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Climate change and Australian farming systems - Peter Hayman, SARDI
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Climate change and Australian farming systems - Peter Hayman, SARDI

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  • 1. Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga
  • 2. Climate Change and Farming Systems
    • High level of interest from contributed papers & posters to CCRSPI conference
    • Survey for Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network (PIARN)
    • GRDC review of grains RD&E – referred to “farming systems” 94 times
  • 3. The study of farming systems in Australia has benefited from…
    • Hard systems thinking from ecology
    • Hard systems thinking from management science and operations research
    • Soft systems thinking from sociology
  • 4. Different views of climate change and farming systems
    • a biophysical ecosystem processing materials,
    • a business or production system generating income,
    • a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.
  • 5. Nemani et al 2003 Science (6 June 03) Climate is central to understanding of natural and managed systems
  • 6. Ryan et al 2010
  • 7. Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.
  • 8.  
  • 9. Research on farming systems
    • Level of study (farming systems)
  • 10. Passioura 1979
    • Meaning n+1 (Landscapes & communities)
    • Level of study (farming systems)
    • Explanation n-1 (crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)
  • 11. Minnipa Orroroo Increasing farm size changing rural communities
  • 12.  
  • 13. Passioura 1979
    • Meaning (Landscapes & communities)
    • Level of study ( farming systems )
    • Explanation (crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)
  • 14. Five Questions at the farming systems level
    • 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?
    • 2) What are the impacts of these changes?
    • 3) What can be done to adapt ?
    • 4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions
    • 5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm
    CCRSPI 2008
  • 15. 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?
    • Predictions are not instructions that people simply follow to make better decisions. They are pieces of an intricate puzzle that may sometimes contribute to improved decisions. Daniel Sarewitz. Nature 463: 2010
    • Learn from failure of predicting earthquakes (robust buildings) as well as success of predicting cyclones.
  • 16.  
  • 17. Lyndoch Nurioopta Eden Valley N
  • 18. Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline
  • 19.  
  • 20. April to October rainfall
  • 21. April to October rainfall
  • 22. April to October rainfall
  • 23.  
  • 24. Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline Temporal analogues – eg drought Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site
  • 25. Ryan et al 2010
  • 26. Five Questions at the farming systems level
    • 2) What are the impacts of these changes?
    • The same climate state can have very different impacts.
    • Light soils vs heavy soils, sheep vs livestock, olives vs citrus.
  • 27. Garnault: costs of climate change
    • Type 1 – Direct costs –lower crop yield
    • Type 2 – Indirect costs (eg tourism) – impact of dropping break crops
    • Type 3 – Risk & insurance costs – not sowing due to fear of heat event
    • Type 4 – Non market impacts – (eg species loss), changes to rural communities, food sovereignty.
  • 28. Five Questions at the farming systems level
    • 3) What can be done to adapt ?
    • Martin and Parry (1988) – stop just doing impact studies
    • Beyond the damage report
    • Recognise just how adaptive Australian agriculture – especially as measured by decades
  • 29. The challenge of “additionality” in adaptation.
  • 30. Howden et al 2010
  • 31. Sep 2000
  • 32. Sep 2002
  • 33. Sep 2006
  • 34. Five Questions at the farming systems level
    • 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?
    • 2) What are the impacts of these changes?
    • 3) What can be done to adapt ?
    • 4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions
    • 5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm
  • 35. Garnaut 2010 ( Aust J Ag & Res Ec )
    • Agriculture will suffer from unmitigated climate change
    • like the Australian economy as a whole, but more so, agriculture would be likely to face significant costs that were not balanced by benefits in the early stages of an Australian mitigation regime.
  • 36. Different views of climate change and farming systems
    • a biophysical ecosystem processing materials,
    • a business or production system generating income,
    • a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.
  • 37. What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ? What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?
  • 38. Source: Bureau of Meteorology
  • 39. Weather – Season – Climate change
    • We cannot reliably remember climate because memory generates meaning—not statistics…. our lives lurch between expectation and event, between the idea of climate and the reality of weather. Sherratt (2005)
  • 40.