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Management of grazing systems to 2030 - Melissa Rebbeck

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  • 1. Management of grazing systems to 2030 Melissa Rebbeck - SARDI – Climate Applications Acknowledge – Russell Pattinson, Phil Graham, Andrew Moore, Peter Hayman
  • 2. Adaptation project
    • Grass Gro
    • Look at management, production, genetic and financial changes on livestock enterprises (50 )
    • Current base line enterprises vs base line under climate stress
    • Approaches for adaptation
    • Projections for 2030
    • Trends – eg 1995 to 2005
    • Other approaches by this project
    • Sensitivity – Warmer and drier or wetter
    • Spatial – Warmer and drier or wetter location.
    What we did
  • 3.  
  • 4. Role of livestock producers
    • Confirm base case scenarios
    • Suggest adaptations strategies
    • Confirmed which adaptations they are most likely to implement
  • 5. Today
    • Impacts of climate stress on livestock systems
    • Adaptations tested (to date)
    • What we have learned
    • What producers have learned
    • Conclusions
  • 6. Impact of climate projections on key indicators
    • Such as:
    • Supplementary feeding
    • Minimum Ground Cover
    • Pasture growth
    • Gross Margins
    • Ewe or Steer Sale weight
    • Wool Cut/ha
    • Sale times
  • 7. Lucindale Median Pasture Growth Rate – Impacts Historical vs Future (A2) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1/01/2009 15/01/2009 29/01/2009 12/02/2009 26/02/2009 12/03/2009 26/03/2009 9/04/2009 23/04/2009 7/05/2009 21/05/2009 4/06/2009 18/06/2009 2/07/2009 16/07/2009 30/07/2009 13/08/2009 27/08/2009 10/09/2009 24/09/2009 8/10/2009 22/10/2009 5/11/2009 19/11/2009 3/12/2009 17/12/2009 Kg DM/ha/d Base CCSM 3 CSIRO 3.5 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1
  • 8. Gross Margins Merino x terminal sire Lucindale 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate
  • 9. Supplementary Feed Merino x terminal sire 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time - Lucindale Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate
  • 10. Ground Cover Merino x terminal sire 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate
  • 11. March Lambing June Lambing July Lambing 5.5/ha 7/ha 8.5/ha 8.5/ha Sub Clover Phalaris
  • 12.  
  • 13. Other approaches
    • Comparing enterprises
    • Sensitivity
    • Spatial
  • 14. Comparing enterprises – dry and wet years - 2030
    • Big differences between wet & dry years
    • Sheep more resilient in dry years while cattle perform well in wet years
  • 15. Sensitivity approach
      • Surface charts – Brendan Cullen
      • See Brendan Cullen talk Thurs arvo
    Warmer Drier 1971-2000 Warmer Drier 1971-2000
  • 16. Spatial approach – dry and wet years – 2030
    • Predicted climates change even between regions
    • Can have big differences on profits
    114 5.5 +6% 0% Wet (UK) -17 2.5 +8% -13% Dry (G) Grenfell 240 5.8 +6% -2% Wet (UK) 63 3.6 +10% -17% Dry (G) Yass Profit $/ha Stocking rate Temperature Rainfall
  • 17. Impacts
      • No one future
      • Generally shorter growing seasons
      • Reduced farm Gross Margins and more variability
      • Greater Variability in growth
      • Feed available for less time
      • Perennials not growing as well in higher rainfall areas (South east SA)
  • 18. Conclusions
      • Climate change negatively impacts most enterprises
      • Value of adaptations vary across regions
      • Difficult to get over 50% pasture utilisation without grazing management
    What we learned
  • 19. What livestock producers learned
    • Minimise need for supplementary feed by;
    • Reviewing lambing and calving times (as per tests in Grass Gro)
    • Review age at first joining
    • Reviewing stocking rates
    • Reviewing sale times
    • Core Breeding and more trading
    • Flexibility to adjust numbers as season progresses
    • Match to livestock condition
  • 20. What livestock producers learned
    • Increase flexibility in their systems by;
    • Varying sale times/rules, confinement feeding, movement, more animal trading (core breeding), self replacing system, agistment
    • Better pasture utilisation by grazing management systems
    • Controlled, cell, rotational, confinement, movement
    • Larger mobs for shorter periods of time
    • Match livestock feed demand to pasture production
    • Maintain high pasture quality by adequate fertiliser
    • Maintaining pasture in growth stage 2
  • 21. Conclusions discussed
    • Total dry matter less with perennials but better feed utilisation
      • Need good grazing management
      • Lucerne not as good with less summer rain
      • Good on non wetting sands or deeper sand (Lucerne)
      • Provide protein
      • Provide ground cover
    • Annuals
      • Performed better than perennials alone in higher rainfall areas
      • Better digestibility
      • Cut excess for feed supplement
      • May incorporate more annuals and less perennials
  • 22. Further recommendations
    • Know your cost of production
    • Good labour efficiency
    • Genetic improvements will lessen the impacts
    • Maximise production /ha not necessarily numbers per ha
    • Increasing livestock trading does not remove the threat in many areas
    • Wool provides a shock absorber in poor seasons
    • Diversify across locations
    • More work on pasture species mixes
    • More analyses and workshops in all southern Australian states
  • 23.
    • Thank you
    Thank you
  • 24. Long term average rainfall - Lucindale Historical vs Future (2030 A2)
  • 25. Sale weight wether lambs Merino x terminal sire Lucindale 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate
  • 26. Emissions Scenarios Projections – A2 Scenario focus Range of outputs from 23 GCM’s
  • 27.  
  • 28. Gross Margins stocking rate x time of lambing CCSM 3.0 CSIRO 3.5 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1 70-00 01-08 Base A2 Scenarios by 2030 1970-2000 2001-2008 Echam GFDL CCSM Hadgem Stocking Rate 5.5, 7, 8.5 cont. March, June and July lamb Why we chose 1995 – 2005 This is Lucindale Merino enterprise