Livestock production in a changing climate - Beverley Henry

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  • Technology eg GM need reconsideration especially breeding for drought resistance crops and heat stress tolerance, disease and pestsIntensification and investment in R&D Technology (eg GM crops) needs reconsideration especially for arid, semi-arid regions
  • Livestock production in a changing climate - Beverley Henry

    1. 1. Animal ThemeLivestock Production in a Changing Climate Beverley Henry, Ed Charmley, Richard Eckard, John Gaughan, Roger Hegarty isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    2. 2. Outline• Animal agriculture, resources and societies• Livestock in a changing climate – Adaptation – Mitigation• Livestock production – meeting future needs isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    3. 3. Global agricultural land resources>50% of the habitable area is at least 30% cultivatedRuminant livestock production is the only practical food production onlarge areas of dryland systems – occupies 1/3 of global land surface. isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    4. 4. Land use for animal agriculture in Australia Major agricultural land use in Australia 6000 400 Area grazin/non-farm use (000 sq km) Area wheat/crop (000 sq km) 350 5000 300 4000 250 3000 200 Land use in Australia 2005-06 150 Total area 7,687,147 sq km 2000 Dryland Other 100 Production cropping, land 1000 forestry horticulture use Water 50 1% 3% 1% 2% 0 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 1984 1986 1988 2008Improved pastures 10% Conservation and Non-crop Non-f arm Wheat Other crops protected 21% Minimal use 16% Grazing natural vegetation 46% isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    5. 5. Livestock numbers in Australia 120,000 100,000 Number (,000) 80,000 60,000 2001 40,000 2009 20,000 0 Milk cattle Meat cattle Sheep and Pigs Chickens Chickens lambs for meat for eggsisrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    6. 6. Climate change impacts in AustraliaSummary: The climate will be hotter and wetter or hotter and drier with higher CO2 and will most likely be more variable• Temperature rise of 0.6 -1.5 ºC by 2030; 1 - 5 ºC by 2070.• Annual rainfall change of -10 to +5% in north and -10% to 0 in south by 2030; -30 to +20% in north, central, east and -30 to +5% in south under 2070 high emission scenarios (A1FI) projected changes.• Changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events including an increase in the number of hot days;• Intensified water security problems with the frequency and extent of droughts projected to increase over most of southern Australia. Source: CSIRO and Bom 2010 isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    7. 7. Impacts of changing climate on livestock production systemsChanging climatic conditions will have four primary effects on animal agriculture:1. feed-grain, production, availability and price;2. pastures and forage crop production and quality;3. animal health, growth and reproduction; and4. disease and pest distribution. Rötter and Van de Geijn (1999) isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    8. 8. Outline• Animal agriculture, resources and societies• Livestock in a changing climate – Adaptation – Mitigation• Livestock production – meeting future needs isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    9. 9. Impacts on pork & poultry industriesMore variable climate effects: Feed shortages Reduced water availability Higher input costs – energy, grain, fertilisers, bedding.Higher temperature effects: Heat stress Summer infertilityisrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    10. 10. Pasture response to CO2 Site Pasture species DM response (%) Mutdapilly, Qld Rhodes grass 8.6 (-0.3-15.5 Barraba, NSW Native perennial grasses (C3 & C4) 17.1 (1.5-33.8) Wagga Wagga, NSW Phalaris, subterranean clover, native C4 grasses 29.0 (22.5-37.5) Ellinbank, Vic. Perennial ryegrass, white clover 23.8 (20.7-28.7) Elliott, Tas. Perennial ryegrass, white clover 25.8 (21.9-30.0)Mean annual DM production response (%) to elevated CO2 (550 ppm vs 380 ppm baseline) for thebaseline climate scenarios (1971-2000) at each site. The annual range of DM responses is in parenthesis. Cullen et al. 2009 isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    11. 11. Heat Stress impacts on productionisrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    12. 12. Adaptive management for heat stress and extreme eventsHeat stress: Un-shaded cattle seek shade fromfeeder; Late afternoon panting score = 3.5 Flooding isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    13. 13. Outline• Animal agriculture, resources and societies• Livestock in a changing climate – Adaptation – Mitigation• Livestock production – meeting future needs isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    14. 14. Australia’s agriculture emissions Residue burning 0.3% Agriculture ~ 15% emissions – 58% total methane Savanna burning – 76% total nitrous oxide 16% Agriculture soils 17% Rice cultivation Livestock 0.0% digestion 64% Manure management 4% Data for 2008, DCCEE 2010isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    15. 15. Australia’s climate change mitigation policy• Carbon price – Proposal for fixed price (?$20/ t CO2 –e) from 1 July 2012 moving to ETS in 2015-16; compensation for EITE• Renewable energy – Renewable Energy Target of 20 per cent by 2020• Carbon Farming Initiative – Land sector abatement – Kyoto and non-Kyoto offset credits – Expected start late 2011 isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    16. 