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Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt   1  I & I NSW, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute 2  EH...
Adaptation strategies – take-home messages <ul><li>Managing sowing dates can help mitigate the impacts of climate change o...
Outline <ul><li>Background </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the NSW wheat b...
Background <ul><li>Temperature </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Is a key impact of climate change </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul...
Background <ul><li>Impacts of climate change on wheat development can be expected to vary between wheat genotypes: </li></...
Impacts of global warming on wheat phenology <ul><li>Early study based on </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Winter wheat sown on 1st M...
Research questions <ul><li>What are the impacts of climate change on wheat development  when wheat crops are planted on ot...
<ul><li>March   May  July </li></ul><ul><li>Winter  Spring  </li></ul><ul><li>Genotype  Genotype </li></ul>MODELLING IMPAC...
Modelling experiment design <ul><li>Sowing daily     </li></ul><ul><li>Two varieties :  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Winter genot...
<ul><li>Climate change scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I&I NSW’s statistical downscaled (weather generator downscaling app...
NSW wheat belt South-West (Southern plains) North-East (Northern slopes) South-East (Southern slopes) North-West (Northern...
<ul><li>Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat  in NSW wheat belt </li></ul>15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 2030...
Averaged: -20 days Averaged: -24 days Averaged: -28 days Averaged: -24 days Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat ...
Changes in days to flowering of spring wheat in NSW 7 days shorter
2030 2050 2070 2090 15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun Changes in days to flowering for winter wheat in the NSW wheat belt Cur...
Changes in days to flowering of winter wheat in NSW  7 days
Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion) , winter genotype 2030 2050 2070 2090 15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun
Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion), winter wheat sown in NSW
Changes in no. of frost days at flowering Spring wheat   Winter wheat Fewer frost days for both genotypes
Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for spring wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days in later sowing and later years So...
Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling, spring wheat sowing in NSW Reduced hot days at grain filling North West -3 -2...
Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for winter wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days in later sowing and later years in...
Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling for winter wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days at grain filling in North west...
Function of last plant-able year for spring wheat as a function of critical advanced days to flowering and  critical date ...
Summary <ul><li>DTF of spring wheat will be shorter in NSW wheat belt; the earlier the sowing the greater the shortened le...
Adaption strategies – take-home messages <ul><li>Managing sowing dates can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on ...
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Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt - De Li Liu

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Transcript of "Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt - De Li Liu"

  1. 1. Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt 1 I & I NSW, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute 2 EH Graham Centre (I&I NSW and CSU) 3 Primary Industries Innovation Centre, UNE De Li Liu 1,2 and Bob Martin 3
  2. 2. Adaptation strategies – take-home messages <ul><li>Managing sowing dates can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the next 2 – 3 decades </li></ul><ul><li>Changing varieties, i.e. limiting sowing of winter varieties in the western plains, can help mitigate the impacts of climate change further out (> 2040) </li></ul><ul><li>Breeding spring varieties that have slow developmental rates is a general adaptation strategy for climate change </li></ul>
  3. 3. Outline <ul><li>Background </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the NSW wheat belt </li></ul><ul><li>Results </li></ul><ul><li>Summary and adaptation strategies </li></ul>
  4. 4. Background <ul><li>Temperature </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Is a key impact of climate change </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Is one of the main drivers of plant development </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Wheat crop development will be affected by climate change – and already has </li></ul>
  5. 5. Background <ul><li>Impacts of climate change on wheat development can be expected to vary between wheat genotypes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Development of winter genotype can be slower due to unfavourable conditions for vernalisation requirement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Development of spring genotype can be faster in warmer climate </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Impacts of global warming on wheat phenology <ul><li>Early study based on </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Winter wheat sown on 1st May </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spring wheat sown on 20 June </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>► Results suggested that spring genotype wheat would predominate landscapes in future climate, while winter genotype would not be suitable in some current warming regions </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Research questions <ul><li>What are the impacts of climate change on wheat development when wheat crops are planted on other sowing dates? </li></ul><ul><li>Can we optimise sowing dates and/or change wheat varieties as adaptation strategies? </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>March May July </li></ul><ul><li>Winter Spring </li></ul><ul><li>Genotype Genotype </li></ul>MODELLING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT FLOWERING IN THE NSW WHEAT BELT Current wheat sowing dates in NSW
