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10 elections and campaigns 2 classes
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  • 1. Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns
  • 2. Elections: Promote citizenship Hold government accountable Uphold democratic values: Popular Sovereignty, Majority Rule, Political Equality Popular Sovereignty: Laws derive indirectly-directly from citizens.
  • 3. EVOLUTION OF PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATING CONTESTS Caucuses Party leaders choose candidates write platforms Pre-revolutionary politics through 1820s “smoke filled rooms”
  • 4. Not very representative of the people
  • 5. Party Conventions Rectify caucus problems Voters have indirect role Choose delegates who choose nominee and… …decide party platform Yet bosses still in control
  • 6. Primary Elections Direct primary: WI first adopted, 1905 People vote directly for nominee Two Most Common Types… ~ Open Primary Crossover voting; Parties take advantage of process ~ Closed Primary Registration determines vote
  • 7. Other Types… ~ Blanket primary Voters pick one candidate for each office. No party lines. ~ Runoff primary No candidate wins a majority. Runoff between two top vote getters.
  • 8. Washington State Grange v. Washington State Republican Party (2008): Supreme Court ruled Initiative 872 creating nonpartisan blanket primary was constitutional.
  • 9. NOMINATING CANDIDATES FOR CONGRESS Plurality Most congressional candidates win nomination by a plurality
  • 10. Multi-candidate race for party nomination for Congress, NY’s 23rd CD Sydney – 30% Nick – 10% Lindsey – 40% Colleen – 20% Lindsey wins plurality (most votes under 51%)
  • 11. Majority Vote: Some states require majority vote If no majority, two top vote getters enter a run-off primary
  • 12. Who Wants to Be a Candidate? • Two categories of candidates — self-starters and the recruited
  • 13. American nominating process generally controlled by state laws favoring two major parties. Most European nations‟ political parties choose candidates; primaries are not held.
  • 14. Women Running for Congress, and winning! 16
  • 15. PICKING A VP RUNNING MATE Do no harm Carry home state or other sizeable state Prior office experience to complement nominee — domestic policy vs. foreign VP reunites party - from a different faction
  • 16. Two moderates can reinforce appeal to independents Regional balance Appear presidential
  • 17. Symbolic choice Personal chemistry
  • 18. Twenty-First Century Campaigns Before television campaigning was personal Today less personal; more media driven Today less party-centered, more candidate-centered
  • 19. Some think Clinton‟s surprise appearance on The Arsenio Hall Show helped build support among young voters. © 2000 AP/Wide World Photos 21
  • 20. 2004 elections appearances: John Kerry, Laura Bush, John Edwards, John McCain on The Tonight Show.
  • 21. During 2000 presidential campaign, George W. Bush appeared on Oprah‟s show. Appearance received extensive news coverage. 23
  • 22. Today, close to 40% of voters identify themselves as independent, not party-affiliated.
  • 23. TARGETING INDEPENDENT VOTERS Canvassing: find where voters stand on issues Determine who‟s… Hard Left/Soft Left/Swing Vote/Soft Right/Hard Right Undecided or swing voters receive most attention
  • 24. Strategy of Winning – Money!! Without money cannot communicate message or develop visibility
  • 25. © Kevin Lamarque/Reuters/Corbis
  • 26. Financing the Campaign Buckley v. Valeo 1971 act placed limits on how much money a candidate could spend on campaign. 1976, Supreme Court overruled provision as unconstitutional.
  • 27. Political Action Committees (PACS) Interest groups raise and give campaign donations via… Soft money: unregulated campaign contributions. Labor unions first to establish; businesses followed suit
  • 28. Type of PACs Reflect Dominance of Business in American Politics 32
  • 29. PAC Contributions to Congressional Candidates, 1991–2006 33
  • 30. The Top 20 Contributors to Federal Candidates, 2005–2006 Cycle 34
  • 31. Soft Money Raised by Political Parties, 1993–2002 35
  • 32. Is Reform Possible? • Free Media Time • Public Financing
  • 33. Questions for Critical Thinking • Should House members be elected every two years, or does another term of office make more sense? • Why do Congressional incumbents generally not face primary challenges? Who keeps them out? • Should federal and statewide campaigns be publicly financed just as presidential campaigns are now?
  • 34. End of Lesson
  • 35. Comparing American and European Elections
  • 36. America: • Nomination an individual effort • Parties largest role to provide candidates with label Europe: • Party leaders determine nomination • Election contests between parties, not individuals
  • 37. Voting Issues • Vote Fraud – Failure to purge electoral rolls of deceased or voters who have moved – Some voting locales purged legitimate voters from rolls by mistake
  • 38. 42
  • 39. Voter Participation 44
  • 40. And yet… Voter participation in U.S. is low compared with other countries.
  • 41. Turn-out rate lower during non presidential cycles Turnout rate even lower for local elections Rose slightly in „08, to 56.8% of eligible voters from 55.3% in „04
  • 42. 47
  • 43. 48
  • 44. Youth Vote
  • 45. Has Youth Vote Been Dumbed Down?
  • 46. 2008 2012?
  • 47. ~ 2 million more young people voted for president in „08 than „04 Percent of voters under 30: 51% 3rd highest showing of young voters (22 million) topped only by 1992 and 1972 elections. 3rd consecutive election where youth vote increased
  • 48. Black youth vote tremendously high… more voted in D.C. than older residents: ~ 76% of D.C. voters age 18 to 29 voted ~ 73.4% of voters age 30 and older did so.
  • 49. YOUTH VOTE and SOCIAL MEDIA Young Con Anthem Youth using technology to express views Mixing Religion and Politics Critical of both major parties Issue oriented activists Social / Fiscal conservatives Speak for most young people 18 to 24?
  • 50. Young people with more education more likely to vote Higher education influences voting Some College? -- more likely to vote than those with only H.S. diplomas Why?
  • 51. Young women vote more than young men After „72 election, when men and women voted in equal numbers: - Past 30 years gap in pres. elections widened - 1992: 51% of women (18-24) voted while only 46% of men did -2004: difference widened to 6% Why?
  • 52. Increasing Youth Vote • Easier registration process? • Weekend voting? • National holiday? • More interesting candidates? • More perceived stakes in outcome? • Compulsory voting laws? • Internet voting?
  • 53. Should Everyone Vote… especially all youth? Vote or Die: Stossel in the Classroom
  • 54. Questions for Critical Thinking Thomas Jefferson stated that education of public was essential to American republic. Public must have adequate information about potential public officials before voting. What might Jefferson say about today’s campaigns and modern public?
  • 55. Factors Influencing Who Votes 15th Amendment (1870): Reconstruction Amendment, lifted voting restrictions based on race, color or previous condition of servitude. Women were not granted right to vote nationally until ratification of 19th Amendment in 1920. However, women were eligible to vote in some states before this date.
  • 56. Other Factors… • • • • Age Education Minority status Income
  • 57. 64
  • 58. Why People Do Not Vote • Uninformative media coverage • Negative campaigning • Ignorance effect 65
  • 59. Effort to improve voter turnout… National Voter Registration Act of 1993 (Motor Voter) made it easier to vote and maintain eligible registration, although its long -term efficacy has been questioned.
  • 60. End of Lesson