16. Monogastric livestock• Manure management – Renewable energy generation technologies isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    17. 17. Ruminant production in AustraliaSource: ABS & DA Beef Sheep Beef cattle Dairy isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    18. 18. Ruminant methane emissions Distribution of ingested energy in cattle 6-12% energy loss Kurihara et al. 1999Producing 50–90kg methane/year is equivalent to 33–60 effective grazing days lost a year The dilemma: Excess H means lower performance; Methane takes H out of the rumen The challenge: Reducing methane emissions while increasing production isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    19. 19. Mitigation technologies 80 “Silver bullet” 70 60 Rumen manipulation Impact (% mitigation) 50 Genetic selection 40 Dietary additives 30 20 Best management practices 10 0 Low Impact by 2030 (Probability) HighEd Charmley 2009 isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    20. 20. Methane Mitigation OptionsShort term – Feed quality (5 – 15%) • Pasture improvement • C3 pastures, legumes – Reducing unproductive animal nos. (10 – 15%) • Extended lactation • Earlier finishing of beef • Reproduction, fertility & health – Dietary supplements • Grain (5 - 20%) • Tannins (13 - 29%) • Oils (5 - 25%) – 1% fat = 3.6% decrease CH4 /kg DMI Eckard, Grainger & de Klein 2010; Moate, Williams, Eckard et al. 2010 isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    21. 21. Methane Mitigation OptionsMedium Term – Animal Breeding (10 – 20%) • Feed conversion efficiency • Reduced methanogenesis – Plant Breeding (10-30%) • ME: CP ratio • Tannin, oils, fibreLonger-term (>40%) – Rumen manipulation/ biological control • Vaccination • Competitive or predatory microbes • Acetogenesis isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    22. 22. C fluxes in beef systems Ed Charmley CSIROisrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    23. 23. Australia’s agriculture emissions Residue burning 0.3% Agriculture ~ 15% emissions – 58% total methane Savanna – 76% total nitrous oxide burning 16% Agriculture soils 17% Rice cultivation Livestock 0.0% digestion 64% Manure management 4% Data for 2008, DCCEE 2010isrInstitute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    24. 24. Nitrous Oxide• Denitrification – Warm, water-logged soils – Excess NO3 in soil N fertiliser N2O• Nitrification Legumes – Warm, aerobic soils Excreta NH4 NO3 N2 Denitrification – Minor losses Mineralisation• Inefficient use of nitrogen – Ruminants excrete 75 to 95% of N intake • >60% lost isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    25. 25. Australian beef emissions intensity trend Greenhouse gas emissions for Australian beef production 2500000 21 20 GHG (t CO2-e/t beef CW) Beef Production (t CW) 19 18 2000000 17 16 15 1500000 14 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008  Increase of 24.3% in beef production 1990 to 2008  Increase of 16.2% in farm methane emissions 1990 to 2008  Decrease of 6.5% in methane per unit product 1990 to 2008isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    26. 26. Increasing yield – producing more from less isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    27. 27. Research prioritiesCapacity• Trained experts able to advise the farming community in: – All aspects of climate science, adaptation, mitigation and sequestration management – Climate change policiesAdaptation• Understanding direct and indirect effects of climate change on animal production systems: – Direct effects on the biology of animals – Indirect effects on disease/parasite exposure – Indirect effects on feed quality via plant and soil systems – Water and energy use efficiencies for intensive livestock production isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    28. 28. Research priorities (2)Mitigation• More efficient production of renewable energy from waste in intensive systems• Practical on-farm options to reduce emissions without negative impacts on productivity: – Improved accounting and quantification including emissions and sequestration – Cost abatement curves for a range of mitigation strategies and offsets – Whole farm modelling and LCA – Relationship between breeding for feed conversion efficiency and methane and heritability of low methanogenesis – Sustained investment in rumen microbial manipulations – Reducing urinary N loss and managing indirect N2O loss isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    29. 29. Conclusions• Livestock production will make an ongoing contribution to Australian and global food and fibre supply• Climate change will have significant impacts on animal agriculture through both the feedbase and animal response, particularly heat stress• Options do exist to reduce emissions from livestock systems and emissions intensity appears the logical measure of GHG mitigation for animal agriculture• Extensive ruminant production systems provide the only option for food production in large areas of rangelands, requiring efficient and sustainable resource management in a changing climate isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J
    30. 30. THANK YOUCo-authors Ed Charmley Richard Eckard John Gaughan Roger HegartyAcknowledgements – Karen & Ian Litchfield and Dr Steve Little for the Cool Cows Program Case Study – Dr Janine Price and colleagues of APL – Dr Brian Keating, CSIRO SAF for expert review – Australian Government Climate Change Research Program and industry partners for funding for much of the research reported isr Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

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