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Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp
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Managing future agricultural production in a variable and changing climate - Steven Crimp

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  • Generated from a series of farmer workshops in WA, VIC and QLD
  • Transcript

    • 1. Managing Future Agricultural Production in a Variable and Changing Climate Steven Crimp, Alison Laing, Bronya Alexander, Phil Bowden, Kerry Bridle, Peter Brown, Howard Cox, Peter deVoil, Jan Edwards, Alex Gartmann, Peter Hayman, Mark Howden, Philip Kokic, Shaun Lisson, Neil McLeod, Jim Meckif, Barry Mudge, Uday Nidumolu, David Parsons, Brendan Power, Michael Robertson, Daniel Rodriguez, Janet Walker, Michael Wurst 17 November 2009
    • 2. Converting analysis into action Vulnerability = fn( Impacts , Adaptation ) Exposure & sensitivity adaptation options; adaptive capacity & resilience
    • 3. Effective adaptation will depend on which learning style is appropriate <ul><li>If there is both increased climate variability as well as underlying trends then broader “social networks” as well as individual re-learning will be required. </li></ul>Low climatic variability High variability Climate trend and increasing variability
    • 4. Participatory engagement key part of research <ul><li>Expert agricultural knowledge is with farmers. </li></ul><ul><li>Ensuring ‘real’ cropping systems and feasible adaptation options are evaluated. </li></ul><ul><li>Encourages solution-seeking and discussion of many potential options and supports some aspects of individual re-learning. </li></ul>
    • 5. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies
    • 6. Project partners and activity locations <ul><li>Links with previous research undertaken in NSW (blue dots). </li></ul><ul><li>Provides a national coverage allowing inter-comparison of research between regions (e.g. hotter drier places). </li></ul><ul><li>The project involves nine research partners: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CSIRO, DEEDI </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NSW DPI, BCG </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SARDI, TIAR, SFS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DAFWA, Curtin University </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Links with 14 farmer groups across Australia. </li></ul><ul><li>And involves approximately 27 case study sites (red dots). </li></ul>
    • 7. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies Group workshops and individual interviews
    • 8. Farm profit Economic risk <ul><li>Practices </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tillage & ground cover </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Moisture seeking </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Tactics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Planting rules </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Soil water thresholds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crop sequences & intensity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long fallowing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Forage conservation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Strategies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crop selection (winter / summer) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water allocations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Land allocations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cropping / grazing mix </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Farmers’ preference </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk preference & trade offs </li></ul></ul>Workshops and farmer interviews Alternative farming systems Less risk More profit More of both
    • 9. Workshops and farmer interviews
    • 10. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation
    • 11. Exploring adaptation options: modelling <ul><li>Crop yields (kg/ha) </li></ul><ul><li>Crop N requirements & intake at different crop growth stages </li></ul><ul><li>Nutrient leaching & runoff </li></ul><ul><li>Soil moisture </li></ul><ul><li>Plant growth at each growth stage </li></ul><ul><li>Gross margin estimates </li></ul><ul><li>Pasture growth and biomass removed in grazing events </li></ul><ul><li>Simulations usually run across several years (e.g. 10-50+ years) with output reported annually, usually at harvest </li></ul><ul><li>Outputs can be simulated under recent and likely future climates </li></ul>
    • 12. Observed Simulated <ul><li>Crop rotations, sowing rates, fertiliser inputs, and management </li></ul><ul><li>practices are checked and estimates of yield produced. </li></ul><ul><li>Farmers shown estimated yield information in a range of formats </li></ul>Modelling – benchmarking and validation
    • 13. 50% chance of exceeding 2.9 tha Modelling – benchmarking and validation Time Series Probabilities Mean/Median Yields as well as distributions and extremes
    • 14. Decile 3-4 Modelling – benchmarking and validation
    • 15. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation Adaption options simulated and evaluated in terms of yield and gross margins Comparisons across regions
    • 16. Testing adaptation options – individual crops and single scenarios Baseline No Change Density Fallow Residue Variety 45% 28% 12% Baseline No Change Density Fallow Residue Variety NSW Farm Victorian Farm 52% 18%
    • 17. Testing adaptation options – individual crops/multiple scenarios
    • 18. Testing adaptation options – gross margins
    • 19. Alternative scenarios for CC scenarios - Roma Testing adaptation options – whole farm profitability
    • 20. Project Design Engagement CMA’s/farmer groups, State Agencies Group workshops and individual interviews Crop modelling, benchmarking and validation Adaption options simulated and evaluated in terms of yield and gross margins Comparisons across regions Group workshops and individual interviews Project evaluation
    • 21. Conclusions <ul><li>Our research to date has shown that local expert knowledge and modelling can be combined to examine the value of adaptation from local to regional scales. </li></ul><ul><li>The regional variability of adaptation results shows clearly that local knowledge will be required to adapt to projected changes and hence combining local expert knowledge and modelling is a crucial activity. </li></ul><ul><li>The prospect of adapting to significant climate change remains challenging across all of Australia. </li></ul>
    • 22. Thank you Steven Crimp Phone: +61 2 6242 1649 or +61 428482940 Email: Steven.Crimp@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

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