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What future for Riverina irrigation communities - Craig Clifton
 

What future for Riverina irrigation communities - Craig Clifton

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    What future for Riverina irrigation communities - Craig Clifton What future for Riverina irrigation communities - Craig Clifton Presentation Transcript

    • What future for Riverina irrigationcommunities?Craig Clifton, Dhakshy Sooriyakumaran, Nick Schofield& Stephen Joyce
    • Project overviewObjective: Assist Riverina irrigation communities plan for a future with less waterThree stages:1. Current socio-economic status of region & influence of recent change2. Assess risks and opportunities associated with the future3. Plan for sustainable communities and economy
    • Project overview Stage 2: What may the future hold for Riverina irrigation communities?Three stages:1. Current socio-economic • Identify key trends & drivers status of region & of change influence of recent change • Develop scenarios to2. Assess risks and describe how the future opportunities associated may unfold with the future • Assess future risks and3. Plan for sustainable opportunities communities and economy
    • Riverina: a major Australian agricultural, food & beverage production region Production Processing Dryland Cereals $355 M $197 M cropping Rice $121 M Vegetables $67 M Fruit $199 M $127 MLivestock Citrus $75 Mgrazing Wine grapes $110 M $400 M Livestock Livestock $210 M Irrigation Meat $319 M Total $840 M $1041 M Sources: ABS data; AEC 2010 Sources: BRS data; SKM 2010
    • The community & economy are highly dependent on agricultureEmployment Economic value add Carrathool Carrathool Economic value add Carrathool Economic value add Employment (#EFT) Griffith Griffith Griffith Agriculture Food & beverage manufacturing Water Services to agriculture Other Sources: ABS data; AEC 2010; SKM, 2010
    • Key trends: the Big Dry 100% 80% 60% 40% 2001-2003 2004-2006 20% 0% 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Lachlan River HS Lachlan River GS Murrumbidgee River HS Murrumbidgee River GS 2007-2009 Rainfall anomaly Irrigation allocationsSources: BoM data, NSW Office of Water data; SKM 2010
    • Key trends: agriculture & food production $1,000 Carathool Change in value of production 2005-06 Millions $350 to 2009-10 due to drought Value of agricultural commodities $300 $800 $250 $200 Industry Change in value $600 $150 of output ($M) $100 Sheep -$10.4 $400 $50 Grains -$112.6 $- Beef cattle -$5.9 2000-01 2005-06 Other agriculture +$0.1 $200 Griffith Services to agriculture +$3.5Griffith $350 Milling products & cereal -$98.3 $- $300 2000-01 2005-06 foods $250 Intensive animal $200 Citrus, grapes & other fruit No change Dryland $150 Wine & other beverages No change Nurseries Irrig-fruit $100 Total -$223.6 Irrig-vegetables $50 Irrig-crops $- 2000-01 2005-06 2005-06 Sources: ABS data, AEC 2010; SKM 2010
    • Key trends: population & employmentPopulation The Big Dry Employment50,000 Agriculture Region 2006 Manufacturing40,000 Retail trade 2001 Health services30,000 Education Griffith Construction 199620,000 All others 8,000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 6,000 Narrandera Employment losses 2005-06 to 2009-10 • Agriculture – 588 jobs 4,000 Carrathool • Other sectors (direct/indirect) – 1231 jobs 2,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
    • Drivers of changeInternational-global scale State-MDB-national scale Local-regional scale Climate:  Water:  Confidence in region’s • Natural variability • Catchment inflows & future • Human-induced change storage volumes  Entrepreneurial spirit – Health of global economy • Planning & management community leadership • Demand & price for food, • Infrastructure  Technological & fibre & minerals • Policy, politics & public management innovation • Currency exchange rates perceptions • Cost of key agricultural • Market operation in key industries inputs  Population growth in  Regional development • Trade freedom/distortion major cities investment Global population growth • Congestion  Retention & attraction of Global food supply & • Housing affordability population security  Strength of Australian Technology: mining sector • ICT  Interest rates • Food production  Government investment • Energy into regions  ICT infrastructure & services
    • Drivers of changeInternational-global scale State-MDB-national scale Local-regional scale Climate:  Water:  Confidence in region’s • Natural variability • Catchment inflows & future • Human-induced change storage volumes  Entrepreneurial spirit – Health of global economy • Planning & management community leadership • Demand & price for food, • Infrastructure  Technological & fibre & minerals • Policy, politics & public management innovation • Currency exchange rates perceptions • Cost of key agricultural • Market operation in key industries inputs  Population growth in  Regional development • Trade freedom/distortion major cities investment Global population growth • Congestion  Retention & attraction of Global food supply & • Housing affordability population security  Strength of Australian Technology: mining sector • ICT  Interest rates • Food production  Government investment • Energy into regions  ICT infrastructure & services
    • What might the future hold? Some alternative futures Better water outcomes 2010 2030Scenarios incorporate:• Critical uncertainties – climate & water policy• Other regional-global scale Worse water change drivers outcomes• ShocksPlausibility tested with stakeholders Scenarios preceded Guide to MDBP
    • Risks and opportunitiesKey risks Key opportunities• A quick step back into Big Dry – • Adapted, more efficient agriculture like conditions • Increase regional value add to• Run-away water trade from agriculture region • Biofuels & solar energy• MDBP implements large • Education, training & health care reduction in SDL • Affordability options for newPotential implications: industries and residents • Tourism• Rapid population decline• Workforce contraction Options mostly not unique to Riverina• Divestment by businesses region• Smaller local governments become unviable
    • Conclusions:What future for Riverina irrigation communities?• The region will remain highly dependent on agriculture, including irrigated agriculture• High reliability Murrumbidgee high security water & groundwater critical to region’s future• The region will continue to track agriculture’s fortunes and misfortunes• Griffith will continue to growth while the smaller towns & LGAs continue to decline• The region will continue to invest in economic diversification - with limited success particularly away from Griffith & Leeton
    • What future for Riverina irrigation communities?Some critical uncertainties:• Murray-Darling Basin Plan• Future climate – next few years & long-term• The demand & price for the region’s agricultural & food products• Confidence in the region’s future• Community leadership & entrepreneurial spiritA future with less water is not where the Riverina irrigationcommunities want to be