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Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt - De Li Liu
 

Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt - De Li Liu

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    Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt - De Li Liu Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt - De Li Liu Presentation Transcript

    • Impact of climate change on wheat phenology in the NSW wheat belt 1 I & I NSW, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute 2 EH Graham Centre (I&I NSW and CSU) 3 Primary Industries Innovation Centre, UNE De Li Liu 1,2 and Bob Martin 3
    • Adaptation strategies – take-home messages
      • Managing sowing dates can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the next 2 – 3 decades
      • Changing varieties, i.e. limiting sowing of winter varieties in the western plains, can help mitigate the impacts of climate change further out (> 2040)
      • Breeding spring varieties that have slow developmental rates is a general adaptation strategy for climate change
    • Outline
      • Background
      • Modelling the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the NSW wheat belt
      • Results
      • Summary and adaptation strategies
    • Background
      • Temperature
          • Is a key impact of climate change
          • Is one of the main drivers of plant development
      • Wheat crop development will be affected by climate change – and already has
    • Background
      • Impacts of climate change on wheat development can be expected to vary between wheat genotypes:
        • Development of winter genotype can be slower due to unfavourable conditions for vernalisation requirement
        • Development of spring genotype can be faster in warmer climate
    • Impacts of global warming on wheat phenology
      • Early study based on
        • Winter wheat sown on 1st May
        • Spring wheat sown on 20 June
        • ► Results suggested that spring genotype wheat would predominate landscapes in future climate, while winter genotype would not be suitable in some current warming regions
    • Research questions
      • What are the impacts of climate change on wheat development when wheat crops are planted on other sowing dates?
      • Can we optimise sowing dates and/or change wheat varieties as adaptation strategies?
      • March May July
      • Winter Spring
      • Genotype Genotype
      MODELLING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT FLOWERING IN THE NSW WHEAT BELT Current wheat sowing dates in NSW
    • Modelling experiment design
      • Sowing daily
      • Two varieties :
        • Winter genotype: Wedgetail
        • Spring genotype: Cunningham
      • Sowing dates :
        • Winter wheat: 15 February – 15 June
        • Spring wheat: 15 April – 15 August
      • Climate change scenarios
        • I&I NSW’s statistical downscaled (weather generator downscaling approach) GCMs data for
          • 24, 20 & 21 GCMs for A1B, A2 & B1
          • downscaled daily date for 1900-2100
          • 1062 NSW sites (509 sites in wheat belt used for this study)
      • CSIRO Mk 3.2 under A2 was used for this study
      • Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Tool (CCAST) developed by I&I NSW was used to
        • run wheat penology model with downscaled daily data
        • conduct spatial analysis
      Climate Data and Analytical Tool
    • NSW wheat belt South-West (Southern plains) North-East (Northern slopes) South-East (Southern slopes) North-West (Northern plains)
      • Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat in NSW wheat belt
      15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 2030 2050 2090 2070 Current sowing window
    • Averaged: -20 days Averaged: -24 days Averaged: -28 days Averaged: -24 days Changes in days to flowering for spring wheat sown on 15 April over NSW four regions
    • Changes in days to flowering of spring wheat in NSW 7 days shorter
    • 2030 2050 2070 2090 15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun Changes in days to flowering for winter wheat in the NSW wheat belt Current sowing window
    • Changes in days to flowering of winter wheat in NSW  7 days
    • Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion) , winter genotype 2030 2050 2070 2090 15 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun
    • Changes in days to vernalisation inducted (completion), winter wheat sown in NSW
    • Changes in no. of frost days at flowering Spring wheat Winter wheat Fewer frost days for both genotypes
    • Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for spring wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days in later sowing and later years South East -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul 2-Aug 9-Aug 16-Aug Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at flowering 2030 2050 2070 2090
    • Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling, spring wheat sowing in NSW Reduced hot days at grain filling North West -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 North East -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 South West -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090 South East -3 -2 -1 0 12-Apr 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun Sowing dates Change in no of hot days at grain filling 2030 2050 2070 2090
    • Changes in no. of hot days at flowering for winter wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days in later sowing and later years in North west
    • Changes in no. of hot days at grain filling for winter wheat sown in NSW Increased hot days at grain filling in North west after 2030
    • Function of last plant-able year for spring wheat as a function of critical advanced days to flowering and critical date for acceptable risks/yield (CDAR) North west plains South east slopes North east slopes South west plains
    • Summary
      • DTF of spring wheat will be shorter in NSW wheat belt; the earlier the sowing the greater the shortened length
      • DTF of winter wheat will be shorter in current cold regions (eastern slopes) and longer in current warm regions (western plains)
      • Frost risk will be lower under projected future climate
      • Spring wheat:
        • Heat stress risks increase with late sowing further in the future (>2070); but there will be lower heat stress risks at grain filling due to earlier flowering
      • Winter wheat:
        • Heat stress risks increase to critical levels at both flowering and grain filling stages in some north west regions after 2030
    • Adaption strategies – take-home messages
      • Managing sowing dates can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat flowering in the next 2 – 3 decades
      • Changing varieties, i.e. limiting sowing of winter varieties in the western plains, can help mitigate the impacts of climate change further out (> 2040)
      • Breeding spring varieties that have slow developmental rates is a general adaptation strategy for climate change
    • Thanks!