Elevated atmospheric CO2 and wheat production in Australia - Glenn Fitzgerald
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Elevated atmospheric CO2 and wheat production in Australia - Glenn Fitzgerald
- 1. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 and wheat production in Australia Glenn Fitzgerald, Michael Tausz, Garry O’Leary, Saman Seneweera, Sabine Posch, Robert Norton, Mahabubur Mollah, Jason Brand, Roger Armstrong, Nicole Mathers, Jo Luck, Piotr Trebicki, Wendy Griffiths, Joe Panozzo, James Nuttall, Debra Partington
- 2. Background
- 6. AGFACE Framework Crop modelling Landscape & future climate models Prediction “ what if” Agronomic responses (traits, grain quality) pre-breeders Physiology explain agronomic responses Soil understand C and N dynamics (cropping systems) Pests and diseases plant-pest dynamics Validation & confidence Includes changes to temperature and rainfall Measure Model Predict Adapt Field experiment
- 7. Australian Wheat Belt Horsham & Walpeup
- 15. Shift in Sowing Date Maintains Yields Sowing 1 July Historic Sowing 1 Aug 2050 preliminary
- 18. We invite collaborations in our AGFACE research Collaborators : La Trobe University Monash University CSIRO (pests, modelling, cultivars) USDA-ARS Harvard Medical School University of Illinois (SoyFACE) Kansas State University NZ Plant & Food Research International Plant Nutrition Institute NASA CIMMYT (Mexico) EMBRAPA (Brazil) University of Idaho University of Florida
Editor's Notes
- National Grains FACE Array (NGFA) Preamble Present day atmospheric CO 2 levels have risen from 295 ppm (1900) to 367 ppm in the year 2000 (UNEP figures). By 2100 these levels will reach between 490 and 1260 ppm (US National Climatic Data Centre estimates). Concurrent with this CO 2 rise will be rises in global temperature of up to 4.5 o C, and global shifts in rainfall amount, intensity and distribution. A naive analysis suggests that C3 plants such as wheat will increase their yields by 50% in response to the elevated CO 2 . Taken alone this could benefit wheat growers in Australia by as much as $1.5 Billion in today’s prices. However, such an analysis ignores the reality of substantial interactions in the field with temperature, water and other environment factor changes. The extent and direction of these interactions are unknown. Importantly it would be Australia’s relative benefit compared to other wheat growing regions and global demand that would determine the relative effect on Australian wheat yields and value (eg wetter and cooler regions such as Europe & Canada may benefit from elevated CO 2 , plus warmer growing seasons & higher rainfall). Some Australian wheat growing regions may suffer due to higher temperatures leading to reduced water use efficiencies plus lower water availability. To plan future actions at both local and national levels will require an ability to predict environments and grain yield responses to those environments across Australia and the world. While environment prediction is well advanced, validated predictions of grain responses do not exist in Australia.
- Link field experiments with modelling and climate prediction
- Only FACE to study so many interactions simultaneously eCO2 with interactions least studied Target 550 ppm in 2050 but now more likely in 2040-2045
- The two figures are rust spores under the microscope and stripe rust symptoms on wheat