Geopolitical consecuences of the Greek Crisis

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Greek crisis is mainly economic in nature, but the geopolitical dimensions should not be underestimated. Following the analys of Thanos Dokos in ELIAMEP, if Greece fails to recover, it may well be forced to leave the Eurozone with a huge economic and political impact for the Euro and the EU. He argues there will be severe repercussions for regional stability in Southeastern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the EU‘s and NATO‘s ability to play a substantial role in those regions.

Allowing Greece to become a weak or even a semi-failed state will have an impact well beyond its immediate borders. On many issues, the ability of Greece to make a positive contribution should no longer be taken for granted.

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Geopolitical consecuences of the Greek Crisis

  1. 1. Hugo Cuello (cdhugo@hotmail.com)Hugo Cuello (cdhugo@hotmail.com) May 2012May 2012 The GeopoliticalThe Geopolitical ConsecuencesConsecuences of the Greekof the Greek CrisisCrisis
  2. 2.  “Economic and social turbulence on Europe’s southern periphery will constitute a geopolitical risk.” Yannos Papantoniou. Former Economy and Finance Minister of Greece. Project Syndicate  “An inadequate response to the economic crisis has now resulted in a political crisis, and it is imperative that we learn from this failure. That is only way to avoid a new transformation of the political crisis into a geopolitical crisis” George Prevelakis. Professor of Geopolitics at the University Pantheon-Sorbonne. Le Figaro
  3. 3. Dimensions of the Greek Crisis  Economic – Political – Geopolitical  Foreign Policy as a populist tool  Neighbors cannot remain indiferent  The EU neither “Greece should start seeking new, fruitful alliances with giants like Russia and China, which could be proved unexpectedly beneficial in the future”
  4. 4. What could happen?(By Thanos Dokos in “Who Lost Greece? The Geopolitical Consequences of the Greek Crisis”)  3 posible escenarios to predict the evolution of Greece’s foreign policy Stormy Eurozone EU Cloudy Eurozone EU Sunny Eurozone EU
  5. 5. TurkeyTurkey Relations turn to the 90s Frequent incidents in the Aegean. NATO paralyzed No progress. Some economic relations Erratic and unstable political relations Normalization of relations Improved economic relations CyprusCyprus Tension rises as harden their positions Status quo continues Greece no longer player Win-win approach. The problem is solved FYROMFYROM Harden positions. People frustrated on others behavior Diplomatic stalemate continues. No compromises EU and US pressure for a compromise solution AlbaniaAlbania Expulsion of Albanian workers Discrimination and territorial disputes Bilateral relations fluctuate. Remains a negative atmosphere because of nationalism Resolve problems of delimitation and workers. Support EU membership BalkansBalkans Marginalized. Shrink economic presence. Mantains economic presence but lack of real influence because of ec. and pol. weakness Leadership. Stabilizing factor. Active bloc in the EU
  6. 6. EnergyEnergy Not oil/gas piperline in Greece territory. Problems with Turkey Dependance on Iran Enlarges slightly its footprint on the energy map (Southern Corridor) Some explotations in Greek territory Becomes an energy hub (South Stream, deposits on Crete) Greek-owned ships transport MigrationMigration Unable to controll illegal inmigration. Racism, xenophobia Radicalization of inmigrants comm. Limited progress controlling inmigration Situation remains problematic Improves inmigrat reception systems FRONTEX support and Turkish cooperation DomesticDomestic SecuritySecurity Unstable and unsafe country Hard criminality, social tension, political violence etc. Forzed to leave Schengen Agreement Serious challenges to maintain law and order Reform of the security sector Cooperation at the European level TerrorismTerrorism Domestic terrorism out of control Radical Islamist cells? Domestic terrorism still serious problem Desestabilization, fragility Political violence under control Economy improves
  7. 7. Questions  Is any of these scenarios posible?  What would mean for the European influence and prestige to take Greece out of the EU? Hugo Cuello for the University of Copenhagen

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