  9. 9. Modelling experiment design <ul><li>Sowing daily </li></ul><ul><li>Two varieties : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Winter genotype: Wedgetail </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spring genotype: Cunningham </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sowing dates : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Winter wheat: 15 February – 15 June </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spring wheat: 15 April – 15 August </li></ul></ul><ul><li> </li></ul>
  10. 10. <ul><li>Climate change scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>I&I NSW’s statistical downscaled (weather generator downscaling approach) GCMs data for </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>24, 20 & 21 GCMs for A1B, A2 & B1 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>downscaled daily date for 1900-2100 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1062 NSW sites (509 sites in wheat belt used for this study) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>CSIRO Mk 3.2 under A2 was used for this study </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Tool (CCAST) developed by I&I NSW was used to </li></ul><ul><ul><li>run wheat penology model with downscaled daily data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>conduct spatial analysis </li></ul></ul>Climate Data and Analytical Tool
  11. 11. NSW wheat belt South-West (Southern plains) North-East (Northern slopes) South-East (Southern slopes) North-West (Northern plains)
  12. 12. <ul><li>Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat in NSW wheat belt </li></ul>15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 2030 2050 2090 2070 Current sowing window
  13. 13. Averaged: -20 days Averaged: -24 days Averaged: -28 days Averaged: -24 days Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat sown on 15 April over NSW four regions
  14. 14. Changes in days to flowering of spring wheat in NSW 7 days shorter
  15. 15. 2030 2050 2070 2090 15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun Changes in days to flowering for winter wheat in the NSW wheat belt Current sowing window
  16. 16. Changes in days to flowering of winter wheat in NSW  7 days
  17. 17. Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion) , winter genotype 2030 2050 2070 2090 15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun
  18. 18. Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion), winter wheat sown in NSW
  19. 19. Changes in no. of frost days at flowering Spring wheat Winter wheat Fewer frost days for both genotypes
  20. 20. Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for spring wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days in later sowing and later years South East -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at flowering 2030 2050 2070 2090
  21. 21. Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling, spring wheat sowing in NSW Reduced hot days at grain filling North West -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 North East -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 South West -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 South East -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090
  22. 22. Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for winter wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days in later sowing and later years in North west
  23. 23. Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling for winter wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days at grain filling in North west after 2030
  24. 24. Function of last plant-able year for spring wheat as a function of critical advanced days to flowering and critical date for acceptable risks/yield (CDAR) North west plains South east slopes North east slopes South west plains
  25. 25. Summary <ul><li>DTF of spring wheat will be shorter in NSW wheat belt; the earlier the sowing the greater the shortened length </li></ul><ul><li>DTF of winter wheat will be shorter in current cold regions (eastern slopes) and longer in current warm regions (western plains) </li></ul><ul><li>Frost risk will be lower under projected future climate </li></ul><ul><li>Spring wheat: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Heat stress risks increase with late sowing further in the future (>2070); but there will be lower heat stress risks at grain filling due to earlier flowering </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Winter wheat: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Heat stress risks increase to critical levels at both flowering and grain filling stages in some north west regions after 2030 </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. Adaption strategies – take-home messages <ul><li>Managing sowing dates can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the next 2 – 3 decades </li></ul><ul><li>Changing varieties, i.e. limiting sowing of winter varieties in the western plains, can help mitigate the impacts of climate change further out (> 2040) </li></ul><ul><li>Breeding spring varieties that have slow developmental rates is a general adaptation strategy for climate change </li></ul>
  27. 27. Thanks!
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