.8%. On the other hand, budget balances deteriorated for most of the 85 pro-growth countries, but GDP growth outpaced increases in debt, and the median level of public debt as a share of GDP actually declined slightly (-0.1 percentage points). The world recession has suppressed inflation rates - world inflation declined 1.0 percentage point in 2012 to about 4.0%. At the same time, the median inflation rate for the 85 pro-growth countries, at 5.5%, was 2.5 percentage points higher than that for the countries that followed more austere fiscal and monetary policies. Overall, the latter countries also improved their current account balances by shedding imports; as a result, current account balances deteriorated for most of the countries that pursued pro-growth policies. Slower growth of world income reduced import demand and crude oil prices fell. Consequently, the dollar value of world trade grew just 1% in 2012, compared with 18% in 2011.
  • 30/09/13 25 Beyond the current global slowdown, the world faces several long-standing economic challenges. The addition of 80 million people each year to an already overcrowded globe is exacerbating the problems of pollution, waste-disposal, epidemics, water-shortages, famine, over-fishing of oceans, deforestation, desertification, and depletion of non-renewable resources. The nation-state, as a bedrock economic-political institution, is steadily losing control over international flows of people, goods, services, funds, and technology. The introduction of the euro as the common currency of much of Western Europe in January 1999, while paving the way for an integrated economic powerhouse, has created economic risks because the participating nations have varying income levels and growth rates, and hence, require a different mix of monetary and fiscal policies. Governments, especially in Western Europe, face the difficult political problem of channeling resources away from welfare programs in order to increase investment and strengthen incentives to seek employment. Because of their own internal problems and priorities, the industrialized countries are unable to devote sufficient resources to deal effectively with the poorer areas of the world, which, at least from an economic point of view, are becoming further marginalized. The terrorist attacks on the US on 11 September 2001 accentuated a growing risk to global prosperity - the diversion of resources away from capital investments to counter-terrorist programs. Despite these vexing problems, the world economy also shows great promise. Technology has made possible further advances in a wide range of fields, from agriculture, to medicine, alternative energy, metallurgy, and transportation. Improved global communications have greatly reduced the costs of international trade, helping the world gain from the international division of labor, raise living standards, and reduce income disparities among nations. Much of the resilience of the world economy in the aftermath of the financial crisis resulted from government and central bank leaders around the globe working in concert to stem the financial onslaught, knowing well the lessons of past economic failures.